Climate and longleaf pine (Pinus palustris P. Mill.) radial growth relationships have been documented within its southern and western distribution. However, knowledge of this relationship is lacking along its northern latitudinal range margin (NLRM). Based on the principles of ecological amplitude, limiting factors, and studies of coniferous species in eastern temperate forests of the U.S., we hypothesized that the radial growth of longleaf pine in mixed pine-hardwood forests is responding to winter temperatures in southeastern Virginia. Two longleaf pine chronologies were developed to determine the relationship between radial growth and monthly temperature, precipitation, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) via response function analysis (RFA). Results at the 0.05 level yielded significant response function coefficients with a positive response to current winter temperature and precipitation and a negative response to prior August PDSI. In studies of climate and longleaf pine radial growth in other parts of its range, winter temperature and precipitation have not shared a significant positive association with radial growth. Instead current spring and summer precipitation usually share this positive association. These findings add more evidence to an emerging pattern suggesting that winter temperatures contribute to limiting the radial growth of temperate conifers at northern range margins in the Northern Hemisphere.

Although the primary purpose of response function analysis is to identify climate variables that have significant associations with tree radial growth, many researchers are also interested in assessing the strength of these associations. Existing response function programs use a liberal criterion to determine how many climate variables should be included in the analysis. The resulting response function models include a large number of predictor variables. The objective of this analysis is to determine if these response function models are over-fitted to the data used to calibrate them, resulting in over-estimation of strength of associations. PRECON was used to produce response functions for white oak chronologies from n = 149 sites, with separate response functions using 34 monthly climate variables or 10 seasonal climate variables. An analysis of goodness-of-fit statistics for response function calibration provided strong evidence of over-estimation of strength of associations. The degree of over-estimation was greater when 34 monthly climate variables were included in the models compared to models with10 season variables. There was much less evidence of over-fitting for the R-verif statistic that reflects strength of association between predicted and actual tree-ring indices that were not included in model calibration. The PRECON R-verif statistic is the best measure of the strength of multivariate growth-climate associations currently available.

South Florida slash pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) is the southernmost pine species in the United States and the foundation species of the globally endangered pine rockland communities in south Florida. To test if slash pine produces annual growth rings in the Lower Florida Keys, we counted the number of rings on samples collected from the North Big Pine Key site (NBP), which contained a fire scar from a known wildfire and a known date for hurricane-induced tree mortality (2006 or 2007). In addition, a crossdated tree-ring chronology (1871–2009) was developed from living trees and remnant wood found at the site and compared to divisional climate data to determine how the regional climate regime influences radial growth. Our analyses demonstrated that slash pine forms anatomically distinct, annual growth rings with the consistent year-to-year variability necessary for rigorous dendrochronological studies. Response-function and correlation analysis showed that annual growth of slash pine at NBP is primarily influenced by water availability during the growing season. However, no significant correlations were found between tree growth and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our study reveals the potential of producing high-quality dendrochronological data in southern Florida from slash pine, which should prove useful in further studies on fire history and tree phenology and for assessing the projected impacts of impending climate change on the fragile pine rockland community.

O conhecimento preciso do espectro energético de fótons é de extrema importância na radioterapia no que se refere à escolha adequada das doses a que os pacientes são submetidos. Os dados de saída dos detectores de radiação são apenas espectros de altura de pulso (PHD), ao invés de espectros de energia, que correspondem a informações distorcidas sobre a fonte e seus decaimentos devido a diversos erros associados ao processo de cintilação do cristal e à eletrônica. Os resultados medidos foram obtidos com o uso de um detector cintilador de NaI(Tl) e as simulações Monte Carlo foram feitas com o uso do programa EGSnrc. A partir das características do detector obtidas experimentalmente, nossas simulações puderam ser validadas para se aproximarem o mais próximo possível do caso real em laboratório. Dessas medidas experimentais de fontes radioativas de calibração e simulações, foi montada uma matriz resposta inversa que transforma PHD em espectro de energia de fótons. Uma vez que a faixa energética das fontes radioativas medidas teve um limite de 1.6MeV, a matriz resposta também o apresenta, mas que pode ser contornado de acordo com a geometria usada para a obtenção do PHD a ser corrigido. Observa-se que a resposta do detector é diretamente proporcional à energia e assim, dependendo da energia incidente a ser estudada, dois tipos de matriz resposta inversa podem ser aplicadas. Os resultados desta transformação de PHD para espectro de energia de fótons são apresentados. / The accurate knowledge of the photon energy spectrum in radiotherapy is of extremely importance when it comes to the appropriate choice for doses whose patients are submitted. The output data from the radiation detectors is described as pulse high distributions, instead of energy spectra, that correspond to distorted information about the source and its decays due to many errors associated to the crystal scintillation process and the electronics. The measured results were obtained with a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector and Monte Carlo simulations were performed by the EGSnrc program. From the detector characteristics obtained experimentally, the simulations were validated so they could approximate the more real as possible as in laboratory. Using these simulated and experimental calibration sources, an inverse response matrix was built and transforms pulse high distributions in photons energy spectrum. Once the correction energy limit due to the radiation sources used is approximately 1.6 MeV, so the response matrix has a limit, but it can be overcame by the beam incident angle and the geometry used when the pulse high distributions to be corrected is going to be measured. One can realize that the detector response is directly proportional to the incident energy and, when it is intense as in a LINAC or weak as in a calibration source, different types of matrix can be applied. The results from these transformations are presented.

AtravÃs da utilizaÃÃo de instrumentais estatÃsticos e economÃtricos para a anÃlise de sÃries temporais, buscou-se verificar as relaÃÃes entre as taxas de crescimento dos paÃses desenvolvidos e emergentes. Para tanto, utilizou-se de uma amostra contendo a taxa real de crescimento econÃmico desses paÃses no perÃodo de 1970-2007. Com base nesse estudo, verificou-se que existe causalidade, no sentido Granger, do crescimento econÃmico dos paÃses desenvolvidos em direÃÃo aos paÃses emergentes. A funÃÃo de resposta a impulsos mostrou que a resposta dos paÃses emergentes a choques no crescimento dos paÃses desenvolvidos foi a mais significativa e duradoura. / Through the use of statistical and econometric instrumentals for the analysis of time series, this work aims to verify the relationships between the economic growth rate of developed and emergent countries. For so much, it was used of a sample containing the real economic growth rate of those countries in the period of 1970-2007. With base in this study, it was verified that causality exists, in the sense of Granger, of the economic growth rate of the countries developed towards the emerging countries. The impulse response function showed that the answer of the emerging countries to impacts in the economic growth of the developed countries was the most significant and durable.

A osteoporose, doença caracterizada pela redução da massa óssea e deterioração da microestrutura óssea, atinge a população idosa e afeta centenas de milhões de pessoas em todo mundo. Por manifestar-se sem causar sintoma visível, o diagnóstico da doença ocorre, na maioria dos casos após lesão ou fratura do osso. Na tentativa de detectar os sinais iniciais da doença, utilizam-se diferentes métodos de avaliação da qualidade óssea baseados na medida da densidade e da arquitetura óssea. Atualmente existe um grande interesse em estabelecer uma correlação entre as medidas de qualidade óssea com as propriedades mecânicas de resistência do osso. Uma estratégia para caracterizar o comportamento mecânico do osso consiste em obter as propriedades da macroestrutura óssea a partir das propriedades da sua microestrutura. Cowin (1985) propõe um modelo mecânico para materiais porosos elástico-lineares supondo que a função resposta mecânica do meio poroso elástico sob deformações infinitesimais é uma função isotrópica do tensor deformação infinitesimal, da fração volumétrica e do tensor textura que caracteriza a simetria do arranjo geométrico do meio poroso. Ao obter uma relação entre as componentes do tensor de elasticidade, as componentes do tensor textura e a fração volumétrica do meio poroso, o autor observa que o tensor de elasticidade obtido não fornece todos os tipos possíveis de simetria do material poroso, restringindo-se apenas à ortotropia e seus casos particulares, tais como a isotropia e a isotropia transversal. O tensor de elasticidade obtido por Cowin (1985) não descreve o comportamento local do meio poroso, pois depende explicitamente das componentes do tensor textura, o qual representa uma medida não local. Esta dissertação tem por objetivo estudar e analisar o modelo proposto por Cowin (1985). Propõe-se neste trabalho uma formulação para a função resposta de materiais porosos elástico-lineares para deformações infinitesimais que descreva o comportamento local do meio poroso. / Osteoporosis, a disease characterized by the reduction of bone mass and deterioration of bone microstructure deterioration, affects the elderly population and hundreds of millions of people worldwide. As a silent disease, its diagnosis occurs, in most cases, after injury, or, bone fracture. In an attempt to detect early signs of the disease, different methods of diagnostic imaging to obtain measures of density and bone architecture are used. Currently, there is great interest in establishing a correlation between the measurements of bone quality with the mechanical properties of bone strength. One strategy to characterize the mechanical behavior of bones is to obtain the properties of its macrostructure from the properties of its microstructure. Cowin (1985) proposes a mechanical model for porous materials by assuming that the mechanical response function of the material under infinitesimal deformation is a function of the infinitesimal deformation tensor, the volume fraction, and the texture tensor that characterizes the symmetry of the geometrical arrangement of the porous medium. By obtaining a relationship between the components of the elasticity tensor, the components of the texture tensor and the volume fraction of the porous medium, the author notes that resulting the elasticity tensor does not yield all possible types of symmetry of the porous material, being restricted to orthotropy and its particular cases, such as the isotropic and transverse isotropy. The elasticity tensor obtained by Cowin (1985) does not describe the local behavior of porous media, and depends explicitly on the fabric tensor components, which represent a non local measure. This dissertation aims to study and analyze the model proposed by Cowin (1985). A formulation for the response function of linear elastic porous materials under infinitesimal deformation that describes the local behavior of the porous medium is also proposed.

O Laboratório do Acelerador Linear do Instituto de Física da Universidade de São Paulo está desenvolvendo um estudo sobre a eficiência e a função resposta de detetores de HPGe a fótons de alta energia. Neste trabalho foi estudada a função resposta de fótons provenientes da reação 19F(p,alfa gama)16O. Na reação podem ser observados os fótons característicos de 6,1 MeV, 6,9 MeV e 7,1 MeV. Fótons com esta energia possuem um grande potencial para várias aplicações importantes, como \"Proton Induced Gamma-ray Emission\" (PIGE), gamagrafia e procedimentos de calibração. No caso de procedimentos de calibração essa reação possui um diferencial: o fluxo de fótons observado é bem maior do que em outras reações estudadas, tais como 27Al (p, gama)28Si e 23Na(p, gama)24Mg. Os experimentos foram realizados no Laboratório de Análise de Materiais por Feixes Iônicos (LAMFI) do IFUSP, utilizando um acelerador eletrostático tipo \"Pelletron-tandem\" de 1,7 MV de tensão máxima no terminal. O detetor estudado foi um HPGe do tipo coaxial \"reverse-electrode closed-end\" com 72,5 mm de diâmetro e 60,5 mm de comprimento e 60% da eficiência de um detetor de NaI para fótons de 1,332 MeV. O detetor foi posicionado a 0 grau em relação à linha de feixe. A corrente de prótons na irradiação era da ordem de 50 nA e a energia dos prótons variou entre 1,36 MeV e 1,42 MeV. O alvo utilizado consistia em 250 micro g/cm^2 de CaF2 evaporado em um suporte de Ta. Os picos dos três fótons da reação 19F(p,alfa gama)16O apresentaram deformações devido à emissão em vôo dos fótons. Essas deformações apresentam variações em função da energia dos prótons. Com o objetivo de descrever as formas dos picos foi desenvolvido um programa que utiliza a técnica de Monte Carlo para simulá-las. Os dados sobre \"yields\" relativos dos fótons e seção de choque da reação 19F(p,alfa gama)16O encontrados na literatura são imprecisos e contraditórios. Então, como parte dos resultados deste trabalho, foram obtidos os \"yields\" relativos dos fótons da reação 19F(p,alfa gama)16O para energias de prótons entre 1,360 MeV e 1,420 MeV. A função resposta do detetor para as diferentes formas dos picos foram obtidas através de simulações com o programa MCNP5. Para estas simulações foi feita uma descrição detalhada da geometria interna do detetor, obtida por meio de radiografias do mesmo. As intensidades relativas dos fótons da reação 19F(p,alfa gama)16O em função da energia dos prótons puderam ser obtidas através de um ajuste por mínimos quadrados das funções respostas simuladas aos espectros experimentais de altura de pulso. / In the 19F(p, alpha gamma)16O reaction, characteristic gamma-rays with energies: 6.1 MeV; 6.9 MeV and 7.1 keV can be observed. These photons can be used in many important applications such as Proton Induced Gamma-ray Emission (PIGE), gamma radiography and calibration purposes. It has another advantage in calibration procedures, which is the observed photon flux is greater than other reactions studied, 27Al(p, gamma)28Si and 23Na(p, gamma)24Mg. In our laboratory, we are studying the efficiency and response function of HPGe detectors for high energy photons, and for this it is necessary a source with a level scheme with a few gamma-ray transitions and known relative yields. The 19F(p, alpha gamma)16O reaction satisfies the first condition but in the literature we found relative yields for thick targets or reaction cross section for thin targets. However, we use targets of intermediate thickness, therefore in this work we measure the relative gamma-ray yields for protons with energies between 1.36 MeV and 1.42 MeV. The experiments were performed at the 1.7 MV Pelletron tandem accelerator of the Laboratório de Análise de Materiais por Feixes Iônicos (LAMFI) located at Instituto de Física da Universidade de São Paulo, using a reverse-electrode closed-end coaxial HPGe detector with 72.5 mm in diameter and 60.5 mm in length, at 0 degree. The proton irradiation current was 50 nA, and the target consisted of 250 micro g/cm^2 CaF2 evaporated on a 0.1 mm Ta backing. In this reaction the 20Ne resonant state fissions in flight, and the resulting 16O excited states have different half-lives; all observed peaks are deformed due to either Doppler broadening from 16O random velocity direction or Doppler shift from nuclei that leave the target toward the vacuum chamber. Moreover, the peak deformations vary with the proton energy. These deformations were modeled by a Monte Carlo simulation that follows the oxygen nuclei in its trajectory until photon emission, considering the changes in spatial distribution of the exact interaction point in the target with incident proton energy due to the large resonance width and proton energy loss, and 16O energy loss and multiple scattering until decay, in the different target layers. Using the detector response functions calculated by MCNP5 simulations, the relative intensities of the three gamma rays were obtained by a least square fit of the response functions, taking into account the Doppler broadening and shift for each gamma ray, to the data in the experimental pulse-height spectrum.

In 2005 the highest global surface temperature ever was recorded. A virtual consensus exists today among scientists that global warming is underway and that human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a significant cause. Possible mitigation of climate change through reduction of net GHG emissions has become a worldwide concern. Under the United Nation’s Framework convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol was formed in 1997 and required ratifying countries to co-operate in stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations. The protocol took effect on February 16, 2005. The mitigation cost for reducing GHG emissions for the US economy has been argued to be high particularly through the energy sector. Agriculture and Forestry (AF) can provide some low cost strategies to help with this mitigation principally through carbon sequestration but must be competitive with mitigation costs in the rest of the economy. A general equilibrium approach is used herein to evaluate the role of AF mitigation in an economy wide setting. The results show that the AF sectors have significant mitigation potential. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare. AF mitigation increases as the carbon price increase over time. In the earlier periods, while the carbon price is low, AF emissions and sink are quite small compared to the energy sector. As carbon prices increase over time, the AF sectors mitigate about 25% of the net emissions. This verifies McCarl et al's (2001) argument that the AF sectors “may be very important in a world that requires time and technological investment to develop low-cost greenhouse gas emission offsets.” AF GHG emission mitigation is sensitive to saturation of sequestration sinks. This research finds that ignoring saturation characteristics leads to a severe overestimate of mitigation potential with estimates being inflated by as much as a factor of 6.

This paper analyzes empirically the effect of crude oil price change on the economic growth of Indian-Subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). We use a multivariate Vector Autoregressive analysis followed by Wald Granger causality test and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Wald Granger causality test results show that only India’s economic growth is significantly affected when crude oil price decreases. Impact of crude oil price increase is insignificantly negative for all three countries during first year. In second year, impact is negative but smaller than first year for India, negative but larger for Bangladesh and positive for Pakistan.

This study discusses the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the different channels. The analysis is conducted using generalized impulse response functions derived from a factor-augmented vector error correction (FAVECM) model. The FAVECM methodology as developed by Lee (2009) extends the factoraugmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model to analyze long-run and shortrun dynamics of non-stationary variables. This recenly derived FAVECM model combines the advantages of factor model and the VECM model. The estimations are conducted using 174 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 2000 to September 2009. Results indicate that interbank call loan rate, deposit rate and prime lending rate are conintegrated, which provides sufficient evidence of the existence of the credit channel in monetary transmission system. Other GIRF results are generally consistent of the expected monetary policy effectiveness.