The investor’s expectation is instinctively to be linked to the asset’s return by the finance experts and analysts. However why and how it affects the return are poorly understood and explained. Can the investor’s expectation really move the market? How much the influence does it have? This study looks at this well-known puzzle between real estate returns and investors’ expectations on rental income growth of real estate assets. Based on the theoretical model in this study, the questions whether, why and how the investors’ expected rental income growth has effects on the real estate returns are answered. The study focuses on both private and public real estate (REITs) returns and examines whether they can be explained by the facts in Hong Kong. 　　The theoretical model is derived from the Gordon Growth Model. The novelty of the model is to define the term structure of interest rate on the expected rental income. Empirically, the linkage between the two markets is identified through the REIT’s dividend, which is specified to be distributed from 90% of the real estate asset’s income. Under this specification, strong evidence is found for expected rental income growth predictive power. In this study, the relationship between the monthly end-of-period REIT’s return and monthly expected rental income growth of corresponded real estate asset is tested by panel model, which does the superb job in fitting both cross-sectional and time-varied return patterns of REITs. As the REITs in Hong Kong had just launched since the end of year 2005, the sample period of this study is from November, 2005 to April, 2010. Unlike the standard asset pricing model, this study adds the investor’s expectation as one of the factors which determine the REIT’s return to adjust the out-performance tendency of certain asset. 　　The study also confirms the hypothesis in private real estate market by finding that investors’ expectation on rental growth imposes a positive and significant impact on the real estate return in Hong Kong. The quarterly data series of macro-economic factors, such as Gross Domestic Production, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Employment rate are tested to confirm their effects on the real estate return together with the investor’s expectations on both future rental income and inflation. All four real estate sectors, including residential, office, retail and industrial property sectors, are inclusively tested in this study. 　　 For both private and public real estate markets in Hong Kong, the investor’s expectation has positive effects on the corresponding asset’s return. The evidence in this study shows that the change of investor’s expectation would cause positive change of REIT’s return. It reveals that the investors’ expectation plays a vital role in the movement of both private and public real estate markets. When most investors expect a tendency of increasing earning, the real estate return tends to rise with controlling of other economic factors. 　　Though the conclusion of this study is well-known and frequently used to explain or predict the movement of real estate market, the theory behind it is commonly ignored. This study looks deeper into it by improving Gordon Growth Model to capture the investor’s expected rental income growth without econometric forecasting or questionnaire investigation. The series derived in this study is more reliable with clear logic and theory, and confirmed by the facts in Hong Kong real estate market. The derivation and application of the investor’s expected income growth of certain asset will be helpful to provide insightful implications on future asset pricing, finance prediction and analysis. / published_or_final_version / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / abstract / toc / Business / Master / Master of Philosophy

Statistically speaking, only between 4% and 6% individuals can afford to retire comfortably. When this fact is combined with changes such as a longer life expectancy, disintegration of family life and increasing pressure on public resources to deal with issues such as aids, the increasing need for personal financial planning for retirement becomes clear. Firstly, a framework was set of requirements which need to be met with regard to financial planning for retirement. This includes the need to diversify the portfolio (as a method to manage the acceptable risk level), as well as principles and techniques relating to diversification. The possibility of using the services of a financial planner to aid with the retirement planning, as well as aspects to be considered in this regard were discussed. It was also demonstrated that a variety of aspects should be considered when deciding on an investment, including market expectations, general economic conditions and the investor's own research, all within a long-term framework. The final aspect considered as part of the framework, was tax. Having set the framework for successful financial retirement planning in Chapter two, a number of pitfalls to be avoided were addressed in Chapter three. These included the investor's planned annual cost of living, since this is the single most important factor which will determine standard of living during retirement. The planned age at which the individual wishes to retire specifically also needs to be taken into account, seeing that this determines the amount of time he has to build up his investment. The planned rate of return on the investment has to be realistic, but also has to at least keep up with inflation. The effect of inflation could also for example mean that adequate present planning may fall short in 20 years' time. A final aspect to be considered is the importance of taking unforeseen events, such as a potential medical disability, into account. Having set the framework of factors to be taken into account, specific investment options were addressed in the main categories of equity, bonds, property and cash, as well as a pension find, provident fund and/or retirement annuity. Less traditional options such as collector's items, financial instruments or the option to start one's own business were also addressed in more detail. Finally, a questionnaire was addressed to professional people, as represented by auditors in the Northwest Province, with the view to determine the current level of retirement planning and whether or not their expectations matched the theoretic framework as discussed in the previous chapters. Suggestions were made as per the results of the questionnaire by linking the results of the questionnaire and the theoretical framework. Gaps were also highlighted, for instance that very few people as per the sample plan to fully retire, and this changing understanding of "retirement" is not fully captured by current literature. It also seems that professional persons, as per the questionnaire, have an over optimistic view regarding their retirement and funds needed during retirement. / Thesis (M.Com. (Business and Management Accounting))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

Statistically speaking, only between 4% and 6% individuals can afford to retire comfortably. When this fact is combined with changes such as a longer life expectancy, disintegration of family life and increasing pressure on public resources to deal with issues such as aids, the increasing need for personal financial planning for retirement becomes clear. Firstly, a framework was set of requirements which need to be met with regard to financial planning for retirement. This includes the need to diversify the portfolio (as a method to manage the acceptable risk level), as well as principles and techniques relating to diversification. The possibility of using the services of a financial planner to aid with the retirement planning, as well as aspects to be considered in this regard were discussed. It was also demonstrated that a variety of aspects should be considered when deciding on an investment, including market expectations, general economic conditions and the investor's own research, all within a long-term framework. The final aspect considered as part of the framework, was tax. Having set the framework for successful financial retirement planning in Chapter two, a number of pitfalls to be avoided were addressed in Chapter three. These included the investor's planned annual cost of living, since this is the single most important factor which will determine standard of living during retirement. The planned age at which the individual wishes to retire specifically also needs to be taken into account, seeing that this determines the amount of time he has to build up his investment. The planned rate of return on the investment has to be realistic, but also has to at least keep up with inflation. The effect of inflation could also for example mean that adequate present planning may fall short in 20 years' time. A final aspect to be considered is the importance of taking unforeseen events, such as a potential medical disability, into account. Having set the framework of factors to be taken into account, specific investment options were addressed in the main categories of equity, bonds, property and cash, as well as a pension find, provident fund and/or retirement annuity. Less traditional options such as collector's items, financial instruments or the option to start one's own business were also addressed in more detail. Finally, a questionnaire was addressed to professional people, as represented by auditors in the Northwest Province, with the view to determine the current level of retirement planning and whether or not their expectations matched the theoretic framework as discussed in the previous chapters. Suggestions were made as per the results of the questionnaire by linking the results of the questionnaire and the theoretical framework. Gaps were also highlighted, for instance that very few people as per the sample plan to fully retire, and this changing understanding of "retirement" is not fully captured by current literature. It also seems that professional persons, as per the questionnaire, have an over optimistic view regarding their retirement and funds needed during retirement. / Thesis (M.Com. (Business and Management Accounting))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2007. / Title from first page of PDF file (viewed August 7, 2007). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (M.A.)--Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1994. / Vita. Abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 51-53). Also available via the Internet.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2005. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2004. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.