O objetivo do presente estudo à o de analisar os principais determinantes do salÃrio de reserva e da duraÃÃo do desemprego, utilizando como evidÃncia a base de dados da Pesquisa de PadrÃo de Vida do IBGE (1996-1997). Para tanto, duas metodologias economÃtricas sÃo utilizadas. Na anÃlise de salÃrio de reserva, estima-se uma equaÃÃo de salÃrios, cujo principal determinante utilizado à a duraÃÃo do desemprego. A estimaÃÃo utiliza mÃnimos quadrados em dois estÃgios para atenuar o viÃs de simultaneidade presente. Os resultados mostram que a duraÃÃo do desemprego afeta negativamente o salÃrio de reserva do trabalhador. Esse resultado està de acordo com a evidÃncia empÃrica internacional. Na anÃlise de duraÃÃo, estima-se a funÃÃo risco empÃrica a partir dos modelos de Risco Proporcional e Proporcional de Cox, com e sem heterogeneidade nÃo-observada. Os parÃmetros estimados possuem os sinais usuais, com exceÃÃo da dummy para sexo. O risco de sair do desemprego à monotonicamente crescente inicialmente, e, apÃs a inclusÃo de heterogeneidade nÃo observada, passa a apresentar um perfil nÃo-monotÃnico. Esses resultados oferecem uma perspectiva nova para tentar entender as mudanÃas ocorridas no mercado de trabalho brasileiro durante a dÃcada de 90. / The objective of this study is to analyze the main determinants of reservation wages and unemployment duration using as empirical evidence the PPV - Pesquisa de PadrÃo de Vida from IBGE (1996-1997). For this purpose, two econometric methodologies are used. For reservation wages, we estimate a traditional wage regression model whose main determinant used was unemployment duration. In order to attenuate simultaneity bias, two-stage regressions are used. The results show that unemployment duration negatively affects the workersâ reservation wages. This corroborates international evidence. Regarding the analysis of duration, we estimate proportional hazards models, with and without unobserved heterogeneity. The estimated parameters have the usual signals, except for the dummy for sex. The risk of leaving unemployment raises initially, and then, after including unobserved heterogeneity, shows a non-monotonic profile. These results offer a new perspective to try to understand the changes that have occurred in the Brazilian labor market during the 90âs.

The state of Virginia has been a leader in the design and implementation of welfare reform measures. State welfare reforms were enacted in 1996 and federal reforms followed shortly after in 1996. Initial decreases in program caseloads and the movement of former recipients from unemployment to employment have led initial reform measures to be widely heralded as successes. Significant concerns remain, however, about the ability of non-metropolitan labor markets to absorb female household heads currently on welfare. This thesis addresses potential differences in the impact of welfare reform measures in non-metropolitan and metropolitan labor markets by estimating wage and reservation wage equations for female household heads in Northern and Southwest Virginia. The results suggest young children and lack of access to automobiles create significantly greater barriers to employment in non-metropolitan than metropolitan labor markets. Estimated potential earnings in Southwest Virginia were lower than in Northern Virginia and suggest that female household heads will have trouble escaping poverty through employment. In fact, initial reported earnings for both areas have fallen below estimates of living wages needed to escape poverty. The results also suggest traditional labor market characteristics do not explain all of the differences in earnings, particularly the differences in the observed wages of persons exiting welfare as compared to the general population. If this is the case, policies that only address child care and transportation costs may have little impact as to the ability of welfare recipients to get and keep jobs that enable them to become economically self-sufficient. / Master of Science

本文分成兩個部分探討失業者的工作搜尋決策，第一部分利用遞延選擇權模型模擬市場景氣、預期工作機會出現機率、不確定性等因素對失業者工作搜尋決策的影響。第二部份利用2006年至2010年主計處的「人力資源調查」及「人力運用調查」資料從事實證分析。本文從實證分析中驗證以下的模擬結果：一、市場上的工資波動率與失業者的保留工資有正向關係，與移轉到就業的機率有負向關係。二、失業者對工作機會出現機率的預期較高時，擁有較高的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較低。另外，學習速度較快的失業者在搜尋工作的過程中會以較快的速度下降保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。三、失業者對於工作搜尋報酬的不確定程度較高時，擁有較低的保留工資，移轉到就業的機率較高。 / This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is devoted to applying a real option approach to simulate the impacts of market prospect, expected offer arrival rate, and uncertainty on job search decisions. The second part provides an empirical illustration to validate the simulation results by using unemployment data from the 2006-2010 Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey. The main findings of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (i) The wage volatility is related positively with the reservation wage of the unemployed, but inversely with the transition probability into employment. (ii) If a rising offer arrival rate is expected, the unemployed increase reservation wages and thus decrease transition probabilities. Furthermore, higher learning speed acts to intensively lower the reservation wage. (iii) When the degree of payoff uncertainty is higher, the unemployed decrease reservation wages and thus increase transition probabilities.