Over the last decade there has been an increasing trend by governments in Australia and throughout the world to use the skills and expertise of the private sector in developing and implementing infrastructure projects. The agreement for these projects must allocate responsibility for dealing with the risks which may arise to either the government directly, or on behalf of consumers, or to the private sponsor. / This thesis investigates risk allocation in the private provision of infrastructure, particularly in build-own-operate (BOO) and build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) projects. Its primary objective is to identify a framework for efficient risk allocation so that decision makers can assess the efficiency of the risk allocation in past projects and can attempt to increase the efficiency of the risk allocation in future projects. / This thesis defines an efficient situation as one where the risk allocation cannot be varied without the total risk premium for the entire project being increased, and approach based on Pareto optimality. As it is almost impossible to determine the true risk premium charged by parties for risk bearing, risks should be allocated to the party best able to control and manage them. This is explained to mean the party which is best able to control or manage the likelihood of the risk occurring or the size of its consequences if it does occur. It also means the party with the best access to reasonable mitigation techniques and the party which is least risk averse. Those exogenous risks which are not easily allocated in this way should be shared so that both parties, the sponsor and the government, have an incentive to manage them. Some of the options for sharing these risks are examined. / The application of the theory of efficient risk allocation is simplified by using a categorical risk framework. This approach is then tested on seven case studies of recent Australian projects spanning several industry sectors. Finally, the theoretical hypotheses and assumptions are tested in a survey of key participants in the Australian private infrastructure industry. This survey not only confirms that the basic theory for efficient risk allocation is valid but also identifies the key areas of concern to the private sector when it considers project risk allocation. Risks of concern are identified and possible options for risk sharing are investigated. / This thesis concludes that it is possible to achieve efficient risk allocations in practice, and that by achieving this outcome transaction costs can be reduced, allowing cheaper infrastructure services to be supplied to the community. However, several hurdles to achieving this outcome are identified. These include the peculiar characteristics of banks and their position in projects funded using non-recourse project finance, and the fact that most private firms fail to value potential upside risks as highly as they fear potential losses due to downside risks. / More work is needed to understand and overcome these hurdles if efficient risk allocation is to be achieved in the real world. It is only then that governments can be sure that they are providing private sector infrastructure services to the community at the lowest overall cost.

Over the last decade there has been an increasing trend by governments in Australia and throughout the world to use the skills and expertise of the private sector in developing and implementing infrastructure projects. The agreement for these projects must allocate responsibility for dealing with the risks which may arise to either the government directly, or on behalf of consumers, or to the private sponsor. / This thesis investigates risk allocation in the private provision of infrastructure, particularly in build-own-operate (BOO) and build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) projects. Its primary objective is to identify a framework for efficient risk allocation so that decision makers can assess the efficiency of the risk allocation in past projects and can attempt to increase the efficiency of the risk allocation in future projects. / This thesis defines an efficient situation as one where the risk allocation cannot be varied without the total risk premium for the entire project being increased, and approach based on Pareto optimality. As it is almost impossible to determine the true risk premium charged by parties for risk bearing, risks should be allocated to the party best able to control and manage them. This is explained to mean the party which is best able to control or manage the likelihood of the risk occurring or the size of its consequences if it does occur. It also means the party with the best access to reasonable mitigation techniques and the party which is least risk averse. Those exogenous risks which are not easily allocated in this way should be shared so that both parties, the sponsor and the government, have an incentive to manage them. Some of the options for sharing these risks are examined. / The application of the theory of efficient risk allocation is simplified by using a categorical risk framework. This approach is then tested on seven case studies of recent Australian projects spanning several industry sectors. Finally, the theoretical hypotheses and assumptions are tested in a survey of key participants in the Australian private infrastructure industry. This survey not only confirms that the basic theory for efficient risk allocation is valid but also identifies the key areas of concern to the private sector when it considers project risk allocation. Risks of concern are identified and possible options for risk sharing are investigated. / This thesis concludes that it is possible to achieve efficient risk allocations in practice, and that by achieving this outcome transaction costs can be reduced, allowing cheaper infrastructure services to be supplied to the community. However, several hurdles to achieving this outcome are identified. These include the peculiar characteristics of banks and their position in projects funded using non-recourse project finance, and the fact that most private firms fail to value potential upside risks as highly as they fear potential losses due to downside risks. / More work is needed to understand and overcome these hurdles if efficient risk allocation is to be achieved in the real world. It is only then that governments can be sure that they are providing private sector infrastructure services to the community at the lowest overall cost.

Doctor of Philosophy / Public private partnerships [PPPs] are a product of policies and processes to modernise the delivery of infrastructure-based services. An examination of the modernisation literature establishes the broad analytical frame within which this thesis investigates PPPs. The macro-level overview of the recent transformation of the Australian public sector confirms that the dominant principles underlying modernisation are grounded in new institutional economics [NIE] that are implemented through private-sector derived accounting and management implementation technologies. It highlights the contextual complexities stemming from Australia’s federal system of government, explaining the decision to focus on investigating PPP experiences in Victoria. At the conceptual level, PPPs rely on risk management and modernisation of service delivery to achieve value for money [VFM] for governments. In Victoria, 2000 signals a change in the modernisation role of PPPs. Thereafter, risk inherent in PPPs was reduced by excluding the contractor from the delivery of core social services. Also, the state began to develop a number of PPP policies to guide, aid, control and rationalise decision making in the pre-contracting stage, and to clarify objectives. Analysis of PPP contracts and the failure of one pre-2000 PPP hospital project are illustrative of the controversies identified in the literature about ‘hidden’ aims, the role of technologies designed provide ‘objective’ evidence of VFM inherent in PPPs at the time of contracting, and the ‘fallacy’ of risk transfer to private contractors. An examination of prison contracts indicates the changing nature of the management and control of PPPs in the execution stage. Analysis of pre-2000 prison contracts reveals that these projects were intended to drive significant financial and nonfinancial modernisation reforms throughout the correctional services system. Despite problems with contractual specification of performance and payment mechanisms, and the failure of one of the three pre-2000 prisons, recent evidence suggests, contrary to conclusions in the previous literature, that sector-wide modernisation objectives are being achieved in PPP prisons. PPPs have been criticised on the grounds that they enable governments to avoid accountability for service provision. A survey of the extent, focus and characteristics of the performance audit of PPPs confirms that little PPP auditing has been undertaken in Australia per se, and also that much of the performance auditing has focused on examining adherence to mandated procedures in the pre-contracting stage. However, this thesis demonstrates that the Victorian government has undertaken significant evaluation of the operation of its pre-2000 PPP prisons, and that its thinking and policy development reflect lessons learnt. The evidence presented in this thesis challenges findings in the previous literature that modernisation has delivered less than promised. This thesis confirms the potency of longitudinal research to investigate outcomes of what is essentially an iterative process of reform and that ‘successful’ implementation of modernisation change is sensitive to the context to be reformed. In finding that the presence of goodwill trust is critical to the implementation of recent modernisation reform in the correctional services sector (including in the PPP prisons), this thesis also confirms recent critiques of the power of NIE theories to explain contracting practices in the PPP setting.

Techn. Universiẗat, Fak. VI Planen Bauen Umwelt, Diss.--Berlin, 2007.

Thesis (M.S.)--Oregon State University, 2009. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-72). Also available on the World Wide Web.

Wirtschaftsuniv., Diss--Wien, 1999.

Univ., Diss--Bonn, 2002.

Tech. Univ. Bergakademie, Diss.--Freiberg, 2003.

"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, December 2004." / "MBA professional report"--Cover. Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-89). Also issued in paper format.

Zugl.: Stuttgart, Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.