A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, 1980 / Monthly mean s e a - l e v e l p r e s s u r e ove r th e o c ea nic areas a d j a c e n t t o t h e Kepublic o f South A f r i c a i s an aly s e d . R ela t i o n s h i p s between t h e oceanic p r e s s u r e and r a i n f a l l over t h i s p a r t o f t h e c o n t i n e n t a re d i s c u s s e d . P r i n c i p a l compon e n ts a n a l y s i s is used t o d e r i v e u n c o r r e l a t e d f u n c t i o n s of th e o r i g i n a l p r e s s u r e v a r i a b l e s . Three major p r e s s u r e f i e l d s were i d e n t i f i e d , termed a g e n e r a l , a l o n g i t u d i n a l and a l a t i t u d i n a l p r e s s u r e f i e l d . The r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p r e s s u r e and r a i n f a l l a re a s s e s s e d by r e g r e s s i n g monthly r a i n f a l l on t h e p r i n c i p a l comnonent s c o r e s . R a i n f a l l in w in te r maxima a r e a s appears t o be d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o oceanic s e a - l e v e l p r e s s u r e s i t u a t i o n s , whereas the r e s t o f th e country shows an o u t - o f - s e a s o n r e l a t i o n s h i p between r a i n f a l l and p r e s s u r e over n o n - c o n t i n e n t a l a r e a s .

Regional assessments of droughts are limited and meticulous assessment of droughts over larger spatial scales are often not substantial. Understanding drought variability on a regional scale is crucial for enhancing resiliency and adaptive ability of water supply and distribution systems. Moreover, it can be essential for appraising the dynamics and predictability of droughts based on regional climate across various spatial and temporal scales. The drought analysis of the past was carried out with the development of a high-resolution dataset (1km×1km) for three drought-prone regions of India between 1950 and 2016. In the study the monthly values of self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), incorporating Penman–Monteith (PM) approximation, which is physically based on potential evapotranspiration. Climate data were statistically downscaled using the delta downscaling method and was formulated to form a timeline for characterizing major drought events that occurred in the past. The downscaled climate data were validated with the station observations. Major severe drought events that occurred between 1950 and 2016 were identified and studied with greater emphasis to the drought situation in smaller spatial extent such as districts, villages or localities. A timeline of drought events within the period of study was also prepared to have an understanding of the severity of drought in all three regions.Likewise, the future drought durations are projected for droughts of different levels of severity and assessed in the same regions of India. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulated precipitation and climate data were used for near‐future (2015–2044) for different shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). scPDSI, was used again based on its fairness in identifying drought conditions which accounts for the temperature as well. Gridded rainfall and temperature data of spatial resolution of 1km were used to bias correct the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of 7 Global Climatic Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 project. Equidistant quantile-based mapping was adopted to remove the bias in the rainfall and temperature data and were corrected at the monthly scale. The downscaled climate data exhibited good statistical agreement with station data with correlation coefficient (R) ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 for both precipitation and temperature. Drought analysis indicated several major incidences over the analysis time period considered in this work, which truly adheres to the droughts recorded in qualitative reports of meteorological institutions in those regions. The drought study of the past helped to understand the situation in local levels and understand the necessities that can be opted for the future by proper management of water resources. While the outcome of the future prediction of drought duration suggests multiple severe to extreme drought events in all three study areas of appreciable durations mostly during the mid-2030s under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The severe drought durations under the SSP2-4.5 scenario were found to be ranging around 25 to 30 months in 30 years period of the near future. The high-resolution drought index proved to be key to assess the drought situation for both the past and the future in three different drought-prone regions of India.

Includes bibliography. / The objective of this thesis is to review existing methods for estimating missing values in rainfall records and to propose a number of new procedures. Two classes of methods are considered. The first is based on the theory of variable selection in regression. Here the emphasis is on finding efficient methods to identify the set of control stations which are likely to yield the best regression estimates of the missing values in the target station. The second class of methods is based on the EM algorithm, proposed by Dempster, Laird and Rubin (1977). The emphasis here is to estimate the missing values directly without first making a detailed selection of control stations. All "relevant" stations are included. This method has not previously been applied in the context of estimating missing rainfall values.

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Effective prediction of localized flash flood regions for an approaching rainfall event requires an in-depth knowledge of the land surface and stream characteristics of the forecast area. Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is currently formulated once or twice a day at the county level by River Forecast Centers (RFC) in the U.S. using modeling systems that contain coarse, generalized land and stream characteristics and hydrologic runoff techniques that often are not calibrated for the forecast region of a given National Weather Service (NWS) office. This research investigates the application of embedded geographic information systems (GIS) modeling techniques to generate a localized flash flood model for individual small watersheds at a five minute scale and tests the model using historical case storms to determine its accuracy in the FFG process. This model applies the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method and synthetic dimensionless unit hydrograph (UH), and Muskingum stream routing modeling technique to formulate flood characteristics and rapid update FFG for the study area of interest. The end result of this study is a GIS-based Flash Flood Forecasting system for ungaged small watersheds within a study area of the Blacksburg NWS forecast region. This system can then be used by forecasters to assess which watersheds are at higher risk for flooding, how much additional rainfall would be needed to initiate flooding, and when the streams of that region will overflow their banks. Results show that embedding these procedures into GIS is possible and utilizing the GIS interface can be helpful in FFG analysis, but uncertainty in CN and soil moisture can be problematic in effectively simulating the rainfall-runoff process at this greatly enhanced spatial and temporal scale. / Master of Science

Many studies have been done on synopticallyorced systems and heavy rainfall, but little research has gone into forecasting training convective storms. The research in this paper examines 38 separate synopticallyorced convective extreme precipitation training (SCEPT) events to find trends and consistencies in the synoptic environment. Three separate cases were found in which a SCEPT event occurred: Closed Upper-Level Trough (CULL), Upper-Level Trough (ULT), and 850 Trough/Low (850TL). Each event occurred in areas of precipitable water greater than 36.42 mm (1.43 inches), near maximums of 850 hPa moisture convergence and 700 hPa upper-vertical velocities, under the 850 hPa jet, and in the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone. CULL and ULT events occurred in strongly forced synoptic environments where 500 and 300 hPa troughs were evident and generally positively tilted. Little upper-level forcing, above 700 hPa, was found in 850TL events.

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