published_or_final_version / abstract / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Bibliographic Record JÍLEK, Jiří. European Real Estate Investment Trusts: Analyzing Correlation with a DCC- GARCH Model. Prague, 2012. 50 p. Master thesis (Mgr.) Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies. Supervisor: Tomáš Jandík MA MSc MRICS. Abstract The main goal of this thesis is to study the interdependencies between returns of European real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other investment asset classes such as European equities, government bonds and commodities. The thesis is divided into two parts: in the first part, we describe the necessary background that led to the emergence of first REIT structures and also provide an overview of the European REITs market. In the second part, we apply the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model to examine correlations between the above mentioned asset classes. The general understanding of real estate is that it provides diversification benefits to a diversified portfolio. However, our results suggest that returns of European REITs and stocks show a relatively high correlation and more importantly, the correlation increases in time. These findings have significant implications for investors and portfolio managers who seek protection for their portfolios in time of market downturns. Our results...

Thesis submitted in the fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of the Master of Management in Finance and Investment, 2015/2016 / South African inner-city , through a series of political cycles, social transformations and shifts in local government structures, have undergone significant physical change in a deteriorating direction. This change has largely manifested in the dilapidation of inner-city real estate stock, in that brownfield buildings, or buildings with former residential, commercial and industrial functions, have been re-appropriated for alternative (often illegal) uses that have potential consequences for that redevelopment and, through the sourcing of necessary capital, maybe restored and rehabilitees to better serve inner-city inhabitants and stake holds. / GR2018

A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance. 28th September 2015 / National real estate markets are globally recognized as essential segments of an economy and major contributors to national aggregate outputs. However, Africa’s national real estate markets are largely underdeveloped mainly because capital is in short supply. In this study, we examine the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investments (FPI) and remittances on Africa’s real estate markets. We also sought to establish the financial market channels of capital inflows that are especially important for the real estate markets. In 1980s and 1990s, the widespread influence of the Bretton Woods institutions’ policy prescriptions saw many African countries implement far-reaching financial liberalization reforms. These reforms were meant to address low domestic savings and investments by opening the capital accounts of nations as to enable inflow of foreign capital. In this study, we test the externalities of these inflows. Specifically, we examine the effects of foreign capital inflows on African real estate markets by estimating a structural investment model using a pooled feasible generalized least square and general method of moment estimators in a panel set-up. We use data from Botswana, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa for this test. Second, we examine causality relationships between real estate investments and foreign capital inflows using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and the Bai-Perron threshold test. Third, using the optimal general method of moment estimators and interactive term approach, we model the most important channel for foreign capital inflows’ externalities on the real estate markets. The panel results show that FDI and remittance do not have favourable associations with residential and non-residential real estate investments during their initial period of inflow, but in later periods, they correlate positively and significantly with real estate investments. The relation between FPI and the real estate investments is inconclusive. The VAR test suggests that the effects of foreign capital inflows on both residential and non-residential real estate investments vary across countries and markets. In some cases, the effects are time-varying and size-dependent, but in the majority of the cases, the effects are contingent on the size of the inflows. In respect of the most important channel(s) reflective of effects of cross-border flows on real estate markets, the results appear largely country-dependent: the credit market channel appears to stand out in reflecting most favourable externalities from cross-border flows. Further, evidence on the direct channel effect also varied from country to country. The indirect channel of the equity market is only important in South Africa, especially, when remittances are funnelled via the equity market channel. Based on the forgoing, it appears clear that in order to fast-track growth in national real estate markets, we should recommend that African countries put policies in place to motivate direct foreign capital inflows, encourage channelling of foreign capital inflows, particularly remittances and FDIs through the financial markets, with emphasis on credit markets. / MT2016

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Building), University of the Witwatersrand, 2016 / South Africa implemented the REIT structure in 2013 with the intention of encouraging local and international investment. A year after implementation South African listed property was reported to have performed better than the UK, European, and Asian REITs. This report assesses the initial performance of South African REITs and their portfolio diversification benefits when paired with Shares, Bonds, T-Bills, and other Listed Property in a mixed-asset portfolio, over the period May 2013 to December 2015. The findings show that REITs are the second best performing asset, risk-adjusted. REITs are a return-enhancer when included in a mixed-asset portfolio, and tend to contribute at the higher end of the risk spectrum. This reports contributes to the few that exist on emerging markets, it is a study of the only major REIT market in Africa, and is significant as it discusses South African REITs from their implementation. / MT2017

Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Management in Finance and Investments In the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management University of the Witwatersrand, Wits Business School, 2016 / This paper presents a first time application of a variant of the concepts underpinning the Fed Model, amalgamated with the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Differential, by applying it to the dividend yields of REIT indices. This modification is termed the yield gap, quantitatively constructed and adapted in this paper as the Reverse REIT-Bond Yield Gap. This metric is then used as the variable of interest in a multivariate Markov regime switching model framework, along with a set of three regressors. The REIT indices trailing dividend yield and associated metrics are the FTSE/EPRA NAREIT series. All data are from Bloomberg Terminals. This paper examines 11 markets, of which the EMEs are classified as Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa, whereas the advanced market counterparts are Australia, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The time-frame spans the period June 2013 until November 2015 for the EMEs, whilst their advanced market counterparts time-span covers the period November 2009 until November 2015. This paper encompasses a tri-fold research objective, and aims to accomplish them in a scientifically-based, objective and coherent fashion. Specifically, the purpose is in an attempt to gauge the reasons underlying EMEs observed anomalies entailing reverse REIT-Bond yield gaps, whereby their tenyear nominal government bonds out-yield their trailing dividend yields on their associated REIT indices; what drives fluctuations in this metric; and whether or not profitable tactical asset allocation strategies can be formulated to exploit any arbitrage mispricing opportunities. The Markov models were unable to generate clear-cut, definitive reasons regarding why EMEs experience this anomaly. Objectives two and three were achieved, except for France and Mexico. The third objective was also met. The REIT-Bond Yield Gaps static conditions have high probabilities of continuing in the same direction and magnitude into the future. In retrospection, the results suggest that by positioning an investment strategy, taking cognisance of the chain of economic events that are likely to occur following static REIT-Bond Yield Gaps, then investors, portfolio rebalancing and risk management techniques, hedging, targeted, tactical and strategic asset allocation strategies could be formulated to exploit any potential arbitrage profits. The REIT-Bond Yield Gaps are considered highly contentious, yet encompasses the potential for significant reward. The Fed Model insinuates that EME REIT markets are overvalued relative to their respective government bonds, whereas their advanced market counterparts exhibit the opposite phenomenon. / XL2018

Thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of M.Sc. Building (Property Development and Marketing) to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Construction Economics and Management at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2017 / Background The perception of inconsistent and uncertain valuations has been the subject of debate worldwide. However, it is a phenomenon that has gone largely ignored in South Africa. The effect of unreliable valuations cannot be overstated, as all lending and investment decisions are based on valuation estimates. Objectives This study seeks to investigate the level of valuation accuracy in South Africa by comparing mortgage valuation estimates done prior to finance of the properties against their actual realised transaction prices. Methods and Results Valuers from four financial institutions as well as from external valuation firms were randomly chosen to participate in a questionnaire and in addition 32,826 properties which were valued and sold between January to December 2016 were also analysed. The valuation estimates and actual transaction prices were collected in an Excel file. While data from the banks and valuers was collected and analysed using Qualtrics. Data was analysed using R software version 3.3.3 to come up with descriptive and inference statistics. The result of the analysis showed that the level of valuation accuracy for the properties in South Africa used in the study is high (2.03%), which shows a very high level of accuracy compared to the adopted benchmark of 10%. The accuracy level across the three provinces in our study namely Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape is 2.23%, 1.93% and 1.58% respectively, indicating that valuation accuracy is higher in Western Cape than Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal Conclusion The study revealed that valuation estimates were good proxies of the market value (actual realised sale prices). Based on the 10% acceptable margin of error benchmark adopted by this study it shows that valuers in South Africa are indeed accurate in as far as estimating residential cost values. Based on the 2.03% level of accuracy obtained in this study, we recommend that valuation stakeholders adopt 5% maximum margin of error between valuation estimates and actual realised prices. / XL2018

Thesis (M.M. (Finance & Investment)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School, 2016 / Purpose - The paper provides an investigation of the relationship of macroeconomic risk factors and REITs. The study considers the conditional volatilities of macroeconomic variables on the excess returns and conditional variance of excess returns in developing and developed markets and provides a comparison thereof. Methodology approach - The study employs three-step approach estimation in the methodology (Principal Component Analysis, GARCH (1,1) and GMM) to estimate the asset pricing model. The preliminary study indicated that there are only two developing economies (Bulgaria and South Africa), as defined by National Association of Real Estate Investment Trust (NAREIT), with REIT indices. We additionally included the United States as the developed economy. Findings – Our results indicate that the real economy and business cycles (proxied by GDP growth rate and industrial production index), price stability (proxied by the GDP deflator), exchange rates and interest rates do not explain developing country REIT returns represented by Bulgaria and South Africa, as well as in developed markets, represented by the US. However unlike the developing markets, changes in industrial production and inflation are important variables that affect the conditional variance of REIT returns in the US. / GR2018

Atualmente no Brasil, é possível observar um movimento no mercado dos FIIs (Fundos de Investimento Imobiliário). Este movimento inclui desde alterações recentes na regulamentação, nos prospectos e regulamentos como alterações nos novos tipos que têm sido ofertados no mercado. Além disso, este mercado está em uma fase de grande expansão, no cenário nacional. O ambiente econômico nacional e internacional têm propiciado uma busca por alternativas de investimento, e o FII possui características muito relevantes. Em um mercado cada vez mais pulverizado e mais negociado em bolsa de valores, os critérios de Governança Corporativa se tornam peça fundamental para qualquer tipo de investimento, com seus diversos aspectos, representa transparência, equidade no tratamento e prestação de contas. Itens fundamentais requeridos pelo investidor atual, que busca diversificar seu risco em veículos de investimento transparentes e com retorno considerável. Diante do momento econômico do mercado, da movimentação dos FIIs e da relevância dos critérios de Governança Corporativa, surge o presente estudo. Analisando as alterações no ambiente de investimento FII, com base em seus prospectos, regulamentos e na própria regulamentação, é possível identificar como seus critérios de Governança Corporativa estão atualmente. Comparando os critérios presentes nos FIIs com os critérios presentes em outros ambientes de investimento nacionais é possível identificar o seu posicionamento no mercado. A partir das evidências coletadas nos itens anteriores o estudo buscou validá-las através da realização de entrevistas com gestores. O presente trabalho conclui como as alterações dos critérios de Governança Corporativa influenciam o posicionamento dos FIIs no mercado, quais alterações ainda podem ser feitas para aumentar sua flexibilidade e discute os reflexos de alterações de Governança Corporativa em ambientes de investimento. / Presently in Brazil, it is possible to observe a movement in the markets for real estate investment funds. This movement includes since recent changes in legislation, in prospects and regulations as well as changes in the new types that have been offered on the market. Furthermore, this market is undergoing a major nationwide expansion. The international and national economic environment has encouraged a pursuit for alternative investments, and the real estate investment funds offer very relevant features. In a increasingly segmented market and mostly traded on the stock market, the criteria for corporate governance become key elements for any type of investment, with their several aspects, represents transparency, fairness in treatment and accountability. Fundamental items required by todays investors, which seeks diversify their risk through transparent in investment vehicles and obtain substantial profit. Given the economic moment of the market, of real estate investment funds movement and the relevance of the criteria for corporate governance, surfaces the present study. Analyzing the changes in investment environment of real estate investment funds, based on their prospects, legislation and own regulations, it is possible to identify how their corporate governance criteria are currently. Comparing the present criteria in investment funds with other criteria present in national investment environments it is possible to identify their new positioning in the market. From the evidence collected in the previous items this study sought to validate them by conducting interviews with managers. This present study concludes how the changes to the criteria of corporate governance have influence the placement of real estate investment funds in the market, which changes can be done to improve their flexibility and discuss changes corporate governance reflection on investment environment.

As the relative capital value of major real estate investment grows, and investment risk continues to centralise, the requirement to diversify this risk through shared ownership has increased. This international trend toward increased co-ownership has been manifested in cross border collaborations and, with this sharing of risks has come the dilemma of preserving the operational integrity of these assets and the capital value of the fractional interests created. This thesis considers the process of valuation of fractional interests, examining the methods employed in both the real estate and securities investment communities, and it identifies the shortcomings of the current unstructured approach to the problem. It reveals the impact of improperly structured agreements between co-owners on the value of their interests and illustrates the enormity of this in terms of the Australian publicly traded real estate securities sector. This thesis concludes that the current deficiencies in fractional interest valuation methodologies can be effectively addressed through the adoption, by professional real estate valuers, of a common approach to the investigation of the factors influencing the value of fractional interests and the terms of agreements which underlie these interests / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)