The world’s freshwater resources are being placed under increasing pressure owing to growth in population, economic development, improved standards of living, agricultural intensification (linked mainly to irrigation), pollution and mismanagement of available freshwater resources. Already, in many parts of the Orange River Catchment, water availability has reached a critical stage. It has become increasingly evident that water related problems can no longer be resolved by water managers alone, owing to the problems becoming more interconnected with other development related issues, as well as with social, economic, environmental, legal and political factors. With the advent of climate change and the likelihood of increases in extreme events, water managers’ awareness of uncertainties and critical reflections on the adequacy of current management approaches is increasing. In order to manage water resources effectively a more holistic approach is required than has hitherto been the case, in which technological, social and economic development are linked with the protection of natural ecosystems and with dependable projections of future climatic conditions. To assess the climate risk connected with rural and urban water management, and to develop adaptive strategies that can respond to an increasingly variable climate that is projected into the future and help to reduce adverse impacts, it is necessary to make connections between climate related hazards, climate forecasts as well as climate change, and the planning, design, operation, maintenance, and rehabilitation of water related infrastructure. Therefore, adaptive water resources management (AWRM), which in essence is “learning by doing”, is believed to be a timely extension of the integrated water resources management (IWRM) approach as it acknowledges uncertainty and is flexible in that it allows for the adjustment of actions based on information learned about the system. Furthermore, it is suggested that climate risk management be imbedded within the AWRM framework. The objective of the research presented in this thesis is to develop techniques to integrate state-of-the-art climate projection scenarios – which forms part of the first step of the adaptive management cycle – downscaled to the regional/local scale, with hydro-climatic hazard determination – which forms part of the first step in the risk management process – in order to simulate projected impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment (defined in this study as those areas of the catchment that exist within South Africa and Lesotho). The techniques developed and the results presented in this study can be used by decision-makers in the water sector in order to make informed proactive decisions as a response to projected future impacts of hydro-climatic hazards – all within a framework of AWRM. Steps towards fulfilling the above-mentioned objective begins by way of a comprehensive literature review; firstly of the study area, where it is identified that the Orange River Catchment is, in hydro-climatic terms, already a high risk environment; and secondly, of the relevant concepts involved which are, for this specific study, those pertaining to climate change, and the associated potential hydro-climatic impacts. These include risk management and its components, in order identify how hazard identification fits into the broader concept of risk management; and water resources management practices, in order to place the issues identified above within the context of AWRM. This study uses future projections of climate from five General Circulation Models, all using the SRES A2 emission scenario. By and large, however, where techniques developed in this study are demonstrated, this is done using the projections from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM GCM which, relative to the other four available GCMs, is considered to provide “middle of the road” projections of future climates over southern Africa. These climate projections are used in conjunction with the locally developed and widely verified ACRU hydrological model, as well as a newly developed hydro-climatic database at a finer spatial resolution than was available before, to make projections regarding the likelihood and severity of hydro-climatic hazards that may occur in the Orange River Catchment. The impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards, viz. design rainfalls, design floods, droughts and sediment yields are investigated, with the results including a quantitative uncertainty analysis, by way of an index of concurrence from multiple GCM projections, for each of the respective analyses. A new methodology for the calculation of short duration (< 24 hour) design rainfalls from daily GCM rainfall projections is developed in this study. The methodology utilises an index storm approach and is based on L-moments, allowing for short duration design rainfalls to be estimated at any location in South Africa for which daily GCM rainfall projections exist. The results from the five GCMs used in this study indicate the following possible impacts of climate change on hydro-climatic hazards in the Orange River Catchment: · Design rainfalls of both short and long duration are, by and large, projected to increase by the intermediate future period represented by 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the more distant future period 2081 - 2100. · Design floods are, by and large, projected to increase into the intermediate future, and even more into the more distant future; with these increases being larger than those projected for design rainfalls. · Both meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to decrease, both in terms of magnitude and frequency, by the period 2046 - 2065, with further decreases projected for the period 2081 - 2100. Where increases in meteorological and hydrological droughts are projected to occur, these are most likely to be in the western, drier regions of the catchment. · Annual sediment yields, as well as their year-to-year variability, are projected to increase by the period 2046 - 2065, and even more so by the period 2081 - 2100. These increases are most likely to occur in the higher rainfall, and especially in the steeper, regions in the east of the catchment. Additionally, with respect to the above-mentioned hydro-climatic hazards, it was found that: · The statistic chosen to describe inter-annual variability of hydro-climatic variables may create different perceptions of the projected future hydroclimatic environment and, hence, whether or not the water manager would decide whether adaptive action is necessary to manage future variability. · There is greater uncertainty amongst the GCMs used in this study when estimating design events (rainfall and streamflow) for shorter durations and longer return periods, indicating that GCMs may still be failing to simulate individual extreme events. · The spatial distribution of projected changes in meteorological and hydrological droughts are different, owing to the complexities introduced by the hydrological system · Many areas may be exposed to increases in hydrological hazards (i.e. hydrological drought, floods and/or sediment yields) because, where one extreme is projected to decrease, one of the others is often projected to increase. The thesis is concluded with recommendations for future research in the climate change and hydrological fields, based on the experiences gained in undertaking this study. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

It has become accepted that long-term global mean temperatures have increased over the twentieth century. However, whether or not climate change can be detected at a local or regional scale is still questionable. The numerous new record highs and lows of temperatures recorded over South Africa for 2003, 2004 and 2005 provide reason to examine whether changes can already be detected in southern Africa's temperature record and modelled hydrological responses. As a preface to a temperature detection study, a literature reVIew on temperature detection studies, methods used and data problems encountered, was undertaken. Simple statistics, linear regression and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were the methods reviewed for detecting change. Southern Africa's temperature record was thereafter examined for changes, and the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was applied to time series of annual means of minimum and maximum temperature, summer means of maximum temperature and winter means of minimum temperature. Furthermore, changes in the upper and lower ends of the temperature distribution were examined. The Mann-Kendall test was applied to numbers of days and numbers of 3 consecutive days abovelbelow thresholds of 10th and 90th percentiles of minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as abovelbelow threshold values of minimum (i.e. 0°) and maximum (i.e. 40°C) temperatures. A second analysis, using the split sample technique for the periods 1950 - 1970 vs 1980 - 2000, was performed for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, summer means of daily maximum temperatures, winter means of daily minimum temperatures and coefficients of variability of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Two clear clusters of warming emerged from almost every analysis, viz. a cluster of stations in the Western Cape and a cluster of stations around the midlands ofKwaZulu-Natal, along with a band of stations along the KwaZulu-Natal coast. Another fmding was a less severe frost season over the Free State and Northern Cape. While certain changes are, therefore, evident in temperature parameters, the changes are not uniform across southern Africa. Precipitation and evaporation are the primary drivers of the hydrological cycle, with temperature an important factor in the evaporation process. Thus, with changes in various temperature parameters having been identified over many parts of southern Africa, the question arose whether any changes were evident as yet in hydrological responses. The ACRU model was used to generate daily streamflow values and associated hydrological responses from a baseline land cover, thus eliminating all possible human influences on the catchment and channel. A split-sample analysis of the simulated hydrological responses for the 1950 - 1969 vs 1980 - 1999 periods was undertaken. Trends over time in simulated streamflows were examined for medians, dry and wet years, as well as the range between wet and dry years. The seasonality and concentration of streamflows between the periods 1950 - 1969 and 1980 - 1999 were examined to determine if changes could be identified. Some trends found were marked over large parts of Primary Catchments, and certainly require consideration in future water resources planning. With strong changes over time in simulated hydrological responses already evident in certain Primary Catchments of South Africa using daily rainfall input data from 1950 1999, it, therefore, became necessary to examine the rainfall regimes of the Quaternary Catchments' "driver" rainfall station data in order to determine if these hydrological response changes were supported by changes in rainfall patterns over time. A splitsample analysis was, therefore, performed on the rainfall input of each Quaternary Catchment. Not only were medians considered, but the higher and lower ends of the rainfall distributions were also analysed, as were the number of rainfall events above pre-defined daily thresholds. The changes evident over time in rainfall patterns over southern Africa were found to vary from relatively unsubstantial increases or decreases to significant increase and decreases. However, the changes in rainfall corresponded with the changes noted in simulated streamflow. From the analyses conducted in this study, it has become clear that South Africa's temperature and rainfall, as well as hydrological responses, have changed over the recent past, particularly in certain identifiable hotspots, viz. the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal where significant increases in temperature variables and changes in rainfall patterns were detected. These detected changes in climate need to be considered in future water resources planning. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. / Severe floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh., or River Red Gum, is a commercially valuable yet recognised invasive alien plant (IAP) of riparian zones throughout South Africa. The invasive potential of E. camaldulensis is widely recognised, with specific regulations aimed at the management of E. camaldulensis. E. camaldulensis is known to use large amounts of water, reduce biodiversity, change river morphology and impact hydrological regimes of rivers. In the native range throughout Australia, E. camaldulensis displays a distinct relationship between rainfall, and flood events, for seed dispersal, germination and establishment, and consequently spatial extent, yet little is known about the relationships in the South African context. The aim of this project was to assess the impact of high rainfall and flood events on the establishment and distribution of E. camaldulensis along the Middle Breede River, between Worcester and Swellendam in the Western Cape, by establishing the current spatial extent of E. camaldulensis along the river, identifying flood events since 1950 and evaluating the impact rainfall and flood events had on the spatial extent thereof. Aerial imagery, rainfall, discharge and river level data was obtained dating back to 1980, as well as field data comprising of GPS-bounding of E. camaldulensis stands. Additionally, density measurements were obtained and interviews conducted with land users. Spatial analysis of aerial imagery, coupled with perimeter (GPS) data and density data were used to conduct spatio-temporal analysis, employing GIS and conventional statistical approaches to address the various objectives. Results indicated E. camaldulensis stands had a small overall increase in spatial extent since 1980. Flooding and rainfall events coincided with an increase in occurrence of E. camaldulensis with elevated river levels and frequent flooding, while spatial variation of this relationship was observed. The hydrological regime of the Breede River coincides with a slow increase in spatial extent of E. camaldulensis stands, but no affirmation of a positive real-world relationship was possible using the available data. Results further suggested, based on the current age class composition, that existing stands originated roughly during 1980, possibly due to commercial forestry related seeding into the river. Reduced fragmentation between stakeholders, educational programmes and improved reporting systems were recommended for improved IAP management within the area. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Eucalyptus camaldulensis, of Rooibloekom (RB), is ‘n waardevolle kommersiële, maar erkende indringer plantspesie (IP) wat veral oewersones in Suid-Afrika indring. Die indringerpotensiaal van E. camaldulensis is welbekend, en spesifieke regulasies, gemik op die bestuur van RB en ander spesies is reeds aangeneem. E. camaldulensis is veral bekend vir sy hoë watergebruik, sy vermindering van biodiversiteit, sy vermoë om riviervorme te verander en sy algehele impak op die hidrologiese patroon van riviere waarmee dit in aanraking kom. In sy oorspronklike verspreidingsgebied in Australië toon E. camaldulensis ‘n bepaalde verhouding tussen reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse vir saadverspreiding, ontkieming en vestiging en derhalwe die ruimtelike verspreiding van die spesie; alhoewel hierdie verhouding in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks steeds redelik onverduidelik bly. Die doelwit van hierdie studie was dus om die impak van hoë reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse op die ruimtelike verspreiding en vestiging van E. camaldulensis teenaan die Middel Breëde Rivier, spesifiek tussen Worcester en Swellendam, te evalueer. Hierdie doelwit was bereik deur die historiese ruimtelike verspreiding teenaan die rivier te meet, hoë reënval en vloedgebeurtenisse vanaf 1980 te identifiseer, en die huidige verspreiding en omtrek met GPS te meet. Digtheidafmetings, sowel as onderhoude met belanghebbendes teenaan die rivier was ook opgeneem. Visuele interpretatasie van lugfotos, sowel as omtrek (GPS) en digtheid-data was gebruik om ruimtelike analise uit te voer, deur die gebruik van GIS en konvensionele statistiese metodes, ten einde die doelwitte te evalueer. Resultate dui aan dat E. camaldulensis areas ‘n klein algemene groei getoon het sedert 1980. Hoë-reënval en gereëlde vloedgebeurtenisse het ook gepaard gegaan met ‘n groei van E. camaldulensis oppervlak, alhoewel hierdie verhouding ruimtelike variasie getoon het, met ‘n algemene groei patroon gemerk oor die volledige studietydperk. Ook geen stimulerende verhouding kon vanuit die beskikbare data bevestig word nie. Addisionele resultate het aangedui dat die verspreiding van E. camaldulensis ongeveer 1980 onstaan het, moontlik as gevolg van kommersiële bosbou-aanplanting en verwante saadverspreiding in die rivier vanaf daardie tyd. Aanbevelings ten opsigte van verbeterde indringerbestuur sluit in die beperking van huidige fragmentasie tussen belanghebbendes en betrokke verwyderingsorganisasies, addisionele onderrigprogramme sowel as die verbetering van terugvoersisteme.

Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources estimation, but they are simple representations of reality and are frequently based on inadequate input data and uncertainties in parameter values. Data observation networks are expensive to establish and maintain and often beyond the resources of most developing countries. Consequently, measurements are difficult to obtain and observation networks in many countries are shrinking, hence obtaining representative observations in space and time remains a challenge. This study presents some guidelines on the identification, quantification and reduction of sources of uncertainty in water resources estimation in southern Africa, a data scarce region. The analyses are based on example sub-basins drawn from South Africa and the application of the Pitman hydrological model. While it has always been recognised that estimates of water resources availability for the region are subject to possible errors, the quantification of these uncertainties has never been explicitly incorporated into the methods used in the region. The motivation for this study was therefore to contribute to the future development of a revised framework for water resources estimation that does include uncertainty. The focus was on uncertainties associated with climate input data, parameter estimation (and recognizing the uncertainty due model structure deficiencies) methods and water use data. In addition to variance based measures of uncertainty, this study also used a reservoir yield based statistic to evaluate model output uncertainty, which represents an integrated measure of flow regime variations and one that can be more easily understood by water resources managers. Through a sensitivity analysis approach, the results of the individual contribution of each source of uncertainty suggest regional differences and that clear statements about which source of uncertainty is likely to dominate are not generally possible. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used in identifying parameters which are important withinspecific sub-basins and therefore those to focus on in uncertainty analysis. The study used a simple framework for evaluating the combined contribution of uncertainty sources to model outputs that is consistent with the model limitations and data available, and that allows direct quantitative comparison between model outputs obtained by using different sources of information and methods within Spatial and Time Series Information Modelling (SPATSIM) software. The results from combining the sources of uncertainties showed that parameter uncertainty dominates the contribution to model output uncertainty. However, in some parts of the country especially those with complex topography, which tend to experience high rainfall spatial variability, rainfall uncertainty is equally dominant, while the contributions of evaporation and water use data uncertainty are relatively small. While the results of this study are encouraging, the weaknesses of the methods used to quantify uncertainty (especially subjectivity involved in evaluating parameter uncertainty) should not be neglected and require further evaluations. An effort to reduce data and parameter uncertainty shows that this can only be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality improves. Perhaps the focus should be on maintaining existing networks and concentrating research efforts on making the most out of the emerging data products derived from remote sensing platforms. While this study presents some initial guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in South Africa, there is need to overcome several constraints which are related to data availability and accuracy, the models used and the capacity or willingness to adopt new methods that incorporate uncertainty. The study has provided a starting point for the development of new approaches to modelling water resources in the region that include uncertain estimates.

The world is undergoing rapid changes and the future is uncertain. The changes are related to modification of the landscape due to human activities, such as large and small scale irrigation, afforestation and changes to the climate system. Understanding and predicting hydrologic change is one of the challenges facing hydrologists today. Part of this understanding can be developed from observed data, however, there often too few observations and those that are available are frequently affected by uncertainties. Hydrological models have become essential tools for understanding historical variations of catchment hydrology and for predicting future possible trends. However, most developing countries are faced with poor spatial distributions of rainfall and evaporation stations that provide the data used to force models, as well as stream flow gauging stations to provide the data for establishing models and for evaluating their success. Hydrological models are faced with a number of challenges which include poor input data (data quality and poorly quantified human activities on observed stream flow data), uncertainties associated with model complexity and structure, the methods used to quantify model parameters, together with the difficulties of understanding hydrological processes at the catchment or subbasin. Within hydrological modelling, there is currently a trend of dealing with equifinality through the evaluation of parameter identifiability and the quantification of uncertainty bands associated with the predictions of the model. Hydrological models should not only focus on reproducing the past behaviour of a basin, but also on evaluating the representativeness of the surface and subsurface model components and their ability to simulate reality for the correct reasons. Part of this modelling process therefore involves quantifying and including all the possible sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis has become the standard approach to most hydrological modelling studies, but has yet to be effectively used in practical water resources assessment. This study applied a hydrological modelling approach for understanding the hydrology of a large Tanzanian drainage basin, the Great Ruaha River that has many areas that are ungauged and where the available data (climate, stream flow and existing water use) are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. The Great Ruaha River (GRR) is an upstream tributary of the Rufiji River Basin within Tanzania and covers an area of 86 000 km2. The basin is drained by four main tributaries; the Upper Great Ruaha, the Kisigo, the Little Ruaha and the Lukosi. The majority of the runoff is generated from the Chunya escarpment, the Kipengere ranges and the Poroto Mountains. The runoff generated feeds the alluvial and seasonally flooded Usangu plains (including the Ihefu perennial swamp). The majority of the irrigation water use in the basin is located where headwater sub‐basins drain towards the Usangu plains. The overall objective was to establish uncertain but behavioural hydrological models that could be useful for future water resources assessments that are likely to include issues of land use change, changes in patterns of abstraction and water use, as well the possibility of change in future climates.

The overall objective of the whole study was to assess whether conservation agriculture (CA) systems can work in the Eastern Cape Province (EC). The CA systems were engaged through cover cropping to address land degradation problems by emphasizing high biomass production in order to realize short term benefits such as moisture conservation, weed suppression and soil fertility benefits under rainfed conditions in the central region of the Eastern Cape province. Since rainfall is the most limiting factor to crop production in the EC, a within season rainfall distribution analysis was conducted to expose the quality of the season (onset, end and duration) and hence the feasibility of CA systems to guide agronomic decisions by farmers in EC. To assess season parameters, thirty four years of daily rainfall was collected from the University of Fort Hare Research station and used to conduct the rainy pentad (5 day rainfall totals) analysis and the daily rainfall analysis using INSTAT software programme. Based on the pentad analysis, results showed that Alice does not have a rainy season in 1 out of 2 years (50% probability) but has one in 1 out of 4 years (25% probability level). This criterion proved to be harsher and conservative when compared to the daily rainfall approach which is more precise in measuring trends on season parameters. The daily rainfall analysis indicated a 65% feasibility for the dry land cropping systems in the EC. The pentad analysis however was effective in illustrating seasonality and it showed that the wet season begins on the 1st of November, ending on the 22nd of March lasting for 140 days. Though the season duration appeared too long, the existence of dry spells during critical growth stages adversely affects the quality of the season. The daily rainfall analysis also managed to derive a signal which can guide planting decisions. For planting to be successful, this analysis determined that 20 mm of rain should be received in two consecutive days after the 1st of November. A screening trial for cover crop biomass production and weed suppression was conducted on-station Fort Hare Research Farm (32°46' S and 26° 50' E), and Msobombvu village (MSBV) (32°44' S, and 26° 55' E) over two seasons (2007/08 and 2008/09). Six summer cover crops i.e. cowpea (Vigna unguiculata), dolichos lablab (Dolichos argenteus), sunnhemp (Crotalaria juncea), buckwheat (Fagopyrum sagittatum), forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sunflower (Helianthus annus) were evaluated for biomass yield, and weed suppression. Decomposition rates, moisture conservation and residual effects of these cover crops on the succeeding main crop were also evaluated under dryland conditions. The screening trial was laid in randomized complete block design replicated three times. Forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sunflower (Helianthus annus) were identified as high biomass producers and their dry matter yields ranged from 8 -12 t ha-1. These cover crops can be useful in generating high biomass in rainfed cropping systems in the EC. Other cover crops produced 3 - 4 t ha-1 of biomass which fell short of the 6 t ha-1 expected benchmark. However, these biomass yields were important in weed management since all cover crop species showed a similar degree of weed suppression which surpassed the weed fallow treatment. As dead mulches, the cover crops failed to show residual moisture conservation and weed control benefits for the succeeding maize crop mainly because of poor residue persistence, and low harvestable fallow rainfall. Buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum), was selected for further investigations in a follow up trial on station in 2008/09 season because of its weed smothering qualities, suitability to short cycle rotations, and possible allelopathic properties. The trial aimed at finding weed and cost effective management options of buckwheat that are none detrimental to the succeeding maize crop. Results showed that cropping systems where buckwheat is followed by a main crop may not work as they are unprofitable with respect to R100 rand invested. Though perceived to have allelopathic properties, buckwheat failed to demonstrate the possibilities of allelopathic action against weeds. Intercropping trial was conducted on-station in 2007/8-2008/09 seasons to try and find better ways of fitting legume cover crops into maize based cropping systems without compromising production of staple cereals on limited landholdings. The trials evaluated three factors in factorial combination, cover crop planting date, intercropping strategy, and cover crop species. The trial was laid as 2 x 2 x 3 factorial arranged in a split-split plot design. The main plot factor was cover crop planting date, cover crops simultaneously planted with maize and cover crop planted two weeks after planting maize (DKC 61-25). The sub-plot factor was intercropping strategy, strip intercropping and betweenrow intercropping. The sub-sub-plot factor was cover crop species, Dolichos lablab (Dolichos argenteus (Highworth), and Cowpea Vigna ungiculata (Agrinawa) plus control plots of sole maize. Results showed that same time planting of leguminous cover crops with maize using the in-between row intercropping patterns can derive appreciable system biomass (maize/cover crop) yields, utilize land efficiently whilst getting favourable maize grain yield. Based on the rainfall analysis, results showed that the probability of success when relay seeding cover crops after two weeks into standing maize is low (15% chances of success). This suggests that relay intercropping strategies would not work due to the unavailability of a good quality season.

Reconstruction studies of seasonal rainfall utilizing stable isotope based proxy approach suffer from the limitations of time resolutions. Conventional methods and archives limit the achievable resolution to annual scales. However, high resolution reconstruction (seasonal to sub-weekly scale) can be achieved in proxy records where growth rates are high enough to leave spatial signatures in an organically or inorganically deposited layer such as growth bands. In this study, aragonitic skeleton of the gastropod Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, Giant African Land Snails) is investigated with an aim to achieve sub-weekly scale reconstruction of the Indian monsoon rainfall. These terrestrial gastropods are native of Africa and highly invasive. Their evolution in the geological time period dates back to the Pliocene and is presently distributed across the tropical belt. They exhibit a high growth rate in the presence of water and high relative humidity in the environment. As a result, they are ideally suited for the task of palaeo seasonality reconstruction. The isotopic patterns recorded in their growth bands reveal composition of environmental water at seasonal time scales. In vitro studies were carried out on L. fulica to estimate their growth rates and growth responses to changes in the physical conditions within the culture chamber. The Indian monsoon rainfall exhibits characteristic dry spells that are generally sandwiched between periods of active phases of high rainfall during the South West monsoon season. These dry spells are typically characterized by rainfall with low intensity. Isotope fingerprinting of the rain water at daily time resolution, covering the years of 2007-10 exhibited distinct isotopic ratios for the dry and wet spells. Dry spells were clearly demarcated in the record with isotopically enriched signature. In addition, the study indentified the role of three distinct moisture sources on δ18O of rain water at Bangalore, India. The variability in the oxygen isotopic composition of the Indian monsoon rainfall is predominantly controlled by this source moisture variability at inter annual time scales, while temperature and amount of rainfall tend to dominate the variability in the precipitation isotopes at seasonal and weekly scales. Simultaneous isotopic analyses of both rainwater and shell carbonates growth bands were undertaken to understand their relationship to aid in high resolution reconstruction. Carbonate found in the growth bands of the gastropods, which is precipitated under equilibrium condition from rainwater, preserves the signature of rainfall. This provides an opportunity to reconstruct rainfall parameters (i.e. amount and moisture sources) knowing the variability in shell carbonates. Stable isotopic ratios measured across the growth bands of live shell specimens collected from the southern and eastern Indian regions (Bangalore and Kolkata, respectively) were compared with the rainfall isotope ratios at these two locations; signature of dry spells were clearly identified from the study of isotopic composition in the growth bands of the gastropod specimens. The approach was also extended to older samples from historical archives from eastern Indian region (Kolkata, East India). Individual specimens belonging to the same species of gastropod, which were collected during the monsoon season of the year 1918 were used for reconstructing the seasonal pattern in monsoon rainfall over the region. The record of variation in the isotopic composition seen in the shell was compared with the rainfall data from Indian Metrological Division observatory at Kolkata station. The year 1918 was characterized as a major drought year and the signature of dry period was seen preserved in the specimen. The work under taken in this thesis will widen the scope of seasonality reconstruction using terrestrial shell fossils from palaeo records, which have been rarely investigated in paleoclimate studies from the perspective of understanding the seasonal precipitation variability.

Reconstruction studies of seasonal rainfall utilizing stable isotope based proxy approach suffer from the limitations of time resolutions. Conventional methods and archives limit the achievable resolution to annual scales. However, high resolution reconstruction (seasonal to sub-weekly scale) can be achieved in proxy records where growth rates are high enough to leave spatial signatures in an organically or inorganically deposited layer such as growth bands. In this study, aragonitic skeleton of the gastropod Lissachatina fulica (Bowdich, Giant African Land Snails) is investigated with an aim to achieve sub-weekly scale reconstruction of the Indian monsoon rainfall. These terrestrial gastropods are native of Africa and highly invasive. Their evolution in the geological time period dates back to the Pliocene and is presently distributed across the tropical belt. They exhibit a high growth rate in the presence of water and high relative humidity in the environment. As a result, they are ideally suited for the task of palaeo seasonality reconstruction. The isotopic patterns recorded in their growth bands reveal composition of environmental water at seasonal time scales. In vitro studies were carried out on L. fulica to estimate their growth rates and growth responses to changes in the physical conditions within the culture chamber. The Indian monsoon rainfall exhibits characteristic dry spells that are generally sandwiched between periods of active phases of high rainfall during the South West monsoon season. These dry spells are typically characterized by rainfall with low intensity. Isotope fingerprinting of the rain water at daily time resolution, covering the years of 2007-10 exhibited distinct isotopic ratios for the dry and wet spells. Dry spells were clearly demarcated in the record with isotopically enriched signature. In addition, the study indentified the role of three distinct moisture sources on δ18O of rain water at Bangalore, India. The variability in the oxygen isotopic composition of the Indian monsoon rainfall is predominantly controlled by this source moisture variability at inter annual time scales, while temperature and amount of rainfall tend to dominate the variability in the precipitation isotopes at seasonal and weekly scales. Simultaneous isotopic analyses of both rainwater and shell carbonates growth bands were undertaken to understand their relationship to aid in high resolution reconstruction. Carbonate found in the growth bands of the gastropods, which is precipitated under equilibrium condition from rainwater, preserves the signature of rainfall. This provides an opportunity to reconstruct rainfall parameters (i.e. amount and moisture sources) knowing the variability in shell carbonates. Stable isotopic ratios measured across the growth bands of live shell specimens collected from the southern and eastern Indian regions (Bangalore and Kolkata, respectively) were compared with the rainfall isotope ratios at these two locations; signature of dry spells were clearly identified from the study of isotopic composition in the growth bands of the gastropod specimens. The approach was also extended to older samples from historical archives from eastern Indian region (Kolkata, East India). Individual specimens belonging to the same species of gastropod, which were collected during the monsoon season of the year 1918 were used for reconstructing the seasonal pattern in monsoon rainfall over the region. The record of variation in the isotopic composition seen in the shell was compared with the rainfall data from Indian Metrological Division observatory at Kolkata station. The year 1918 was characterized as a major drought year and the signature of dry period was seen preserved in the specimen. The work under taken in this thesis will widen the scope of seasonality reconstruction using terrestrial shell fossils from palaeo records, which have been rarely investigated in paleoclimate studies from the perspective of understanding the seasonal precipitation variability.

PhDRDV / Institute for Rural Development / Currently, there is limited understanding, appreciation and dissemination of indigenous raining making practices. Yet indigenous rain making is part of the rich African heritage. The current study was premised on the view that indigenous rain making practices can help combat the negative effects of climate change if properly integrated with western science. A mixture of exploratory and survey designs was adopted in this study, which sought to examine the common indigenous rainmaking practices in Chimanimani District of Zimbabwe prior to developing strategies for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of rural households. Various studies with the following specific objectives were carried out: to analyze the general community perceptions on the potential of indigenous rain making practices in combating the negative effects of climate change; to examine the components of indigenous rainmaking practices; analyse the means of disseminating knowledge on indigenous rainmaking; to identify the negative effects of climate change on the livelihoods of rural households; to assess the effectiveness of existing strategies used by households to cope with the negative effects of climate change; and to propose strategies for utilizing indigenous rainmaking practices to counter the negative effects of climate change on the livelihoods of rural households. Semi-structured interview guides and a questionnaire requiring responses on a Likert-type scale were used to collect data. Key informants and ordinary community members were selected using judgmental, convenient and snowballing sampling techniques. The Thematic Content Analysis technique was used to draw meaning out of the qualitative data. Chi-Square tests for Goodness of Fit were conducted using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) to establish if there were significant relationships among perceptions. It was indicated that the shift in seasons as exemplified by the Nyamavhuvhu wind which now swept Chimanimani in September or October instead of end of July to August was evidence of climate change. Responses with respect to the negative effects of climate change included food insecurity, and drying up of streams and rivers. Availability of water for domestic, agricultural and animal use was becoming increasingly unreliable. The respondents argued that they believed in the effectiveness of indigenous rain making if it is conducted following local customs and traditions. Significant differences in the following perceptions were observed for “Besides makoto and Christian prayers there are other common rainmaking practices practiced in Chimanimani District” (p < 0.05). Similar results were observed with regard to “I believe indigenous and western knowledge of rainmaking can complement each other” (P < 0.001), and “There is increase in pests and plant diseases than before” (P < 0.01). Components of indigenous rain making v identified in the current study included rain making ceremonies (makoto), which entailed use of beer, sacrificial bird (normally a cock) and natural resources conservation such as keeping places for local rain making rituals sacred (zvitenguro), not destroying very big trees for example fig tree (muonde: Ficus capensis), mukute (Syzygium cordatum) and others, and treating forests as sacred. With respect to the negative effects of climate change, a highly significant difference was observed for duration of stay in relation to, “There is now a high risk in planting winter wheat due to changes in climate” (P < 0.01); “Wetlands are disappearing in our area” (P < 0.01); “There is general reduction in yields due to climate change” (P < 0.001) and “We are experiencing scarcity of water for domestic animals and for household use” (P < 0.05). Lastly, highly significant relationships between “Rivers are drying up in our area” and education (P < 0.01) and duration of stay (P < 0.001). Methods used to disseminate indigenous knowledge of rain making were said to be ineffective. Information was being passed on through oral means. It was indicated that better use of modern technology and social media, in particular radio, television, Twitter, WhatsApp and Facebook might enhance people’s knowledge on indigenous rain making. By so doing, the perception that indigenous rain making was merely history and not knowledge that can be used in people’s daily lives would be eliminated. Furthermore, current strategies utilized to combat the negative effects of climate change were reported to be unsustainable. Among these were reliance on harvesting wild fruits for sale and hunting. Human activities such as veld fires, deforestation and over harvesting of wildlife were viewed in negative light with respect to combating negative effects of climate change. It was proposed that communities should revert to respecting traditional beliefs of conserving forests. This said to be key in normalizing climate, attracting back the birds and animals that used to be key in weather forecasting. Replanting and indiscriminate cutting of trees along rivers as effective prevention of stream bank cultivation were proposed. Re-introduction of heavy fines by traditional leadership was suggested as a tried and tested strategy that was no longer being applied when implementing conservation initiatives. The observation made in this study that western science and indigenous rain making practices were similar in many respects, suggested that these were opportunities that could be used to anchor strategies for integrating them. In addition to this, the need for establishing collective deliberation or interface platforms coupled with continuous communication and careful management of intellectual property was obvious.