Orientador: Ciro Antonio Rosolem / Banca: João Domingos Rodrigues / Banca: Enes Furlani Junior / Banca: Celso Jamil Marur / Banca: Luiz Henrique Carvalho / Resumo: O presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar plantas de algodão submetidas a reguladores de crescimento em função das condições ambientais e de absorção dos produtos quando aplicados ou não com adjuvante vegetal. No primeiro experimento foram avaliadas plantas de algodão submetidas ao regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat e regimes de temperatura dia/noite de 25/15, 32/22 e 39/29 °C. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. Foram avaliados parâmetros de crescimento, retenção de estruturas reprodutivas, fisiológicos e anatômicos. No segundo experimento os tratamentos foram constituídos de uma dose de regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat e chlormequat e correspondente a 15,0 g ha–1 do princípio ativo, aplicado com e sem adjuvante. As plantas foram submetidas à lâmina de chuva correspondente a 30 mm após 0; 1,5; 3; 6; 12 e 24 horas da aplicação do regulador, mais um tratamento sem chuva. O delineamento experimental foi o em blocos casualizados com quatro repetições. Foram avaliados parâmetros de crescimento, estruturas reprodutivas, reposição do regulador lavado pela chuva e concentração do regulador na planta. Além disso, foram realizados testes paralelos que visaram determinar a concentração dos produtos nas plantas e o comportamento das plantas em condições de campo submetidas à lavagem do regulador. O uso de adjuvante siliconado contribuiu de maneira significativa para a permanência e/ou absorção dos produtos pelas plantas de algodão; o melhor regime de temperatura para o desenvolvimento das plantas de algodão, bem como para que o regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat possa ter sua ação expressa da melhor forma, foi a de 32/22°C e a reposição do regulador inicialmente aplicado e lavado por chuva se faz necessária para que as plantas tenham o seu crescimento controlado, o que melhora todo o sistema de produção. / Abstract: This research had as objective to evaluate cotton plants submitted to plant growth regulators as affected by environmental and uptake conditions when applied with or without adjuvant. In the first experiment, cotton plants were evaluated when they were submitted to mepiquat chloride and temperature regimes, day/night, of 25/15, 32/22 and 39/29 °C. The experimental design was the completely randomized with five replications. Growth, physiological, reproductive structure retention and anatomical parameters were evaluated related to the plant growth regulator uptake. In the second experiment, treatments were constituted by one rate of plant growth regulator mepiquat chloride and chlormequat chloride of 15 g ha-1 of the active ingredient, applied with and without adjuvant on cotton plants. Plants were submitted to simulated rainfall of 30 mm after 1; 1,5; 3; 6; 12 and 24 hours after plant growth regulators application, plus a treatment without rainfall. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with four replications. The parameters evaluated were: plant growth, reproductive structures, reposition of the plant growth regulator washed by the rainfall and concentration of the plant growth regulators in the plant. Besides, parallel tests were carried out which had as objective to determinate the concentration of the products in the plants and plant growth in field conditions submitted to plant growth regulator wash. A silicon adjuvant contributes in a significant way for the product permanence and/or uptake by the cotton plants. The most adequate temperature regime for plant development, as well as, for mepiquat chloride plant growth regulator to express its action was 32/22°C and the reapplication of the regulator rate initially applied and washed by rainfall was necessary, so the plants could have their growth controlled, what optimizes the whole production system. / Doutor

South Africa, in common with many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, is facing increasing water shortages. Limited available water arising from a low and poorly distributed rainfall, must supply domestic, agricultural, industrial and ecosystem needs. Agricultural activities of smallholder farmers, who largely occupy arid to semi-arid areas, are rainfall-driven as they do not have the capacity to develop conventional water sources, such as boreholes and large dams. This situation has led to persistent food shortages, low income and a lack of investments, resulting in high dependency levels of which examples include over reliance on social grants, household crop production that largely relies on external inputs and availability of cheap unskilled labour. A growing global perception that water for agriculture has low value relative to other value uses could further jeopardize the already over exploited agricultural water. Developing economies such as South Africa are likely to favour, in terms of water allocation, e.g. electricity generation through steam turbines relative to irrigation needs because industry plays a more significant role in the economy. While substantial scientific research has resulted in enhanced yields through in-situ water harvesting and soil and water conservation, as well as crop and soil fertility management and plant breeding, less work has been done to assess the impact of intermittent dry spells on crop yield, particularly with regard to smallholders. Indeed, the interventions that have been promoted to smallholders may provide little buffer against such events. In addition, the increase in yield from many such efforts has been marginal and inconsistent, leading some to conclude that semi-arid environments are hydrologically marginal, have no significant agricultural potential and any attempts to intensify agricultural activities would lead to severe environmental degradation. This study investigated the rainwater harvesting and storage potential among rainfed farmers in a summer-rainfall region of South Africa. The influences of this practice on soil hydraulic properties, water fluxes and crop production is detailed in subsequent chapters. Using historical meteorological data, this study commenced with an investigation of the factors that influence the length of maize (Zea Mays L.) growing seasons notably the prevalence of early season dry spells and late season low temperature which could be responsible for persistent low maize yields amongst smallholder rainfed farmers (Chapter 2). An increasing trend of dry spells was observed which was found to influence sowing dates and the length of the growing season. The influence of no-tillage (NT) as an intervention to secure more root-zone soil moisture was investigated in comparison to conventional tillage (CT) practices. Field experiments, with the aim of quantifying the extent to which water productivity and yields can be improved among smallholder rainfed farmers in the Potshini catchment, Thukela basin; South Africa (Chapter 8), were conducted during both the dry and growing seasons from 2005/06 – 2007/08 seasons at four sites with similar soil textural properties and slopes. Each site was developed as a runoff plot and was fitted with moisture and runoff measuring devices. Meteorological parameters were measured from a weather station installed nearby. A snapshot electrical resistivity survey was used to compliment soil moisture profiling. The analyses of the different measurements provided information on various water flow paths and potential downstream hydrological effects (Chapter 3). The average cumulative runoff was 7% and 9% of seasonal rainfall in NT and CT treatments over the three seasons. Changes over time in soil hydraulic properties due to tillage were examined at two depths through infiltration tests and determination of their bulk densities. These included changes in steady state infiltration rate and hydraulic conductivity (Chapter 4), interaction between soil infiltration and soil characteristics (Chapter 5) and water conducting porosity and water retention (Chapter 6). In 50% of the sites, NT treatments showed significantly higher hydraulic conductivity compared to CT treatments. In response to an unexploited opportunity identified to produce vegetables in winter, an assessment of the potential for runoff water harvesting systems using polyethylene lining as an alternative cost-effective construction method for underground rainwater storage systems, particularly in areas where groundwater levels fluctuate rapidly was undertaken (Chapter 7). The process from conceptualization through design, construction and utilization of the stored water is described and recommendations for the design and construction of such systems made. Finally, various case studies which highlight the potential impact of improved soil profile moisture storage, the additional benefits of water stored in tanks and recommendations for tailored policies to support household food and income generation are made (Chapter 8). / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2009.

The temporal distribution of rainfall , viz. the distribution of rainfall intensity during a storm, is an important factor affecting the timing and magnitude of peak flow from a catchment and hence the flood-generating potential of rainfall events. It is also one of the primary inputs into hydrological models used for hydraulic design purposes. The use of short duration rainfall data inherently accounts for the temporal distribution of rainfall, however, there is a relative paucity of short duration data when compared to the more abundantly available daily data. One method of overcoming this is to disaggregate courser-scale data to a finer resolution, e.g. daily to hourly. A daily to hourly rainfall disaggregation model developed by Boughton (2000b) in Australia has been modified and applied in South Africa. The primary part of the model is the . distribution of R, which is the fraction of the daily total that occurs in the hour of maximum rainfall. A random number is used to sample from the distribution of R at the site of interest. The sample value of R determines the other 23 values, which then undergo a clustering procedure. This clustered sequence is then arranged into 1 of 24 possible temporal arrangements, depending when the hour the maximum rainfall occurs. The structure of the model allows for the production of 480 different temporal distributions with variation between uniform and non-uniform rainfall. The model was then regionalised to allow for application at sites where daily rainfall data, but no short duration data, were available. The model was evaluated at 15 different locations in differing climatic regions in South Africa. At each location, observed hourly rainfall data were aggregated to yield 24-hour values and these were then disaggregated using the methodology. Results show that the model is able to retain the daily total and most of the characteristics of the hourly rainfall at the site, for when both at-site and regional information are used. The model, however, is less capable of simulating statistics related to the sequencing of hourly rainfalls, e.g. autocorrelations. The model also tends to over-estimate design rainfalls, particularly for the shorter durations . / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

A long-term grazing trial was started in 1977 at Armoedsvlakte Research Station, about 10km west of Vryburg, in Tarchonanthus veld of the Ghaap’s Plateau, which is a variation of the Kalahari Thornveld veld type. The main aim of this study was to use the extensive veld condition and animal production data set to investigate the effects and interactions of stocking rate, grazing system applied and seasonal rainfall on veld condition and cattle production. The grazing trial has changed three times since its inception resulting in three different phases. The main changes in veld condition during phase one (1977-1991) was due to density independent effects (e.g. seasonal rainfall) and not density dependent effects (e.g. stocking rate). A major change occurred in 1985 following a multiple year drought. The drought resulted in adverse changes in species composition, basal cover and residual biomass of all treatments. The system did not recover from the drought during phase one, despite well above mean seasonal rainfall for a number of years after the drought. During phase two (1992-1999) and phase three (2000 to present) completely different vegetation dynamics occurred than what was experienced during phase one. Density dependent effects (e.g. stocking rate) were more important in explaining variation in veld condition during these two phases. High stocking rates resulted in adverse changes in species composition, poor basal cover and a low residual biomass production. It is however important to note that seasonal rainfall did explain a significant additional amount of variation in veld condition. This suggests that a continuum of non-equilibrium and equilibrium vegetation dynamics occurred in these two phases. The residual biomass and seasonal rainfall model for phase one indicate completely different results for the gain per animal data. In the seasonal rainfall model, stocking rate does not have a significant effect on gain per animal, but seasonal rainfall and the interaction of stocking rate with seasonal rainfall explains most of the variation in gain per animal. This suggest a continuum of non-equilibrium and equilibrium dynamics and that animal production is more sensitive to seasonal rainfall than to stocking rate, although the significant interaction of stocking rate with seasonal rainfall suggest that the seasonal rainfall effect on animal production is dependant on stocking rate. The residual biomass model however indicates that stocking rate is more important than rainfall in explaining variation in the mass gains per animal. The stocking rate effect on gain per animal was significant and indicated that as stocking rate increased, that gain per animal decreases. Seasonal rainfall and the interaction of stocking rate with seasonal rainfall had no significant effect on gain per animal. The amount of variation explained by the seasonal rainfall model was larger than the residual biomass model and this indicates that rainfall explains more variation in gain per animal, than residual biomass does. This possibly indicates that non-equilibrium effects are stronger than the equilibrium effects, but it is important to notice that stocking rate had a significant effect in some cases. The gain per hectare models (seasonal rainfall and residual biomass) for phase one indicates that stocking rate has a significant effect on gain per hectare. Increasing stocking rates resulted in higher gain per hectare, which suggests that the turning point of the typical “Jones and Sandland model” has not been reached and this might be due to light stocking rates applied during the duration of phase one. The seasonal rainfall model however has significant effects of seasonal rainfall and interactions of stocking rate with seasonal rainfall on gain per hectare. This suggests that the effect of stocking rate is dependent on seasonal rainfall and that seasonal rainfall explain an additional amount of variation in gain per hectare. In general, it appreared that the optimal stocking rate for animal production was higher than those applied during the duration of the trial, but this is due to lower than planned actual stocking rates applied during all three phases of the trial. It is very difficult to determine a generic optimal stocking rate for different rainfall volumes and it is recommended that the actual stocking rate for different ecological zones be determined based on rainfall, biomass, species compos[i]tion, basal cover and available browse and not just on the provisional recommendations. The type of grazing system applied did not show any statistically significant effects on both gain per animal and gain per hectare for the animal production data during phase one. This result is interesting and contradictive to most of the scientific literature where some authors concluded from their studies that rotational grazing systems produce higher animal production than continuous grazing systems, whereas others researchers state that continuous grazing systems produce higher animal production than rotational grazing systems. In phase two both the residual biomass and seasonal rainfall models for phase two did not show any significant effects and interactions of stocking rate, seasonal rainfall level and/or residual biomass on both gain per animal and gain per hectare. Both the residual biomass and seasonal rainfall models for phase three did not show any significant effects and interactions of stocking rate, seasonal rainfall level and/or residual biomass on animal gains per animal. The seasonal rainfall model did not show any any significant effects and interactions of stocking rate, seasonal rainfall level and/or residual biomass on animal gains per hectare. However, the residual biomass model indicated that stocking rate had a significant effect on gain per hectare and the production closely followed the Jones and Sandland (1974) model as at low stocking rates, gain per hectare increases at a rapid rate, but as stocking rates increases to high stocking rates, the rate of increase in gain per hectare declines, until it eventually reaches a turning point, where after gain per hectare declines with increasing stocking rates. Stocking rate only had a significant effect on the condition score of cows during phase two and phase three, as high stocking rates resulted in poor animal condition in both phases. No significant effects and interactions of stocking rate and seasonal rainfall were indicated on calving percentage, weaning percentage, conception rates and percentage of desirable meat produced during phase two. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, [2011].

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2007-04-23Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:40:05Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 souza_fs_dr_botfca.pdf: 850813 bytes, checksum: b2ea4ed97c12f6f0ca8cce6267ea054f (MD5) / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) / O presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar plantas de algodão submetidas a reguladores de crescimento em função das condições ambientais e de absorção dos produtos quando aplicados ou não com adjuvante vegetal. No primeiro experimento foram avaliadas plantas de algodão submetidas ao regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat e regimes de temperatura dia/noite de 25/15, 32/22 e 39/29 °C. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o inteiramente casualizado com cinco repetições. Foram avaliados parâmetros de crescimento, retenção de estruturas reprodutivas, fisiológicos e anatômicos. No segundo experimento os tratamentos foram constituídos de uma dose de regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat e chlormequat e correspondente a 15,0 g ha 1 do princípio ativo, aplicado com e sem adjuvante. As plantas foram submetidas à lâmina de chuva correspondente a 30 mm após 0; 1,5; 3; 6; 12 e 24 horas da aplicação do regulador, mais um tratamento sem chuva. O delineamento experimental foi o em blocos casualizados com quatro repetições. Foram avaliados parâmetros de crescimento, estruturas reprodutivas, reposição do regulador lavado pela chuva e concentração do regulador na planta. Além disso, foram realizados testes paralelos que visaram determinar a concentração dos produtos nas plantas e o comportamento das plantas em condições de campo submetidas à lavagem do regulador. O uso de adjuvante siliconado contribuiu de maneira significativa para a permanência e/ou absorção dos produtos pelas plantas de algodão; o melhor regime de temperatura para o desenvolvimento das plantas de algodão, bem como para que o regulador à base de Cloreto de Mepiquat possa ter sua ação expressa da melhor forma, foi a de 32/22°C e a reposição do regulador inicialmente aplicado e lavado por chuva se faz necessária para que as plantas tenham o seu crescimento controlado, o que melhora todo o sistema de produção. / This research had as objective to evaluate cotton plants submitted to plant growth regulators as affected by environmental and uptake conditions when applied with or without adjuvant. In the first experiment, cotton plants were evaluated when they were submitted to mepiquat chloride and temperature regimes, day/night, of 25/15, 32/22 and 39/29 °C. The experimental design was the completely randomized with five replications. Growth, physiological, reproductive structure retention and anatomical parameters were evaluated related to the plant growth regulator uptake. In the second experiment, treatments were constituted by one rate of plant growth regulator mepiquat chloride and chlormequat chloride of 15 g ha-1 of the active ingredient, applied with and without adjuvant on cotton plants. Plants were submitted to simulated rainfall of 30 mm after 1; 1,5; 3; 6; 12 and 24 hours after plant growth regulators application, plus a treatment without rainfall. The experimental design was in randomized blocks with four replications. The parameters evaluated were: plant growth, reproductive structures, reposition of the plant growth regulator washed by the rainfall and concentration of the plant growth regulators in the plant. Besides, parallel tests were carried out which had as objective to determinate the concentration of the products in the plants and plant growth in field conditions submitted to plant growth regulator wash. A silicon adjuvant contributes in a significant way for the product permanence and/or uptake by the cotton plants. The most adequate temperature regime for plant development, as well as, for mepiquat chloride plant growth regulator to express its action was 32/22°C and the reapplication of the regulator rate initially applied and washed by rainfall was necessary, so the plants could have their growth controlled, what optimizes the whole production system.

This research has undertaken two key mandates. One was to develop modifications to the African Catchment Game (ACG), a role playing simulation game, in order to simulate rainfall and water management processes representative of the southern African context. The other was to understand what, if any, learning associated with water management issues had taken place as a result of playing the ACG. The modification process took the form of an action research process. The initial modifications were trialed with South African students as part of their undergraduate Geography course offered at Rhodes University, South Africa. Subsequent modifications were implemented over a five month period with three diverse participant groups, namely Finnish, American and South African participants. An interpretive research orientation was employed in order to analyse both the qualitative and quantitative data that was generated. Pre- and Post-Game Questionnaires were used in order to identify the learning and understanding which the participants constructed as a result of playing the ACG. The Chi-Square Test was also applied to each of the pre- and post- questions to establish statistical significance. Subsequent analysis of these questions identified and traced patters and trends associated with learning and understanding across the three game runs. This research study draws on social constructivism and experiential learning as the dominant education theory that underpins it. Results revealed that for all three game runs learning took place. Participants identified dominant themes and environmental dimensions both before and after playing the ACG. The analysis of these responses indicated a deeper awareness of water as a contributing factor for sustainable economic development while the game runs enabled the researcher to adjust the water availability within each game run until rainfall and water management processes representative of a southern African context were successfully simulated in the last game run.

Round Island is a small (208 ha) islet of volcanic origin located 22.5 km north east of mainland Mauritius and has been classified as a nature reserve since 1957. Two sites were chosen for the installation of environmental monitoring equipment. A series of Gerlach troughs were installed to capture surface sediment transported by runoff, which were used to document sediment yields and determine the particle size distribution. Overall, rainfall and erosivity on Round Island is far less, when compared to mainland Mauritius. However, erosivity from Round Island (2,314.76 MJ.mm.ha-1.h-1.yr-1) is slightly above the global average of 2,190 MJ.mm.ha-1.h-1.yr-1. In terms of sediment transport, the annual sediment movement rates for Round Island were established during this study (0.1248 t.ha-1.yr-1) and were found to be considerably lower than Mauritius (10 t.ha-1.yr-1), as well as other tropical island such as Kauai (0.86 t.ha-1.yr-1) and O’ahu (0.6 t.ha-1.yr-1). Thus, although the estimated rates of soil erosion are very low for humid tropical regions, these rates only reflect the contemporary environmental conditions and cognisance of the landscape history should be incorporated into assessments of soil erosion / Geography / M. Sc. (Geography)

Os impactos causados por precipitações em áreas urbanas indicam a necessidade da abordagem de medidas para gerenciamento da drenagem urbana, de modo a evitar prejuízos originados dos escoamentos superficiais, como as inundações. A drenagem urbana brasileira é considerada defasada, visto que o conceito da canalização prevalece sobre a reservação e a infiltração, priorizando o rápido escoamento ao invés do descarte controlado dos volumes reservados. A cidade de Curitiba-PR conta com o Decreto Municipal Número 176/2007, responsável pelos critérios para implantação dos mecanismos de contenção de cheias. Porém, as diretrizes de projeto estabelecidas não garantem eficiência mínima para os reservatórios de contenção, visto que a mesma pode variar em função da sua área de base, lâmina de água e diâmetro do orifício regulador de vazão. Nesta pesquisa é proposto um método de dimensionamento, estabelecendo critérios que relacionam as áreas impermeabilizadas dos lotes aos parâmetros de dimensionamento dos reservatórios, garantindo a função desta medida de controle. Considerando que os reservatórios devem proporcionar à dada área impermeabilizada retornar à sua condição de pré-urbanização em termos de vazões de contribuição, estima-se o valor necessário para a redução de vazão de pico em 70,24%, obtido da relação entre os coeficientes de escoamento superficial em ambas as condições de impermeabilização. A partir de simulações de propagação de vazão com o Método de Pulz em áreas impermeabilizadas genéricas em intervalos constantes adotados para o estudo, são obtidos gráficos das características geométricas dos reservatórios em função da vazão de contribuição que cada área genérica recebe. A partir da análise comportamental dos mesmos são propostas equações de dimensionamento para os parâmetros de volume, área de base, altura da lâmina de água e diâmetro do orifício regulador de vazão, relacionando-os às áreas impermeabilizadas presentes, de modo que seja garantida a eficiência mínima necessária. Ao comparar os resultados obtidos com o previsto na legislação municipal, além da possibilidade de melhoria na eficiência dos reservatórios com a utilização de outros parâmetros de dimensionamento, há condição de redução de 24,14% do volume em relação ao cálculo atual. / The impacts caused by rainfall in urban areas indicate the need to approach measures for managing urban drainage, in order to avoid losses arising from runoff, such as floods. Brazilian urban drainage is considered outdated, because the concept of channeling is more used than the reservation and infiltration, prioritizing fast flowing instead of controlled disposal of reserved volumes. The city of CuritibaPR has a Municipal Decree Number 176/2007, responsible for the criteria for implementation of flood containment mechanisms. However, the established design guidelines do not guarantee minimum performance for flood detention tanks, since it may vary depending on their base area, water depth and flow regulator’s orifice diameter. In this research is proposed a sizing method, establishing criteria that relate waterproofed areas of the lots to the tank design parameters, ensuring the function of this control measure. Considering that tanks must provide the given waterproofed area return to its condition before urbanization in contributing flows, determine the value of the required peak flow reduction in 70,24%, obtained from the relation between the coefficients of runoff in both waterproofing conditions. From flow propagation simulations with Pulz Method in generic waterproofed areas at constant intervals adopted for the research, graphs of the geometric characteristics of the reservoirs are obtained as a function of the contribution flow that each generic area receives. From the behavioral analysis, sizing equations are proposed for the parameters of volume, base area, water depth and flow regulator’s orifice diameter, relating them to the present waterproofed areas and ensuring the required efficiency. When comparing the results obtained with the provisions of municipal legislation, in addition to the possibility of improving the efficiency of the reservoirs using other sizing parameters, it points to the possibility of reducing the calculated volume of 24,14% in relation to the current calculation.

No description available.

Climate change and a growing demand for freshwater resources due to population increases and socio-economic changes will make water a limiting factor (in terms of both quantity and quality) in development. The need for reliable quantitative estimates of water availability cannot be over-emphasised. However, there is frequently a paucity of the data required for this quantification as many basins, especially in the developing world, are inadequately equipped with monitoring networks. Existing networks are also shrinking due mainly to shortages in human and financial resources. Over the past few decades mathematical models have been used to bridge the data gap by generating datasets for use in management and policy making. In southern Africa, the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed relatively popular use as a water resources estimation tool. However, it is acknowledged that models are abstractions of reality and the data used to drive them is imperfect, making the model outputs uncertain. While there is acknowledgement of the limitations of modelled data in the southern African region among water practitioners, there has been little effort to explicitly quantify and account for this uncertainty in water resources estimation tools and explore how it affects the decision making process. Uncertainty manifests itself in three major areas of the modelling chain; the input data used to force the model, the parameter estimation process and the model structural errors. A previous study concluded that the parameter estimation process for the Pitman model contributed more to the global uncertainty of the model than other sources. While the literature abounds with uncertainty estimation techniques, many of these are dependent on observations and are therefore unlikely to be easily applicable to the southern African region where there is an acute shortage of such data. This study focuses on two aspects of making hydrologic predictions in ungauged basins. Firstly, the study advocates the development of an a priori parameter estimation process for the Pitman model and secondly, uses indices of hydrological functional behaviour to condition and reduce predictive uncertainty in both gauged and ungauged basins. In this approach all the basins are treated as ungauged, while the historical records in the gauged basins are used to develop regional indices of expected hydrological behaviour and assess the applicability of these methods. Incorporating uncertainty into the hydrologic estimation tools used in southern Africa entails rethinking the way the uncertain results can be used in further analysis and how they will be interpreted by stakeholders. An uncertainty framework is proposed. The framework is made up of a number of components related to the estimation of the prior distribution of the parameters, used to generate output ensembles which are then assessed and constrained using regionalised indices of basin behavioural responses. This is premised on such indices being based on the best available knowledge covering different regions. This framework is flexible enough to be used with any model structure to ensure consistent and comparable results. While the aim is to eventually apply the uncertainty framework in the southern African region, this study reports on the preliminary work on the development and testing of the framework components based on South African basins. This is necessitated by the variations in the availability and quality of the data across the region. Uncertainty in the parameter estimation process was incorporated by assuming uncertainty in the physical and hydro-meteorological data used to directly quantify the parameter. This uncertainty was represented by the range of variability of these basin characteristics and probability distribution functions were developed to account for this uncertainty and propagate it through the estimation process to generate posterior distributions for the parameters. The results show that the framework has a great deal of potential but can still be improved. In general, the estimated uncertain parameters managed to produce hydrologically realistic model outputs capturing the expected regimes across the different hydro-climatic and geo-physical gradients examined. The regional relationships for the three indices developed and tested in this study were in general agreement with existing knowledge and managed to successfully provide a multi-criteria conditioning of the model output ensembles. The feedback loop included in the framework enabled a systematic re-examination of the estimation procedures for both the parameters and the indices when inconsistencies in the results were identified. This improved results. However, there is need to carefully examine the issues and problems that may arise within other basins outside South Africa and develop guidelines for the use of the framework. / iText 1.4.6 (by lowagie.com)