nÃo hà / A modelagem microscÃpica do fluxo de veÃculos na infraestrutura viÃria urbana tem se constituÃdo uma potencial ferramenta para a anÃlise do desempenho da seguranÃa viÃria (DSV) frente aos tradicionais mÃtodos de anÃlise com base nos estudos observacionais. Para consolidar essa abordagem existem desafios prÃticos e metodolÃgicos que foram tratados como objetivos nesta pesquisa, dentre os quais se destacam: (i) a identificaÃÃo de indicadores proxy eficientes para as anÃlises de seguranÃa nesse ambiente; (ii) a anÃlise dos algoritmos de microssimulaÃÃo quanto a sua eficÃcia de representaÃÃo dos processos de conduÃÃo no meio urbano, (iii) a definiÃÃo de um procedimento sistemÃtico de estimaÃÃo do DSV com o uso de microssimuladores de trÃfego e (iv) a validaÃÃo dos indicadores sintÃticos usados para medir o DSV. Diante deste contexto, esta pesquisa tem como objetivo geral apresentar uma contribuiÃÃo metodolÃgica para a utilizaÃÃo da microssimulaÃÃo de trÃfego nas anÃlises do DSV no processo de planejamento tÃtico operacional dos sistemas de transporte com foco nas interseÃÃes urbanas. O procedimento metodolÃgico proposto considerou a realizaÃÃo de cinco etapas: 1) seleÃÃo e caracterizaÃÃo do local de estudo, 2) codificaÃÃo do local no microssimulador, 3) planejamento da simulaÃÃo, 4) calibraÃÃo e validaÃÃo do modelo e 5) estimaÃÃo dos indicadores. A aplicaÃÃo do procedimento considerou trÃs interseÃÃes semaforizadas da cidade de Fortaleza, utilizando a plataforma de microssimulaÃÃo de trÃfego VISSIM. Os resultados alcanÃados indicaram que foi possÃvel estimar o DSV com relativo nÃvel de confianÃa e um procedimento complementar de validaÃÃo dos indicadores revelou um nÃvel de consistÃncia entre o nÃmero estimado de conflitos de interaÃÃes longitudinais e o nÃmero observado de colisÃes traseiras observadas em campo. / The microscopic modeling of traffic flow in urban road infrastructure has proven to be a potential tool for analyzing the performance of road safety (DSV) compared to traditional methods of analysis based on observational studies. To consolidate this approach there are practical and methodological challenges that have been treated as objectives in this research, among which are: (i) the identification of efficient synthetic indicators for the analysis of safety in this environment, (ii) the analysis of the microscopic algorithms and their effectiveness in the representation of the driving processes in urban areas, (iii) the definition of a systematic procedure for estimating the DSV using a microscopic platform and (iv) concerning the validation of synthetic indicators used to measure the DSV. Given this context, this research intended to provide a general methodological contribution to the use of microscopic traffic simulators for the analysis of the DSV in tactical and operational transportation systems planning process with focus on urban intersections. The proposed methodological procedure considered the completion of five steps: 1) selection and site characterization study, 2) coding the site in microsimulator 3) planning of the simulation, 4) calibration and validation of the model and 5) estimation of the indicators. The procedure considered three signalized intersections in the city of Fortaleza, using VISSIM  as simulation platform. The results indicated that it was possible to estimate the DSV with relative confidence level and a complementary procedure for validation of the indicators showed a consistent level of consistency between the estimated number of conflicts of longitudinal interactions and observed number of rear end collisions observed in the field.

More than half a century after the liberation of the majority of African countries, Africa is facing major socio-economic challenges including unemployment, slow economic growth and inequality. With waves of violent service delivery protests over the last few years throughout South Africa, it is now more than ever vital to identify the key challenges to development and the ways to overcome these trials. The importance of plans for development, and that reliable data plays an essential role in development have been wildly discussed, especially as the legitimacy and reliability of plans are highly dependent upon the quality of the data utilised. Even though data plays such a significant role in development, quality up to date data is expensive, difficult to obtain and in many instances not available. Furthermore, South Africa and many developing countries do not have the luxury of such data, nor the skills and resources to develop high quality statistics on a regular basis. In the light of the importance of accurate up-to-date data for planning and the lack of the aforementioned data in South Africa, the dissertation explores means of ‘accessing’ high quality up-to-date data by the use of ‘proxy indicators’. The dissertation seeks to explore whether it would be possible to use proxy indicators to measure local economic conditions and to identify a set of proxy indicators that accurately portray the economy. The study commences with an analysis on the relationship between a number of proxy indicators and the national economy in order to identify a set of proxy indicators that accurately portrays the economy where after the accurate indicators is empirically tested to that of the local economy in three study areas. The study established that six proxy indicators can be used to measure the local economy in South Africa. These are the (1) number of middle class residential properties sold, (2) growth in residential building activity, (3) retail sales of durable goods including business profit, (4) hardware sales including business profit, (5) volume of sales of spare parts for vehicles and (6) fuel consumption. Apart from the fact that the indicators mirror the economy to a high degree, a number of trends with regards to the dynamics of the relationship between the indicator and the economy were revealed. The study demonstrated that there is merit in further studies regarding the use of proxy indicators in planning / Dissertation (MTRP)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / gm2014 / Town and Regional Planning / unrestricted