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This study examines whether earnings guidance contributes to investor short-termism -- excessive focus on a firm's short term performance and insufficient consideration of its long-term value creation potential. Using an adaptation of Ohlson's (1995) valuation model, I find that investors place significantly higher (lower) weight on short-term (long-term) earnings of quarterly guidance firms than on the corresponding earnings of non-guidance firms. Further tests indicate that the differential weighting cannot be fully explained by measurement errors, earnings properties, risk, or accuracy of analysts' forecasts. For a sample of guidance initiating firms, I find no differential valuations of firm value components before the initiation of guidance, but large differential valuations after guidance initiation. In contrast, for guidance discontinuation firms, I find that investors shift their focus from short-term to long-term earnings after the discontinuation of guidance. Together, the results support critics' claim that quarterly guidance contributes to short-term fixation in the market. / text

財務報表在資本市場扮演何種角色是會計學者長久以來關注的焦點。Ohlson的研究將實證研究的重心從解釋股價的行為轉向至會計資訊與企業價值關聯的研究。本研究以美國市場為背景，加入分析師對盈餘預測因素，測試剩餘淨利模型實證上的有效性，並且用以檢視是否能以此模型建立超越大盤的投資組合。實證結果顯示發現分析師的盈餘預測作為其他資訊之代理變數以及分析師之長期成長預測捕捉企業未來成長潛質，有助於提升模型對股價的解釋能力。本研究認為成長機會對股價具有正向之影響，現時股價表現反映投資人對未來預期的結果。

Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-05T19:13:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 18 / Nenhuma / O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar possíveis determinantes do custo de capital implícito nas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, no período de 2001 a 2005. Primeiramente foi calculado o custo de capital implícito para cada empresa da amostra, procedendo-se após esta etapa, à escolha e à verificação dos possíveis determinantes (características de empresas) com poder de explicar esse custo de capital implícito. Define-se por custo de capital implícito, a taxa de retorno que faz os fluxos de caixas projetados igual ao valor corrente da ação. Para este cálculo foi utilizado o modelo de avaliação pelo lucro residual, também conhecido como modelo de Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) e a previsão dos lucros fornecida pelos analistas de mercado (I/B/E/S) como forma de estimar os fluxos de caixa projetados. Os determinantes constituem-se nas variáveis indicadas pela literatura financeira e que demonstraram relação explicativa com o custo de capital ou o retorno das ações. Foram selecionadas 15 variáveis, dividas em c / The purpose of this study was to identify the possible determining factors of the implied cost of capital in Brazilian listed companies from 2001-2005. First, the implied cost of capital for each company within the sample was calculated, after which the possible determining factors (company characteristics) with the predicting power to explain this implied cost of capital were selected. The implied cost of capital is defined as a return rate that makes discounted cash flow equal to the stock current value. For this calculation, the residual income model was used, also known as Edwards-Bell-Ohlson (EBO) model along with the earnings forecast given by market analysts (I/B/E/S) as a way to estimate the discounted cash flow. The determining factors are variables indicated by financial literature and demonstrate the explainable relationship with capital cost or the stocks return. Fifteen (15) variables were selected and then divided into five groups: volatility, leverage, information environment, earnings variabil

Zugleich: Diss. Regensburg, 2008. / Literaturverz.