The objective of this thesis is to analyse relations between the United States and China on the current and financial account of the balance of payments in the quantitative and the qualitative point of view and to evaluate the impact of mutual operations on the external equilibrium. The partial objective of the thesis is to create the entry analysis for assessment of the global imbalances of the current accounts. Current external imbalances and mutual trade and investment relations between the USA and China are the key factors of the global imbalances. The thesis is divided into two chapters. The first chapter is theoretical and it is divided into two component parts. The first part is dedicated to the definition of single components of the balance of payments (current, financial and capital account), to its determinants and to mutual relations. The balance of payments theory is based on IMF's methodology. In the second part of the first chapter are introduced the main approaches to the balance of payments, the income (keynesian, multiplier), price (elasticity) and monetary approach. The analysis of the relations in terms of balance of payments is presented in the second chapter. The current account relations are assessed in the first part of the second chapter with the focus on domestic savings, investment, processing trade and effect of the Chinese monetary policy on mutual relations. The second part of the thesis deals with financial account matters, especially with Chinese build-up of the foreign exchange, American federal debt and character of the investment that flows between the USA and China.

隨著中國經濟持續高速成長, 國際貿易及投資快速擴展, 中國更積極推動貿 易及投資以人民幣結算, 人民幣在兩岸、 區域甚至全球市場流通可望大幅 增加。 1990年代以來, 兩岸經貿快速發展, 相形下, 雙方貨幣層面合作卻明顯 幾經波折、 踟躕不前, 目前兩岸雖已開啟人民幣現鈔清算服務但尚未建立貨 幣清算機制 , 限制台灣成為人民幣清算平台及後續金融影響力。 本文以 Devereux and Shi(2005) 為主架構, 討論兩岸簽署貨幣清算機 制建立對貿易廠商影響, 主要發現如下: (1) 於國際貨幣交易需透過工具貨幣 (Vehicle Currency,VC) 現實下, 兩岸人民幣貿易結算無法完全規避匯率風險, 此與台灣中央銀行意見一致, 但當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 若台灣使用人民幣銷貨收入購買中 國商品, 台灣對中國消費將完全不受匯率變化影響, 並非所有匯率風險皆由 台灣承擔; 此外, 當中國完全使用人民幣支付自台灣進口商品時, 中國最適 決策代數式和 D-S(2005) 雙邊貨幣直接兌換均衡 (BD) 部分相同, 自2012 年6 月1 日起, 人民幣與日圓直接兌換亦正式於東京和上海外匯市場展開, 結論因而別具政策意涵。 (2) 數值分析發現, 當兩岸進出口貿易全數以人民幣結算時, 台灣及中國總 消費對外國商品消費偏好非常不穩健, 對應所有θ, 中國總消費皆較台灣高, 且隨θ上升快速增加, 由於兩岸皆較雙邊匯兌需透過美元及雙邊貨幣可直接兌換時消費更多商品, 故可知兩岸皆得利於以人民幣進行結算。 對於上述結 論, 需要特別注意的是, 本文以包括台灣、 美國及中國, 且美國為工具貨幣 (VC) 發行國之三國模型, 是在非常特例的情況下進行福利分析, 此時雙邊 貨幣兌換均衡將與對稱交易均衡相同, 影響所及, 結論受校準時使用基準參 數值影響相當大; (3) 本文依循 D-S(2005), 限制工具貨幣發行國美國以外各國僅能於跨期 間持有美元, 故無法分析中國得以人民幣購買台灣商品下, 台灣累積一定金 額人民幣存量之影響, 然為簡化分析, 排除任何調整過程, 亦為模型不合理 處; 此外, 為簡化模型, 設定中國自台灣進口商品貨款中使用人民幣支付比 率α為外生, 然而該比率實際上應受人民幣在岸、 離岸市場利差及匯差、 全 球景氣變化增加持有美元意願等因素影響, 由於本文僅考慮貿易需求換匯 未考慮套利、 套匯行為, 將留待未來進一步分析。 / For the past three decades, a skyrocketing Chinese economy has supported its growing influences on international trade and investment,with Beijing’s active promotion for Renminbi investment and trade settlement, its greater circulation across the strait, in the Asia-Pacific region or even globally is only to be expected. Compared with the significantly intensified and institutionalized cross-strait trade and economic exchanges since early 1990s, monetary cooperation across the strait has obviously stalled and progressed slowly. Currently with only a cross-strait cash settlement agreement,but not an establishment of a cross-strait currency settlement mech- anism clearly limits Taiwan’s prospect to become the next offshore Renminbi center and its future financial influence. This thesis is based on Devereux and Shi(2005) to query into the effect of a cross-strait currency settlement mechanism for firms engaged in international trade. We find that: First, under the reality that international currency trade still uti- lizes U.S. dollar as a vehicle, cross-strait trade settled in Renminbi could not completely avoid exchange rate risks, which is in accordance with the opinion from central bank, however, when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, Taiwan would not bears all the exchange rate risks if Taiwan’s imports from China were paid in its Renminbi sales revenue; Furthermore, when all of China’s imports from Taiwan are settled in Renminbi, some of the algebraic expressions representing Chinese consumption and currency exchange decisions would coincide with the bilateral deviation(BD) equilibrium in D-S(2005) entailing some intriguing policy implications since starting from June 1,2012, yuan and yen can trade directly in Tokyo and Shanghai . Second,numerical analysis found that when cross-strait trade are all settled in Renminbi, though both sides’ total consumption are not robust to changes in preference toward foreign goods ,θ, for all θ in the relevant range , China’s total consumption is greater than Taiwan and the difference is increase in θ, in addition, they both consume more than when cross-strait remittance needs to be done via the U.S. dollar and when New Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan trade directly, it thus can be inferred that both Taiwan and China gain from Renminbi trade settlement.Though cautions should be taken that a welfare anal- ysis utilizing a three-country model consisting of Taiwan, China and the United States which further acts as the issuing country of vehicle currency is an extreme case, in that, bilateral deviation and symmet- rical trading equilibrium (STE) would be identical and the outcome highly subjects to benchmark values used in calibration. Third,The framework is borrowed from Devereux and Shi(2005) which prohibits non-vehicle countries from holding currencies other than U.S. dollar intertemporally, hence it could not provide any in- sights to the effects of the accumulation of a Renminbi pool in Taiwan under the Renminbi trade settlement scheme, which together with the fact that to simplify analysis, no adjusting process is included ren- der the model unreasonable and unrealistic; In addition, to reduce model construction, α, the percentage of China’s imports from Tai- wan to be paid in Renminbi is exogenous while in reality it should be endogenous and collectively determined by factors not exclusive to the spreads between CNY and CNH, differences in depositing and lending rates between the onshore and offshore market and investors’ inclination which is affected by the outlook of the global economy to embrace the safe haven of U.S. dollar. As arbitrage is ruled out and only currency exchanges for the purposes of trade is considered, all these drawbacks are to be improved upon in further studies.

This thesis analyzes the development of financial system of the People's Republic of China in the period from 1995 to 2015. The thesis is solved in the continuing process of Chinese economy liberalization. Main goal of the thesis is to analyze particular aspects of Chinese financial and monetary system and point out its potential risks as well. To achieve this goal the method of analysis has been chosen, especially system analysis and sector analysis. The thesis shows that one of main risks of the liberalization of Chinese financial sector is especially growing loans volume in its economy which is connected in growing rate of non-productive loans respectively. Next risk is the structure of investors in capital market. Based on findings it is able to say the highest risk of banking sector is connected with growing shadow banking as the alternative financing method. The thesis finds the completing of capital account liberalization and interest rate liberalization to be important too. Main benefit of the thesis except of Chinese financial sector analysis is comparison of different point of views about forecasting of future of the Chinese economy.

The thesis focuses on the question of undervaluation of the renminbi exchange rate to the U.S. dollar from the perspective of three selected alternative methods of calculating long term equilibrium exchange rate. In the case of calculations of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and the natural real exchange rate, I performed calculations by using vector error correction model. In the case of fundamental equilibrium exchange rate I used error correction model. The input data used in the models are ranging from 1980 to 2010. Those are primarily value of nominal exchange rates, price levels and foreign trade. According to my results behavioural and fundamental equilibirum exchange rate show undervaluation of the renminbi to the year 2010, while the natural real exchange rate indicates a slight overvaluation of the renminbi to the year 2010.

人民幣是否可能成為另一個重要的國際貨幣，甚至挑戰美元的國際地位？此即本論文的問題意識。對此，本論文進一步提出三個研究問題：一是如何測量當前的人民幣國際化程度？二是如何測量當前的人民幣資本開放程度？三是資本開放對於人民幣國際化程度的影響為何？ 為此，本研究利用主成分分析（PCA），以建構人民幣國際化程度（CIDI）與人民幣資本帳開放程度（CAOI）。其次再利用動態追蹤資料模型──系統一般動差估計法（SGMM），以檢證各項人民幣綜合競爭力對於貨幣國際化程度的影響。最後，本研究進一步梳理人民幣資本帳開放的進程，並結合上述所有實證分析的結果，進而預估漸進資本開放下人民幣國際化的前景。研究對象包括人民幣在內的33種國際貨幣，研究時間則起自1999年歐元成立，迄於2009年。 本論文的發現三：一是，當前人民幣國際化程度進展相當快速。但截至2009年年底，人民幣國際化程度還很低，遠落後於美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊等主要國際貨幣。不僅如此，人民幣國際化程度也遜於俄羅斯盧布、巴西里拉，以及印度盧比等開發中國家所發行的貨幣。 二是，過去10年來，人民幣資本帳開放程度不升反降，截至2009年年底，人民幣的資本帳開放程度維持在零，這表示：人民幣是世界上管制最為嚴格的貨幣。相對而言，美元、歐元、日圓，以及英鎊的資本帳開放程度至少都在70％以上，特別是英鎊的資本帳開放程度更趨近於完全開放。 三是，根據SGMM的實證結果顯示，網路外部性、經濟規模、金融市場規模、貨幣穩定度，以及資本開放程度都是影響貨幣國際化程度的關鍵因素。在此基礎上，本研究利用發生機率（odds ratio），以計算不同資本開放情境下，人民幣成為前10大國際貨幣的可能性。結果顯示，如果人民幣的資本帳開放到73％左右，人民幣便可擠進前10大國際貨幣（發生機率為65.6％）。 不過，這只是最為保守的估計。原因有二：一是，隨者中國經濟實力的崛起，以及人民幣預期升值的脈絡下，國際市場對於人民幣的需求原本就很高。此時，人民幣資本帳如果能適時開放，則人民幣的國際持有將大幅增加。換言之，本研究沒有考量到，各貨幣競爭力因素與資本開放程度之間的加乘效果。 二是，資本開放不僅直接對貨幣國際化程度產生影響，也會透過擴大金融市場規模與網路外部性等其他貨幣競爭力因素，間接對貨幣國際化程度造成影響。這間接效果，本研究也沒有考量到。因此，可以預期的是，只要人民幣資本帳能夠漸進開放，人民幣國際化的前景將比本研究所預估的高出許多。 / This paper discusses whether the Renminbi (RMB) will become an international currency, even challenging to the U.S. dollar. In order to examine above question, this paper take the following three steps: 1. By using principal component analyses (PCA), this paper constructs two indices: currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) and capital account liberalization degree index (CAOI); 2. By using dynamic panel data model-system generalized method of moment (SGMM), this paper analyzes factors affect the CIDI, including economic and trade size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI; 3. According to the PCA and SGMM results, this paper calculates the odds ratio of RMB becoming important international currency. The reserch achieved the following results. First, the degree of internationalization of the RMB progress very fast, but the RMB CIDI is still very low, its CIDI far behinds the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, and pounds. Second, over the past 10 years, RMB CAOI is not increased but decreased. Its CAOI is at zero in 2009, this means that: the RMB is the most stringent controls in the world currency. In contrast, U.S. dollars, euros, yen, and pound CAOI are at least in more than 70%. Third, according to the SGMM results, economic size, financial system, network externalities, confidence in the currency’s value, and CAOI are key factors affect the CIDI. Based on this output, this paper forecasted that if the RMB CAOI is open to about 73%, RMB could be squeezed into the top 10 of the international currency. (The odds ratio is 65.6%) It is noteworthy that this is only the lowest estimates. This is because that this paper did not consider the interaction effects of each currency competitiveness factors and CAOI. Therefore, if RMB CAOI continues open, the prospect of RMB CIDI is much higher than estimated by this paper.

I evaluate four possible approaches the United States may take to address China's practice of undervaluing the renminbi: 1) a challenge under Article XV of the GATT and the associated IMF provisions; 2) countervailing duties; 3) antidumping measures; and 4) safeguard measures. I conclude that the first three approaches are unlikely to succeed; there are a number of legal and political obstacles to the pursuit of these remedies. While the current WTO safeguards regime is likely insufficient, a new safeguards regime can--and should--be developed. I review and critique Dani Rodrik's proposal for a new safeguards regime and set out my own basic blueprint for a significantly expanded safeguards regime, emphasizing that flexibility in the realm of international trade law would help to secure overall stability in international trade itself. In order to be effective shock absorbers, safeguards must become far more flexible.

I evaluate four possible approaches the United States may take to address China's practice of undervaluing the renminbi: 1) a challenge under Article XV of the GATT and the associated IMF provisions; 2) countervailing duties; 3) antidumping measures; and 4) safeguard measures. I conclude that the first three approaches are unlikely to succeed; there are a number of legal and political obstacles to the pursuit of these remedies. While the current WTO safeguards regime is likely insufficient, a new safeguards regime can--and should--be developed. I review and critique Dani Rodrik's proposal for a new safeguards regime and set out my own basic blueprint for a significantly expanded safeguards regime, emphasizing that flexibility in the realm of international trade law would help to secure overall stability in international trade itself. In order to be effective shock absorbers, safeguards must become far more flexible.