Orientador: Emanuel Pimentel Barbosa / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Matematica, Estatistica e Computação Cientifica / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-08T06:20:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Barbao_Jaqueline_M.pdf: 5813756 bytes, checksum: 029960ddd670b1a986b10c66dba44508 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: Neste trabalho são estudadas 4 metodologias para análise de ciclos em séries temporais, das quais 3 delas foram mais recentemente desenvolvidas na literatura. A primeira, proposta por Kaiser e Maravall (2001), se baseia numa modificação do filtro Hodrick-Prescott (HP) unidimensional através de uma abordagem por modelos ARIMA. A segunda, desenvolvida em Mills (2003) consiste numa extensão multivariada do filtro HP. A terceira, utiliza modelos de espaço de estado ou estruturais (Durbin e Koopman.2001), uni-variados e multivariados para decompor a série. A quarta, é um método mais tradicional, aqui tomado como referência comparativa e que se baseia em modelos de regressão (não-linear) harmónica. Utilizando 3 séries de índices macroeconômicos da Espanha (índice de produção industrial, consumo de cimento e número de biblhetes vendidos de passagens aéreas), e 2 séries de fenômenos naturais (chuvas em Fortaleza e número médio de manchas solares), esses métodos são implementados e seus resultados discutidos e avaliados comparativamente. Aspectos dessa avaliação incluem a facilidade de implementação, capacidade de descrição e previsão, e qualidade da componente cíclica estimada. / Abstract: The analysis of cycles in time series is considered in this investigation through four methodologies, of which three were more recently developed in literature. The first method, proposed in Kaiser and Maravall (2001), is based on a modification of the unidimensional Hodrick-Prescot filter (HP) through ARIMA models approach. The second method, developed in Mills (2003), consists of a multivaxiate extension of the HP filter, whereas the third method, which follows Durbin and Koopman (2001), decomposes the series through either univariate or multiariate state space models. The fourth method, which is traditional in literature and based on harmonic non-linear regression models, is taken in order to be used as standard reference for comparison. These methods are applied in three Spanish macroeconomic time series (industry production index, cement consumption and airline tickets sales) and two natural phenomena time series (rainfall in Fortaleza/Brazil and sunspot average number). These methodologies are examined with respect the facilities of the implementation, forecasting and description capability, and the quality of the estimated cycle component. / Mestrado / Mestre em Estatística

On most tropical volcanic islands the risk for soil erosion is enhanced due to a complex topography, high intensity rainfall and the exploitation of land for agriculture. Mauritius is a typical maritime tropical volcanic island with a distinct elevated interior. Rainfall is dominated by tropical weather systems and trade winds and the island is under intensive cultivation. Rainfall depth, duration, intensity, kinetic energy and erosivity were analysed for 385 erosive rainfall events at five locations over a five year period (2004 to 2008) on the island of Mauritius. Two stations located on the west coast and three stations sited on the Central Plateau above 550 m a.s.l. are used to provide detailed rainfall data at six minute intervals. Erosive storm events, defined here as a total rainfall exceeding 12.5 mm and a maximum 6-minute intensity exceeding 25 mm/hour, are found to differ markedly between the coastal lowlands and the elevated interior with regards to the frequency, the total rainfall generated, the duration, total kinetic energy and total erosivity of individual events. However, mean kinetic energy, mean and maximum rainfall erosivity (EI30) and maximum intensities (I30) from individual erosive events do not show this distinct differentiation. Erosivity measured during summer exceeds that recorded in winter, but the data indicate that large percentages of winter rainfall on Mauritius are defined as erosive and non-tropical cyclone rainfall can pose a substantial erosion risk. In this maritime tropical environment with its elevated interior, soil erosion risk occurs from storm scale to synoptic scale rainfall events and extreme events generate the bulk of the erosivity. Findings show that using rainfall records at an event scale within soil erosion risk assessments on tropical islands with a complex topography will increase the effectiveness of erosivity estimates

As urban centres rapidly expand, a trend appears to be happening which is threatening the uniqueness of these centres. International homogenization is making the place "a small world after all". To deal with this, cities have established institutions and attractions to celebrate the heritage, culture and characteristics of a place. Tourist attractions are built with the goal of giving visitors the "most real and authentic experience" of the place, distinct from anywhere else in the world. They also play a significant role in educating the local citizens and improving their daily experience of city life, which may be taken for granted. Playing on Vancouver's infamous reputation, this project, the Museum of Rain, will attempt to give visitors an "authentic" experience of what it is like to live in perhaps the rainiest city in North America. The site is on the north shore of False Creek, on the old Expo lands, along the Seawall. The location of the project helps create a continuity of attractions with Science World, Chinatown, Gastown and the sports stadiums, all located in the area. As well, it provides an opportunity for a visual attraction in the urban landscape along the Seawall, thus, strengthening and improving an area that is quite desolate at the moment. The museum is designed to give the visitor a heightened sense and appreciation for this aspect of nature, which may be disliked or taken for granted by many people. There are basically two parts to the building, an information ban on the north side of the building and an experiential zone to the south. The experiential zone is divided according to the senses of sound, sight, smell and touch. It is with the exaggeration and amplification or rain through the senses and the educational information that the visitor's experience will be greatly impressed into their memory and implore a better understanding and appreciation for Rain. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Architecture and Landscape Architecture (SALA), School of / Graduate

The Caribbean is a complex region that heavily relies on its seasonal rainfall cycle for its economic and societal needs. This makes the Caribbean especially susceptible to hydro-meteorological disasters (e.g., droughts and floods), and other weather/climate risks. Therefore, effectively predicting the Caribbean rainfall cycle is valuable for the region. The efficacy of predicting the Caribbean rainfall cycle is largely dependent on effectively characterizing the climate dynamics of the region. However, the dynamical processes and climate drivers that shape the seasonal cycle are not fully understood, as previous observational studies show inconsistent findings as to what mechanisms influence the mean state and variability of the cycle. These inconsistencies can be attributed to the limitations previous studies have when investigating the Caribbean rainfall cycle, such as using monthly or longer resolutions in the data or analysis that often mask the seasonal transitions and regional differences of rainfall, and investigating the Caribbean under a basin-wide lens rather than a sub-regional lens. This inhibits the ability to accurately calculate and predict subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) rainfall characteristics in the region. To address these limitations and inconsistencies, the research in this thesis examines the seasonal climatology, variability, and characteristics of the Caribbean rainfall cycle under a sub-regional and temporally fine lens in order to investigate the prediction of the cycle. Regional variations and dynamical processes of the Caribbean annual rainfall cycle are assessed using (1) a principal component analysis across Caribbean stations using daily observed precipitation data; and, (2) a moisture budget analysis. The results show that the seasonal cycle of rainfall in the Caribbean hinges on three main facilitators of moisture convergence: the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Eastern Pacific ITCZ, and the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). A warm body of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean basin known as the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) and a low-level jet centered at 925hPa over the Caribbean Sea known as the Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) modify the extent of moisture provided by these main facilitators. The interactions of these dynamical processes are responsible for shaping the seasonal components of the annual rainfall cycle: The Winter Dry Season (WDS; mid-November to April); the Early-Rainy Season (ERS; mid-April to mid-June); an intermittent relatively dry period known as the mid-summer drought, (MSD; mid-June to late August), and the Late-Rainy Season (LRS; late August to late November). Five geographical sub-regions are identified in the Caribbean Islands, each with its unique set of dynamical processes, and consequently, its unique pattern of rainfall distribution throughout the rainy season: Northwestern Caribbean, the Western Caribbean, the Central Caribbean, the Central and Southern Lesser Antilles, and Trinidad and Tobago and Guianas. Convergence by sub-monthly transients contributes little to Caribbean rainfall. The wettest and driest Caribbean ERS and LRS years’ are then explored by conducting the following: (1) a spatial composite of rainfall using the daily rainfall data; and, (2) spatial composites of SSTs, sea-level pressure (SLP), and mean flow moisture convergence and transports using monthly data. The ERS and LRS are impacted in distinctly different ways by two different, and largely independent, large-scale phenomena, external to the region: a SLP dipole mode of variability in the North Atlantic known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Dry ERS years are associated with a persistent dipole of cold and warm SSTs over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, respectively, that are caused by a preceding positive NAO state. This setting involves a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback expressed in enhanced trade winds and consequently, moisture transport divergence over all of the Caribbean, except in portions of the Northwestern Caribbean in May. A contribution from the preceding winter cold ENSO event is also discernible during dry ERS years. Dry LRS years are due to the summertime onset of an El Niño event, developing an inter-basin SLP pattern that moves moisture out of the Caribbean, except in portions of the Northwestern Caribbean in November. Both large-scale climate drivers would have the opposite effect during their opposite phases leading to wet years in both seasons. Existing methodologies that calculate S2S rainfall characteristics were not found to be suitable for a region like the Caribbean, given its complex rainfall pattern; therefore, a novel and comprehensive method is devised and utilized to calculate onset, demise, and MSD characteristics in the Caribbean. When applying the method to calculate S2S characteristics in the Caribbean, meteorological onsets and demises, which are calculated via each year’s ERS and LRS mean thresholds, effectively characterize the seasonal evolution of mean onsets and demises in the Caribbean. The year-to-year variability of MSD characteristics, and onsets and demises that are calculated by climatological ERS and LRS mean thresholds resemble the variability of seasonal rainfall totals in the Caribbean and are statistically significantly correlated with the identified dynamical processes that impact each seasonal component of the rainfall cycle. Finally, the seasonal prediction of the Caribbean rainfall cycle is assessed using the identified variables that could provide predictive skill of S2S rainfall characteristics in the region. Canonical correlation analysis is used to predict seasonal rainfall characteristics of station-averaged sub-regional frequency and intensity of the ERS and LRS wet days, and magnitude of the MSD. Predictor fields are based on observations from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and GCM output from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Spearman Correlation and Relative Operating Characteristics are applied to assess the forecast skill. The use of SLP, 850-hPa zonal winds (u850), vertically integrated zonal (UQ), and meridional (VQ) moisture fluxes show comparable, if not better, forecast skill than SSTs, which is the most common predictor field for regional statistical prediction. Generally, the highest ERS predictive skill is found for the frequency of wet days, and the highest LRS predictive skill is found for the intensity of wet days. Rainfall characteristics in the Central and Eastern Caribbean have statistically significant predictive skill. Forecast skill of rainfall characteristics in the Northwestern and Western Caribbean are lower and less consistent. The sub-regional differences and consistently significant skill across lead times up to at least two months can be attributed to persistent SST/SLP anomalies during the ERS that resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, and the summer-time onset of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the LRS. The spatial pattern of anomalies during the MSD bears resemblance to both the ERS and LRS spatial patterns. The findings from this thesis provide a more comprehensive and complete understanding of the climate dynamics, variability, and annual mean state of the Caribbean rainfall cycle. These results have important implications for prediction, decision-making, modeling capabilities, understanding the genesis of hydro-meteorological disasters, investigating rainfall under other modes of variability, and Caribbean impact studies regarding weather risks and future climate.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, 1981. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 98-99. / by Ronald Francis Fournier. / M.S.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology, 1980. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaf 134. / by Geoffrey Shepherd Domm. / M.S.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Meteorology, 1980. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 44-46. / by Till E. Stoeckenius. / M.S.

The processes that regulate nutrient access by forest trees exhibit substantial variability on both large and small spatial scales. Explicit study of this spatial variability promotes a better understanding of the structure and function of forests. While the importance of space in ecological processes is being increasingly appreciated, there are major gaps in our knowledge about how space influences plant nutrient supply, particularly within a forest stand. This dissertation consists of three chapters that examine the patterns, drivers, and implications of spatial variation in three main processes that make nutrients available to trees: throughfall nutrient deposition, soil nutrient mineralization, and root system development. In Chapter 1, I use data from a field experiment to examine the effect of fertilization on nutrient transfer from the canopy to the soil via throughfall and litterfall in a tropical rainforest. I demonstrate that at small spatial scales, canopy density controls the flux of nutrients in throughfall, while at large scales, soil fertility is an important control, especially for phosphorus. I also show throughfall can be as important as litterfall in the recycling of certain essential nutrients like potassium, and depending on soil fertility, phosphorus. In Chapter 2, I investigate the small scale spatial patterning in soil nitrogen, a nutrient that frequently limits tree growth, in a temperate forest. By quantifying the degree of spatial inequality and autocorrelation in two plots characterized by different dominant tree species, I show that soil extractable nitrogen pools and net nitrogen mineralization fluxes exhibit a high degree of spatial patterning at scales less than 5 meters, with a majority of nitrogen availability contained within hotspots comprising a small proportion of soil area. I also demonstrate that this spatial patterning affects seedling access to soil nitrogen, which has consequences for seedling growth and survival. Chapter 3 examines how tree species and tree size affect the spatial distributions of root systems in two temperate tree species and explores how differences in root spatial coverage could affect tree nutrient access. I find that the spatial distributions of tree root systems can exhibit dramatic differences between species, with a tradeoff between root spatial coverage and total root length. I also discover that the effect of root spatial coverage on soil nutrient access is highly dependent on the spatial patterning of the soil nutrient, such that tree access to patchy nutrients varies greatly based on tree location within the local soil environment, even for medium-size trees. Together, these chapters characterize important patterns and mechanisms of spatial variation in the processes that regulate tree nutrient access.

An investigation was made of the flash flood of July 9, 1943, on the Blacksburg watershed with a view toward an approximation of the actual amount of water passing as run-off during the storm, as well as the peak rate of flow. All the available data have been reviewed with the above purpose in mind. The unit graph method has been applied to this investigation as the most logical method of solution. With the data already available plus that gathered by the writer, the unit graph method was readily applied. In this connection, the writer has kept continuous rainfall records at the Mineral Industries Building and continuous water level records at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute dam. After arriving at a solution as to the actual run-off conditions at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute dam following the above storm, further investigation was made of that point of the drainage area above the Blacksburg depot of the Norfolk and Western Railroad. The capacities of both the culvert on Eakia Street and the channel above Eakia Street were determined by calculations, and an opinion based on the review of observed data was offered as to why the culvert did not properly take care of the run-off from the drainage area above it. Using the calculated maximum rate of run-off, a cross section of Strouble’s Creek at the site of the proposed Virginia Polytechnic Institute sewage disposal plant has been analyzed. A solution has been offered as to low high the maximum flood crest of Strouble’s Creek at that point will reach. This information is necessary because the sewage plant must be build above the flood waters. / M.S.

The purpose of this research was to investigate the relationship between watershed land use and seasonal changes on THM-formation potential from the waters of four streams located in northern Virginia. Specific objectives were to observe the effect of impoundment on downstream THM precursor concentrations and to evaluate the molecular-size distributions of THM-precursors in stream waters as to the influence of seasonal changes, storm events, and watershed land use. Raw water samples were collected from October 1989 through May 1990 during baseflow and storm conditions. The samples were fractionated through 500, 1000, 5000, 10000, and 30000 dalton ultrafilters and were then chlorinated to determine the THM-formation potential based on the total organic concentration of the water fraction. From the data collected, it was shown that seasonal changes influenced the TOC and THM-precursor loadings in runoff from the watersheds. Fall runoff from Broad Run contributed the highest mass loading. Impoundment was seen to increase the amount of THM precursors downstream of Lake Manassas on Broad Run with the largest difference observed during the fall event. The more-rural watersheds draining into Broad Run contributed the most TOC and THM precursors during the fall runoff event, while the more-urban watersheds (Bull Run and Holmes Run) contributed more TOC and THM precursors in the winter and spring runoff. / Master of Science