The aim of this project was to combine species distribution modelling (SDM) with the results of a molecular genetic diversity study to make suggestions for sites on which to locate genetic reserves. This work was complemented by a molecular genetic diversity and a forest management policy study, to examine the potential for in situ conservation of the crop wild relative species, Prunus avium. In order to identify the species distribution, the most widely available occurrence data were in the form of historical records, gathered from online repositories and herbaria. A selection of environmental variables were incorporated with occurrence records in the SDM software, MaxEnt, to estimate the existing and possible future distribution of this species. Different sampling methods and combinations of accessions were used to evaluate model performance. This work was supplemented by the use of microsatellite marker analysis, to identify genetic distance among samples collected, covering the species‘ range. Clear separation was found between the individuals from the south-eastern edge of the range, and all other European samples. The effect of management practices on the persistence of wild cherry in managed forests and the impact of conservation policy was also considered, using case studies from the UK and Belgium, interviews and grey literature. Results showed that the difficulties of obtaining reliable, unbiased data can be overcome, as long as these factors are considered in conservation planning. Suggestions are made for several potential reserve sites across Europe, in a variety of forested environments, with differing management priorities.

Mangroves are a group of woody plants that occur in the dynamic tropical and subtropical intertidal zones. Mangrove forests offer numerous ecosystem services (e.g. nutrient cycling, coastal protection and fisheries production) and support costal livelihoods worldwide. Rapid environmental changes and historical anthropogenic pressures have turned mangrove forests into one of the most threatened and rapidly vanishing habitats on Earth. Yet, we have a restricted understanding of how these pressures have influenced mangrove abundance, composition and functions, mostly due to limited availability of mangrove field data. Such knowledge gaps have obstructed mangrove conservation programs across the tropics. This thesis focuses on the plants of Earth’s largest continuous mangrove forest — the Sundarbans — which is under serious threat from historical and future habitat degradation, human exploitation and sea level rise. Using species, environmental, and functional trait data that I collected from a network of 110 permanent sample plots (PSPs), this thesis aims to understand habitat preferences of threatened mangroves, to explore spatial and temporal dynamics and the key drivers of mangrove diversity and composition, and to develop an integrated approach for predicting functional trait responses of plants under current and potential future environmental scenarios. I found serious detrimental effects of increasing soil salinity and historical tree harvesting on the abundance of the climax species Heritiera fomes. All species showed clear habitat preferences along the downstream-upstream gradient. The magnitude of species abundance responses to nutrients, elevation, and stem density varied between species. Species-specific density maps suggest that the existing protected area network (PAN) does not cover the density hotspots of any of the threatened mangrove species. Using tree data collected from different salinity zones in the Sundarbans (hypo-, meso-, and hypersaline) at four historical time points: 1986, 1994, 1999 and 2014, I found that the hyposaline mangrove communities were the most diverse and heterogeneous in species composition in all historical time points while the hypersaline communities were the least diverse and most homogeneous. I detected a clear trend of declining compositional heterogeneity in all ecological zones since 1986, suggesting ecosystem-wide biotic homogenization. Over the 28 years, the hypersaline communities have experienced radical shifts in species composition due to population increase and range expansion of the disturbance specialist Ceriops decandra and local extinction or range contraction of many endemics including the globally endangered H. fomes. Applying habitat-based biodiversity modelling approach, I found historical tree harvesting, siltation, disease and soil alkalinity as the key stressors that negatively influenced the diversity and distinctness of the mangrove communities. In contrast, species diversity increased along the downstream – upstream, and riverbank — forest interior gradients, suggesting late successional upstream and forest interior communities were more diverse than the early successional downstream and riverbank communities. Like the species density hotspots, the existing PAN does not cover the remaining biodiversity hotspots. Using a novel integrated Bayesian modelling approach, I was able to generate trait-based predictions through simultaneously modelling trait-environment correlations (for multiple traits such as tree canopy height, specific leaf area, wood density and leaf succulence for multiple species, and multiple environmental drivers) and trait-trait trade-offs at organismal, community and ecosystem levels, thus proposing a resolution to the ‘fourth-corner problem’ in community ecology. Applying this approach to the Sundarbans, I found substantial intraspecific trade-offs among the functional traits in many tree species, detrimental effects of increasing salinity, siltation and soil alkalinity on growth related traits and parallel plastic enhancement of traits related to stress tolerance. My model predicts an ecosystem-wide drop in total biomass productivity under all anticipated stress scenarios while the worst stress scenario (a 50% rise in salinity and siltation) is predicted to push the ecosystem to lose 30% of its current total productivity by 2050. Finally, I present an overview of the key results across the work, the study’s limitations and proposals for future work.

The high floristic biodiversity value of ancient woodland is widely acknowledged, as is its status as a fragmented habitat of limited spatial extent. The distinctive vegetation of ancient woodland is an important factor in its conservation. Specifically, Ancient Woodland Indicator (AWI) species have been shown to be poor dispersers and incompatible with a fragmented habitat that is subject to environmental change. In recognition of their ecological importance, both Ancient Semi-Natural Woodland (ASNW) and Ancient Replanted Woodland (ARW) are protected by legislation. This thesis took the novel approach of examining the distinctiveness and community ecology of vegetation communities in all three woodland types of ASNW, ARW, and recent woodland. Importantly, analyses were based on new high-granularity primary vegetation and soil data. To address questions raised in the literature regarding the accuracy of ancient woodland and AWI identification, this research examined the metrics used to distinguish these habitats and species. Increasingly, the literature calls for further understanding of the ecological drivers of ancient woodland vegetation distinctiveness. In response, this research tested for differences in species composition of canopy, shrub, herb layer, AWI, and moss communities across all three woodland types. For AWI species, biotic, abiotic, and biogeographical variables were analysed for their contribution to community distinctiveness. Results highlighted the importance of consistency in metric selection when assessing the distinctiveness of ancient woodland and determining indicator species. In addition to the usual alpha scale measure of distinctiveness, assessing richness and community composition at the beta and gamma scales is recommended to inform conservation. Life traits and dispersal mechanisms were important differentiators for herb layer community composition among the woodland types. AWI richness was equally strongly explained by biogeographical variables as by ASNW, ARW, and recent status. Overall, this thesis supported ecological and biogeographical explanations for the distinctiveness of ancient woodland vegetation.

Within the UK, levels of timber processing are set to increase as the plantation grown forest resource reaches financial maturity. Made up predominately of exotic coniferous species, this resource has been the focus of many recent studies as wood users look to improve their fundamental knowledge of the primary characteristics that will enable them to make more appropriate decisions and capitalise on future opportunities. As a further contribution to this knowledge base, it was the aim of this thesis to determine moisture content variation within Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr) standing trees and roundwood logs. Within standing trees, moisture content was found to vary significantly in both the longitudinal and radial directions (P<0.001). Longitudinally, the base and top of the trees contained higher quantities of moisture than did the lower and mid sections. Radially, the moisture content at the centre of each disk was very low and this extended outwards before rapidly increasing mid-radius and then reaching a plateau near to the cambium. A sigmoid regression model successfully explained two-thirds of the radial moisture content variation as well as explaining the longitudinal moisture content variation. The radial variation with tree height was described by a shortening of the low moisture content extending outwards from the pith and a softening of the steepness of the increase with the duration extending as tree height increased. Seasonal variation within standing spruce trees was assessed within a plantation forest in northern England. Removing samples from 81 trees throughout a period covering 42 calendar weeks of 2012 revealed no significant effect of season on the moisture content although a link was identified with short-term variation in temperature. However, further analysis on the radial sections confirmed that when the moisture content data were converted to a percentage of total lumen saturation, a significant effect of seasonal variation was observed within the outer sapwood region (P<0.001). Whilst the standing trees as a whole did not demonstrate seasonal variation in moisture content, variation due to seasonal weather did have an effect on the drying of roundwood within the forest. Analysis of c. 25,000 samples, collected over a 6-year period, confirmed that season (dormant or growing) had a significant effect on sample moisture content (P<0.001). Temperature was recorded as having the greatest effect on moisture variation within roundwood whilst the effect of rainfall was not significant, due principally to the unpredictable nature of this variable throughout the year. To identify the radial and longitudinal moisture content change of roundwood during drying, an experiment was carried out to accelerate the drying process on short logs using an industrial oven at a constant temperature (40°C). Total drying time varied between 7 and 28 days prior to post drying analysis of the logs to determine the longitudinal and radial moisture profiles. All logs lost a constant quantity of moisture each day with the logs dried for 28 days losing more than 50% of their starting weight. Longitudinally, moisture was lost from all points along the length of each log with the log ends remaining driest, although these dry areas only accounted for 40% of the total log length. Radially, moisture declined across the log with the greatest amount removed from the outer radius. In order to provide some relevance of the impact moisture content variation has on the forest industry value chain, data collected from a working timber harvesting operation confirmed that variation existed between volume to weight conversions of different products. Within this even-aged Sitka spruce clearfell, volume to weight conversion factors ranged from 1.02 to 1.19. Differences of this magnitude can not only lead to a lack of understanding of between tree variation within a single site, but can also result in an impact on the optimum value recovery expected by each of the parties engaged within the value chain. The results presented within this thesis will help guide timber growers, agents, managers and purchasers in their future decision making when considering the most suitable markets for standing trees or roundwood logs. Improving knowledge of spatial and temporal moisture content variation will potentially result in maximising the forestry value chain and enable the forestry sector in the UK to make more from wood.