Study project (MBA) -- University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / University of Stellenbosch Business School / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study considers share tips published in a respected publication, and determines whether an investment strategy based on the recommendations of its journalists could allow investors to exceed the stock market average. Six journalists were selected, and the recommendations that they made over a 30-month period grouped into “buy” and “do not buy” recommendations. The change in price of the recommended shares was measured after periods of one week, one month, three months and six months after the date of publication and after inclusion of dividends paid during those periods, returns were calculated. The returns attained for each share was compared to the return on the JSE-Overall Index during that period, the difference between the two being the excess return of the share. The excess returns of the shares recommended by each journalist were used to calculate portfolio excess returns, on which tests of statistical significance carried out. The portfolio of one journalist showed statistically significant excess returns in all four periods under review. One other achieved a statistically significant excess return over 1 week. No other portfolios achieved significant excess returns over the market. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie werkstuk word die aandeelwenke wat in ‘n gerespekteerde tydskrif gepubliseer is, ondersoek om vas te stel of ‘n beleggingsstrategie wat op die wenke van die joernaliste gebaseer is, die mark gemiddlede opbrengs kan klop. Ses joernaliste is gekies, en hul wenke oor ‘n periode van 30-maande is geklassifiseer in “koop” en “nie koop” wenke. Vir die “koop” wenke is die prys-verandering oor tydperke van een week, een maand, drie maande en ses maande gemeet. Opbrengste met insluiting van dividende is bereken. Die opbrengste is met die JE-algehele indeks se opbrengs vir elk van die periodes vergelyk, en die verskil is as bo-opbrengste gedefinieer. Die bo-opbrengste vir elke aandeel is gebruik om portfolio bo-opbrengste te bereken, weereens vir elk van die periodes. Hierdie bo-opbrengste is vir statistiese betekenisvolheid getoets. Die portfolio van een joernalis het statisties beteksnisvolle bo-opbrengste vir al vier periodes getoon. Die portfolio van een ander joernalis het statisties betekenisvolle bo-opbrengste vir ‘n hou-periode van een week getoon. Geen ander portfolios het bo-opbrengste getoon nie.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: When considering the expected returns from an investment, investors often focus on the appreciation of the share price (capital appreciation) and ignore the contribution of dividends paid, thus overlooking a potentially significant contributor to returns. The objectives of this study are to determine the respective contributions of dividends and capital appreciation to the total returns of South African equities over a 10-year period, beginning 31 July 1996 and ending 31 July 2006, by using the Top 40 index of shares listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange over that period. The study also aims to determine whether dividend policy should be considered as carefully as the share's potential capital appreciation by investors when constructing portfolios. The study determined that dividends paid contributed more than 50% of the total return for 10% of the shares in the sample tested. In total, dividends contributed more than 25% of the total return for 33% of the shares. The study also concludes that a share's dividend policy should be considered carefully, as dividends paid may be a significant contributor to a share's expected return. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Wanneer die verwagte opbrengste van 'n belegging in ag geneem word, Ie beleggers dikwels klem op die waardestyging van die aandeleprys (kapitaalappresiasie) en ignoreer die bydrae van dividende wat betaal word. Hulle sien nie dividende as 'n potensieel belangrike bydraer tot opbrengste raak nie. Die doelwitte van hierdie studie is om die onderskeie bydraes van dividende en kapitaalappresiasie tot die totale opbrengs van Suid-Afrikaase aandele oor 'n tydperk van 10 jaar - vanaf 31 Julie 1996 tot 31 Julie 2006 - te bepaal deur die Top 40 indeks van aandele te gebruik wat in daardie tydperk op die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs genoteer was. Die ondersoek wil ook bepaal of beleggers net so versigting na dividendbeleid as na aandele se potensiele kapitaalappresiasie behoort te kyk wanneer portefeuljes saamgestel word. Die studie het bepaal dat dividende wat betaal is, meer as 50% van die totale opbrengste vir 10% van die aandele in die toetsvoorbeeld uitgemaak het. Dividende het altesaam meer as 25% van die totale opbrengs vir 33% van die aandele uitgemaak. Die studie het ook tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat 'n aandeel se dividendbeleid baie versigtig oorweeg moet word omdat dividende wat betaal word 'n belangrike bydraer tot 'n aandeel se verwagte opbrengs kan wees.

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Master / Master of Economics

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

This thesis provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between the value premium and financial distress. Measures of leverage and default are used as proxies for financial distress. Using both an international data set, 1991 to 2006 and a long time series data set for the United States, 1927 – 2007, the thesis adds knowledge about the role of the value premium in asset pricing theory. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic modelling (GARCH) is used and information gathered on the volatility of the value premium. A vector autoregressive (VAR) framework and Granger Causality tests are utilised in order to offer a deeper examination of the relationship between risk premium and economic activity. The results add further evidence to support the view that the value premium appears to be linked to variables associated with financial distress, although it is noted that this does not necessarily mean that participants in financial markets behave rationally.

The benefits of a good education are numerous; it not only offers knowledge and power to individuals, but also enables them to lead the life they wish to; and to benefit both their own family and country. Education has a positive impact on the development of a country. An educated society can eradicate poverty, illiteracy and unemployment, and help in the improvement of the health care standards, the political structures, and the national productivity. The contribution of education in this development process is evident and easily recognized. Many studies show that investments in education generate benefits for people (private benefits) and society (social benefits), similar to those of the physical capital investments. Due to the important role that education plays in the development of human capital, in order to conduct the process of development in developing countries, to achieve their growth aims, significant attention should be placed on studying human capital investment accumulation through the means of the rate of return on education (RORE). So far, numerous economists and researchers have attempted to estimate the RORE for the purpose of observing the efficiency of educational spending and resource allocation (see Psacharopoulos, 1973, 1980, 1985, 1994, 2002, and 2004), in order to be able to analyse the output of the educational process on the economy. The estimation of the rate of return on education (RORE) can help in describing different phenomena, such as the following: employees of the public sector benefiting greatly from higher earnings as compared to the employees of the private sector working in the same capacity; the observed difference in the attendance between males and females to complete their education; the large demand for 'easy-discipline', 'aversion‘ (sub) specialties and the high rate of dropouts from school by males. The research problem of this thesis is that there has been a lack of information regarding estimating the RORE in high income petroleum-based developing countries, such as Kuwait, as most of the existing research has not accurately differentiated between low and high income developing nations. The aim of this research is to clarify the influencing variables and factors affecting the investment on education and their relationships by identifying these factors. This study endeavours to develop a framework based on the RORE model and to verify it by estimating the rate of return in high-income petroleum based economies in developing countries, and in this context, data is acquired from Kuwait to verify it, as a case study. The results of the employed regression model show positive and economically significant parameters for return on education and a negative return for extra years of experience. The estimated rate of return for females is relatively higher than males. The average estimated rate of return to education is 5.2%; with the estimated return for females being 6.7%; and for males 5.5%. On the other hand, by expanding the model to include the 'level of education‘ terms, the results show the highest return for primary education and lowest for intermediate and diploma education. Results indicate also that the highest rates of return on education for females occur in high school, whereas for males in bachelor-level higher education.

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Graduate School of Business Administration, 2013. / The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is widely used in estimating cost of equity capital. CAPM relies on historical data to estimate beta which is subsequently used to calculate ex-ante returns. Several authors have highlighted anomalies with CAPM and have proposed various models that capture these anomalies. This study investigates the Market Derived Capital Asset Pricing Model (MCPM), an ex-ante model that uses traded option premium prices and implied volatility to determine ex-ante equity risk premium used in estimating cost of equity capital. The implied volatility captures future market risk expectation of a firm. This is of importance to corporate managers who need to establish appropriate hurdle rates when making capital budgeting decisions. Additionally, investors need to determine expected returns based on future risk outlook of an investment. Using data from the South African Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed firms’, a comparison of cost of equity capital estimates was done using CAPM, Fama and French Three-Factor Model and MCPM. The results show MCPM’s yields higher estimates compared to CAPM and Three-Factor Model.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Management Finance and Investments / There is plenty of research examining the relationship between surprise macroeconomic data and financial returns, however, in a South African context, such research is scarce. This paper adds to the event study body of knowledge by studying the effects of South African macroeconomic announcements on South African financial returns and juxtaposing that with the relationship of surprise macroeconomic announcements released in the United States with the same local financial instrument returns. In this study, the review period is 10 years starting the beginning of 2006 and ending at the end of 2015. Two strands of economic news are studied, monetary news and real activity news against an equity futures index as a proxy for the South African Stock market; the R186 government bond as a proxy for the South African bond market and the spot US dollar to South African rand exchange rate. The monetary announcements studied are the interest rate adjustments of the South African and United States Central Banks and the consumer price index. The real activity data studied are the unemployment rate; the retail sales and the gross domestic product releases. Many of the findings in this paper were in line with much of the literature where evidence shows that monetary policy has a significant effect on fixed income and forex rates. Stocks were also to be shown to be sensitive to both types of data. The regression specification used in this study shows that local equities are more sensitive to both types of news, although mainly to South African news. Only monetary surprises are shown to be sensitive to the bond market and surprises from both countries. Evidence is that the rand is only sensitive to the interest rate announcements released in the United States. / MT2017

In Essay 1, I investigate the impact of corporate life cycle dynamics on the observed negative association between asset growth and stock returns in the crosssection. I find that the asset growth effect on average exists across some life cycle stages measured using cohorts. However, controlling for certain variables associated with the theoretical explanations, I find there is no relation between asset growth and returns. I argue this evidence is consistent with an agency-based explanation of the asset growth effect. Furthermore, a decomposition of the drivers of the effect shows that different components of assets (i.e. working capital and financing) drive asset growth effect at different life cycle stages. From a decomposition analyses, results show that in the youngest firms (cohort 1), asset growth effect is mostly driven by both operating liability and stock financing on one side (financing) and noncash current assets, PPE, and growth in other assets (for working capital) while cohort 3’s drivers appear to be stock issuances, together with noncash current assets, which I conclude offer further support for agency issues. In Essay 2, I examine how firms’ life cycle affect insider trading behavior, profits surrounding trades, price informativeness, and financing constraints. I argue that if firms’ policies and characteristics change over time as shown in lifecycle literature, then from firm characteristics that motivate insider-trading behavior, one should observe some differences across varying life cycle stages measured using age cohorts. I find that insiders are net sellers at all life cycle stages of a firm. Furthermore, insiders tend to trade more in younger firms than in older firms even though they have fewer numbers of insiders trading. Trading characteristics are generally statistically significant across cohorts. Overall, insiders appear to predict the correct direction for positive wealth generation when trading. Specifically, at all lifecycle stages, they appear to sell before negative CARs, and buy during periods associated with negative CARs that lead to positive CARs days after insider transactions. The findings on price informativeness suggest that in general insider purchases enhance price informativeness for firms at different lifecycle stages, however, this finding holds only for cohort 4 (oldest firms) in the case of insider sales. The implication of this finding is that regulation should be more lax towards purchases as compared to sales for firms, except for sales in firms that are older. Lastly, insider trades are linked with positive investment-cash flow sensitivities for both insider purchases and insider sales, which generally increase monotonically across cohorts. This finding is robust to using GMM approach. / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

by Cheung Chan-Wah. / Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 80-86). / ABSTRACT --- p.ii / TABLF OF CONTENTS --- p.iii / LIST OF TABLES --- p.iv / ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.v / Chapter / Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION l --- p.1 / Chapter II. --- REVIEW OF LITERATURE --- p.7 / Chapter III. --- METHODOLOGY。 --- p.16 / Summary Statistics --- p.16 / Correlation --- p.21 / GARCH Estimation --- p.22 / Chapter IV. --- NATIONAL MARKET INDEX AND DATA --- p.31 / National Stock Indices and Trading Mechanisms --- p.31 / Stock Return Data and Data Transformation --- p.34 / Chapter V. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.37 / Summary Statistics --- p.37 / Cross-Correlation --- p.45 / GARCH Estimation --- p.51 / Chapter VI. --- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION --- p.75 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.80