Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) has been developed by Environment Canada to produce the most accurate near-real-time gridded precipitation estimates. It uses the Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM) as a background and assimilates the synoptic network of weather stations through Optimal Interpolation. Accurate estimation of gridded precipitation is useful for hydrological modeling, stream ow forecasting, and climate change studies. However, the calibration and validation of hydrologic models requires long temporal coverage of data for a better performance. Since GEM/CaPA data are available only for the recent past (2002-present), the development of historical data sets starting earlier than 2002 becomes important. Using alternative models for producing the atmospheric gridded background is one solution to overcome the short temporal coverage of archived GEM data. This thesis evaluates and analyzes two candidate data sets. ERA-Interim and NARR were selected as potential alternatives to GEM background. The general conclusion of the study is that the use of ERA-Interim and NARR as background elds leads to performance results that are not signi cantly inferior to GEM after assimilation with stations in the CaPA framework. While result with the GEM background remains the best, one can cautiously conclude that for most practical applications, ERA-Interim and/or NARR may be used for the period that predates archived GEM data. The thesis presents a more detailed evaluation of ERA-Interim and NARR for di erent seasons and di erent regions of Canada. / February 2017

Traditional hydrological model inputs are often deemed inadequate in areas where stations are sparse, such as the northern extents of the Canadian Prairie basins. The Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) combines GEM (Global Environmental Multi-scale model) data and available observation data to provide enhanced precipitation estimates. The CaPA analysis has recently been extended to produce high-resolution precipitation data over the Canadian Prairies, encompassing the Nelson-Churchill River Basin. Manitoba Hydro and other water practitioners in Manitoba have expressed interest in potentially using CaPA precipitation as hydrological model forcing for Prairie watersheds. A three step validation approach was designed and applied to assess CaPA for hydrologic modelling applications in the Nelson-Churchill River basin. Results of validation show that the quality of CaPA data varies among regions and seasons, with CaPA proving beneficial in both data-sparse regions and winter seasons most prominently. Overall, CaPA shows promise for water resource application in the Canadian Prairies.

When wind power and other intermittent renewable energy (IRE) sources begin to supply a significant part of the load, concerns are often raised about the inherent intermittency and unpredictability of these sources. In order to study the impact from higher IRE penetration levels on the power system, integration studies are regularly performed. The model package presented and evaluated in Papers I–IV provides a comprehensive methodology for simulating realistic time series of wind generation and forecasts for such studies. The most important conclusion from these papers is that models based on coarse meteorological datasets give very accurate results, especially in combination with statistical post-processing. Advantages with our approach include a physical coupling to the weather and wind farm characteristics, over 30 year long, 5-minute resolution time series, freely and globally available input data and computational times in the order of minutes. In this thesis, I make the argument that our approach is generally preferable to using purely statistical models or linear scaling of historical measurements. In the variability studies in Papers V–VII, several IRE sources were considered. An important conclusion is that these sources and the load have very different variability characteristics in different frequency bands. Depending on the magnitudes and correlations of these fluctuation, different time scales will become more or less challenging to balance. With a suitable mix of renewables, there will be little or no increase in the needs for balancing on the seasonal and diurnal timescales, even for a fully renewable Nordic power system. Fluctuations with periods between a few days and a few months are dominant for wind power and net load fluctuations of this type will increase strongly for high penetrations of IRE, no matter how the sources are combined. According to our studies, higher capacity factors, more offshore wind power and overproduction/curtailment would be beneficial for the power system.

<p>Referat</p><p><strong>Klimatologisk studie av cyklonbanor över Europa med koppling till snöförhållanden i norra Sverige</strong></p><p><em>Jakob Inghammar</em></p><p>Under de senaste decennierna har temperaturen i atmosfären ökat. En sannolik effekt av detta är en förändring av förekomst och styrka för de utomtropiska cyklonerna. Deras uppträdande spelar en betydande roll för väder och klimat över de områden där de förekommer, därför är det relevant att undersöka om samvariationer för dem existerar med till exempel snöförhållanden och temperaturer. För att utforska detta har lågtryck över norra Atlanten och Europa identifierats ur återanalysdata (ERA-40) under månaderna oktober-mars för åren 1960-1999.</p><p>Denna studie visar på en signifikant ökning av lågtrycksförekomst norr om 60°N och ett signifikant avtagande söder om 60°N. För lågtryckens styrka påvisas en signifikant positiv trend för båda dessa områden. Vid en analys för var och en av månaderna oktober-mars visas att det är under framförallt månaderna januari och februari som lågtrycken med tiden förflyttats norrut och att ingen sådan trend finns för oktober och november. Mellan årens högsta uppmätta snödjup i norra Sverige och lågtrycksfrekvensen kring norra Skandinavien finns en positiv korrelation. För medeltemperaturen på norra halvklotet och över vilka breddgrader cykloner mestadels rör sig under december-mars finns en samvariation, vid varmare förhållanden förflyttas cyklonbanorna norrut. En positiv korrelation finns mellan antal lågtryck norr om 60°N och temperaturen i Abisko.</p><p>För vintrar, som i Abisko hade vitt skilda snöförhållanden, märks en avvikelse för vilka månader som lågtrycksfrekvensen kring norra Skandinavien var hög. Då snötäcket innehöll många isiga lager var lågtrycksfrekvensen hög i början och i slutet av vintern medan den var låg för månaderna i mitten. Det omvända skedde då snötäcket istället var ovanligt poröst.</p><p>En stark samvariation finns mellan den nordatlantiska oscillationen (NAO) och lågtrycksfrekvens i de olika delarna norr och söder om 60°N av det undersökta området. Vid höga NAO-index ökar frekvensen i det norra området medan det minskar i det södra. Vid låga NAO-index sker det omvända.</p><p> </p><p><strong><em>Nyckelord:</em></strong><em> cykloner, lågtryck, återanalysdata, ERA-40, snö, Abisko</em></p><p> </p> / <p>Abstract</p><p><strong>Climatologic study of cyclone tracks over Europe and linkage to snow conditions in northern Sweden</strong></p><p><em>Jakob Inghammar</em></p><p>In the last decades the temperature in the atmosphere has been increasing. One plausible effect of this is a change in frequency and intensity of the extratropical cyclones.<strong> </strong>The appearance of the extratropical cyclones is crucial for the weather conditions and climate at the latitudes where they exist. Hence it is relevant to examine if the frequency of them are related to snow conditions and temperatures. This has been investigated over the north part of the Atlantic Ocean and Europe through detection of local minima in reanalysis data (ERA 40) regarding the sea level pressure for the months October-Mars for the years 1960-1999.</p><p>The result for cyclone frequency display a significant increase in the region north of 60°N and at the same time a significant decrease in the region south of 60°N. In both regions there is a significant increase for the cyclone intensity. This trend with shifting cyclone tracks to the north is most pronounced for the months January and February while no trend can be seen for the months October and November. The maximum snow depth in the northern part of Sweden every year and the frequency of cyclones around northern Scandinavia are positively correlated. The mean temperature of the northern hemisphere and at which latitudes the cyclone tracks mostly exist during December-Mars co-varies. For the same months a positive correlation exists for the number of cyclones in the region north of 60°N and the mean temperature in Abisko.</p><p>Different winters in Abisko with very diverse snow conditions also experienced diverseness concerning cyclone frequency around northern Scandinavia. During the winters when the snow cover was holding many icy layers; the frequency was high in the beginning and in the end of the winter seasons while the cyclone frequency was low in the middle. When the snow cover instead was very porous, the cyclone frequency occurs in the opposite way.</p><p>A strong covariance exists between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the number of cyclones in each region north and south of 60°N of the examined area. When the NAO-index is positive the frequency of cyclones is elevated in the north region and at the same time reduced in the south region, when the NAO-index is negative the opposite occur.</p><p><em> </em></p><p><strong><em>Keywords:</em></strong><em> cyclones, reanalysis data, ERA-40, snow, Abisko</em></p><p> </p>

Referat Klimatologisk studie av cyklonbanor över Europa med koppling till snöförhållanden i norra Sverige Jakob Inghammar Under de senaste decennierna har temperaturen i atmosfären ökat. En sannolik effekt av detta är en förändring av förekomst och styrka för de utomtropiska cyklonerna. Deras uppträdande spelar en betydande roll för väder och klimat över de områden där de förekommer, därför är det relevant att undersöka om samvariationer för dem existerar med till exempel snöförhållanden och temperaturer. För att utforska detta har lågtryck över norra Atlanten och Europa identifierats ur återanalysdata (ERA-40) under månaderna oktober-mars för åren 1960-1999. Denna studie visar på en signifikant ökning av lågtrycksförekomst norr om 60°N och ett signifikant avtagande söder om 60°N. För lågtryckens styrka påvisas en signifikant positiv trend för båda dessa områden. Vid en analys för var och en av månaderna oktober-mars visas att det är under framförallt månaderna januari och februari som lågtrycken med tiden förflyttats norrut och att ingen sådan trend finns för oktober och november. Mellan årens högsta uppmätta snödjup i norra Sverige och lågtrycksfrekvensen kring norra Skandinavien finns en positiv korrelation. För medeltemperaturen på norra halvklotet och över vilka breddgrader cykloner mestadels rör sig under december-mars finns en samvariation, vid varmare förhållanden förflyttas cyklonbanorna norrut. En positiv korrelation finns mellan antal lågtryck norr om 60°N och temperaturen i Abisko. För vintrar, som i Abisko hade vitt skilda snöförhållanden, märks en avvikelse för vilka månader som lågtrycksfrekvensen kring norra Skandinavien var hög. Då snötäcket innehöll många isiga lager var lågtrycksfrekvensen hög i början och i slutet av vintern medan den var låg för månaderna i mitten. Det omvända skedde då snötäcket istället var ovanligt poröst. En stark samvariation finns mellan den nordatlantiska oscillationen (NAO) och lågtrycksfrekvens i de olika delarna norr och söder om 60°N av det undersökta området. Vid höga NAO-index ökar frekvensen i det norra området medan det minskar i det södra. Vid låga NAO-index sker det omvända.   Nyckelord: cykloner, lågtryck, återanalysdata, ERA-40, snö, Abisko / Abstract Climatologic study of cyclone tracks over Europe and linkage to snow conditions in northern Sweden Jakob Inghammar In the last decades the temperature in the atmosphere has been increasing. One plausible effect of this is a change in frequency and intensity of the extratropical cyclones. The appearance of the extratropical cyclones is crucial for the weather conditions and climate at the latitudes where they exist. Hence it is relevant to examine if the frequency of them are related to snow conditions and temperatures. This has been investigated over the north part of the Atlantic Ocean and Europe through detection of local minima in reanalysis data (ERA 40) regarding the sea level pressure for the months October-Mars for the years 1960-1999. The result for cyclone frequency display a significant increase in the region north of 60°N and at the same time a significant decrease in the region south of 60°N. In both regions there is a significant increase for the cyclone intensity. This trend with shifting cyclone tracks to the north is most pronounced for the months January and February while no trend can be seen for the months October and November. The maximum snow depth in the northern part of Sweden every year and the frequency of cyclones around northern Scandinavia are positively correlated. The mean temperature of the northern hemisphere and at which latitudes the cyclone tracks mostly exist during December-Mars co-varies. For the same months a positive correlation exists for the number of cyclones in the region north of 60°N and the mean temperature in Abisko. Different winters in Abisko with very diverse snow conditions also experienced diverseness concerning cyclone frequency around northern Scandinavia. During the winters when the snow cover was holding many icy layers; the frequency was high in the beginning and in the end of the winter seasons while the cyclone frequency was low in the middle. When the snow cover instead was very porous, the cyclone frequency occurs in the opposite way. A strong covariance exists between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the number of cyclones in each region north and south of 60°N of the examined area. When the NAO-index is positive the frequency of cyclones is elevated in the north region and at the same time reduced in the south region, when the NAO-index is negative the opposite occur. Keywords: cyclones, reanalysis data, ERA-40, snow, Abisko

Dans un contexte actuel préoccupé par la couche d’ozone et son recouvrement ainsi que par le réchauffement global, comprendre, représenter et modéliser la dynamique stratosphérique sont des enjeux majeurs. Une question récurrente est de pouvoir évaluer les biais des modèles à haute altitude dans la stratosphère. Or la stratosphère est une couche de l’atmosphère difficilement accessible à la mesure. Une solution est d’extraire des informations en analysant les trajectoires des ballons qui sont essentiellement conditionnées par les mouvements des masses d’air. Ces travaux de thèse ont donné naissance à une banque de données rassemblant des mesures de vent, de température et de pression issues des vols de ballons stratosphériques sur une période de plus de 20 ans à des régions variées (région polaire arctique, à moyenne latitude et en régions intertropicales) et à différentes saisons. Une méthode d’analyse des biais mesures/modèle a été mise en place et appliquée aux réanalyses ERA-Interim. Par comparaison avec une précédente étude faite dans des conditions de vortex polaire, les mesures ainsi que la méthode d’analyse des biais ont été validées. Enfin, une analyse systématique des biais sur le vent à haute altitude dans la stratosphère considérant plusieurs régions à différentes saisons a été implémentée. Les résultats montrent que les biais dans les réanalyses ERA-Interim varient et augmentent en fonction de l’altitude. Les régions associées à des régimes bien établis sont plutôt bien représentées alors que les zones de transition ou de changement de circulation présentent plus de difficultés. D’une manière générale, les résultats de biais rapportent que les réanalyses ERA-Interim sous-estiment la vitesse du vent dans la stratosphère. / In a current context focused on the ozone layer recovery and on the global warming, understand, represent and model the stratospheric dynamic became major issues. Realism of these models needs to be assessed. Unfortunately the stratosphere is an atmospheric layer hardly accessible to measurements. Balloons trajectories are mainly depending on the air masses displacements. Extract measurements from balloon trajectories is a solution. These works led to the creation of a database which contains winds, temperature and pressure measurements from stratospheric balloons flights data collected over a time period of more 20 years at several locations (arctic polar region, at mid-latitude and in tropics) and at different seasons. A methodology of winds biases analysis has been developed and has been applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. By comparing our results with a previous study, we have been able to validate the database and the winds biases analyse methodology. A systematic analyse of winds biases at high altitude in the stratosphere considering several locations/seasons has been implemented. The results show the biases in ERA-Interim reanalyses vary and rise as function of the altitude. The locations which are associated to well established circulations are rather well represented while the locations where the variability is higher present more difficulty. Globally biases results report ERA-Interim reanalyses underestimate wind speed in the stratosphere.

We use ERA-Interim reanalysis data of 2 meter temperature to perform a pattern analysis of the Arctic temperatures exploiting an artificial neural network called Self Organizing-Map (SOM). The SOM method is used as a cluster analysis tool where the number of clusters has to be specified by the user. The different sized SOMs are analyzed in terms of how the size changes the representation of specific features. The results confirm that the larger the SOM is chosen the larger will be the root mean square error (RMSE) for the given SOM, which is followed by the fact that a larger number of patterns can reproduce more specific features for the temperature. / Wir benutzten das künstliche neuronale Netzwerk Self Organizing-Map (SOM), um eine Musteranalyse von ERA-Interim Reanalysedaten durchzuführen. Es wurden SOMs mit verschiedener Musteranzahl verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass SOMs mit einer größeren Musteranzahl deutlich spezifischere Muster produzieren im Vergleich zu SOMs mit geringen Musteranzahlen. Dies zeigt sich unter anderem in der Betrachtung der mittleren quadratischen Abweichung (RMSE) der Muster zu den zugeordneten ERA Daten.

As wind power expands rapidly worldwide, it is becoming more common to build wind farms in alpine locations where the wind resources often are good and conflicting interests are few. This is evident in Sweden where a substantial portion of the large wind parks planned are to be built in cold climate locations. The fact that icing of turbine blades and sensors can severely impact the production raises the question how large the losses are. In this thesis 10 wind parks comprising 45 turbines, well dispersed throughout Sweden are investigated. Daily production figures are compared to wind data from the MERRA reanalysis data-set in order to see if it is possible to determine the level of losses during the winter period caused by cold climate. A method is suggested where a relationship between daily production and daily average wind speed is established using representative summer days. This relationship is then used to calculate an expected production for the winter period. Losses are concluded as the difference between expected and actual production. The method did not produce a consistent and reliable result for the sites investigated. However, the method captures the overall trend with higher losses in the north of Sweden compared to the sites in the south where little or no icing is likely. At the sites where icing is expected, losses in the range of 10 to 20% of the annual production were calculated.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD (Biodiversity and Conservation Biology) / Seawater temperature from regional to global scale is central to many measures of biodi- versity and continues to aid our understanding of the evolution and ecology of biolog- ical assemblages. Therefore, a clear understanding of the relationship between marine biodiversity and thermal structures is critical for effective conservation planning. In the an- thropocene, an epoch characterised by anthropogenic forcing on the climate system, future patterns in biodiversity and ecological functioning may be estimated from projected climate scenarios however; absent from many of these scenarios is the inclusion of extreme thermal events, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). There is also a conspicuous absence in knowl- edge of the drivers for all but the most notorious of these events. Before the drivers of MHWs along the coast of South Africa could be determined, it was first necessary to validate the 129 in situ coastal seawater temperature time series that could be used to this end. In doing so it was found that time series created with older (longer), lower precision (0.5 Degrees Celsius) instruments were more useful than newer (shorter) time series produced with high precision (0.001 Degrees Celsius) instruments. With the in situ data validated, a history of the occurrence of MHWs along the coastline (nearshore) was created and compared against MHWs detected by remotely sensed data (offshore). This comparison showed that the forcing of offshore temperatures onto the nearshore was much lower than anticipated, with the rates of co-occurrence for events between the datasets along the coast ranging from 0.2 to 0.5. To accommodate this lack of consistency between datasets, a much larger mesoscale area was then taken around southern Africa when attempting to determine potential mesoscale drivers of MHWs along the coast. Using a self organising-map (SOM), it was possible to organise the synoptic scale oceanographic and atmospheric states during coastal MHWs into discernible groupings. It was found that the most common synoptic oceanographic pattern during coastal MHWs was Agulhas Leakage, and the most common atmospheric pattern was anomalously warmoverland air temperatures.With these patterns known it is now necessary to calculate how often they occur when no MHW has been detected. This work may then allow for the development of predictive capabilities that could help mitigate the damage caused by MHWs.

During the last three decades, the hub height of wind turbines has increased from 24 to 162 meters and with an increasing demand for break-through innovations in green energy production it seems likely that this trend will continue. The meteorological preconditions for extreme-scale wind turbines are investigated for Scandinavia using 33 years of reanalysis data from MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications). Second degree polynomials are fitted to the wind and temperature profiles and evaluated at 100, 200 and 300 m above ground level (AGL). The spatial and temporal variation of average wind speed and median wind power density is studied. Simple metrics such as the wind shear and risk of icing, measured as occasions with temperature below freezing, are used to give an idea of the loads on the wind turbines. Winter is the windiest season, and generally the wind speed is highest over sea and in the Scandinavian mountain range. Going from 100 to 300 m AGL the average wind speed increases with 1 m/s over sea and 2 m/s over land. During night the wind speed increases over land but decreases over sea compared to daytime values. On average the wind shear is about 3.6 times larger in the 50-100 m layer than in the 100-300 m layer. The calculated wind field at 100 m AGL has been compared with results from the MIUU-model, developed at the Department of Meteorology, Uppsala University. The general features are captured but there are important discrepancies between the coast and the mountains in the northern part of Sweden. MERRA data has been validated in different ways, for example by comparing with measured wind speed and temperature profiles. The temperature profiles are in good agreement while the wind profiles differ significantly. It is also shown that MERRA data is not internally consistent in the mountain range, causing a large uncertainty. In future studies, the risk of icing could be explored further. Also, the distribution of sound from extreme-scale wind turbines could be investigated. / Under de senaste tre decennierna har navhöjden för vindkraftverk ökat från 24 till 162 meter och med en ökande efterfrågan på banbrytande innovationer inom produktion av grön energi är det troligt att denna trend kommer att fortsätta. De meteorologiska förutsättningarna för extremskaliga vindkraftverk i Skandinavien undersöks baserat på 33 års återanalysdata från MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications). Andragradspolynom anpassas till vind- och temperaturprofilerna och evalueras på höjderna 100, 200 och 300 meter över markytan. Variationen i rummet och med tiden av medelvindhastigheten och medianen av vindenergiintensiteten studeras. Enkla mått som vindskjuvningen och risken för nedisning, mätt som antalet tillfällen då temperaturen understiger fryspunkten, används för att ge en uppfattning om risken för belastningarna på vindkraftverken. Vintern är den årstid då det blåser mest och i allmänhet är vindstyrkan högst över hav och i fjälltrakterna. Förflyttar man sig från 100 till 300 m över markytan ökar medelvindhastigheten med 1 m/s över hav och med 2 m/s över land. Under natten ökar vinden över land men minskar över hav i jämförelse med värdena under dagen. I medeltal är vindskjuvningen 3.6 gånger större i 50-100 m skiktet jämfört med 100-300 m skiktet. Det beräknade vindfältet på 100 m över markytan har jämförts med resultat från MIUU-modellen, utvecklad vid institutionen för meteorologi, Uppsala universitet. De allmänna dragen är samma men det finns viktiga avvikelser mellan kusten och fjälltrakterna i norra Sverige. MERRA-data har validerats på olika sätt, till exempel genom att jämföra med uppmätta vind- och temperaturprofiler. Temperaturprofilerna visar god överensstämmelse men det är signifikanta skillnader mellan vindprofilerna. Det visas också att MERRA-data inte är konsistent i fjälltrakten, vilket medför en stor osäkerhet. I framtida studier kan risken för nedisning studeras utförligare liksom ljudutbredningen från extremskaliga vindkraftverk.