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The rapid growth of countries that opened their markets to international trade has led to an increase in the number of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). A number of countries have signed these agreements with their regional trade partners in order to reap the benefits of free trade. Such benefits include: trade stimulation, integrated markets, foreign exchange gains, and economic growth, to name just a few. The main objective of RTAs is to stimulate bilateral trade by integrating the markets of member states. However, RTAs have not achieved the same level of success globally. In some regions around the world, intra-bloc trade remains low post RTA ratification, especially in developing countries. A review of the trade literature revealed a number of reasons for the failure of the regional economic integration model to stimulating bilateral trade. Such reasons include: inadequate economic policies; lack of administrative capacity and infrastructure; protectionist trade policies; political immaturity and instability; and border issues. However, according to trade literature, there is an argument that, in recent years, most of these factors have been taken care of, yet intra-bloc trade remains low. In a quest to provide more answers for this puzzle, trade researchers have identified risk, which is defined as a situation where there are multiple possible outcomes (with known probabilities), but the ultimate outcome is not known, as a possible answer to the low intra-bloc trade mystery. Risk has also been identified as a key impediment to bilateral trade, especially between developing economies, where risk is inherent. However, investigations of the trade-risk nexus are still in their infancy, and are said to be flawed. Such investigations which have generally been done in developed countries have focused on the impact of one risk event on trade, in isolation. This approach is inadequate as risk is a multi-dimensional phenomenon with spill-over effects which require a more holistic approach to explore interdependencies between seemingly unrelated events. As such, there is still no framework for aggregating risk in the trade processes of an economy. This means therefore that the impact of risk on trade is still not yet fully understood. This also means that conclusions drawn from trade-risk studies involving developed countries could be misleading for developing countries because of the differences in underlying economic conditions. This study, therefore, pursued two main objectives: (1) to develop a risk aggregation framework in the form of a composite risk index; and (2) to determine the impact of risk on bilateral trade. In pursuit of the first objective, this study, used the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) as a case study, and developed a framework for quantifying risk. The output of this framework was a composite risk indicator which measures the level of risk in an economy. To construct the composite risk index, this study adapted a framework used to construct other social indexes e.g. the human development index; environmental sustainability index; and disaster risk index. The results from this exercise showed that the SACU member states (Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa) had different levels of risk, as expected. The results also showed that Lesotho and Eswatini had higher risk, which was constant or increased over time. This implies that these countries were less resilient to risk, as they were not able to address the risk over time, probably due to the lack of resources. Botswana, Namibia and South Africa proved to be more resilient as their risk decreased over time. In pursuit of the second objective, this study augmented the gravity model with the constructed composite risk index to determine the impact of aggregate risk on bilateral trade flows. This study addressed a number of issues around the gravity model related to; specification, and structural econometric concerns. Agriculture commodity trade data (from 2000 to 2018) was also preferred over aggregated trade data. From the results, it was found that imports increased, though marginally when the incidence of risky events increased. The analysis showed that a 10 per cent increase in risky events in the domestic economy increases imports by 0.65 per cent. This result is probable because risk could potentially disrupt the production of goods and services by domestic producers. As such, domestic producers would be unable to meet domestic demand and, therefore, goods would have to be sourced from external markets. On the export side, risk was found to have quite a substantial negative impact. A 10 per cent increase in the incidence of risky events decreased bilateral trade by 10 per cent. This result is intuitive because risk in the domestic economy is expected to affect exports more than imports. This result was also expected because risky events in the domestic economy affect the production of goods. This means the exporting country would have fewer goods available to satisfy domestic demand and even fewer for export. According to the results, aggregate risk on the importing economy leads to an increase in bilateral trade, whereas it decreased bilateral trade on the exporting end. This means that risk is a major impediment for countries with export-promoting trade policies. The policy implications are that, SACU member states need to build their individual and collective resilience through effective risk mitigation policies and strategies. SACU operates the common revenue pool (CRP), which is a form of risk mitigation, but it needs proper management. The CRP has a customs component which compensates Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, and Namibia for the trade diverting exploits of South Africa in the bloc. There is also a developmental component which is meant to fund developmental projects. The development component of the pool needs to be channelled towards infrastructural development to reduce transportation costs. This needs to be coupled with interventions that build the resilience of domestic producers since risk was found to impede exports. This would reduce the high dependence on the South Africa economy by the other countries in the SACU bloc. / Thesis (PhD (Agricultural Economics))--University of Pretoria, 2021. / African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / PhD (Agricultural Economics) / Unrestricted

The Cotonou Agreement introduces never fundamental principles with respect to trade between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries relative to the Lome Convention: in particular non-reciprocal preferential market access for ACP economies will only last until 1 January 2008. After that date, it will be replaced by a string of Economic Partnership Agreements (E PA) meant to progressively liberalise trade in a reciprocal way. The progressive removal of barriers to trade is expected to result in the establishment of Free Trade Agreements between the EU and ACP regional groups in accordance with the relevant WTO rules and help further existing regional integration efforts among the ACP. Most discussions or economic development in Africa focus on regional integration as an important element. From the first post-colonial meetings. African leaders emphasised regional integration as a key element of their strategies. In the most recent African plan for economic development, the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD), regional and sub regional approaches to development arc again a key element. The plan sees the small size of countries, low incomes, and consequently limited markets as a limit to economies of scale, thus denying attractive returns to investors and in o doing constraining the diversification of production and exports. This is the key reason for pooling resources in order to enhance regional economic integration. The decision by Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland to sign the interim EPA came in the result of SACU's failure to negotiate as a bloc with a view to sign the EPA. In this research, the following statistical techniques were applied: t-test, f-test, regression analysis and its forecasts model for seven Southern African Development Community Economic Partnership Agreement (SADC EPA) group trading with the European Union, is used to simulate the opportunities and benefits of EPAs for countries or the SADC region. Simulation results show that EPAs with the EU are welfare-enhancing for SADC overall. leading also to substantive increases in real GOP. For most countries further gains may arise from intra-SADC liberalization. / Thesis (M.Com.(Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2011

Regional integration, defined as a process in which countries enter into agreements to enhance regional trade, economic and political cooperation, remains an integral part of Africa’s development strategy as evidenced by the proliferation of regional integration agreements on the continent. The implications of these regional agreements on the strategy and operations of multinational corporations on the continent is a question that has received little attention, and as a result, largely remains unanswered. The East African Community, the regional intergovernmental organisation between the Republics of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, may lay claim to the position of being the most advanced regional block in Africa with respect to progress made at implementing integration objectives. As such, the impact that deepening integration may have had on multinationals operating in the East African Community evokes much interest and attention. This research therefore interrogates the implications of deepening regional integration on business strategy in the East African Community. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

A integração comercial entre países vem ocorrendo através de negociações multilaterais e acordos regionais. As teorias de comércio internacional dizem que as primeiras provocam aumento de bem-estar. Entretanto, não há consenso sobre os efeitos dos segundos. O papel deste trabalho é justamente avaliar os impactos de dois acordos comerciais, o Mercosul e o Nafta, sobre dois critérios de bem-estar, a criação e o desvio de comércio. Isso é feito através da estimação de equações gravitacionais para dados em painel, com a inclusão de variáveis dummy para captar a relação intra e extra-bloco, conforme metodologia apresentada por Endoh (1999). Os resultados apontaram que não ocorreu criação de comércio em ambos os acordos. O Nafta foi seguido por desvio de comércio e o Mercosul apresentou dificuldades na mensuração do mesmo. / The commercial integration between countries has been taking place through multilateral negotiations and regional agreements. Economic theories of international trade say that the first one improves welfare. However, there is no consensus about the second one. The aim of this dissertation is just to evaluate the effects of two agreements, Mercosur and Nafta, on two concepts of welfare, trade creation and trade diversion. This is done through the estimation of gravity equations by panel data methods, with dummy variables to detect intra-bloc and extra-bloc relations, according to the methodology of Endoh (1999). The results suggested that trade creation has not occurred in both agreements. Nafta was followed by trade diversion and Mercosur presented difficulties in measuring this component.

Economic globalization at post-Cold War era brings new opportunities and challenges for economic development in each country. Regionalism is the main feature of multipolar international systems and globalization and regionalization are two main powers to push current international politics and economy development forward. Since China reformed and opened the policy in 1978, fast economic growth has made China become the regional leader to obtain regional politics and economy advantages through good-neighborly diplomacy. Moreover, ASEAN consists of medium and small countries and has to build up the safety for the Nationals and regions as so to strengthen the integration of politics and economy. Due to the painful lessons of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, the turning point contributes both parties to establish ¡§China-ASEAN FTA¡¨ in 2010. Taiwan is located at the center of west Pacific which is the major juncture of North East Asia and Southeast Asia and has the superiority of geographical conditions. Taiwan is a trade-oriented country and Taiwan, China and ASEAN have close economic and trade relations. Taiwan depends deeply on China¡¦s economy and trade and the establishment of ¡§China-ASEAN FTA¡¨ will cause crowding effect to Taiwan¡¦s economy and trade. Due to international blockaded by China¡¦s ¡§one China¡¨ policy, ASEAN maintains separation strategy of economy and trade to Taiwan. During the economic globalization, advancing Regional Trade Agreement or allying with bilateral trade has become the strategy for each country to boost global competitiveness through regional economic integration. Therefore, stable domestic political environment is one of the main elements to affect national diplomacy and security policy. Cross-Strait relations in politics are full of complex confrontation and contradiction. After Ma Ying-jeou exercised the power, both sides opened the negotiation way and economic issues have become the most important focus. Both sides started with theory of neofunctionalism and the precondition is to put the controversy about both sides¡¦ sovereignty aside but normalize the economic and trade relations. Both sides reopened the negotiation which is the foundation to build up mutual trust and reciprocity and mutual benefit is the ultimate goal. Opposite ideology shall be put aside and Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement shall be signed to ensure the economic safety and cooperation between both sides in response to the impact of establishing ¡§China-ASEAN FTA¡¨ to settle a stable economic relation to both sides.

¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@¡@Abstract ¡@¡@In 1997 when Hong kong was returned to mainland China, one state - two systems was promoted. Politics was governed by basic laws. But on economic aspect, it was not until the promotion of CEPA that the economic development was apparently led by the Government, which is completely different from Hong Kong's free marketing trade. Such is the focus of all. The treaty signed between China and Hong kong came into effect in January, 2004. The content mainly includes in three areas -tax -relief on trade products, the import of service trade and investment coporation. CEPA has been carried out for the passed two years, and Hong kong's economic has since climbing upward along side with the tide of the world. To the Taiwanese bussinessmen this has become an increased investment competition stress for them in mainland China. And in turn it might affect Taiwan's economic status. So the influence is profound. ¡@¡@This article first tries to understand the related theories of regional economic integration. Focusing on the present stage after China and Hong Kong signed the treaty CEPA, to observed the operation of the allotment of political strategy between the Central government, localities and Hong Kong. To further understand through refering to all the problems and observation analysis done by experts. To practically understanding the practice of political strategy allotment and the interaction between various regions. With an attempt of analysing the value of political strategies which could in turn benefit analysis study on the adjustment of various trade strtegies. Analysing each and every factor that might cause the future economic development of Hong Kong and Taiwan which includes Govrnments setting of political strategies, international factor and China factor. Try to totally comprehend the role plays by Hong Kong and its interaction with other regional and international economic and trade On the other hand , it is to merge this article's diverse analysis on the impact of CEPA against Taiwan. And to suggest countermeasures in regards to the development of such situation. So as to enhance our competitiveness and to avoid the risk of being cornered. ¡@¡@This context intents to grant the basic introduction of regional economic integration to those who are concerned with China - Hong Kong's CEPA. It also serives as a reference to broaden the sight of business administraters. Last but not least, your comments are most appreciated. Key words¡GCEPA ¡BTheory of integration,regional economic integration,Pan Pearl River Delta¡]PPRD¡^

This dissertation consists of three essays in international trade. The first chapter analyzes integration strategies of Korean firms that involve producing final products and providing post-production services for serving geographically separate foreign markets: high-income and low-income countries. I present a model in which heterogeneous firms must provide services for products through their subsidiaries in host countries, but can produce output in different locations. The model shows that the firm's equilibrium decision depends on its own productivity level and economic variables that affect production location and providing services. Using plant- and firm-level data of Korean firms, the empirical analysis provides the results that support the model's predictions. The second chapter analyzes the effects of regional economic integrations on investment patterns among Korean multinational firms. Using Korea's middle-income status, we develop a model in which heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal FDI strategies for serving different regions: a developed (EEA) and a developing (AFTA) trade integrated regions. Following reduced trade costs between countries inside the trade integrated region, our model predicts that integrating into a regional economic zone affects firms with low productivity levels to enter the region via complex FDI strategies. Depending on the size of the region, however, complex FDI strategies differ such that firms investing in developed region tend to undertake local and export sales to the third country, whereas firms investing in developing region are more likely to engage in not only local and export sales to the third country, but also export sales to the parent country. The empirical analysis confirms the effect of different regional economic integrations on the strategy of firms with different productivity levels. The last chapter examines the conditions under which technology spillovers through workers' movement occur between foreign affiliates in the host country and determine whether such spillovers can affect the exporters' decisions to switch their strategies to serve foreign markets via FDI. Developing a simple two-period duopoly model, I find that the occurrence of technology spillovers is dependent on firm and host country characteristics such that spillovers are more likely to arise when firms have similar technology capabilities and in countries that incur low cost of training local workers. Under these circumstances, exporters are more likely to switch to FDI for serving foreign markets. However, I find that transport costs of goods have ambiguous effect on the occurrence of spillovers and thus, do not play a marginal role in exporters' decision. / text

La région andine est un territoire constitué par quatre pays d'Amérique Latine : la Bolivie, la Colombie, l'Equateur et le Pérou, regroupés au sein d'une même association régionale, le Pacte Andin, depuis 1969. Ce Pacte porte l'appellation de Communauté Andine des Nations (CAN), depuis 1996. L'objectif de la thèse est de qualifier le processus régional actuellement à l´œuvre dans la CAN, en utilisant comme point de départ la typologie des processus régionaux établie par Figuière et Guilhot (2006, 2007, 2009) qui permet de distinguer et de qualifier les deux piliers de l'intégration économique régionale : l'intensification des flux économiques intra régionaux et l'institutionnalisation des relations interétatiques, soit, la régionalisation et le régionalisme. L'analyse va permettre de montrer que, si des nombreuses institutions aux vocations très variées ont vu le jour dans la CAN au fil de quatre décennies, la part des échanges intra régionaux n'est quant à elle pas parvenue à franchir le seuil des 10% sur cette période. Ces résultats témoignent d'une part, de la mise en place progressive d'un régionalisme en profondeur, dans la mesure où les réglementations qui sont élaborées par les institutions régionales provoquent l'harmonisation de pratiques à l'intérieur des Etats-nations, et d'autre part, de l'absence d'une véritable régionalisation. Le processus actuellement à l'œuvre au sein de la CAN ne peut donc être qualifié d'intégration économique régionale (IER). L´attraction exercée par l´économie américaine constitue l´un des facteurs explicatifs de ce décalage entre le processus institutionnel régionale plus sophistiqué et une régionalisation qui ne démarre pas. / Andean region consists of four Latin American countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru unified within a regional association, Andean Pact, in 1969, that became the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) in 1996. The purpose of this thesis is to identify the regional process that is actually being implemented within CAN. In this aim, we use the typology of regional processes established by Figuière and Guilhot (2006, 2007, and 2009) as the starting point of analysis. This analytical framework leads to identify two distinct pillars in regional economic integration: intensification of intra-regional economic flows and institutionalization of interstate relations, namely regionalism and regionalization. This analysis will show that, even though numerous institutions with various purposes emerged within CAN during the last four decades, the proportion of intra-regional trade did not exceed 10% during this period. These results reflect on the one hand, the phase-in of regionalism in depth, insofar as the regulations that are developed by regional institutions cause the harmonization of practices within nation States, and on the other hand, the absence of a genuine regionalization.. On the other hand, they point to a lack of a sound regionalization. Therefore the ongoing CAN process cannot be qualified as a regional economic integration (IER). This discrepancy between a more sophisticated regional institutional framework and a regionalization that does not take off may partially be explained by the significant economic attractiveness of the US economy.

A integração comercial entre países vem ocorrendo através de negociações multilaterais e acordos regionais. As teorias de comércio internacional dizem que as primeiras provocam aumento de bem-estar. Entretanto, não há consenso sobre os efeitos dos segundos. O papel deste trabalho é justamente avaliar os impactos de dois acordos comerciais, o Mercosul e o Nafta, sobre dois critérios de bem-estar, a criação e o desvio de comércio. Isso é feito através da estimação de equações gravitacionais para dados em painel, com a inclusão de variáveis dummy para captar a relação intra e extra-bloco, conforme metodologia apresentada por Endoh (1999). Os resultados apontaram que não ocorreu criação de comércio em ambos os acordos. O Nafta foi seguido por desvio de comércio e o Mercosul apresentou dificuldades na mensuração do mesmo. / The commercial integration between countries has been taking place through multilateral negotiations and regional agreements. Economic theories of international trade say that the first one improves welfare. However, there is no consensus about the second one. The aim of this dissertation is just to evaluate the effects of two agreements, Mercosur and Nafta, on two concepts of welfare, trade creation and trade diversion. This is done through the estimation of gravity equations by panel data methods, with dummy variables to detect intra-bloc and extra-bloc relations, according to the methodology of Endoh (1999). The results suggested that trade creation has not occurred in both agreements. Nafta was followed by trade diversion and Mercosur presented difficulties in measuring this component.