Presale of residential units refers to putting the units on sale before they are completed. The value of presale to the developer comes from the flexibility of timing the presale launch so as to optimize the expected payoff. We model the developer's optimal launch timing as a real option, and the purchaser's series of presale payments with the flexibility to default as compound options. By assuming a stochastic property price process, we derive model frameworks that a risk-averse developer should adopt in launching the presale under single and multiple payment schemes. The frameworks solve the optimal conditions, contract structures, and prices for the launch. We then extend the model to optimize developers' payoffs in monopolistic and imperfect market equilibria. Finally, by assuming a jump-diffusion demand shock process and based on game theoretic approach, we derive sub-game Nash equilibrium optimal strategies that determine when and at what price developers should launch for presale with stochastic or deterministic rare market events. All the models thus derived are subject to probabilities of purchaser defaults, which will happen if the contract prices are too high when compared to market prices. Our model frameworks confirm that the launch option values increase with increases in price growth rates and variances, but decrease in risk-free rates. Furthermore, developers tend to delay the launch when good events are anticipated, while launching presale earlier at lower prices in times of expected bad events. The equilibrium strategies also provide an alternative explanation to oversupply in property markets. We further illustrate effects of rare events on presale launching strategies through government intervention (particularly public housing and housing subsidies) and output flow uncertainty in competitive equilibrium. Our general optimal strategic models are robust in a few aspects. First, we include the time factor that is crucial for some real options. Second, only slight adjustments are required to cope with market changes, or jumps. Finally, the strategies thus derived can be extensively and flexibly applied to other real options which incur multi-stage contingent payoffs, and whose price processes are characterized by stochastic jump-diffusion process. / Lai Neng. / "October 2000." / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 62-01, Section: A, page: 0270. / Supervisor: Ko Wang. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 184-192). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / School code: 1307.

Concern over the apparent disparity between the farm use value and current market value of property in agricultural areas continues to remain a source of concern in many areas. This concern has intensified in recent years, particularly in those agricultural areas situated near urban centers and recreational areas. The main thrust of the study was directed toward determining the relationship between net real estate income per acre and sale price pier acres of properties in selected agricultural areas of Oregon. Three areas, ostensibly called agricultural areas, were selected for analysis. The areas, as classified, included a basic agricultural production area (dry land grain area in northcentral Oregon), an urban-recreation influenced area (Douglas County in southwestern Oregon bordered by the Pacific Ocean on the west and the Umpqua National Forest on the east) and an urban influenced area (Marion County in the populous and productive Willamette Valley in northwestern Oregon). In addition to determining the influence of net real estate income on property prices, the influence of other property characteristics on property prices was analyzed in each area. The other property characteristics included: year of sale, number of acres in sale, assessed value of buildings per acre, miles to nearest paved road, and miles to nearest town of at least 1,000 population. Simple and multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the influence of particular property characteristics on sale price per acre. The same six-variable model was used in each area to test whether partial regression coefficient values on corresponding variables differed significantly among areas. Overlapping of 95 percent confidence intervals around corresponding partial regression coefficient values among areas was observed for all independent variables except net real estate income per acre. The income variable was an important determinant of sale price per acre only for grain area and Douglas County sales. However, the partial regression coefficient value of 49.71 in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County implies an approximate 2.0 percent capitalization rate compared to a coefficient value of 17.11 and a 5.8 percent implied capitalization rate in the grain area. Year of sale was an important influence on sale price per acre in areas influenced more strongly by nonagricultural influences, i.e., Douglas and Marion Counties, as evidenced both by the level of significance of the coefficient value and the value of the coefficient in each of these areas. The annual rate of property price appreciation at the mean was 14.3 percent in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County and 12.1 percent in urban influenced Marion County. While not significantly different from zero, the rate of price change was slightly negative in the grain area. Conclusions from the study were (1) that there is a significant difference in the influence of net real estate income and other property characteristics on prices of properties among selected agricultural areas of Oregon, (2) that the nature and degree of relationship between prices oi property sales analyzed and property characteristics of these sales varied considerably within each agricultural area selected for analysis, but especially in the urban-recreation and urban influenced areas, and (3) that in spite of relatively low mean rates of return in all three areas studied, a disparity between the farm use value and current market value of land was found to exist only in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County. Implication of these results are that variously influenced agricultural areas do exist, and that motives for and sources of satisfaction from ownership of property in agricultural areas vary within and among areas. / Graduation date: 1972

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Housing Management / Master / Master of Housing Management

published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

The Best PhD Thesis in the Faculties of Architecture, Arts, Business & Economics, Education, Law and Social Sciences (University of Hong Kong), Li Ka Shing Prize, 2006-2007. / published_or_final_version / abstract / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Shui, Chi Wai. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2011. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 60-61). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.ii / 摘要 --- p.iii / Acknowledgements --- p.iv / Chapter Section 1: --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Section 2: --- Data --- p.4 / Chapter Section 3: --- Models and Methodology --- p.7 / Chapter 3.1 --- Specific Model --- p.7 / Chapter 3.2 --- Comparative Model --- p.10 / Chapter 3.3 --- Estimation of the Household Time Value and Household Shadow Wage --- p.11 / Chapter Section 4: --- Results --- p.15 / Chapter 4.1 --- Results of the Specific Model --- p.15 / Chapter 4.2 --- Results of the Comparative Model --- p.18 / Chapter Section 5: --- Conclusion --- p.23 / Appendix: --- p.24 / References: --- p.60

The rural land market in Australia is a very complex property market. This complexity is not limited to the volatility of the returns in the rural land market, but also those factors that influence the change inland prices within specific rural property markets. Rural land returns – over the period 1975-1996, there has been higher than the returns achieved from residential and commercial real estate in respective rural areas: traditional farming areas have not provided the same level of returns as developing and marginal farming areas. Economic and financial factors and rural land prices – there is significant correlation between rural land price trends in adjoining areas with similar land use and level of farming development: as the distance between specific rural area increases the correlation between changes in land price decreases. Modelling rural land values – relationship between change in rural land prices and the change in economic factors is more significant in the developing and marginal cropping areas compared to the traditional cropping areas: there is a more significant association between rural land prices and rural economic factors when the economic factors are lagged, rather than contemporaneous. Rural property and valuation implications – rural land sales in one location are generally not an accurate measure of changing prices in another location: factors other than rural economic factors have a greater impact on rural land prices in areas which are closer settled or where alternate non agricultural land uses are available / Master of Commerce (Hons.)

Spatial autocorrelation is commonly found in the Hedonic Pricing model for real estate prices, but little attention has been paid to identify the causes behind. The primary objective of this research is to examine the causes of spatial autocorrelation in housing prices. Observed autocorrelation is often attributable to the omission of important location characteristics in the modelling process. Since it is practically impossible to exhaustively include all location characteristics, some variables may eventually be omitted, leaving spatially autocorrelated residuals in the Hedonic Pricing model. This thesis proposes a new source of spatial autocorrelation: real estate market liquidity. We hypothesize that liquidity affects the geographical boundary within which buyers and sellers search for price information. When the “immediate vicinity” of a property has few transactions, buyers and sellers may have to search for price information from more distant locations. Therefore, low liquidity in the vicinity of a property should strengthen the spatial autocorrelation of real estate prices. A Spatial - Liquidity Hedonic Pricing (SLHP) model is proposed to test the above hypothesis. The SLHP model generalizes traditional spatial autoregressive models by making the spatial process liquidity dependent. When applied to the apartment market in Hong Kong, the model is operationalized by defining “immediate vicinity” as the building where the subject unit locates. Furthermore, the SLHP model recognizes that past transactions may affect current transactions, but not vice versa, so the spatial weight matrix is simply lower triangular. Under this condition, we have shown that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation is equivalent to the Ordinary Least Squares Estimation. This greatly simplifies the estimation procedures and reduces the empirical analysis to a feasible scale. Based on 15 500 transactions of residential units in Taikooshing, Hong Kong from 1992 to 2006, we conclude that while positive spatial autocorrelation is present in housing prices, its magnitude decreases when liquidity, as measured by the past transaction volume in the immediate vicinity of a subject unit, is high. In addition, we found that current prices are spatially correlated with transactions occurred up to the last three months only, reflecting the relatively high information efficiency of Hong Kong’s residential market. All these results are generally robust across a variety of distance, liquidity, and time weight specifications. This study establishes liquidity as a determinant of spatial autocorrelation in real estate prices. This is a new finding contributing to the economic literature on liquidity effects and technical literature on spatial estimation. Our results not only reveal the spatially dependent price formation process in the real estate market, but also have practical applications on the hedonic modelling of real estate prices for mass valuation and index construction. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy