The main purpose of the study is to investigate the exchange rate trend of China Renminbi from 1949 to nowadays, and predict the possibilities of the developed trend of China Renminbi in the future to investigate the problems of Chins Renminbi at present. It can divide China Renminbi into three periods, there are Centrally Planned Economy Period (1949~1979), Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve (1980~1993), and Economy Adjustment Period (1994 to nowadays). The rate standard of Renminbi is usually under the China Economy policy consideration. First of all, the China Renminbi of Centrally Planned Economy Period is based on the policy consideration of the heavy industrialization, and it tends to overvalue the rate exchange to decrease the import prime cost. This condition is similar to East Europe countries before Soviet Union dismissed. Second, the Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve tends to decrease the export cost to solicit the business. And it tents to underestimate the rate exchange similar to Taiwan of 1970s and Japan after World War II, before Plaza Accord. Moreover, the Renminbi of Economy Adjustment Period overvalued the rate exchange, but it keeps stable. The overvalued and stable standard of rate exchange strengthens the export competition of China. At the same time, it accumulate great deal of Foreign reserve which similar to the development countries of Southeast Asian to adopt Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Pegged to US Dollar. China accumulate great deal of foreign exchange because of the overvalued rate exchange, and it made the rate standard of Renminbi concerned by international. China can not self-contained after entering WTO, they have to face the opening market and the restriction of international regulations. China restricts itself by the textile industry, and they purchase foreign bond (American bond) to decrease the pressure of the appreciation of Renminbi. Even if the rate system of Renminbi has change from control the dollar to basket-pegged exchange rate regime, and it does not break away the connection between Hong Kong currencies. The Hong Kong currencies have risk of Hot Money. China still can not open their capital during the short term time to make the Renminbi floating and become convertible currency because of their economy circumstance; however, the expected long term rate of Renminbi revaluation is a necessary trend of the future.

Cette thèse fournit une analyse du régime de change en Chine qui est dans la phase de transformation. A travers trois études empiriques, qui constituent chacune un chapitre, nous proposons trois analyses portant sur i) les taux de change d'équilibre du RMB et les désajustements de cette devise pour la période de 1994 à 2007 ; ii) l’efficacité du contrôle des mouvements des capitaux en Chine ; iii) l’impact de l’évolution du taux de change réel du RMB sur la disparité de la croissance économique des provinces chinoises. Les principaux résultats de ces travaux sont les suivants : 1) pendant la crise financière asiatique et durant les années 2001-2002, le RMB était surévalué. Il n'était sous-évalué que sur la période récente, 2003-2005, avec un désajustement limité à 8%; on a également constaté de légères surévaluations après la mise en place du nouveau régime de change en 2005; 2) l'intensité de facto du contrôle des capitaux augmente au fil du temps, même pendant la période de turbulence financière de 2007-2008. Par ailleurs, la vitesse légèrement ralentie de l'ajustement vers le seuil de non-arbitrage implique que le contrôle des capitaux est encore efficace. Toutefois, les deux indicateurs (la composition des flux de capitaux et la fuite des capitaux) montrent que le contrôle des capitaux n'est pas toujours efficace et le compte financier est poreux; 3) Selon nos résultats, non seulement des facteurs, comme l'investissement, la croissance naturelle de la population et le capital humain, ont un impact sur la croissance, mais également une appréciation du taux de change réel pourrait favoriser la croissance économique des provinces chinoises. / This thesis provides an analysis of exchange rate regime in China in transformation. Through three empirical studies, which constitutes each a chapter, we propose three empirical analysis on i) the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and its misalignments for the period 1994 to 2007; ii) the effectiveness of capital controls in China; iii) the impact of real exchange rate of RMB on the disparity of economic growth of China's provinces. The main results of this thesis are as follows: At first, during the Asian financial crisis and during the years 2001-2002, the RMB was overvalued. It was undervalued only for the recent period from 2003 to 2005, with a misalignment limited to 8%; we also found a slight overvaluation after the introduction of the new exchange rate regime in 2005. Secondly, the de facto intensity of capital controls increases over time, even during the period of financial turbulence of 2007-2008. Moreover, the slightly slower speed of adjustment to the threshold of no-arbitrage implies that capital controls are still effective. However, both indicators of flow (the composition of capital flows and capital flight) show that capital controls are not always effective and the financial account is porous. Thirdly, our results showed that not only the factors such as the investment, the natural growth rate of population and human capital have an impact on growth, but also an appreciation of real exchange rate would stimulate economic growth of China's provinces.

Thesis advisor: Eyal Dvir / This research studies the effect of exchange rate expectations on A-H share discount in China and Hong Kong. The A-H class listing of Chinese stocks offers an interesting framework to examine asset price in segmented markets. This research wants to contribute to the existing literatures by adding other currencies into the exchange rate model and verify their effect, introducing and controlling for company specific information, such as earnings. I find that the effect of both Euro and US dollar to be significant in explaining the share price disparity, and companies in different sector and with different market capitalization react to currency information differently. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2013. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics Honors Program. / Discipline: Economics.

This thesis studies the equilibrium real effective exchange rates and the degree of misalignment of currencies. It focuses on the real effective exchange rates of Icelandic króna and Chinese renminbi, with special attention paid to the evolution of these exchange rates in the period of crisis. It identifies key factors influencing the real effective exchange rates of króna and renminbi, calculates their equilibrium level and confirms that these currencies were misaligned in the pre-crisis period. It stresses the impact of real interest rate differential in the case of króna and of sterilization operations applied by the People's Bank of China in the case of renminbi. It further examines whether the relationship between real exchange rates and economic fundamentals was distorted in the crisis. Finally, the thesis provides an insight into whether the crisis led to narrowing the degree of misalignment of renminbi and króna.

Submitted by Franciele Moreira (francielemoreyra@gmail.com) on 2017-11-09T18:32:39Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Ingrid Lucy klein - 2017.pdf: 3225621 bytes, checksum: 93334b8256924edf898c91001ffd8891 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2017-11-13T12:08:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Ingrid Lucy klein - 2017.pdf: 3225621 bytes, checksum: 93334b8256924edf898c91001ffd8891 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-11-13T12:08:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Ingrid Lucy klein - 2017.pdf: 3225621 bytes, checksum: 93334b8256924edf898c91001ffd8891 (MD5) license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-27 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / With the intention of revealing the political power that can be tied to a currency, the present study intends to present how the Chinese are internationalizing the renminbi, the Chinese currency, in Brazil as a mirror of the force of this process in the world. Over the last few years, the relevance that China has consistently gained globally is indisputable. Recently, aiming to keep the power obtained and to increase it, the Chinese have devoted expressive attention to the performance of their currency in international economic transactions. This dissertation aims to measure the internationalization of the renminbi in Brazil through the political analysis of the Sino-Brazilian monetary relations between 2008 and 2014. It seeks to understand to what extent the use of renminbi in economic exchanges between the two countries is identified and what is politically noticeable to detect, considering the reflexes of this process in both nations. From a bibliographic review of important and current works related to the theme, an evaluation of the Chinese currency use performance among Brazilians was guided. It was possible to diagnose that the political relations between Brazilians and the Chinese created a conducive atmosphere to the use of China's currency in Brazil, starting in 2009 and acquiring greater consistency and continuous increase from 2011. This evolution in the use of China's currency in Brazilian lands reflects the Chinese monetary power and its continuous enhancement in the Sino-Brazilian monetary relations, that is, in the expansion of the use of renminbi in the Brazilian territory. This finding illustrates how the internationalization of the renminbi is a phenomenon: new, due to its short time of exercise; questioning, because it offers embarrassment at some level to the behavior of the most relevant currency in the world, the US dollar; and vigorous, because its growth is configured as constant and expressive. / Com a intenção de revelar o poder político que pode ser atrelado a uma moeda, a presente pesquisa tenciona apresentar como os chineses estão internacionalizando o renminbi, a moeda chinesa, no Brasil como espelho da força desse processo no mundo. Ao longo dos últimos anos, a relevância que a China tem adquirido consistentemente no plano global é indiscutível. Recentemente, almejando manter o poderio obtido e incrementá-lo, os chineses tem dedicado expressiva atenção ao desempenho de sua moeda nas transações econômicas internacionais. Esta dissertação objetiva mensurar a internacionalização do renminbi no Brasil por meio da análise política das relações monetárias sino-brasileiras entre 2008 e 2014. Busca-se compreender em que medida se identifica o uso do renminbi nas trocas econômicas entre os dois países e o que é perceptível politicamente detectar a partir dos reflexos desse processo para ambas as nações. A partir de uma revisão bibliográfica de obras importantes e atuais relacionadas ao tema, guiou-se a avaliação sobre a performance da utilização da moeda chinesa entre os brasileiros. Foi possível diagnosticar que as relações políticas entre brasileiros e chineses criaram uma atmosfera propícia à utilização da moeda da China no Brasil, sendo iniciada em 2009 e adquirindo maior consistência e contínuo aumento a partir de 2011. Esta evolução no uso da moeda da China em terras brasileiras reflete o poder monetário chinês e seu contínuo engrandecimento que se reflete nas relações monetárias sino-brasileiras, ou seja, na ampliação do uso do renminbi no território brasileiro. Esta constatação ilustra como a internacionalização do renminbi se trata de um fenômeno: novo, por conta do seu pouco tempo de exercício; questionador, por oferecer constrangimento em certo nível ao comportamento da moeda mais relevante no mundo, o dólar estadunidense; e vigoroso, pelo fato de seu crescimento se configurar como constante e expressivo.

A growing number of Chinese corporations have been listing their shares on foreign stock markets. Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are their major targets. Taking China’s exchange rate system reform as a unique event, I examine the price disparity between A-share and H-share (or ADR) using a sample of 28 Chinese companies listed in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and New York. I conduct a panel-data investigation to examine the price disparity before and after the transition from the pegged to the managed floating exchange rate. I have obtained several important findings in this study. First, RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 has significant effect on price disparity between A-shares and H-shares and also between A-share and ADR, which shows that relaxation of the exchange rate control brings about a clear convergence of A-share price with foreign share price. This result is robust with different models. Second, we also found that currency factor has significant effect on price premium between A-shares and foreign shares. Appreciation in RMB would lead to a decrease in price premium. In addition, exchange rate reform exerts its effect whether or not we take into account the impact from the Split-share structure reform.

Partant de la théorie de la concurrence des monnaies internationales, notre travail de thèseanalyse le rôle du renminbi dans l’économie mondiale. Cette nouvelle approche amène àréfléchir sur la configuration du système monétaire international du XXIe siècle. La premièrepartie retrace la longue marche du dollar qui finira par supplanter progressivement la livresterling. L’inertie monétaire observée pour la livre sterling se retrouve également au niveaudu dollar. De ce fait, la réforme du SMI actuel suivra un chemin semé d’embûches. Le SMIfondé sur le dollar n’est ni efficient, ni équitable. C’est pourquoi, un SMI multipolaire estsouhaitable à long terme. Le polycentrisme monétaire, dont on parle depuis le début durégime des changes flottants, deviendrait alors une réalité. Parmi les concurrents potentiels dudollar, le renminbi se positionne comme un sérieux outsider. D’ailleurs, notre analyse montrequ’il est déjà la troisième monnaie en termes de compétitivité. La deuxième partie metl’accent sur l’internationalisation du renminbi. Depuis les réformes économiques initiées dansles années 1980, la Chine a connu une croissance sans précédent par rapport aux sièclesderniers. Grâce à ce remarquable essor, il est fort possible que le renminbi rejoigne un jour leclub très fermé des monnaies internationales. Mais, la Chine souffre également de nombreuxhandicaps, liés en particulier au contrôle du compte financier et au régime de change. Ce quisuppose que le billet rouge deviendra une monnaie régionale avant d’être internationale. Latroisième partie étudie l’émergence du SMI tripolaire centré sur le dollar, l’euro et le renminbi,et ses conséquences sur l’économie mondiale. Sur la base de notre analyse, nous concluonsque le SMI actuel est déjà en partie tripolaire. Ceci contribue à sa stabilité mais sans résoudrele dilemme de Triffin ni apporter de véritables gains commerciaux à l’économie mondiale.Nous sommes aujourd’hui en train d’évoluer vers un vrai SMI tripolaire, une évolution quidépendra de la compétitivité future de l’euro et du renminbi, de manière à surclasser laposition dominante du dollar. / Based on the theory of international currency competition, our thesis work analyzes the roleof the renminbi in the global economy. This novel approach allows us to reflect on the statusof the international monetary system in the 21st century. The first part follows the longprocess of the dollar, progressively replacing the pound sterling. The monetary inertiaobserved in the pound sterling was also found in the dollar today. Consequently, thereformation of the current IMS follows a path which is full of hazards. The IMS based on thedollar is neither efficient nor equitable. So, a multi-polar IMS is desirable in the long run.Monetary polycentrism, as talked about since the beginning of floating changes, wouldbecome a reality. Among the potential competitors of the dollar, the renminbi plays the role ofan outsider, and our analysis shows that the renminbi is already the third currency in terms ofcompetitivity. The second part focuses on the internationalization of the renminbi. Since theeconomic reforms in the 1980s, China has experienced a significant growth that has neverbeen seen in previous centuries. Taking into account the rise of China, it is entirely possiblefor the renminbi to become a new international currency. However, China still suffers from anumber of handicaps, in particular the control of financial accounts and exchange rate regime,which supposes that the red bill will become a regional currency before being international.The third part analyses the emergence of tri-polar IMS, centered on the dollar, the euro, andthe renminbi, and its consequences on the global economy. According to our analysis, weconclude that the current IMS is already partly tri-polar, which contributes to the stability ofthe IMS without solving the Triffin dilemma, but brings little commercial gain to the globaleconomy. Today, we are evolving towards a real tri-polar IMS. Yet, this evolution depends onthe future competitivity between the euro and the renminbi in such a way as to surpass thedominant position of the dollar.

Submitted by RAFAEL VIEIRA (rafaelalfinito@hotmail.com) on 2013-09-09T19:11:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Ineficiências entre os mercados onshore e offshore de Renminbi FINAL.pdf: 4100935 bytes, checksum: fff31a898528ebe95f7a18c3d9475ad7 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-09-19T17:44:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Ineficiências entre os mercados onshore e offshore de Renminbi FINAL.pdf: 4100935 bytes, checksum: fff31a898528ebe95f7a18c3d9475ad7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-09-19T17:44:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ineficiências entre os mercados onshore e offshore de Renminbi FINAL.pdf: 4100935 bytes, checksum: fff31a898528ebe95f7a18c3d9475ad7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-27 / Autoridades chinesas tem buscado agir com rapidez, mas com costumeira cautela, para que sua moeda seja capaz de adquirir status de moeda internacional de reserva. Embora tal objetivo exija eliminação ou considerável relaxamento dos controles de capitais, estes ainda existem e geram significativas distorções entre os mercados de câmbio e juros em Renminbi onshore, na China Continental, e offshore, em Hong Kong. Este trabalho descreve algumas destas distorções através da análise de instrumentos financeiros operados nos mercados à vista de moeda (Renminbi spot), forward de moeda (NDF de Renminbi), e de dívida governamental e corporativa em Hong Kong (Dim Sum Bonds). / Chinese authorities seek to act quickly, but with cu stomary caution, so that it s currency can assume the status of international reserve currency. Although this requires the elimination or considerable relaxation of inst ated capital controls, these still exist and generate significant distortions in the Renminbi currency and interest rate markets onshore, in Mainland China, and offshore, in Hong Kong. The present work describes some of these distortions through the analys is of financial instruments transacted in the Renminbi spot currency market, the Renminbi forward market (NDF), and the Renminbi government and corporate debt markets in Hong Kong ( Dim Sum Bonds).

The aim of this paper is to investigate if a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is in China’s interest and whether or not a renminbi revaluation can contribute to correct the US current account deficit. For that purpose, advantages and disadvantages of a revaluation for China are discussed. Furthermore, the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are analysed to evaluate to what extent a renminbi revaluation can correct this imbalance. The discussion is based on previous research in this area. The main result is that a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is primarily beneficial for China. Additionally it is found that the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are domestic macroeconomic conditions and not China’s exchange rate policy. Nevertheless, a renminbi revaluation can help to support to correct the imbalance situation. As evidence is found that a revaluation is beneficial for China, it is further analysed how the revaluation should be practically obtained. The basic result is that the renminbi revaluation should be initiated by more exchange rate flexibility rather than by a one-step appreciation.

「人民幣」（RMB）有著相當特殊的背景因素，基於歷史背景不同，經濟體制不同，與西方國家的貨幣（如美元、歐元）發展差異很大；未來人民幣是否可能成為重要的國際儲備貨幣，甚至可能會威脅到美元的世界領導地位？而「離岸中心」（Offshore Financial Center），則是在規劃人民幣國際化過程中，一個相當關鍵的階段，除了可以增加人民幣的交易，也能夠促進人民幣於在岸與離岸市場之間的使用與流通的龐大商機。 本研究首先由貨幣市場的歷史回顧與發展現況進行探討，接著針對人民幣的現行體系、各離岸中心運作模式等逐一分析，藉由分析人民幣離岸中心業務與營運，來了解過去、現在及未來的發展方向，並且對於人民幣離岸中心目前所遇到的問題給予建議。最後針對台灣，探討目前策略定位與未來發展人民幣離岸中心之成功要素。 本研究結論為，以長期來說，根據IMF國際貨幣基金組織的報告指出：人民幣是最有潛力在國際上被廣泛使用的貨幣，基於中國龐大的經濟規模、多元化的貿易結構、總體經濟穩定以及高經濟成長率，而人民幣未來也將會成為主要的國際貨幣。因此，台灣爭取成為人民幣離岸中心，已經是刻不容緩的事，未來更可順勢發展成為國際金融中心。期望本研究能提供給本國與外商金融業者之策略發展，並提出建議供主管機關相關政策制定參考之用。 關鍵字：人民幣、離岸中心、貨幣 / "Renminbi" (RMB) has a very special background, based on the historical matter, the different economic system matter, and that varies greatly in comparison with the Western countries' currencies (such as the US dollar, Euro). Does the RMB likely to become an important international reserve currency in the future? Is it possible that threat to US dollar's leader role in the world? Moreover, the "Offshore Financial Center" is in a very critical stage of internationalization for the RMB, not only to enlarge the volume of RMB transactions, but also to promote the RMB in between the onshore and offshore markets for business and circulation enormous opportunities. In this study, starts from the historical review of currency markets and discuss the present state of development, follows by the current system of the RMB, as well as the operating model of the other offshore financial centers to benchmark, by analyzing the RMB offshore centers' business and operations, to understand in the past, present and future direction of development. To come out the solutions currently given to the problems encountered, and make recommendations for the offshore RMB center. Further to Taiwan, to discuss the current and future development of strategic positioning for the best practice of becoming the offshore RMB financial center. In conclusion, as for the long-term, according to IMF working paper: the RMB holds the most potential to become widely used internationally, due to China's large economic size, diversified trade structure and network, macroeconomic stability, and high growth rates which can be expected that the RMB will become a major international currency. Therefore, the development of offshore RMB financial center is already an urgent matter for Taiwan. The success of it can further become the international financial center in the next step. In the end, we hope this study can provide the great views to local and foreign financial institutions, and make some recommendations of relevant policy to government authority for reference purposes. Keywords: RMB, Renminbi, Offshore Financial Center, Currency