The trend in house prices is of importance to governments, financial institutions and households. However, currently no proven reliable indicator of house prices exists. The lack of an accurate house price series is due to two major factors. First convenient and accurate data on house prices are not readily available and data collection from the Land Registry Office is both time consuming and costly. The second factor relates to the problem of changes in the quality of the series through time. This quality problem has two basic aspects. First, the quality of the index may be influenced by shifts in the distribution of sales between different values of homes. The second problem arises from the unique nature of real estate as to its’ location, age, condition, etc. Unlike other indices, there is no standardized unit of housing to which price quotations may, be reduced, thus the quality of the housing sold in each year will be different. In this study, the problems encountered in sampling and constructing a price index for the single family housing stock are identified and analyzed both conceptually and empirically. The conceptual examination involves a review of the literature as well as an analysis of the methodologies employed in the construction of the major housing indicies in use today. The empirical analysis is done through the construction of a price series for the eight rapidly growing cities and municipalities of the Greater Vancouver Regional District for the years 1949 to 1976. The indicies are based upon data obtained from the Land Registry Offices in British Columbia and are designed to be statistically representative of all sales for those areas during the study period. The analysis forms a basis for future research into housing indicies and in particular, provides a reliable benchmark series against which alternative measures of price changes can be tested. / Business, Sauder School of / Graduate

The objective of this thesis is to gain a better understanding of the process by which residential land prices are determined and change over time. A special concern is also shown for the causal relationship between the prices of building lots and the selling prices of new single-detached housing built on those lots. In the introductory chapter, the upward climb over the years in the average price of building lots relative to the increase in new house prices is identified as a matter in need of closer study. The significance of this subject for planning practice is seen to lie in the power of planning authorities to intervene in the operation of property markets, and in the role of planning authorities implied in many proposals for solving the land price problem. In Chapter Two, numerous theoretical analyses and empirical studies of the determination and inter-temporal variation in residential land prices are surveyed. A critical assessment of the literature made in the first part of Chapter Three identifies several shortcomings. A static rather than dynamic approach, the assumption of market equilibrium and perfect competition, inadequate treatment of supply-demand interaction, and a limited behavioral content, characterize most of the works surveyed. A theoretical model is subsequently developed to explain the process by which residential lot prices are determined and change over time. Its fundamental hypothesis is that the level of new house prices and their changes over time are a prime determinant of lot prices and their intertemporal variation, while the profit-maximizing behavior of lot sellers and housebuilders generates the process by which lot prices increase over time. In Chapter Four, an empirical investigation is proposed for testing the theoretical model. Data on residential construction in Canada over the 1951-1977 period and financed under the provisions of the National Housing Act are selected for the investigation. Since the data pertain to a portion rather than the whole of the lot market, the theoretical model is reformulated in light of this and other empirical conditions. The Chapter is concluded with an outline of the statistical procedures to be used in the investigation. The results of the study are presented in Chapter Five. They are found to be generally consistent with the hypotheses of the empirical model, and the postulates of the theoretical model. It is concluded, among other things , that lot sellers and housebuilders behave in the manner proposed by the models, and that lot price increases are determined by house price increases. However, the validity of the model and wider application of the empirical findings are judged to be limited by the characteristics of the data used in the study. The concluding chapter offers several suggestions for future research on land prices and some implications for planning and public policy. The need for an improved economic understanding in urban planning is identified. A potential role is identified for planners in the provision of information in a market where imperfect information is a major source of observed market failure. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of / Graduate

published_or_final_version / Business Administration / Master / Master of Business Administration

published_or_final_version / abstract / Real Estate and Construction / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Not available / text

Research on house prices and housing markets has traditionally been concerned with the modelling of house price determinants using hedonic regression equations and other methods of data interpretation. While this research has unveiled some useful insights into the relationships between housing supply, housing demand, and selling price, more recent work has focused on the "specialness" of housing as a commodity and the subsequent dismissal of regression techniques that only serve to throw us into a "statistical soup". Recent research is different in two key respects. First, forces other than macro-level variables (eg. interest rates and the availability of finance) and micro-level variables (household income, size, proximity to work) are believed to contribute to the fluctuations in housing prices over time and through space: specifically, more subjective evaluations of locational amenity, identity construction, and community are now considered in the valorisation of housing. Furthermore, newer research also understands that exogenous influences (eg. immigration, foreign investment) now play a key role in the determination of residential value. This research on residential real estate markets in Canada engages in discussions revolving around the latter of the two approaches using both qualitative and quantitative methods. At the inter-urban scale, analysis of house price movements in Canada's largest cities shows the divergence of Toronto and Vancouver from other CMAs, a trend that coincides with the increasing globalisation of both cities over the last 15 years. Further, intra-urban analyses of both Toronto and Vancouver demonstrate differential impacts of globalisation and economic restructuring within each city with particular neighbourhoods being placed on more of a "global" real estate market (eg. gentrified neighbourhoods, residential areas experiencing offshore investment, and areas of settlement for wealthy immigrants). The particular impacts of globalisation are, however, very different in each city and is dependant upon the nature of the global flows that converge there. Moreover, these results are not politically mute; considerable effort has been expended in Vancouver at least to obscure the actual effects of internationalisation on the regional housing market.

Research on house prices and housing markets has traditionally been concerned with the modelling of house price determinants using hedonic regression equations and other methods of data interpretation. While this research has unveiled some useful insights into the relationships between housing supply, housing demand, and selling price, more recent work has focused on the "specialness" of housing as a commodity and the subsequent dismissal of regression techniques that only serve to throw us into a "statistical soup". Recent research is different in two key respects. First, forces other than macro-level variables (eg. interest rates and the availability of finance) and micro-level variables (household income, size, proximity to work) are believed to contribute to the fluctuations in housing prices over time and through space: specifically, more subjective evaluations of locational amenity, identity construction, and community are now considered in the valorisation of housing. Furthermore, newer research also understands that exogenous influences (eg. immigration, foreign investment) now play a key role in the determination of residential value. This research on residential real estate markets in Canada engages in discussions revolving around the latter of the two approaches using both qualitative and quantitative methods. At the inter-urban scale, analysis of house price movements in Canada's largest cities shows the divergence of Toronto and Vancouver from other CMAs, a trend that coincides with the increasing globalisation of both cities over the last 15 years. Further, intra-urban analyses of both Toronto and Vancouver demonstrate differential impacts of globalisation and economic restructuring within each city with particular neighbourhoods being placed on more of a "global" real estate market (eg. gentrified neighbourhoods, residential areas experiencing offshore investment, and areas of settlement for wealthy immigrants). The particular impacts of globalisation are, however, very different in each city and is dependant upon the nature of the global flows that converge there. Moreover, these results are not politically mute; considerable effort has been expended in Vancouver at least to obscure the actual effects of internationalisation on the regional housing market. / Arts, Faculty of / Geography, Department of / Graduate

The "unusual" behavior of agricultural land prices is the subject of considerable debate and controversy and is the object of this research. There is little doubt that land prices have been increasing steadily since 1959 and dramatically throughout the decade of the 1970's. However, there is widespread disagreement among economists, appraisers, and other interested parties as to the causes of the dramatic increases in land prices. Net agricultural income is undoubtedly an important factor in the agricultural land market. Yet, land prices have continued to increase in the face of steady and even declining net incomes. Other factors often considered as exerting considerable influences are inflation, pressures from an increasing population, incentives to attain economies of size through ranch enlargement, and capitalization of government farm program "payments" into land values. The objective of this research is to identify the factors that exert significant influence on agricultural grazing land sale prices in two Eastern Oregon counties and to assess the impact of changes in these factors on the selling price of grazing land. A single equation linear regression model is used to identify the factors that have a significant impact on the price of grazing land. The variables determined to be positively correlated to the price of grazing land are the productivity of the land, the price of feeder cattle, inflation, and the assessed value of real property included in the land sales. The price of hay is negatively correlated with the price of grazing land. The inclusion of public land (USFS and BLM) grazing privileges in the sale was found to have no significant effect on the price of grazing land. In addition, purchases for the purpose of ranch enlargement are occurring at lower prices than purchases for ranch establishment. The major limitations of this study are the restrictions placed on the sales that are analyzed and the problem of standardizing a measure of land productivity. The first limitation is defensible given the stated objectives of the study and the need to limit the analysis to a roughly homogeneous class of land sales. The latter limitation prohibits generalization of the results to other areas without appropriate standardization of the measure of land productivity. / Graduation date: 1979

Presale of residential units refers to putting the units on sale before they are completed. The value of presale to the developer comes from the flexibility of timing the presale launch so as to optimize the expected payoff. We model the developer's optimal launch timing as a real option, and the purchaser's series of presale payments with the flexibility to default as compound options. By assuming a stochastic property price process, we derive model frameworks that a risk-averse developer should adopt in launching the presale under single and multiple payment schemes. The frameworks solve the optimal conditions, contract structures, and prices for the launch. We then extend the model to optimize developers' payoffs in monopolistic and imperfect market equilibria. Finally, by assuming a jump-diffusion demand shock process and based on game theoretic approach, we derive sub-game Nash equilibrium optimal strategies that determine when and at what price developers should launch for presale with stochastic or deterministic rare market events. All the models thus derived are subject to probabilities of purchaser defaults, which will happen if the contract prices are too high when compared to market prices. Our model frameworks confirm that the launch option values increase with increases in price growth rates and variances, but decrease in risk-free rates. Furthermore, developers tend to delay the launch when good events are anticipated, while launching presale earlier at lower prices in times of expected bad events. The equilibrium strategies also provide an alternative explanation to oversupply in property markets. We further illustrate effects of rare events on presale launching strategies through government intervention (particularly public housing and housing subsidies) and output flow uncertainty in competitive equilibrium. Our general optimal strategic models are robust in a few aspects. First, we include the time factor that is crucial for some real options. Second, only slight adjustments are required to cope with market changes, or jumps. Finally, the strategies thus derived can be extensively and flexibly applied to other real options which incur multi-stage contingent payoffs, and whose price processes are characterized by stochastic jump-diffusion process. / Lai Neng. / "October 2000." / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 62-01, Section: A, page: 0270. / Supervisor: Ko Wang. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 184-192). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / School code: 1307.

Concern over the apparent disparity between the farm use value and current market value of property in agricultural areas continues to remain a source of concern in many areas. This concern has intensified in recent years, particularly in those agricultural areas situated near urban centers and recreational areas. The main thrust of the study was directed toward determining the relationship between net real estate income per acre and sale price pier acres of properties in selected agricultural areas of Oregon. Three areas, ostensibly called agricultural areas, were selected for analysis. The areas, as classified, included a basic agricultural production area (dry land grain area in northcentral Oregon), an urban-recreation influenced area (Douglas County in southwestern Oregon bordered by the Pacific Ocean on the west and the Umpqua National Forest on the east) and an urban influenced area (Marion County in the populous and productive Willamette Valley in northwestern Oregon). In addition to determining the influence of net real estate income on property prices, the influence of other property characteristics on property prices was analyzed in each area. The other property characteristics included: year of sale, number of acres in sale, assessed value of buildings per acre, miles to nearest paved road, and miles to nearest town of at least 1,000 population. Simple and multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the influence of particular property characteristics on sale price per acre. The same six-variable model was used in each area to test whether partial regression coefficient values on corresponding variables differed significantly among areas. Overlapping of 95 percent confidence intervals around corresponding partial regression coefficient values among areas was observed for all independent variables except net real estate income per acre. The income variable was an important determinant of sale price per acre only for grain area and Douglas County sales. However, the partial regression coefficient value of 49.71 in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County implies an approximate 2.0 percent capitalization rate compared to a coefficient value of 17.11 and a 5.8 percent implied capitalization rate in the grain area. Year of sale was an important influence on sale price per acre in areas influenced more strongly by nonagricultural influences, i.e., Douglas and Marion Counties, as evidenced both by the level of significance of the coefficient value and the value of the coefficient in each of these areas. The annual rate of property price appreciation at the mean was 14.3 percent in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County and 12.1 percent in urban influenced Marion County. While not significantly different from zero, the rate of price change was slightly negative in the grain area. Conclusions from the study were (1) that there is a significant difference in the influence of net real estate income and other property characteristics on prices of properties among selected agricultural areas of Oregon, (2) that the nature and degree of relationship between prices oi property sales analyzed and property characteristics of these sales varied considerably within each agricultural area selected for analysis, but especially in the urban-recreation and urban influenced areas, and (3) that in spite of relatively low mean rates of return in all three areas studied, a disparity between the farm use value and current market value of land was found to exist only in urban-recreation influenced Douglas County. Implication of these results are that variously influenced agricultural areas do exist, and that motives for and sources of satisfaction from ownership of property in agricultural areas vary within and among areas. / Graduation date: 1972