This paper discusses residential water demand in Central Texas, specifically the Cities of Austin and Sunset Valley. Predicting and managing residential water demand is a much researched topic that has gained importance as water has been recognized as a finite resource whose conservation and efficient use becomes more important as population grows and development patterns sprawl. Using monthly water use data from both cities, a statistical analysis was conducted of usage numbers and patterns. Several variables were considered in the modeling process including: monthly precipitation and average temperature, house size (sq. ft.), lot size (sq. ft.), appraised value of homestead, type of landscaping and presence of pool. For the City of Austin, aggregate monthly water distributed to single family residences and climate data that corresponded to each month were used in a linear regression for the fiscal years 2003-07. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between water use among single family residential Austin Water Utility customers and precipitation and temperature (R² = .456). A more thorough examination of water use in Sunset Valley revealed a somewhat inconclusive relationship between residential water use and the aforementioned independent variables. Both a "fixed effects" panel data model and a simple linear regression model reported extremely low R² results (both .097). Several reasons are proposed in an attempt to explain the results, which differ from previous studies but no clear reason is identifiable. / text

Outdoor water use by single-family residences in the desert city of Tucson, Arizona is investigated as a multi-scaled coupled human-environment system, using remotely sensed images, GIS data, household water use records and survey responses. Like many desert cities, Tucson's municipal water system faces stresses at multiple spatial and temporal scales: rising demand, limited supplies, competition for distant resources and the likelihood of shortages due to regional climate change. Though the need for demand management is recognized, conflict between the long-term regional scale of the ecosystem that sustains Tucson's water supply and the short-term, local scale of the municipal utility results in a "lack of fit", shown here as the inability to reduce consumption to sustainable levels.While direct regulation of outdoor water use has not been successful, geographic research suggests that modification of the built environment, the focus of the three studies comprising this dissertation, holds promise as a demand management strategy. The first study is a spatial analysis of survey responses on outdoor water use practices during a drought. Next, the potential for substituting common amenities (irrigated landscapes and swimming pools) for private ones is investigated. Residential use was found to be sensitive to park proximity, greenness (proxied by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), size and presence of a park pool. Most small parks were net water savers; large parks offered the opportunity to substitute reclaimed water for potable supplies.The last study correlates long-term Landsat-based vegetation and water use trends and integrates these with a spatial analysis of kinetic temperatures. Findings indicate that despite reduced water use, Tucson became greener over the 1995 - 2008 period. This effect is attributed to a pulse of vegetation establishment in response to a shift in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) around 1976 and to irrigation prior to the study period. I conclude that although the coupled human-environment system of Tucson's municipal water supply and use practices is complex, there are scale-dependent competitive advantages to be gained through thoughtful modification of the built environment.

abstract: The dynamics of urban water use are characterized by spatial and temporal variability that is influenced by associated factors at different scales. Thus it is important to capture the relationship between urban water use and its determinants in a spatio-temporal framework in order to enhance understanding and management of urban water demand. This dissertation aims to contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal relationships between single-family residential (SFR) water use and its determinants in a desert city. The dissertation has three distinct papers to support this goal. In the first paper, I demonstrate that aggregated scale data can be reliably used to study the relationship between SFR water use and its determinants without leading to significant ecological fallacy. The usability of aggregated scale data facilitates scientific inquiry about SFR water use with more available aggregated scale data. The second paper advances understanding of the relationship between SFR water use and its associated factors by accounting for the spatial and temporal dependence in a panel data setting. The third paper of this dissertation studies the historical contingency, spatial heterogeneity, and spatial connectivity in the relationship of SFR water use and its determinants by comparing three different regression models. This dissertation demonstrates the importance and necessity of incorporating spatio-temporal components, such as scale, dependence, and heterogeneity, into SFR water use research. Spatial statistical models should be used to understand the effects of associated factors on water use and test the effectiveness of certain management policies since spatial effects probably will significantly influence the estimates if only non-spatial statistical models are used. Urban water demand management should pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity in predicting the future water demand to achieve more accurate estimates, and spatial statistical models provide a promising method to do this job. / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Sustainability 2013