Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The US Department of Defense is currently pursuing the most comprehensive transformation of its forces since the early years of WWII. This transformation is a holistic approach to update both the equipment that the forces will fight its conflicts with and the way in which they will fight. This transformation relies heavily on fully networked air, ground and space based platforms. While many experts agree that in the course of the next 10 years communications equipment will emerge to support the networking of these systems, there remains much uncertainty on how operations will be effected if the technology does not mature enough to meet expectations. This research shows that even a 25 percent degradation in communications range could pose significant challenges for this Future Force. Additionally, even small delays (latencies greater than one minute) and constraints on network throughput can increase the Future Force casualties and the duration of battle. While the end result in all analysis shows that the Future Force is a superior element with the same battle end state-victory, the cost of that victory depends significantly on effective communications. / Captain, United States Army

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / Recent insurgent tactics during Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have demonstrated that coalition logistical convoys are vulnerable targets. This thesis examines the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) used in convoy operations in an attempt to identify the critical factors that lead to mission success. A ground convoy operation scenario is created in the agentbased model (ABM) Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA). The scenario models a generic logistical convoy consisting of security vehicles, logistical vehicles, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and an enemy ambushing force. The convoy travels along a main supply route (MSR) where it is ambushed by a small insurgent force. We use military experience, judgment and exploratory simulation runs to identify 11 critical factors within the created scenario. The data farming process and Latin Hypercube (LHC) experimental design technique are used to thoroughly examine the 11 factors. Using the 11 factors 516 design points are created and data farmed over to produce 25,800 observations. Additive multiple linear regression is used to fit a model to the 25,800 observations. From the created scenario it is concluded that: convoy mission success may be determined by only a few factors; the actions of logistical vehicles are more critical than those of security vehicles; UAVs provide a statistically significant advantage; and ABMs coupled with LHCs and data farming are valuable tools for understanding complex problems. / Captain, United States Marine Corps