Practitioners of Forecast-based Action (FbA) argue that a humanitarian response able to utilize forecasts to accurately predict disaster, secure funding, and take action before the onset of a crisis will benefit donors and beneficiaries alike. In search of effective and efficient early-action regimes, a number of major humanitarian actors are developing FbA projects of various designs, predominantly in response to natural disaster and famine. While numerous organizations and institutions have expressed interest in developing FbA mechanisms, the tool has only been applied in a limited capacity to the humanitarian needs generated by armed conflict. This research seeks to understand whether a scalable FbA approach can be developed to stage principled, anticipatory humanitarian action in response to situations in which rigorous evaluations predict the likelihood of imminent armed conflict. The hypothesis is that the application of FbA to armed conflict is possible, but due to the complex political nature of conflict, implementing organizations should try to focus on creating mechanisms managed by humanitarian actors and, in so far as possible, be insulated from outside influence. This research is the first academic work to specifically investigate the application of FbA to armed conflict. Following an extensive review of current FbA mechanisms and conflict early warning practices, this research concludes that a conflict-centered FbA system akin to the automated FbA systems in use today to respond to natural disaster and famine is possible, but that the endeavor presents many practical and conceptual barriers to implementation. In particular, diffuse models such as the Start Fund offer a hopeful glimpse at a type of horizontal, member-driven FbA mechanism that is both highly context-sensitive and relatively insulated from outside influence. Such a design, however, features notable and inherent limitations in its ability to reliably and accurately predict the outbreak of conflict and respond in a manner that minimizes regretful actions.

This dissertation studies the history of the German Red Cross of the German Democratic Republic and the German Red Cross of the Federal Republic of Germany. The dissertation begins with Germany’s defeat and capitulation in the Second World War into the occupation period, situating the pre-1945 German Red Cross in the chaos of the war’s end and its dissolution and ban by the Allied Powers. It investigates the aid work of new regional Red Cross societies in the Western occupation zones and the political debate about the Red Cross’s place in a socialist East Germany. The dissertation also analyzes the new national Red Crosses’ formation in 1952 and their domestic activities. These are two parallel histories of states with many similarities, while existing separately from one another and with differing ideological visions for the future. The German Red Crosses remained linked by their pasts and the circumstances of the present. This reality is reflected in their efforts to join the International Red Cross from 1952 to 1956, and in their collaboration to reunify families separated by the inter-German border. The dissertation argues that the histories of the German Red Crosses and humanitarianism contributes to our understanding of the fundamental predicaments faced by divided Germany in the early-Cold War. The Red Crosses shaped the responses to the challenges facing the region, whether they be the immediate suffering and long-lasting aftereffects wrought by total war, new anxieties about a nuclear future, or the need for modern disaster response and public health infrastructures. And humanitarianism was never purely altruistic. It was a useful political tool for East and West Germany and their peoples, who sought stability and peace and the successful completion of their ideological projects: creating socialism in the East and a liberal capitalist order in the West. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / On September 19, 1945, the Soviet Military Administration in Germany disbanded the German Red Cross and labelled it a Nazi organization, and the American, British, and French occupation governments followed suit. By 1952, two new national Red Cross organizations formed in divided Germany, the German Red Cross of the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Red Cross of the German Democratic Republic. This dissertation explores the history of the German Red Cross in West and East Germany from 1945 to 1965 and asks fundamental questions about the role of humanitarianism in Germany’s postwar recovery and reconstruction, in the daily life of two distinct but connected societies, and in the international relations of the Cold War. The dissertation argues that humanitarianism and humanitarian organizations are not immune to politics; indeed, humanitarianism was a useful tool for those on both sides of the ideological divide. It helped legitimize and sustain communism in East Germany, and it did the same for liberal capitalism in West Germany. In the first postwar decades, the German Red Crosses faced head on the manifest problems of East and West Germany, as both societies recovered from the influence of Nazism, the perpetration of genocide, and the destruction of war and set out to find security and peace under the weight of the Cold War. The two organizations were uniquely positioned to face those problems as their leaders were well connected and their aid workers were both humanitarian subject and humanitarian.