Valuation of R&D projects is quite complex due to the substantial uncertainties in a project's life-cycle phases. The sequential nature of R&D projects continuously provides decision-makers with choices regarding whether and when to undertake future potential investment opportunities. This means that when valuing R&D projects decision-makers should take these factors into account. But R&D project usually takes long time to complete processes for commercialization. If the time to complete is longer, it is easier to trigger the crisis for capital shortage. So it seems very important modeling the capital shortage risk to induce the probability of failure in the pricing model. In this thesis we try to apply the analogy of financial securities subject to credit risk of Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and attempt to value patents with capital shortage risk in an arbitrage free environment using the martingale measure technique. Furthermore, derive closed form formula for patents valuation which makes application easier than that of the theoretic option model. The major findings are: (1) when considering the effect of the failure frequency (capital shortage risk), the patent value will grow rapidly and then converge in the short run, no matter how other parameters incorporated into the robust analysis; (2) when increasing in the volatility of market revenues with synchronized higher volatility of investment cost, the volatility curve will be distorted to be U-shaped. Meanwhile, lower failure frequency could aggravate the decreasing in the option value. Another issue is when the manager exercises the project with multiple underlying assets, where the assets returns are of non-linear correlation particularly in the non-Normal environment. Non-parametric dependence measures may better employed when explaining co-movement. We focus on the value of a (such as resources development) project in general depends on the price of the multiple products; these are usually correlated to some extent. So the project was treated as having a rainbow option, whose underlying asset prices correlate with each other, and also as having uncertainties that decrease according to the project stage. Based on Cherubini and Luciano’s framework (2002), the risk-neutral copula models are derived to figure decision flexibilities out easily. The main framework studies the valuation of a project (call on Max) by determining the joint risk-neutral distribution of the underlying assets (products) using copulas. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the higher default risk and association among the assets and the expected cost to completion contributes the higher risk premium in our model with dependence structure of Archimedean copula family than traditional Black-Scholes environment. / Valuation of R&D projects is quite complex due to the substantial uncertainties in a project's life-cycle phases. The sequential nature of R&D projects continuously provides decision-makers with choices regarding whether and when to undertake future potential investment opportunities. This means that when valuing R&D projects decision-makers should take these factors into account. But R&D project usually takes long time to complete processes for commercialization. If the time to complete is longer, it is easier to trigger the crisis for capital shortage. So it seems very important modeling the capital shortage risk to induce the probability of failure in the pricing model. In this thesis we try to apply the analogy of financial securities subject to credit risk of Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and attempt to value patents with capital shortage risk in an arbitrage free environment using the martingale measure technique. Furthermore, derive closed form formula for patents valuation which makes application easier than that of the theoretic option model. The major findings are: (1) when considering the effect of the failure frequency (capital shortage risk), the patent value will grow rapidly and then converge in the short run, no matter how other parameters incorporated into the robust analysis; (2) when increasing in the volatility of market revenues with synchronized higher volatility of investment cost, the volatility curve will be distorted to be U-shaped. Meanwhile, lower failure frequency could aggravate the decreasing in the option value. Another issue is when the manager exercises the project with multiple underlying assets, where the assets returns are of non-linear correlation particularly in the non-Normal environment. Non-parametric dependence measures may better employed when explaining co-movement. We focus on the value of a (such as resources development) project in general depends on the price of the multiple products; these are usually correlated to some extent. So the project was treated as having a rainbow option, whose underlying asset prices correlate with each other, and also as having uncertainties that decrease according to the project stage. Based on Cherubini and Luciano’s framework (2002), the risk-neutral copula models are derived to figure decision flexibilities out easily. The main framework studies the valuation of a project (call on Max) by determining the joint risk-neutral distribution of the underlying assets (products) using copulas. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the higher default risk and association among the assets and the expected cost to completion contributes the higher risk premium in our model with dependence structure of Archimedean copula family than traditional Black-Scholes environment.

Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (fuzzy ANP) is a helpful approach for the selection cooperative R&D projects developed by firms in collaboration with government. A technical committee for Industrial Technology Development Program (ITDP) in Taiwan regularly evaluates and decides proper public subsidiary of cooperative R&D projects. In this paper, we first discuss important decision criteria and establish decision model for ITDP projects selection. We apply fuzzy ANP to integrate decisions of members in the technical committee. In addition, we use simulation to analyze how decisions of technical committee change. Our results indicate that scientific & technology merit criterion is most important considered in overall technical committees. Besides that, the project execution is more important criteria than potential benefits and project risk in ITDP selection. Generally speaking, the paper reveals below results: (1) the fuzzy ANP is an appropriate method in multi-criteria technology R&D projects selection; (2) the decisions of technical committee will change under different decision risk and different risk attitude; (3) the interviews of technical committee indicate that ITDP is very important policy for improvement firms¡¦ R&D abilities.

This thesis analyzes the effectiveness of public spending on defense research and development (hereafter R&D) financed from the state budget in chapter of the Czech Ministry of Defence. I evaluated the spending effectiveness based on usability criteria and based on my own evaluation criteria. The findings prove the spending on defense R&D to be ineffective as the effectiveness coefficient resulted to be only 51%.

Submitted by Joana Azevedo (joanad@id.uff.br) on 2017-09-01T15:21:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Biblioteca da Escola de Engenharia (bee@ndc.uff.br) on 2017-09-04T13:30:26Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-04T13:30:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissert Eduardo de Assumpção Silva.pdf: 1604099 bytes, checksum: 47a7b2843f5729ca0a320602bc1c384e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-18 / A ciência e a tecnologia têm relação direta com o desenvolvimento de um país. Os projetos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento na CNEN são financiados pelos recursos diretos do orçamento da União e das Agências de Fomento como a FINEP e o CNPq. De um modo geral os gerentes de projetos acreditam que conseguem ter sucesso quando completam um projeto no prazo programado, no orçamento e nos requisitos previstos, que é comumente conhecido como “restrição tripla” ou “triângulo de ferro”. Entretanto, na revisão da literatura verificou-se outros critérios de avaliação do sucesso nos projetos, como os benefícios gerados à sociedade, o desenvolvimento das capacidades da equipe, as oportunidades futuras, novas tecnologias, entre outros. Diante dessa questão, buscando auxiliar o gestor na avaliação dessa tipologia de projetos, a pesquisa propôs um modelo com critérios e requisitos baseado na revisão da literatura e buscou através de um questionário medir os graus de importância e de utilização desses critérios junto aos especialistas da CNEN, que atuam diretamente na execução desses projetos. Os resultados revelaram que os critérios propostos no modelo possuem um grau de importância alto, com uma queda em relação à utilização, indicando que os critérios utilizados no modelo podem auxiliar os gestores na avaliação dessa tipologia de projeto. / Science and technology are directly related to the development of a country. The research and development projects at CNEN are financed by the direct resources of the budget of the Union and of the Development Agencies such as FINEP and CNPq. In general, project managers believe they can succeed when they complete a project within the programmed schedule, budget, and anticipated requirements, which is commonly known as a "triple constraint" or "iron triangle." However, in the review of the literature, other criteria for evaluation of success in projects, such as the benefits generated by society, the development of the team's capabilities, future opportunities, new technologies, among others, were verified. Faced with this question, seeking to assist the manager in the evaluation of this typology of projects, the research proposed a model with criteria and requirements based on the literature review and sought through a questionnaire to measure the degrees of importance and use of these criteria with the specialists of CNEN , Which act directly in the execution of these projects. The results showed that the criteria proposed in the model have a high degree of importance, with a decrease in relation to the use, indicating that the criteria used in the model can help managers in the evaluation of this type of project.

Par la promotion de l’innovation en réseau, les instruments de dynamiques territoriales sont devenus aujourd’hui des outils de support indispensables à la compétitivité des entreprises et à la croissance des nations. C’est dans cet esprit que sont conçus les pôles de compétitivité dans le dispositif français de 2005. L’innovation collaborative à l’échelle des pôles de compétitivité vise en premier lieu à créer des débouchés nouveaux, c’est-à-dire à générer des innovations prêtes à être diffusées sur les marchés. Or, si les réseaux d’innovation ont été largement étudiés à travers des outils de pilotage, de gouvernance et de coordination, par la finance, la propriété intellectuelle ou les pratiques de RH, par la formation, par la confiance entre les partenaires, par les externalités, ou encore par la dynamique des PME, une carence persiste dans les recherches actuelles à propos de l’orientation stratégique composite des réseaux d’innovation, en particulier l’orientation marché ou client dans la dynamique des projets/acteurs. Les premiers rapports d’évaluation des Pôles dénotent au demeurant, des écueils relatifs à une collaboration propice à des innovations prêtes pour l’accès aux marché et la stabilisation de problèmes liés au fonctionnement, à la gouvernance et à la performance des pôles. Tout en nous inscrivant dans le courant des travaux de recherche qui mettent en exergue les spécificités du dispositif français des pôles de compétitivité composé d’acteurs complémentaires (Recherche, Formation et Entreprises), notre travail met l’accent sur le fait que l’innovation collaborative est mise en tension par des intentions stratégiques différenciées, liées précisément aux profils hétérogènes, et parfois divergents, des partenaires animés par un projet commun. Par une analyse empirique portant sur le pôle SCS que nous avons choisi en raison de son profil, de la nature de ses projets et de son historique collaboratif avec notre laboratoire de recherche (abondance de données préexistantes), nous tentons de comprendre la façon dont s’intègre l’orientation « marché » dans les projets d’innovation en réseau, et le rôle que la dimension marketing joue dans la dynamique d’innovation collaborative au sein des pôles de compétitivité. L’étude « qualimétrique » conduite a permis de mettre en évidence une relation de dépendance réciproque très forte entre les particularités des déterminants de l’innovation collaborative, notamment les profils d’acteurs et les intentions stratégiques, et les modalités d’intégration de l’orientation client/marché dans les dans les projets d’innovation collaboratifs (PIC). L’attribut « réseaux de connaissances » qui distingue les PdC octroie au marketing une place limitée dans les PIC. Aujourd’hui, une révision du modèle assimilable à un « réseau connaissances » s’impose, car les résultats montrent aussi une limite des marges de manœuvre des Pôles qui peut constituer une entrave à l’accès aux marchés des innovations issues des PIC. En effet, le processus d’innovation collaborative à l’échelle des PdC ne permet qu’au plus de parvenir à dresser des prototypes (β Product) et n’octroie pas de possibilité d’aller au-delà (test, production, mise sur le marché, etc.). Nos contributions théoriques et managériales permettent aujourd’hui d’ouvrir des grilles d’analyses nouvelles et d’améliorer le fonctionnement, la gouvernance et la performance des pôles à travers le succès des projets d’innovations collaboratifs. La thèse nous a aussi amené à développer des hypothèses nouvelles qui pourraient être échafaudées dans le cadre de recherches ultérieures, notamment au regard de la pertinence des réseaux de connaissances dans le processus complet d'innovation collaborative. / By promoting networked innovation, instruments of territorial dynamics have now turn out to be essential tools supporting firms' competitiveness and growth of nations. Clusters of competitiveness (CC) designed by French government in 2005 follows that state of mind. The first goal of collaborative innovation within CC is to create new opportunities and generate innovations ready to be diffused on new markets. However, if innovation networks have been widely studied through many questions (such as monitoring tools, governance and coordination, with finance, intellectual property or HR practices, training, trust between partners, externalities, or by the dynamics of SMEs), a deficiency persists in current researches about the strategic orientation of the composite innovation networks, more particularly with the customer or market orientation in the dynamics of projects / actors. Moreover, the first evaluation reports of the system had put a focus on pitfalls considering its capacity to generate innovations ready for market access and the stabilization of operation difficulties, as well as some governance and performance problems. While placing our analysis within current researches which highlight the specificities of the French clusters of competitiveness composed of complementary protagonists (Research, Academic and Enterprise), we intend to focus on the fact that collaborative innovation is tensioned by differentiated strategic intentions and profiles specifically related to heterogeneous, and sometimes conflicting, partners driven by a common project. By an empirical analysis carried out on the SCS French cluster chosen owing to its profile, the nature of its projects and the background history of collaboration with our laboratory (a wealth of existing data); we try to understand how the customer orientation fits into the clusters, and the role that marketing plays in the dynamic collaborative innovation within clusters of competitiveness. Our “qualimetric” study has allowed us to bring out a very strong mutual relationship of dependency between the particularity of collaborative innovation determinants, notably profiles of actors and strategic intentions, and how to integrate the customer / market orientation within the collaborative innovation projects. As "knowledge networks", CC grant to marketing and customer orientation a limited role in the collaborative innovation projects. Today, a revision of the model similar to a "knowledge network" is needed because our results seem also to reveal a limited room for maneuver of clusters of competitiveness, which can be for the collaborative innovation projects an obstacle for generating innovations ready for market access. Indeed, in its current state the process of collaborative innovation on a clusters of competitiveness scale enable only to obtain prototypes (β Product), and does not permit to go beyond (ie. test, production, market, etc.). Our theoretical and managerial contributions allow to open up new analytical tools as well as to improve the operation, the governance and the performance of cluster competitiveness through the success of collaborative innovation projects. The thesis has also led us to develop new hypotheses, which could be built up through further researches, in particular with regard to the relevance of knowledge networks in the whole process of collaborative innovation.