A strong risk culture is critical for any organisation to manage its risks. Recent reports from the Auditor-General about a South African government institution (Auditor General of South Africa, 2014) demonstrated that its risks were not being adequately mitigated. The purpose of the study reported on here has therefore been to put this judgement to the test and, because no recognised instrument could be found to evaluate the risk culture, an instrument was developed. Many of the risk culture assessment frameworks available have been developed by consulting companies which could be of value to organisations however this study chose to focus mainly on academic literature. In this descriptive study we used a focus group to identify the possible strengths and weaknesses of the prevailing risk culture, following which a questionnaire was designed and used to assess the current risk culture of the organisation. The results were used to evaluate the risk culture with the aim of proposing steps in which to embed a risk culture. We found that the existing risk culture does not contribute to this organisation’s capacity to manage its risks. We also found that managers in this organisation are not encouraged to take risks to achieve their objectives and employees are not held accountable for the management of risks. In agreement with previous studies which found that training in risk management is important, this study suggests that training should be compulsory for all senior management. This study also found that factors of tone at the top, accountability, communication, risk competence and risk capacity are critical to embed a risk culture in an organisation. This study contributes to the existing literature by suggesting ways in which a risk culture could be embedded in an organisation. The results of this research could be useful to organisations, boards, and risk committees.

HIV risk assessment models use multiple risk factors to build composite index scores to evaluate population level HIV risk. In this report, four risk assessment models were applied to a dataset with demographic, biological, and behavioral risk factors from 927 individuals in high and low HIV burden zip code groups in metro Atlanta, GA. Predictive ability of the risk assessment models were evaluated by comparing their sensitivity and specificity, area under the ROC curve, and mean score difference between high-burden and low-burden zip code area. The results show that the proportion of study participants who scored high in the risk assessment method are significantly greater in high-HIV burden zip code area than in low-HIV burden zip code area in all four risk assessment models. The Clinical Decision Rule risk-scoring model showed the best predictive ability of HIV risk and Binary Risk Indicator model showed the best predictive ability in predicting the residence zip code area.

by Wong Chung Man. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Bibliography: leaves 72-73. / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iv / LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vii / Chapter / Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Cash Flow Destablization due to Floating Exchange Rate --- p.2 / Role of Currency Risk Management in the Past --- p.2 / Changes Perceived in the Future --- p.3 / Scope of the Study --- p.4 / Objectives of the Study --- p.4 / Chapter II. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.6 / Overall Design --- p.6 / Data Used in the Study --- p.6 / Time Covered by the Study --- p.6 / Analytical Tools --- p.7 / Standard Deviation --- p.7 / Linear Correlation --- p.7 / Technical Analysis --- p.8 / Fundamental Analysis --- p.10 / Chapter III. --- DEFINITION OF CURRENCY RISKS --- p.15 / Non-Recurring --- p.15 / One-Off --- p.15 / Dealing Risk --- p.16 / Recurring --- p.17 / Financial Structural Risk --- p.17 / Business Structural risk --- p.18 / Chapter IV. --- WHY CURRENCY RISKS ARISE --- p.19 / Individual or Household --- p.19 / Investment/Speculation --- p.19 / Overseas Commitment --- p.19 / Corporation or Firm --- p.20 / Risks Indirectly Associated with Foreign Exchange --- p.20 / Risks Directly Associated with Foreign Exchange --- p.23 / Chapter V. --- CURRENCY RISK MANAGEMENT IN 80'S - A RETROSPECT --- p.24 / Change of Sophistication --- p.24 / 1980 - 1984 --- p.24 / 1985 - 1987 --- p.26 / 1988 - 1990 --- p.28 / Currency Characteristics and Correlations --- p.30 / Findings --- p.31 / Weakness of Economic Models --- p.35 / No Stable Relationship Between Current Account and Exchange Rate --- p.35 / Positive Relationship Between Interest Rate and Exchange Rate --- p.35 / Protracted Long Run Movements of Real Exchange Rate --- p.36 / Chapter VI. --- ROLE OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN CURRENCY RISK MANAGEMENT --- p.37 / Concept of Near-Rationality --- p.37 / Exchange Rate Determination in Near-Rational World --- p.40 / Test of Technical Analysis --- p.42 / Chapter VII. --- CONCLUSION --- p.47 / Prospects in the Nineties --- p.48 / APPENDIX --- p.67 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.72

<p><strong>This thesis presents a generic framework for project managers and/or other stakeholders to assist them in qualitatively assessing and evaluating project risks. The main structure of this framework is constructed based on risk management area in PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) standard. Additionally, different best practices and methods in the field of risk management and decision making are studied and embedded in the framework. In spite of being theoretical in nature, the framework can contribute to the project risk management area developed by PMBOK, opening the possibility of further research for its verification.</strong></p>

Thesis (M.Com. (Risk Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2009.

This dissertation develops contributions in the area of supply chain risk assessment and mitigation. In each of the three main chapters, we present and analyze a risk assessment or mitigation problem for supply chains. The first problem is to assess the impact of infrastructure disruptions on supply chain performance; the second problem is to develop an operational control approach to mitigate risks posed by uncertain events that disrupt network synchronization; and the third problem is to analyze the risk posed by an adversary seeking to use a supply chain as a weapon. Chapter II presents a methodology for assessing the excess supply chain costs that arise from a failure of or an attack on a critical supply chain infrastructure component. Different from many subjective risk assessment practices, our methodology provides a systematic approach to search for the most vulnerable supply chain components and measure the economic consequences of disruption. Modeling a supply chain using network flow models, we analyze the impact of disruption by linear programming theory, and propose an efficient assessment algorithm based on the dual network simplex method. Finally, a case study on the U.S. corn export supply chain is presented. Chapter III discusses the mitigation of risks created by transit time uncertainties in less-than-truckload (LTL) line-haul operations. Transit time uncertainty may undermine the performance of the load plan, which specifies the route for each shipment and is synchronized to reduce line-haul costs. In our study, risk assessment of a load plan is performed via a dispatch simulation under randomly generated travel time scenarios. The risk consequence is measured by the average excess operational cost, including transportation cost and handling cost. Compared to existing line-haul network models embedded within integer programming approaches for load plan optimization, the dispatch simulation can evaluate the performance of a load plan more realistically. In addition, a heuristic search algorithm based on "multi-tree pivots" is provided to obtain a cost-efficient load plan that is robust to transit time uncertainties. Chapter IV presents methodology to assess the consequence of risks which arise from the intentional contamination of a food supply chain. Different from many risk management practices, the source of risk in this problem is an intelligent adversary, e.g., a terrorist group, who intends to deliver chemical or biological toxins to consumers using the supply chain. First, a general modeling scheme based on state-space models is provided to describe the dissemination of toxin across consumed products in a food supply chain. Then, a case study based on a representative liquid egg supply chain is presented. Based on the system model, a risk assessment for different supply chain designs is performed by simulation. Moreover, an in-depth analysis is conducted to determine the worst-case consequence given an intelligent attack considering the operational characteristics of the system. The worst-case consequence tool developed is designed to be embedded within any risk assessment approach.

Operationell risk inom banksektorn är ett område under utveckling. Utredningen har behandlat ett ramverk för hantering av operationell risk kallat A Systemic Approach Framework for Operational Risk (SAFOR). Syftet har varit att konkretisera detta ramverk och inom detta utvärdera en metod kallad Damage Evaluation and Effective Prevention (DEEP-metoden) i kombination med ett datoriserat beslutsverktyg benämnt DecideIT. SAFOR hanterar operationell risk som är nära kopplat till företagets processer, personer och system. Dess utformning grundar sig i general system theory, en holistisk verksamhetssyn som minskar risken för överlappning mellan olika riskhanteringsområden. Ramverket är uppde-lat i fyra moduler som hanterar identifiering av risker och riskhanter-ingsstruktur, värdering av olika handlingsalternativ, hantering av riskmått och intervalluppskattningar. DEEP-metoden hanterar identifie-ring av risksituationen och rangordning av olika framtidscenarier. Beslutsverktyget DecideIT är en implementering av DELTA metoden som hanterar intervallskattningar av sannolikheter och värden tillsammans med känslighetsanalyser. Utredningen har genomförts genom litteratur-studie och eget test. Resultatet visar en ökning av ramverkets tillämp-barhet genom införandet av ett processperspektiv där en kartläggning av arbetsflödet visar att DEEP-metoden berör flera moduler inom ramverket. Vid närmare beaktan av ramverkets osäkerhetsmodul klargörs dess syfte till rangordning av alternativ för beslutstagande. Metod och beslutsverktyg inom osäkerhetsmodulen bör hantera osäker-heter, framtidscenarier och vara lättanvänt. Detta visar sig stämma för DEEP-metoden och DecideIT när tillämpbarhetstest utförs. SAFOR anses fungera som grund för helhetsförståelse. Ramverket kan sedan implementeras genom för verksamheten passande metod vilket ökar flexibiliteten mot olika typer av organisationer. Målen för studien anses vara uppfyllda. Fortsatt arbete finns i utformning av tydligare avgräns-ning mellan ramverkets moduler och testning av metoder inom dessa. / The investigation deals with a framework named A Systemic Approach Framework for Operational Risk (SAFOR). The aim is to concretize SAFOR and Evaluate the proposed method of Damage Evaluation and Effective Prevention (DEEP) in combination with the decision tool DecideIT. SAFOR deals with operational risk which is linked to the company's processes, people and systems. The framework is based on a holistic approach, which reduces overlap in risk management and consists of four modules which deal with; identification of risk and risk manage-ment structure, risk-reducing alternatives, risk measurement and interval estimates. The DEEP-method handles Identification of risk and Evalua-tion of future scenarios. DecideIT implements the DELTA-method which handles interval assessments for probabilities and values together with Sensitivity Analysis. The investigation was by Literature Studies and a test. A process perspective is proposed to increase the applicability of SAFOR. It discovered that the DEEP-method intersects the framework´s modules. Investigation of the framework´s uncertainty module reveals its aim to sort decision alternatives and that the method and decision tool applied in it should deal with uncertainties, future scenarios and be easy to use. This proved to be true for the DEEP-method and DecideIT by a test. SAFOR is suited to be a source for understanding the whole-ness and various methods can be implemented inside the framework to increase flexibility. The objective of the study is achieved but there is a need for further effort with interfaces and Testing methods within the framework.

Risk-based corrective action (RBCA) is rapidly becoming an accepted approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. Under a RBCA approach, the risks to human health and the environment associated with a contaminated site are evaluated and appropriate corrective measures are taken as needed to reduce risk to acceptable levels. A series of standard guides of RBCA have been developed by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The major tasks of this study were to (1) perform the sensitiveness analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of each input parameter on the calculated risks, (2) application of Monte Carlo simulation using a statistic software (@RISK) to analyze the distribution probability of inhalation risk, (3) conduct a risk evaluation and risk calculation at a chlorinated-compound contaminated site. Results from the sensitiveness analysis show that the major factors, which play important roles in the risk evaluation including sources of air pollution, vapor transportation rate, pollutant volatilization rate, length and direction of wind, distance of pollutant transport, width of pollution source, and groundwater flow velocity. Results from the Monte Carlo simulation show that the carcinogenic risk is about 15¡Ñ10-6 when the accumulation rate is 95% via inhalation. Moreover, the carcinogenic risk is about 31¡Ñ10-6 when the accumulation rate is 95% via ingestion. The calculated risk levels are higher than the requirement for minimum target risk level (cancer risk of 1x10-6) described in Taiwan¡¦s ¡§Soil and Groundwater Remediation Act¡¨. Results also show that the hazard index of non-carcinogenic risk is about 0.5 via the route of inhalation, which is higher than the minimum target risk level of 1. Moreover, the hazard index of non-carcinogenic risk is about 1.3 via the route of ingestion, which is lower than the acceptable level of 1. Results from the case study show that the major pollutant exposure routes at this chlorinated-compound contaminant site include inhalation of contaminant vapor and groundwater ingestion. Therefore, the input parameters affect the calculated risks include daily intake of drinking water, groundwater infiltration, groundwater flow velocity, aquifer depth, and distance of pollutant transport. Based on the results of risk assessment, it is very important for the decision makers to incorporate remedial activities including institutional controls, engineering controls, and remediation programs from RBCA results. This study provides a streamlined process and guidelines of developing the risk-based decision-making strategy for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

Risk-based corrective action (RBCA) is rapidly becoming an accepted approach for the remediation of contaminated sites. Under a RBCA approach, the risks to human health and the environment associated with a contaminated site are evaluated and appropriate corrective measures are taken as needed to reduce risk to acceptable levels. A series of standard guides of RBCA have been developed by American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The main task of this study was to conduct a risk assessment at a site contaminated with chlorinated organic compounds. The studied site had a chlorinated organic compound leakage incident, which caused groundwater contamination. The contaminants of concern included trichloroethylene (TCE) and dichloroethylene (DCE). The concentrations of TCE and DCE exceeded the control standards of 0.05 and 0.07 mg/L, respectively. The contamination has a tendency to move downstream along with groundwater. The goals of this study were to: (1) conduct risk assessment at the site, and to evaluate the risk of downstream acceptor; (2) analyze the carcinogenicity risk and the possible pollution transmission pathway to provide the management personnel a basis for future site screening, planning and technical improving; (3) evaluate the effect of natural attenuation (NA) processes on risk reduction; and (4) apply Monte Carlo analysis method to conduct uncertainty analysis at the site. In this study, RBCA Tool Kit for Chemical Release, 1.3 edition established by Groundwater Service, Inc. was applied for risk assessment. Moreover, the health risk assessment stimulation system developed by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration was also applied to conduct risk assessment simulation for comparison. The commercial software @RISK and Microsoft¡¦s EXCEL spreadsheet was used to conduct Monte Carlo analysis to analyze risk probability distribution. Results show that the health risk assessment result has indicated that the main risk at this site was through groundwater exposure pathway. If the biodegradation process occurs, the contaminant plume will be controlled and the risk will be reduced. Thus, the total carcinogenicity risk and hazard index (HI) of the downstream residential area will be reduced to acceptable levels (cancer risk < 1 ¡Ñ10-5, and HI < 1). Results from the Monte Carlo simulation show that the carcinogenic risk is about 6.38¡Ñ10-6 when the accumulation rate is 90% via inhalation. The calculated risk levels are higher than the requirement for minimum target risk level (cancer risk of 1x10-6) described in Taiwan¡¦s ¡§Soil and Groundwater Remediation Act¡¨. Results also show that the hazard index of non-carcinogenic risk is about 3.28 via the route of ingestion, which is higher than the acceptable level of 1. Based on the results of risk assessment, it is very important for the decision makers to incorporate remedial activities including institutional controls, engineering controls, and remediation programs from RBCA results. This study provides a streamlined process and guidelines of developing the risk-based decision-making strategy for contaminated sites in Taiwan.

TAUČAS, Valmantas. (2007) Kredito rizikos valdymas Lietuvos komercinuose bankuose. Magistro baigiamasis darbas. Kaunas: Vilniaus universiteto Kauno humanitarinis fakultetas. 124 p. SANTRAUKA RAKTINIAI ŽODŽIAI: ,rizika, rizikos įvertinimas, rizikos valdymas,. Skolinimas yra viena iš pagrindinių tradicinio banko operacijų. Natūralu, kad su šia veikla yra susijusi didžiausia banko rizikos dalis. Kiekvienas bankas prisiima tam tikrą riziką skolindamas verslo organizacijoms ir vartotojams, ir kiekvienas bankas patiria nuostolių dėl blogų paskolų. Tačiau šie nuostoliai gali būti sumažinami iki minimumo, jei sugebama tinkamai įvertinti kredito riziką ir profesionaliai organizuoti bei vykdyti banko kreditavimo funkciją. Kredito rizika yra visiems gerai žinoma ir plačiai nagrinėjama tema finansų ir ypatingai bankininkystės srityje. Šiame darbe jos aktualumas yra grindžiamas tuo, jog tai yra rizika su kuria finansinės institucijos Lietuvoje susiduria savo kasdieniniame darbe nuolatos. Finansinės ir nefinansinės institucijos naudoja daugelį kredito rizikos minimizavimų būdų, tačiau ne visi jie vienodai yra naudingi ir optimalūs kiekvienai finansinei institucijai atskirai. Be to, kredito rizika įgauna vis naujas formas ir veikia vis didesnes banko aktyvų ir užbalansinių įsipareigojimų grupes. Vienu iš kredito rizikos valdymo būdų, yra derama skolininkų mokumo analizė. Tebeaugantis paskolų poreikis taip pat lemia būtinybę bankams tinkamai valdyti kredito riziką ir įvertinti įvairių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / TAUCAS, Valmantas (2007) Credit Risk management in Lithuanian comercial Banks. MBA Graduation Paper. Kaunas: Kaunas Faculty of Humanities, Vilnius University. 124 p. SUMMARY KEYWORDS: Risk, Risk assessment, risk management , Credit risk and loan portfolio management have to be adequately addressed in the whole bank management system. Initially from analyzing credit default and creditworthiness of all the potential clients banks have to apply preventive risk management approach. Finally, bad loans are subject to problems loans management and certain measures have to be applied in order to reduce losses or to retain the loans. Based on the analysis of credit risk management procedures in a certain bank and the whole banking system in Lithuania, banks to enhance their credit risk management process and to apply more modern credit risk management measures. Bankruptcy forecasting and loan losses forecasting models could enhance bank performance in certain cases. Bank loan provisioning techniques have to be designed in a way to show fair value of bank loan portfolio. Effective credit risk management can also be obtained such measures and processes as credit derivatives usage and application of securitization process. However, these are measures that require some changes in regulatory system and law base. The object of this diploma paper is the credit risk and forecasting models in the financial institution. The purpose of this task is the analysis of practicing of forecasting... [to full text]