Thesis advisor: Richard McGowan / Proposition 13 revolutionized local politics in California when it stated that any future increase in taxes or tax rates would require a vote of two-thirds of the electors in any given local jurisdiction. Since California is the sixth largest economy in the world and exhibits tremendous economic and demographic variation, this study seeks to determine what characteristics of a county can be used to predict whether or not a local ballot initiative will pass. In addition, this study attempts to determine whether there is a distinction between the predictive value of demographic variables for transportation, education, safety, and facilities initiatives. This report reveals that greater wealth within a county is associated with a greater likelihood of an initiative passing, although at a decreasing rate. The data also suggests that a greater percentage of nonwhites in a county is correlated with an initiative passing. In counties with larger elderly populations, initiatives are less likely to pass. Furthermore, the data indicates that the impact of demographics varies for transportation, education, safety, and facilities initiatives. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2005. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

The California experience previous to the passage of Proposition 13 taught the citizens of California that even with representation, the freedoms of individuals could be threatened. This lesson is especially true when we see the assessment scandals, a rapidly increasing real estate market and the failure of California’s representative officials to respond to the threat to individual liberty. In addition to watching corrupt tax assessors take advantage of the system, individuals were tired of paying inflated property taxes that were changing drastically from year to year. People’s homes were literally being taken from them by the power of the tax collector. This strongly deviated from the initial founding of our nation that was supposed to be “of the people, by the people and for the people.” While few people initially expected Proposition 13 to pass, ultimately it passed with 64.8 percent of the vote. The initiative process in California gave individuals the opportunity to make a constitutional amendment to the California Constitution in regards to the taxation processes of the government. With the passage of Proposition 13, the citizens of California made their statement.