The objective of this thesis is to update the Mori-Butterworth (2006) model of the krill-predator dynamics of the Antarctic ecosystem. Their analysis aimed to determine whether predator-prey interactions alone could broadly explain the observed population trends of the species considered in their model. In this thesis, the Antarctic ecosystem is outlined brie y and details are given of the main krill-eating predators including whales, seals, fish and penguins, together with an historical record of the human harvesting in the region. The abundances and per capita krill consumption of the krill-predators are calculated and used to determine the main krill-predators to be used in the updated model developed. These predators are found to be the blue, fin, humpback and minke whales and crabeater and Antarctic fur seals. The three main ship surveys (IDCR/SOWER, JARPA and JSV) used to estimate whale abundance, and the abundance estimation method itself (called distance sampling), are summarised. Updated estimates of abundance and trends are listed for the main krill-predators. Updated estimates for the biological parameters needed for the ecosystem model are also reported, and include some differences in approaches to those adopted for the Mori-Butterworth model. The background to the hypothesis of a krill-surplus during the mid-20th century is discussed as well as the effects of environmental change in the context of possible causes of the population changes of the main krill-feeding predators over the last century. Key features of the results of the updated model are the inclusion of a depensatory effect for Antarctic fur seals in the krill and predator dynamics, and the imposition of bounds on Ka (the carrying capacity of krill in Region a, in the absence of its predators); these lead to a better fit overall. A particular difference in results compared to those from the Mori-Butterworth model is more oscillatory behaviour in the trajectories for krill and some of its main predators. This likely results from the different approach to modelling natural mortality for krill and warrants further investigation. That may in turn resolve a key mismatch in the model which predicts minke oscillations in the Indo-Pacific region to be out of phase with results from a SCAA assessment of these whales. A number of other areas for suggested future research are listed. The updated model presented in this thesis requires further development before it might be considered sufficiently reliable for providing advice for the regulation and implementation of suitable conservation and harvesting strategies in the Antarctic.

Since the 1970s, various private and governmental agencies have conducted studies to assess potential unconventional gas resources, particularly those resources contained in tight sands, fractured shales, and coal beds. The US Geological Survey (USGS) has assessed the amount of unconventional gas resources in North America, and its estimates are used by other government agencies as the basis for their resource estimates. While the USGS employs a probabilistic methodology, it is apparent from the resulting narrow ranges that the methodology underestimates the uncertainty of these undiscovered, untested, potential resources, which in turn limits the reliability and usefulness of the assessments. The objective of this research is to develop an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources that better accounts for the uncertainty in these resources. This study investigates the causes of the narrow ranges generated by the USGS analyticprobabilistic methodology used to prepare the 1995 national oil and gas assessment and the 2000 NOGA series, and presents an improved methodology to assess potential unconventional gas resources. The new model improves upon the USGS method by using a stochastic approach, which includes correlation between the input variables and Monte Carlo simulation, representing a more versatile and robust methodology than the USGS analytic-probabilistic methodology. The improved methodology is applied to the assessment of potential unconventional gas resources in the Uinta-Piceance province of Utah and Colorado, and compared to results of the evaluation performed by the USGS in 2002. Comparison of the results validates the means and standard deviations produced by the USGS methodology, but shows that the probability distributions generated are rather different and, that the USGS distributions are not skewed to right, as expected for a natural resource. This study indicates that the unrealistic shape and width of the resulting USGS probability distributions are not caused by the analytic equations or lack of correlation between input parameters, but rather the use of narrow triangular probability distributions as input variables. Adoption of the improved methodology, along with a careful examination and revision of input probability distributions, will allow a more realistic assessment of the uncertainty surrounding potential unconventional gas resources.

Accurate interpretation of recent variability observed in fish populations, species compositions, distribution ranges or ecological indicators, depends on knowledge of their past dynamics and historical states. The onset of systematic fisheries data collection typically lagged decades or even centuries behind modern fishing exploits. As a consequence, pre-disturbed reference points and descriptions of subsequent change are rarely available. A remarkably detailed set of historical trawl survey data from South Africa provided such a rare opportunity. Government-funded exploration of the Agulhas Bank fishery potential resulted in meticulously-documented trawl survey data from 1897-1904, when prior human impacts on those resources were negligible. Although they used less effective technology, the information recorded and methods used were similar to modern surveys. This thesis investigated change in demersal fish fauna of the Agulhas Bank and documents comparisons between historical trawl surveys and modern re-enactments at the same locations. In comparing trawl survey catches over multiple decades or among different periods, unquantified changes in fishing power pose a key challenge. The shape, size, materials, mesh sizes and speed at which trawl nets are dragged, interact with the behaviour, size and shape of fish, influencing fishing performance. To accurately compare current catch rates with those of historical trawl surveys, the same trawl gear and methods were carefully replicated in repeat surveys at three sites. An investigation of literature and photographs of the original vessel and equipment were conducted to support the construction of a replica 'Granton' otter trawl net. The net was composed of Manila hemp with a headline length of 27 m (90 ft) and was attached to flat wooden trawl boards. The historical towing speed was estimated as 1.34 m s⁻¹ (2.6 knots). Three parts of the shallow Agulhas Bank that were surveyed 111 years prior, were re-surveyed in 2015. Species composition was contrasted between the historical and re-survey periods by way of unconstrained ordination, permutational multivariate analysis of variance and tests of the homogeneity of multivariate group dispersions. Taxa discerning between periods were identified with similarity percentage analyses. Changes of standardised catch between periods were tested for 27 taxa, using a non-parametric bootstrap approach. Proportions among size-classes, recorded for three taxa, were tested using Fisher's exact test. Results revealed a substantially transformed demersal catch assemblage, where the period effect explained almost half of the measured variance among samples. These changes included the disappearance or heavy depletion of kob (Argyrosomus spp., absent in re-surveys), panga (Pterogymnus laniarius; 2.4% of historical catch abundance) and east coast sole (Austroglossus pectoralis; 4.6% of historical catch abundance), which had jointly contributed 70-84% of historical catch composition. Average re-survey catches were largely made up of gurnards (Chelidonichthys spp.; 3 792% of historical abundance), horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus; 4 738% of historical abundance), spiny dogfish (Squalus spp.; 3 121% of historical abundance), hake (Merluccius capensis; 558% of historical abundance) and white sea catfish (Galeichthys feliceps; 13 863% of historical abundance). Analysis of available length information confirmed the expectation that fish sizes (specifically M. capensis and A. pectoralis) had declined. This implies that comparisons by weight would be more severe for declined abundances and less severe for those that increased, relative to contrasts of numerical abundance. Habitat preferences as well as geographic and depth distribution appeared to separate the taxa that increased from those that declined. These factors, together with reproductive and growth characteristics, as well as indirect trophic impacts, likely shaped the responses of demersal fauna to fishing and other human impacts during the 111 years between trawl surveys. An assessment of distribution changes of 44 common demersal taxa was undertaken. These analyses were restricted to the last 30 years of trawl survey data as the units and spatio-temporal resolution of prior data were incompatible. Standardised catches were used from annual spring and autumn south coast trawl surveys conducted by the government fisheries department. Geostatistical delta-generalised linear mixed models were used to predict species distribution functions, which were used to calculate annual estimates of latitude/longitude centres of gravity and effective areas occupied by each population. Average trends over the study period (1986-2016) were assessed using a Bayesian state-space model. Of nine species found to have a trend in average location, six moved westward or south-westward, while three moved eastward or north-eastward. Two species showed a trend of contracting spatial extent and one showed an expansion. Across the entire assemblage combined, there was a significant contraction in extent and a westward shift in average location. These assemblage-wide average trends are interpreted to be driven by climate forcing. Fishing impacts are expected to have contributed to the eastward movement in centre of gravity for kob, lesser sandshark (Rhinobatos annulatus) and white stumpnose (Rhabdosargus globiceps). Interpretation of these distribution shifts is hampered by a lack of knowledge on subsurface hydrographic trends on the Agulhas Bank, which is identified as a research priority. My research revealed substantial change in demersal fish communities on South Africa's Agulhas Bank and adds novel insight to the history underlying current states of demersal ecosystems. Valuable additions include a) documentation of the extent to which demersal assemblages have transformed during the last century at three representative inshore sites; b) estimates of current abundances relative to pre-disturbed baselines at those sites, which c) highlights drastic local depletion for certain taxa and d) reveals substantial abundance increases of certain species during the post-industrial fishing period; e) novel evidence of distribution trends in south coast demersal species; and f) identification of trends in the average distribution of the demersal fish assemblage, suspected to be climate-forced. Long-term comparisons, using minimally-disturbed baselines, revealed drastic transformation of the fish assemblage during a century of industrialisation, which points to trawling-induced alteration of benthic habitats and substantial changes in ecosystem structure. Besides the provision of novel historical context for current and future studies and decision-making, this work counters the erosive nature of shifting baselines in South Africa's marine environment.

An understanding of the population structure of commercially exploited species is essential for effective fisheries management. Fish stocks are typically identified based on the observation of differences in genetic and/or phenotypic characteristics between fish from discrete units. Recent deliberations on the management of the South African purse-seine sardine fishery recognises the likely existence of two stocks, one on the west and another on the south coasts, following studies that have documented spatial variability in several phenotypic characteristics of this species around South Africa. Those studies typically examined spatial variability in a single characteristic (e.g. gill raker morphology and meristics, body shape, otolith shape, vertebral count, parasite loads), but the application of multiple stock identification methods to the same individual fish has been recommended in order to maximize the likelihood of correctly inferring and identifying fish stocks. This study seeks to assess the population structure of South African sardine Sardinops sagax using a combination of stock identification methods including meristic, morphometric and parasite markers. Most of the sardine samples used in this study were obtained off the west and south coasts of South Africa during pelagic surveys conducted in 2013 and 2014 by Fisheries Branch of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, with some additional samples obtained from commercial fisheries. Fish caught from the west and south coasts are presumed to be part of the putative western and southern stocks respectively. The variables examined included body shape, gill arch length, gill raker spacing, number of gill rakers, otolith shape indices (otolith circularity and form factor), the number of vertebrae, and the abundance of a 'tetracotyle' type metacercarian parasite found in the eyes of sardine; these were first analysed individually and then collectively (excluding body shape data) in a multivariate analysis to test their effectiveness in discriminating between sardine from the putative western and southern sardine stocks. Analysis using geometric morphometrics revealed significant differences in body shape between sardine from the putative western and southern stocks. Results of GLM analyses indicated that gill arch length, the number of gill rakers, otolith form factor and circularity, and parasite abundance were effective univariate discriminators of sardine stocks. No significant difference in gill raker spacing and the number of vertebrae was found between individuals from the two stocks. A Stock Identification Index (SDI) of 0.75 derived from the univariate analyses, as well as results of the multivariate analysis of data provided strong evidence for the existence of two mixing stocks, therefore, supporting the two-stock hypothesis. The five multivariate classification models used in the study showed varying degree of allocation success. Overall classification accuracy ranged from a low 47% in the Linear Discriminant Analysis model to highs of 82% and 91% in the Classification Tree Analysis and Random Forest models, respectively. Both CTA and RF revealed the combination of variables with the strongest spatial discriminatory power to be the number of vertebrae and abundance of the 'tetracotyle' type metacercarian parasite. These results agree with those of previous studies and further support the inclusion of sardine population structure into management strategies for the purse-seine fishery for South African sardine. Given the importance of the 'tetracotyle' type metacercaria in the discrimination of South African western and southern sardine stocks, further studies were undertaken to identify and describe this parasite using light and scanning microscopy, as well as molecular tools. Such information will assist in the definitive identification of the first intermediate host of the parasite, presently hypothesized to be a sub-tidal gastropod occurring off the west coast only. Definitive identification of the first intermediate host (or hosts) will enable the full life cycle of this parasite to be determined and the parasite endemic area to be identified; a critical knowledge gap in application of the parasite biotag approach to stock discrimination using this 'tetracotyle' type metacercarian parasite. Metacercariae collected from fresh sardine sampled from a commercial landing in Gans Baai, South Africa, were manually excysted, relaxed in warm water, fixed in 70% ethanol and stained with haematoxylin for light microscopy. The metacercarial body is oval-shaped, measuring 762 - 967 x 512 - 677μm. It is divided by transverse folds into a forebody, midbody and hindbody. Diagnostic features include the unique, large excretory bladder lobes situated on the lateral sides of the body; two large pseudosuckers in the anterior part of the midbody; an acetabulum which is larger than the oral sucker; and a large lobulated holdfast organ in the posterior half of the midbody. These features are those of the metacercariae of the genus Cardiocephaloides, confirming the previous hypothesis regarding the genus of this digenean biotag. Analysis of partial 28S rDNA region sequence data showed that the metacercariae and the adult Cardiocephaloides found in the African penguin Spheniscus demersus are of the same species, likely C. physalis. This study is the first documentation of the morphological and molecular characterization of the stock-discriminating Cardiocephaloides metacercaria found in the eyes of Sardinops sagax in South Africa.

Before tidal stream energy is exploited, tidal power resource and environmental assessments must be undertaken. This thesis explores limits to power extraction for tidal sites defined by a strait between an island and landmass. Numerical simulations provided by Fluidity are used to analyse power extraction from locations in the strait and around the island for an idealised island-landmass domain and an actual coastal site. The numerical model is verified by comparing predictions with analytical solutions for inviscid flow past a circular cylinder located in the centre of a channel and in the vicinity of a wall. The model is then validated against laboratory measurements of flow patterns for impulsively-started flow past a submerged circular cylinder, and for flow past a surface-piercing circular cylinder in oscillatory laminar shallow flow. It is demonstrated that the numerical method captures satisfactorily the mechanisms of early wake formation, which indicates the model can be applied to assess tidal stream resource within the coastal geometries considered herein. Finally, the methodology to account for power extraction is satisfactorily verified for bounded and unbounded flows. Contrary to current practices, results from a parameter study for different idealised coastal sites reveal that the maximum power extracted in the strait is not well approximated by either the power extracted naturally at the seabed or the undisturbed kinetic power. Moreover, an analytical channel model underpredicts the maximum power extracted in the strait due to its inability to account for changes in the driving head resulting from power extraction and flow diversion offshore of the island. An exception is found for islands with large aspect ratios, with the larger dimension extending parallel to the landmass; i.e. the island-landmass geometry approaching that of a channel. In this case, the extracted power is satisfactorily approximated by the power naturally dissipated at the seabed and there is good agreement with the analytical model. The maximum power extracted in the strait is shown to decrease when water depths offshore are greater than in the strait, underlining the importance of fully understanding the wider bathymetry of a given site. A similar conclusion is reached when strait blockage is reduced. The power extraction in the strait is found to be sensitive to both viscosity and seabed friction, and these parameters need to be properly estimated during the setup and calibration of models in order to reduce uncertainty. Power extraction increases when turbines are sited simultaneously both in the strait and offshore. Tidal power assessment is performed for Rathlin Sound, off the coast of Northern Ireland. Again, no clear relationship is found between maximum power extracted in the strait and either the power dissipated naturally at the seabed or the undisturbed kinetic power. A similar ratio of power extracted to undisturbed kinetic power is obtained as for the equivalent idealised model. The analytical channel model underpredicts the maximum power extracted. The actual and idealised coastal site models indicate similar responses to changes in seabed friction, and similar reduction in power extraction with decreasing strait blockage.

A wind resource assessment of two sites in the Waterloo region, WRESTRC and RIM Park, was conducted using wind speed, wind direction, temperature and pressure data collected from meteorological towers for over two years. The study was undertaken as part of the W3 Wind Energy Project, and the equipment was purchased from NRG Systems and R. M. Young Company. The data was filtered to reduce the effect of icing and tower shadow, and was analyzed using MATLAB software. Based on the mean wind speeds, small wind turbines less than 50 kW in capacity would be appropriate at both sites. Wind speeds tended to be stronger during the winter than the summer, and during the afternoon than the rest of the day. Both sites also exhibited a strong dominant wind direction -- from the northwest. Due to the terrain, the wind shear and turbulence intensity at WRESTRC were moderate when the wind flowed from the dominant direction, but very high from other directions. The wind shear and turbulence intensity at RIM Park were consistently moderate in all directions. Although the terrain seems more complex at WRESTRC, the wind speed distribution and estimated annual energy production were higher at WRESTRC than at RIM Park, which indicates that it is a more viable site. The estimated capacity factors ranged from 9.4% to 22% depending on the hub height, which is not nearly high enough to suggest a commercial wind farm would be viable at either site. A small 5 kW to 15 kW wind turbine in the Waterloo region could offset the electricity usage of an average home. A two-parameter power law model of wind shear was explored and compared with the standard one-parameter model. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the two-parameter model did perform better. But in terms of accuracy of extrapolation, it was not conclusively better or worse than a one-parameter model forced through the known data point closest to the prediction height. The relationship between turbulence intensity and measurement interval was examined. Since atmospheric flow is unsteady, they are not independent. The perceived turbulence intensity was found to increase exponentially with time intervals under 24 hours. Two linear regression-based Measure-Correlate-Predict methods were evaluated using long-term data from a weather station also at WRESTRC. The ordinary least squares method was considered the baseline given its simplicity. The variance ratio method improved upon it by ensuring that the variance of the wind speed distribution at the target site was preserved.

A wind resource assessment of two sites in the Waterloo region, WRESTRC and RIM Park, was conducted using wind speed, wind direction, temperature and pressure data collected from meteorological towers for over two years. The study was undertaken as part of the W3 Wind Energy Project, and the equipment was purchased from NRG Systems and R. M. Young Company. The data was filtered to reduce the effect of icing and tower shadow, and was analyzed using MATLAB software. Based on the mean wind speeds, small wind turbines less than 50 kW in capacity would be appropriate at both sites. Wind speeds tended to be stronger during the winter than the summer, and during the afternoon than the rest of the day. Both sites also exhibited a strong dominant wind direction -- from the northwest. Due to the terrain, the wind shear and turbulence intensity at WRESTRC were moderate when the wind flowed from the dominant direction, but very high from other directions. The wind shear and turbulence intensity at RIM Park were consistently moderate in all directions. Although the terrain seems more complex at WRESTRC, the wind speed distribution and estimated annual energy production were higher at WRESTRC than at RIM Park, which indicates that it is a more viable site. The estimated capacity factors ranged from 9.4% to 22% depending on the hub height, which is not nearly high enough to suggest a commercial wind farm would be viable at either site. A small 5 kW to 15 kW wind turbine in the Waterloo region could offset the electricity usage of an average home. A two-parameter power law model of wind shear was explored and compared with the standard one-parameter model. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the two-parameter model did perform better. But in terms of accuracy of extrapolation, it was not conclusively better or worse than a one-parameter model forced through the known data point closest to the prediction height. The relationship between turbulence intensity and measurement interval was examined. Since atmospheric flow is unsteady, they are not independent. The perceived turbulence intensity was found to increase exponentially with time intervals under 24 hours. Two linear regression-based Measure-Correlate-Predict methods were evaluated using long-term data from a weather station also at WRESTRC. The ordinary least squares method was considered the baseline given its simplicity. The variance ratio method improved upon it by ensuring that the variance of the wind speed distribution at the target site was preserved.

The research conducted in this study sought to appraise and validate the IEC-TC-114 technical specification for wave energy resource assessment in terms of its methodologies, requirements, and sources of error. This assessment was conducted through the pilot application of the IEC-TS to a project site located on the west coast of Vancouver Island in British Columbia. The objectives of this research were to (1) establish a firm scientific rational for the technical specification, (2) suggest improvements for future iterations of the technical specification, (3) conduct a sensitivity analysis to determine sources or error and uncertainty within the specification, (4) develop a user guidance , and (5) to complete an assessment of the wave energy resource for all three classes of assessment at the pilot project site. At the time of this research there has been limited assessment and validation of the technical specification and its applicability to real world studies. This study is also limited in its scope to a singular site within Canada and so specific observations made may not be applicable to all locations. It was observed over the course of this study that the IEC-TS could be applied to the assessment of wave energy with reasonable computational effort. Additionally, the IEC-TS is overall relatively easy to understand and apply, with the only exception to this being the validation procedure which lacked clarity. However, it was noted that in many cases the IEC-TS would not provide defined requirements, but only recommendations which would allow researchers to potentially disregard the recommendations provided within. While this is likely due to the fact that different sites may have different requirements, it does call into question the need for a standard if it is not going to have strict requirements to ensure that all resource assessments are completed using state of the art knowledge and procedures.

To accommodate future power demands, wave energy converters will be deployed in arrays, but largely unanswered questions of the annual energy production and environmental impact of such installations present regulatory dilemmas. In recent years, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a modified version of the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model to simulate WEC energy extraction in a propagating wave field. This thesis presents a novel WEC meta-model that calculates the power intercepted by a WEC from the incident wave field. Two representations were developed with which a user could model a WEC’s impact on the incident waves in a spectral wave model. These alterations are based on power a WEC captures from the sea and power dissipated by hydrodynamic losses calculated in an external six degree of freedom (DOF) time domain WEC simulation. The two WEC meta-models were compared in terms of significant wave height reduction in the WEC’s lee and annual power production. The first WEC representation removes a constant percentage of power from each frequency bin while the second representation employs frequency dependent energy extraction. The representations were then applied in modelling a 54 MW WEC array off of Amphitrite Bank on the West Coast of Vancouver Island. Over the course of a year, the power captured by a farm when represented with a constant percentage extraction is reduced by 2.9% while a frequency dependent percentage extraction reduced the farm’s total captured power by 2.3% when compared to the reference case. Similarly small changes were observed in significant wave height reductions. The significant wave height in the lee of a farm was reduced by less than 2% for both representations at the shoreline, approximately six kilometres behind the farm. / Graduate / 0775, 0547, 0548 / eluczko91@gmail.com

Student Number : 0218517V - MSc dissertation - School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies - Faculty of Science / Rapid population growth, combined with an expanding economy and tourist industry has lead to a water resource crisis in the United Arab Emirates. The water crisis includes serious difficulties in meeting basic needs, particularly in the agricultural sector, which is a dominating water consumer in the country. All economic sectors are finding it increasingly difficult meeting their water needs, which is primarily manifested by the natural scarcity of water recourses, depletion of groundwater, low efficiency of water use and low coverage of water and sanitation services. This dissertation presents a vision for a comprehensive Earth Information System that goes beyond the limited collection of, say, meteorological data, but seeks to create a national database of past, present and future data of the many related earth system components of both natural and human origin, all of which play a role in defining the hydrologic cycle, and ultimately, the state of water resources. This system is being motivated by the fact that most of the water resource assessments in the UAE cannot take advantage of such datasets because the data are either not collected, too fragmented, or are not part of a national archive that is accessible to the research community and the general public. This system will be developed at the highest level of the national government, through the Office of His Highness the President and the office of the Department of Water Resource Studies which will seek to provide improved water resource assessment using modern database and analytical methods, that will support the development of better studies and new, modern institutional networks and authorities.