<div>The purpose of this dissertation is to study the effectiveness of public policies in generating fuel savings and emissions reductions. I focus on applying various empirical methods to analyze consumer responses to policy changes on both extensive and intensive margins. This dissertation consists of two chapters.</div><div><br></div><div>In the first chapter, I compare the effectiveness of fuel taxes and product taxes on reducing gasoline consumption of new car buyers. I employ a unified data source for vehicle choice and subsequent vehicle use to estimate a random effects logit demand model that explicitly accounts for vehicle use heterogeneity. My demand estimation suggests that new car buyers fully value the fuel-saving benefits from improved vehicle fuel efficiency when they initially purchase their cars. My policy simulations indicate that high-mileage drivers are more responsive to a change in fuel taxes than to a change in product taxes, even as low-mileage drivers are more responsive to product taxes. By capturing such heterogeneous consumer response to policies, I show that a counterfactual increase of the fuel tax is more effective than a revenue-equivalent product tax in reducing the total gasoline consumption of new car buyers. Further, when accounting for its effects on consumer response on both extensive and intensive margins, a change in fuel taxes has a clear advantage over a change in product taxes in reducing the consumption of gasoline even when the magnitude of tax increase is small. More importantly, a model not accounting for vehicle use heterogeneity understates the fuel saving effects of both policies and misleads us about the relative effectiveness when comparing different policies. </div><div><br></div><div>The second chapter explores how changes in the marginal cost of driving affect consumers decisions about passenger vehicle utilization, as measured by average daily miles traveled per vehicle. This intensive margin of consumer response has important implications for the effectiveness of usage-based policies, such as the fuel tax and the mileage tax, that designed to address externalities of driving. I estimate the elasticity of driving with respect to fuel cost per mile using a large panel data that covers 351 towns and cities in Massachusetts over 24 quarters. While most researchers in this literature apply fixed effects estimators to examine the elasticity of driving, I use a factor model econometric setup to account for unobserved common factors and regional heterogeneity. Residual diagnostics confirm that the factor model setup does a better job of removing the cross-section dependence than fixed effects estimators do. Given low consumer responsiveness to changes in the marginal cost of driving engendered by current usage-based policies, rights-based approaches like congestion charges might be better alternatives to influence vehicle utilization and vehicle ownership.</div>

<p>This dissertation is a collection of three papers, each one being a chapter. In the first chapter, I examine how career interruptions related to child-raising duties affect married women’s labor market trajectory, lifetime earnings, and Social Security retirement benefits. To address this question, I develop and estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of female labor supply, savings, and Social Security benefit claiming. I explicitly model the Social Security benefits system and the federal and payroll tax structure in the United States. The framework, thus, allows me to unravel the complex interdependencies between women’s participation decisions, accumulated work experience, lifetime earnings, and public pension benefits. I estimate the model using the Method of Simulated Moments and match data for the cohort born in 1943-1954. I use the model to simulate labor supply behavior of married women in a revenue-neutral counterfactual scenario where I introduce Social Security caregiver credit that covers the lost earnings during the first 5 child-rearing years through changes in retirement benefits. I find that the model predicts that introducing the provision of earning credits for child care in the Social Security system would reduce participation of married women during the child-rearing years, but the contributory nature of the caregiver credits creates incentive to work in the post-childrearing period.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In the second chapter, I evaluate the implication of introducing Social Security caregiver credit by examining whether and to what extent implementing this child-related policy to the existing Social Security system would help reduce the motherhood earnings penalty over the life cycle. I utilize the dynamic lifecycle model developed in Chapter 1 and conduct revenue-neutral counterfactual policy experiments by introducing caregiver credits in in various settings. First, I analyze the effect of the policy at different generosity levels; and second, I implement the policy in the presence as well as in the absence of the marriage-based noncontributory Social Security benefits (spousal and survivors benefits). Third, I conduct an alternative counterfactual policy experiment where mothers could drop five additional work years from the average career earnings (or equivalently Social Security benefits) calculation. The model predicts that lifetime pre-tax labor earnings of married women increase significantly under when the caregiver credits are introduced in a setting where spousal and survivors benefits are eliminated, and there is a sizeable reduction in gender gap in average career earnings at the Social Security Early Retirement Age. The alternative policy of computing average career earnings based on a mother's 30 years of earnings has significantly smaller impact on offsetting motherhood earnings penalty through retirement benefits compared to the provision of Social Security caregiver credits.</p> <p><br></p> <p>In the third chapter, I examine the effect of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) work requirement reinstatement on food insecurity outcomes of able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs). The policy restricts SNAP benefits of ABAWDs to 3 months in a 36 month period if they are not working or participating in any work program for at least 20 hours a week. In the aftermath of the 2008 recession, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 waived work requirements nationwide, and many states reimplemented the work rule at different times beginning in 2011. I employ a difference-in-differences approach utilizing this cross-state variation in the reimplementation of the policy. Using rich information on food affordability and food intake behavior from the Food Security Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS-FSS), I find that promoting work for food assistance improved the overall food security status of ABAWDs by reducing disruptions in food intake, anxiety over food affordability and dependency on emergency food receipt. Subsample analyses indicate that effects are stronger for never married and less educated ABAWDs.</p>

<p dir="ltr">An inquiry into the additionality of the income tax credit program for solar purchasing in Ohio, where aggregation electric purchasing programs exist.</p><p dir="ltr">In the State of Ohio, a unique feature of the electric market regulatory landscape permits local governments to become energy suppliers to their residents and small businesses through programs known as community choice aggregation (CCA). Some of these programs guarantee 100% renewable electricity to all enrollees. Concurrently, the federal government offers an income tax credit (ITC) for the purchase of a solar array. When policy incentives are offered, it is important to ensure they impact their target audience to act in ways that would not be observed in the scenario without the tax incentive. This is known as “additionality.” In the context of carbon emissions reduction goals, individuals who claim the ITC while already having 100% renewable electricity would violate additionality. In other words, these renewable aggregation programs may crowd out the benefits of the ITC. This paper seeks to assess the additionality of the ITC in the context of Ohio’s CCA program. The actual additionality can depend on whether renewable energy is already being supplied to the site that constructs a solar array. Hence, we study the relationship between CCA and solar adoption probability to determine whether tax incentives are additional. Using non-parametric survival analysis, panel data methods, and post-estimation simulations, this paper seeks to discern if additionality is violated using the ITC in areas where a supply of renewable energy is already guaranteed. We find that aggregation programs increase the probability of solar adoption and that on average, in Ohio, roughly $0.44 of every dollar spent on the income tax credit is non-additional. This will help policymakers determine the efficacy of funds allocated to their respective programs.</p>