A research report submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Masters of Management Finance and Investments / There is plenty of research examining the relationship between surprise macroeconomic data and financial returns, however, in a South African context, such research is scarce. This paper adds to the event study body of knowledge by studying the effects of South African macroeconomic announcements on South African financial returns and juxtaposing that with the relationship of surprise macroeconomic announcements released in the United States with the same local financial instrument returns. In this study, the review period is 10 years starting the beginning of 2006 and ending at the end of 2015. Two strands of economic news are studied, monetary news and real activity news against an equity futures index as a proxy for the South African Stock market; the R186 government bond as a proxy for the South African bond market and the spot US dollar to South African rand exchange rate. The monetary announcements studied are the interest rate adjustments of the South African and United States Central Banks and the consumer price index. The real activity data studied are the unemployment rate; the retail sales and the gross domestic product releases. Many of the findings in this paper were in line with much of the literature where evidence shows that monetary policy has a significant effect on fixed income and forex rates. Stocks were also to be shown to be sensitive to both types of data. The regression specification used in this study shows that local equities are more sensitive to both types of news, although mainly to South African news. Only monetary surprises are shown to be sensitive to the bond market and surprises from both countries. Evidence is that the rand is only sensitive to the interest rate announcements released in the United States. / MT2017

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Modeling and forecasting volatility is one of the crucial functions in various fields of financial engineering, especially in the quantitative risk management departments of banks and insurance companies. Forecasting volatility is a task of any analyst in the space of portfolio management, risk management and option pricing. In this study we examined different GARCH models in Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) using univariate GARCH models (GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1), GARCH-M (1, 1) GJR-GARCH (1, 1) and PGARCH (1, 1)). Daily log-returns were used on JSE ALSH, Resource 20, Industrial 25 and Top 40 indices over a period of 12 years. Both symmetric and asymmetric models were examined. The results showed that GARCH (1, 1) model dominate other models both in-sample and out-of-sample in modeling the volatility clustering and leptokurtosis in financial data of JSE sectoral indices. The results showed that the JSE All Share Index and all other indices studied here can be best modeled by GARCH (1, 1) and out-of-sample for JSE All Share index proved to be best for GARCH (1, 1). In forecasting out-of-sample EGARCH (1, 1) proved to outperformed other forecasting models based on different procedures for JSE All Share index and Top 40 but for Resource 20 RJR-GARCH (1, 1) is the best model and Industrial 25 data suggest PGARCH (1, 1) / DM2016

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Private Equity is rapidly growing as an alternative asset class for investors in South Africa. Local and international literature presents overwhelming evidence to suggest that Private Equity offers superior risk-adjusted returns and portfolio diversification benefits. Private Equity managers charge quite substantial fees and investors might be concerned about the sustainability of the returns achieved by these firms. This research report addresses the question of how exactly Private Equity managers are able to achieve their superior returns. Although literature is limited and differing in opinion, several methods were identified as being used by managers to increase returns. A sample of 46 individual investments made by two Private Equity firms representing large buy-outs in South Africa was selected and analysed to quantitatively investigate the relationship between some of the identified sources of return and the Internal Rate of Return achieved on each investment. Surprisingly the relationships were not found to be as strong as expected and in many cases were not supportive of the findings in the literature. Only earnings growth and an increase in the earnings multiple had a significant impact on the IRR achieved according to the sample analysed. The author concludes that investing in Private Equity is too interdisciplinary to distil the sources of return into a few concise elements. Proprietary knowledge, expertise, superior management skills, relationships and experience all seem to play a role in providing Private Equity managers with a competitive edge over their public market counterparts. The sources identified in this report are very relevant. However, to empirically prove the individual relationship between each of those sources and the superior returns achieved by Private Equity managers remains a challenge, as their success is vested in their ability to artfully combine these methods in perpetually different combinations according to the merits of each situation. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Private Ekwiteit is besig om vinnig te groei as alternatiewe bateklas vir beleggers in Suid-Afrika. Plaaslike en internasionale literatuur bied oorweldigende bewyse wat dui daarop dat Private Ekwiteit bogemiddelde risiko-aangepaste opbrengste sowel as portefeuljediversifikasie-voordele inhou. Private Ekwiteitbestuurders hef redelike hoë fooie en beleggers mag dalk bekommerd wees oor die vermoë van hierdie maatskappye om hul bogemiddelde opbrengste vol te hou. Hierdie navorsingsverslag adresseer die vraag oor hoe presies Private Ekwiteit- bestuurders dit regkry om bogemiddelde opbrengste te realiseer. Alhoewel die beskikbare literatuur beperk is en opinies daarin vervat verskil, is daar verskeie metodes geïdentifiseer wat bestuurders gebruik om opbrengste te verhoog. `n Steekproef is gekies wat bestaan uit 46 individuele beleggings verteenwoordigend van groot uitkoop-transaksies in Suid Afrika. `n Analise is gedoen om die verhouding tussen geïdentifiseerde bronne van opbrengs en die gerealiseerde Interne Opbrengskoers op `n kwantitatiewe wyse te ondersoek. Die bevindinge was verrassend in die sin dat die verhoudings nie so sterk was soos wat verwag was nie en in baie gevalle was dit glad nie ondersteunend van die bevindinge in die literatuur nie. Slegs verdienstegroei en toename in waardasie-veelvoude het `n beduidende impak gehad op die Interne Opbrengskoers wat behaal is volgens die steekproef wat ontleed is. Die skrywer kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat 'n belegging in Private Ekwiteit te interdissiplinêr is om die bronne van opbrengs te distilleer tot `n paar spesifieke elemente. Inligting, spesialiteits-kennis, fantastiese bestuursvaardighede, persoonlike verhoudings en ervaring is alles elemente wat aan Private Ekwiteit-bestuurders `n mededingende voordeel bied. Die bronne van opbrengs wat in hierdie navorsingsverslag hanteer word, is baie relevant. Dit bly egter `n uitdaging om empiries die individuele verhoudings tussen hierdie bronne en die bogemiddelde opbrengste wat behaal word te bewys, aangesien Private Ekwiteit-bestuurders se sukses juis lê in hul vermoë om kunstig hierdie verskeie metodes te kombineer in ewig veranderende kombinasies na aanleiding van die meriete van elke geval.