Bakgrund och Problem: Aktiemarknaden påverkas både av inhemska och utländska faktorer. Därför är det av intresse att se vilka makroekonomiska variabler som påverkar den svenska aktiemarknaden. Anledningen till att Sverige har valts som den geografiska punkten är att det är av intresse att se hur ett litet land som Sverige, som har en öppen ekonomi påverkas av de utvalda makroekonomiska variablerna. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att med hjälp av information samt analys, studera hur de olika makroekonomiska variablerna påverkar den inhemska aktiemarknaden. Olika faktorer som påverkar aktiemarknaden kommer att lyftas fram för att i sin tur även se till de olika branscherna. Metod: Då data enbart består av hämtning av tidigare information fokuseras det enbart på sekundärdata i form av historiska siffror samt historiska undersökningar. De statistiska tester som tillämpas är Granger Causality test, Johansens Cointegration test, Impulse Response Function test, ADF test, KPSS test, Mulitpel regression. Slutsats: Med de resultat som presenterades i denna studie, skulle vi nog inte kunna säga att vi har ett svar över vilka aktier en investerare ska införskaffa. Dock skulle vi kunna poängtera att den potentiella investeraren bör ha dessa variabler i beaktning vid beslut. Genom att studera dessa variabler kan man få en känsla om vilket håll variablerna kommer att röra sig och på så sätt säga att de kan påverka aktieindexen. Att bara kolla på de makroekonomiska variabler som denna studie belyser räcker inte för att förstå hur aktieindex kommer att se ut i framtiden, men det är en bit på vägen till att förstå aktiemarknadens rörelse.

This study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variables of stock returns and institutional investors' buy-sell difference in Taiwan's stock market for the sample periods from Jan., 2000 through May, 2009. Some econometrical methodologies are used in this study, such as unit test, vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function. The major empirical results are shown as follows: 1. Cointegration test For the sample periods, one long-term equilibrium relationship is found from the Johansen's cointegration test, significantly with 5% confidence level between stock year returns and the buy-sell difference for the foreign investment institutions, the domestic investment institutions, and the dealers. The long-term equilibrium relationship is Ry=1.65*QFII+4.28*FUND+35.22*DLR-1142.6. 2. VECM estimation (1)With the vector error correction model (VECM) being applied to the sample periods, the findings indicate that the changes of stock returns are not influenced among the short-term dynamic relationships by the changes of institutional investors' buy-sell difference, but only affected by one-period-lag of itself. (2) Among the short-term dynamic relationships, the changes of foreign investment institutions' buy-sell difference are affected by one-period-lag of institutional investors that positively affected by one-period-lag of the dealers, and inversely affected by one-period-lag of itself and one-period-lag of the domestic investment institutions. However, it is positively affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which indicates foreign investment institutions follow positive feedback trading strategies. (3)The changes of the domestic investment institutions' buy-sell difference are only affected by one-period-lag of itself among the short-term dynamic relationships. (4)The changes of the dealers' buy-sell difference are positively affected among the short-term dynamic relationships by one-period-lag of the foreign investment institutions. As for the long-term relationships, it is affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which also indicates the dealers follow positive feedback trading strategies. (5)The foreign investment institutions and the dealers have the mutual feedback relationship.

Vibration generated from various sources (engine, road surface, tires, exhaust, etc.) should be considered in the design of a car body. These vibrations travel through transfer systems (drivetrain, suspension, body, etc.) to the steering wheel, seats and other areas where it is detected by the passengers of the vehicle. Transmission routes must be studied and efforts made to keep transfer systems from amplifying vibration and to absorb it instead. Since the superior vibration transfer system is the car body, finite element analysis and experimental vibration analysis are performed on car body-in-white. Body vibration analysis entails understanding and improving the body&rsquo / s dynamic characteristics that act as vibration transfer channels. In the previous study, a finite element model has been created for a car body-in-white available in Automotive Laboratory (Mechanical Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara) and its natural frequencies and mode shapes have been determined using finite element analysis software. In this study, vibration tests have been performed on actual car body-in-white. Frequency response functions between 34 response locations and force application point have been measured. Using these frequency response functions, natural frequencies and mode shapes of the body-in-white have been determined. Finite element analysis and experimental results have been compared to evaluate the finite element model reliability.

Determinar as forças que estão agindo em um dado sistema é uma questão frequente em dinâmica estrutural, de modo que a reconstrução ou a identificação de carregamento se torna um importante problema de engenharia. Quando um sistema é exposto a um carregamento desconhecido e/ou não se é possível medir diretamente a força atuante nesse sistema, se torna necessária a utilização de métodos inversos. Esta metodologia consiste essencialmente na aplicação de cargas dinâmicas pontuais nos modelos de estudo e posterior recuperação de estimativas dessas cargas nos pontos de interesse. Na prática, há situações em que o número de pontos de interesse diferem do número de pontos testados, sendo assim, a matriz da função de resposta de freqüência (FRF) do sistema resulta retangular, fazendo-se necessário o uso da pseudo-inversa de Moore-Penrose. No presente trabalho, essa metodologia é aplicada a modelos númericos a fim de testar sua eficácia. Os resultados dos processos de reconstrução de carregamento dinâmico utilizando a presente metodologia foram obtidos a partir de aplicações analíticas e numéricas. Além disso, diretrizes para utilização da pseudo-inversa de Moore-Penrose na reconstrução de carregamento dinâmico são apresentadas ao final deste trabalho. / Determining the forces acting on a given system is a frequent issue in structural dynamics, so that load reconstruction or load identification becomes an important engineering problem. When a system is exposed to an unknown load and/or if it is not possible to directly measure the force acting on that system, it is necessary to use inverse methods. This methodology consists essentially in the application of punctuals dynamics load in the study models and later recovery of estimates of these loads at points of interest. In practice, there are situations where the number of points of interest differ from the number of points tested, so the matrix of the frequency response function (FRF) of the system is rectangular, making it necessary to use the pseudo-inverse of Moore-Penrose. In the present work, this methodology is applied to numerical models in order to test their effectiveness. The results of the dynamic load reconstruction processes using the present methodology were obtained from analytical and numerical applications. In addition, guidelines for using Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse in the dynamic load reconstruction are presented at the end of this work.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:59:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1565570 bytes, checksum: 641bee91a3e1ec7240272fff8310ca82 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-11-30 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / In this work it is discussed the improvement in the modal test for obtaining the Frequency Response Function (FRF) in low natural frequency structures by using as exciter an instrumented hammer. There are two conflicting needs in this kind of test: on the one hand, the low natural frequencies of the structure, which are usually associated with low damping, demand long acquisition time so that good resolution in the spectrum may exist. On the other hand, the sampling rate must be increased to correctly catch the short duration signal of the hammer. This leads to an elevated number of points in the signal to be acquired, and there may eventually be limitation on such number of points when using spectrum analyzers in the acquisition and obtaining of the FRFs. Thus, in this work, the selective decimation technique explored for the improvement of the test. The work includes the construction of a prototype with two degrees of freedom (S2GL) to serve as case study for the tests enabling the theoretical and experimental Frequency Response Functions (FRF) to be compared, as well as adjusting the parameters of the model. The MATLAB programming language was used for obtaining the FRFs. The efficiency of the improvement applied was verified through the frequency spectra, in which it was observed significant resemblance between the non-decimated FRF with the acquisition having a high number of points, and the decimated FRF with smaller number of points and selected so that it could preserve the correct detection of the hammer signal. / Neste trabalho discute-se o aprimoramento do teste modal para obtenção da Função Resposta em Freqüência (FRF) em estruturas de baixas freqüências naturais utilizando como excitador um martelo instrumentado. Há duas necessidades conflitantes neste tipo de teste: de um lado, as baixas freqüências naturais da estrutura, usualmente associadas com baixo amortecimento, requerem um tempo longo de aquisição para haver boa resolução no espectro. Por outro lado, a taxa de amostragem deve ser elevada para captar corretamente o sinal de curta duração do martelo. Isto leva a um número elevado de pontos no sinal a ser adquirido, havendo eventualmente limitação de tal número de pontos ao se utilizar analisadores de espectro na aquisição e obtenção das FRFs. Neste sentido, neste trabalho foi explorada a técnica de decimação seletiva para aprimoramento do teste. O trabalho inclui a construção de um protótipo com dois Graus de Liberdade (S2GL) para servir como objeto de estudo para os testes deste aprimoramento, permitindo assim, comparar as Funções Resposta em Freqüências (FRF) teóricas e experimentais, bem como ajustar os parâmetros do modelo. Utilizou-se da linguagem de programação MATLAB® para a obtenção das FRFs. A eficiência do aprimoramento empregado foi verificada através dos espectros de freqüência, onde observou-se uma significativa similaridade entre a FRF não decimada com a aquisição possuindo um número elevado de pontos e a FRF decimada com menor número de pontos e selecionada de modo a preservar a correta detecção do sinal do martelo.

Determinar as forças que estão agindo em um dado sistema é uma questão frequente em dinâmica estrutural, de modo que a reconstrução ou a identificação de carregamento se torna um importante problema de engenharia. Quando um sistema é exposto a um carregamento desconhecido e/ou não se é possível medir diretamente a força atuante nesse sistema, se torna necessária a utilização de métodos inversos. Esta metodologia consiste essencialmente na aplicação de cargas dinâmicas pontuais nos modelos de estudo e posterior recuperação de estimativas dessas cargas nos pontos de interesse. Na prática, há situações em que o número de pontos de interesse diferem do número de pontos testados, sendo assim, a matriz da função de resposta de freqüência (FRF) do sistema resulta retangular, fazendo-se necessário o uso da pseudo-inversa de Moore-Penrose. No presente trabalho, essa metodologia é aplicada a modelos númericos a fim de testar sua eficácia. Os resultados dos processos de reconstrução de carregamento dinâmico utilizando a presente metodologia foram obtidos a partir de aplicações analíticas e numéricas. Além disso, diretrizes para utilização da pseudo-inversa de Moore-Penrose na reconstrução de carregamento dinâmico são apresentadas ao final deste trabalho. / Determining the forces acting on a given system is a frequent issue in structural dynamics, so that load reconstruction or load identification becomes an important engineering problem. When a system is exposed to an unknown load and/or if it is not possible to directly measure the force acting on that system, it is necessary to use inverse methods. This methodology consists essentially in the application of punctuals dynamics load in the study models and later recovery of estimates of these loads at points of interest. In practice, there are situations where the number of points of interest differ from the number of points tested, so the matrix of the frequency response function (FRF) of the system is rectangular, making it necessary to use the pseudo-inverse of Moore-Penrose. In the present work, this methodology is applied to numerical models in order to test their effectiveness. The results of the dynamic load reconstruction processes using the present methodology were obtained from analytical and numerical applications. In addition, guidelines for using Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse in the dynamic load reconstruction are presented at the end of this work.

The aim of this work is understand how the Exchange rate volatility affects the cearensesâs exports. Many researchers have appointed that an increase in the exchange rate volatility generate risk factors on trade. Therefore, understand the relationship between volatility and trade is fundamental to forecast better the behavior of trade under instabilities of the exchange markets, as the recent international crisis. The period of analysis is from 2002 to 2011 and the data has monthly frequency. Two methodologies are used to investigate this relationship: short run, through impulse response function, obtained from a VEC; long run, through the Johansen cointegration test. The results showed that the exchange volatility reduces the exports of CearÃ. / O objetivo deste trabalho à entender como a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio afeta as exportaÃÃes cearenses. Diversos autores tÃm apontado que uma volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio mais elevada pode estar associada a fatores de risco de exportaÃÃo e importaÃÃo. Dessa forma, entender o relacionamento entre esses componentes à fundamental para aumentar o poder de previsibilidade, especialmente, em perÃodos de instabilidade econÃmica, em que a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio tende a ser maior. Nesse trabalho, utilizou-se de dados com frequÃncia mensal entre 2002 a 2012. Duas anÃlises foram feitas: uma de curto prazo, atravÃs da abordagem de funÃÃes impulso resposta obtidas a partir de um VEC e outra de longo prazo atravÃs do teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen (1991). Dos resultados encontrados, verificou-se que a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio tem efeito sobre as exportaÃÃes cearenses tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. Ambos, longo e curto prazo, a volatilidade da taxa de cambio reduz o quantum exportado, indicando que tal volatilidade pode ser interpretada como risco associado as exportaÃÃes.

A Função Resposta (FR) foi obtida para os detectores semicondutores Ge e Si(Li) usando o método semiempírico. A FR foi calculada para cinco detectores, 4 de HpGe, de volumes ativos 89 cm3, 50 cm3, 8 cm3 e 5 cm3, e um detector de Si(Li) de 0,143 cm3 de volume ativo. O intervalo de energia estudado dói de 6 keV até 1,5 MeV. Dois tipos de estudos foram realizados neste trabalho. O primeiro estudo foi a dependência da FR com a geometria de detecção. Este estudo envolveu o cálculo da FR para uma geometria denominada simples e a extrapolação da FR calculada. A extração da FR foi realizada para analisar tanto espectros obtidos com uma geometria com blindagem, como espectros onde a distância fonte-detector foi modificada. O segundo estudo foi a dependência da FR com a eletrônica de detecção. Este estudo foi realizado variando-se o tempo de formação de pulso na eletrônica de detecção. O objetivo foi a de verificar a existência ou ausência do efeito do déficit balístico na resolução do detector. Este efeito não foi observado. As componentes da FR que descrevem a região de absorção total da energia dos fótons incidentes, bem como as componentes que descrevem a absorção parcial dessa energia foram estudadas. Particularmente, neste trabalho, foram propostas funções empíricas tanto para o tratamento do espalhamento Compton múltiplo originado no próprio detector (cristal), como para o espalhamento de fótons originado nas vizinhanças do cristal. Um estudo através de simulações via Monte Carlo foi também realizado, para a compreensão das estruturas de espalhamento de fótons produzidas numa blindagem de ferro. Uma proposta de deconvolução de espectros envolvendo radiação espalhada foi estudada, para fins de cálculo da dose depositada no material espalhador. / The Response Function (RF) for Ge and Si(Li) semiconductor detectors was obtained. The RF was calculated for Five detectors, four HpGe with active volumes of 89 cm3, 50 cm3, 8 cm3 and 5 cm3, and one Si(Li) with 0,143 cm3 of active volume. The intervalo f energy studied ranger from 6 keV up to 1,5 MeV. Two kinds of studies were done in this work. The first one was the RF dependence with the detection geometry. Here the calculation of the RF for a geometry named as simple and na extrapolation of that RF, were both done. The extrapolation peocess analyzed both, spectra obtained with a shielding geometry and spectra where the source-detector distance was modified. The second one was the RF dependence with the detection electronics. The purpose was to verify the effect of the ballistic déficit in the resolution of the detector. This effect was not observed. The RF component that describe the region of the total absorption of the energy of the incident phtons, and the partial absorption of this energy, were both treated. In particular, empirical functions were proposed for the treatment of both, the multiple scattering originated in the detector (crystal), and the phton scattering originated in materials of the neighborhood of the crytal. Another study involving Monte Carlo simulations was also done in order to comprehend the photon scattering strutures produced in na iron shield. A deconvolution method is suggested, for spectra related to scattered radition in order to assess the dose delivered to the scattered.

In this thesis, three improved analysis techniques for scatterometer wind estimation are presented. These techniques build upon previous methods that help validate scatterometer data. This thesis examines the theory connecting the 1D and 2D kinetic energy spectra and uses QuikSCAT data to measure the 2D kinetic energy spectrum of ocean winds. The measured 2D kinetic energy spectrum is compared to the traditional 1D kinetic energy spectrum. The relationship between the 2D kinetic energy spectra and the 1D kinetic energy spectra confirms findings from previous studies that ocean winds modeled in 2D are isotropic and nondivergent. The 1D and 2D kinetic energy spectra also confirm the known conclusion that the zonal and meridional components of ocean winds are uncorrelated. Through simulation, the wind response function (WRF) is calculated for three different QuikSCAT processing algorithms. The WRF quantifies the contribution that the wind at each point of the surface makes to a given wind estimate. The spatial resolution of the different processing algorithms is estimated by their WRFs. The WRFs imply that the spatial resolution of ultrahigh resolution (UHR) processing is finer than the spatial resolution of conventional drop-in-the-bucket (DIB) processing; the spatial resolution of UHR processing is ~5-10 km while the spatial resolution of DIB slice processing is ~12-15 km and the spatial resolution of coarse resolution DIB egg processing is ~30 km. Simulation is used to analyze the effectiveness of various wind retrieval and ambiguity selection algorithms. To assist in the simulation, synthetic wind fields are created through extrapolating the 2D Fourier transform of a numerical weather prediction wind field. These synthetic wind fields are sufficiently realistic to evaluate ambiguity selection algorithms. The simulation employs the synthetic wind fields to compare wind estimation with and without direction interval retrieval (DIR) applied. Both UHR and DIB wind estimation processes are performed in the simulation and UHR winds are shown to resolve finer resolution wind features than DIB winds at the cost of being slightly noisier. DIR added to standard QuikSCAT UHR wind estimation drops the wind direction root-mean-squared error by ~10° to ~24.74° in the swath sweet spot.

This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria’s output performance for the period 1981 – 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria’s output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria’s output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some viable information in explaining the variabilities in Nigeria’s output performance over the horizon. The comparison between the results of the VECM and the unrestricted VAR shows that the unrestricted VAR model outperformed the VECM. The overall result of the study confirms the view about the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to external shocks. These shocks explain more than half of the variance in real output performance and have varying effects on output performance in Nigeria. The dynamic response of output performance to each of the defined shock variables show that output performance responds rapidly to the shock variables, while its response to the domestic economic variables is seemingly moderate. Finally, the variance decomposition show that international crude oil price and terms of trade have the largest share in accounting for the variability in output performance, followed closely by the shares of capital inflows and monetary policy.