Abstract With the processing of globalization and the large increases in international trade and openness, it is important to capture the business cycle correlation with the intimate countries for government to make better policies and keep the economy steady. This study investigated the changes in relationships between the G7 business cycle after the European integration. Choosing 1993 the Europe Union (EU) commencement as the segment, we separated the sample period into 1965:1-1992:4 and 1993:1-2006:4.We adopted kinds of unit root tests to exam if these variables were stationary and the Johansen co-integration analysis to test whether the stationary long-run equilibrium exist or not. With the consideration of long run information, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied to study the relationship between the business cycles of United State, EU and the other G7 countries. By Johansen co-integration analysis, we found that the stationary long-run relationship did exist between their industrial productions¡]IP¡^. In addition, the VECM evidence supported the emergence of two cyclically coherent groups -- the Euro-zone and the English-speaking countries -- after the EU commencement in 1993. In conclusion, with the greater correlation of business cycles, the party in office should take account of the business cycle movement of the closed countries more deliberately in this regionalization era.

The purpose of this essay is to answer the following questions: Has the increased e-commerce had a negative impact on the inflation, and is the effect decreasing? and: Is there a long term and/or short term effect by the increased e-commerce on the inflation? To answer the first question a fixed effects regression model is applied, based on panel data for 28 European countries for the time period 2006-2017. The regression obtains results that support the hypothesis that the increased e-commerce has had a negative effect on inflation. Furthermore, the result indicates that the effect is decreasing. The second question is answered with the help of an Error Correction Model and time series data for Sweden during the period 2006-2017. The result shows that there is an error correction towards a long run equilibrium and the short term estimates indicate that there is a negative short term effect of the increased e-commerce on inflation. These results are in line with the hypothesis of this essay as well as previous studies that have examined similar questions.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.

PhD (Advanced Nursing Science) / Department of Advanced Nursing Science / Cervical cancer may be preventable when screening services which detect cancerous cells at an early stage are utilized. Utilization of cervical cancer screening services, taking of Pap smear in particular, is effective if done systematically, that is, yearly or every ten years depending on whether the individual is at risk or not. Failure to utilize cervical cancer screening services predisposes women to cervical cancer because if one is affected, the disease will progress without one being aware. Studies have been carried out in this area, but not much has been done on strategies to promote the utilization of cervical cancer screening services. Purpose The purpose of this study was to develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Objective The specific objectives were to explore and describe the provision of cervical cancer screening services by Primary Health Care Nurses (PHCNs); assess the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical cancer screening services; develop an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services and to validate an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services at Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa. Methodology The research was conducted in three phases. In Phase I, qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. The qualitative approach was used to explore experiences of nurses concerning the provision of cervical cancer screening services and the quantitative approach applied for assessment of the awareness of women on the utilization of cervical screening services. The population in the qualitative approach were PHCNs providing cervical cancer services and, in the quantitative approach, were women aged 20-59. Nonprobability purposive sampling was used to sample 15 PHCNs and 500 women. Ethical considerations, that is, the rights of all the stakeholders were honoured. Data was collected from PHCNs through semi-structured interviews using an interview guide and from women through questionnaires. Reliability and validity of the research was ensured. Qualitative data was analyzed through open-coding and quantitative data through descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages). ABSTRACT vi Results In Phase II, an intervention strategy to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa was developed. The Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis was used to analyze the validity. Political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental factors and laws within the opportunities and threats landscape of cervical cancer screening services in Vhembe District were analyzed. The Build, Overcome, Explore and Minimize (BOEM) paradigm was used to developed the intervention strategy. In Phase III, the qualitative and quantitative approach was used to validate the developed intervention strategies. A purposive sampling was used to sample fifteen PHCNs and 4 four managers. Conclusions Intervention strategies with action plans were developed. Recommendations Recommendations related to implementation of strategies to promote utilization of cervical cancer screening services were compiled.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / A persistent problem for hedge fund researchers presents itself in the form of inconsistent and diverse style classifications within and across database providers. For this paper, single-manager hedge funds from the Hedge Fund Research (HFR) and Hedgefund.Net (HFN) databases were classified on the basis of a common factor, extracted using the factor axis methodology. It was assumed that the returns of all sample hedge funds are attributable to a common factor that is shared across hedge funds within one classification, and a specific factor that is unique to a particular hedge fund. In contrast to earlier research and the application of principal component analysis, factor axis has sought to determine how much of the covariance in the dataset is due to common factors (communality). Factor axis largely ignores the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix and orthogonal factor rotation maximises the covariance between hedge fund return series. In an iterative framework, common factors were extracted until all return series were described by one common and one specific factor. Prior to factor extraction, the series was tested for autoregressive moving-average processes and the residuals of such models were used in further analysis to improve upon squared correlations as initial factor estimates. The methodology was applied to 120 ten-year rolling estimation windows in the July 1990 to June 2010 timeframe. The results indicate that the number of distinct style classifications is reduced in comparison to the arbitrary self-selected classifications of the databases. Single manager hedge funds were grouped in portfolios on the basis of the common factor they share. In contrast to other classification methodologies, these common factor portfolios (CFPs) assume that some unspecified individual component of the hedge fund constituents’ returns is diversified away and that single manager hedge funds should be classified according to their common return components. From the CFPs of single manager hedge funds, pure style indices were created to be entered in a multivariate autoregressive framework. For each style index, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was estimated to determine the short-term as well as co-integrating relationship of the hedge fund series with the index level series of a stock, bond and commodity proxy. It was postulated that a) in a well-diversified portfolio, the current level of the hedge fund index is independent of the lagged observations from the other asset indices; and b) if the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) hold, it is expected that the predictive power of the model will be low. The analysis was conducted for the July 2000 - June 2010 period. Impulse response tests and variance decomposition revealed that changes in hedge fund index levels are partially induced by changes in the stock, bond and currency markets. Investors are therefore cautioned not to overemphasise the diversification benefits of hedge fund investments. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) / managed futures, on the other hand, deliver diversification benefits when integrated with an existing portfolio. The results indicated that single manager hedge funds can be reliably classified using the principal factor axis methodology. Continuously re-balanced pure style index representations of these classifications could be used in further analysis. Extensive multivariate analysis revealed that CTAs and macro hedge funds offer superior diversification benefits in the context of existing portfolios. The empirical results are of interest not only to academic researchers, but also practitioners seeking to replicate the methodologies presented.

This paper examines the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and tests for causality using Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There is evidence of long-run relationships in the three models under consideration. The Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) finds no evidence to support the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for Zambia in the long-run. The evidence from the long-run suggests an opposite of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), in that the results indicate a U-shaped curve relationship between income and carbon emission. The conclusion on causality based on the VECM is that there is evidence of neutrality hypothesis between either total electricity and income or between industrial electricity and income in the short-run Additionally, there is evidence of conservation hypothesis in the context of residential and agricultural electricity consumption.

This study discusses the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the different channels. The analysis is conducted using generalized impulse response functions derived from a factor-augmented vector error correction (FAVECM) model. The FAVECM methodology as developed by Lee (2009) extends the factoraugmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model to analyze long-run and shortrun dynamics of non-stationary variables. This recenly derived FAVECM model combines the advantages of factor model and the VECM model. The estimations are conducted using 174 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 2000 to September 2009. Results indicate that interbank call loan rate, deposit rate and prime lending rate are conintegrated, which provides sufficient evidence of the existence of the credit channel in monetary transmission system. Other GIRF results are generally consistent of the expected monetary policy effectiveness.

This study revists Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and discusses the monetary policy transmission mechanism in exchange rate channels. The analysis is conducted using generalized impulse response functions derived from a Factor- Augmented Vector Error Correction (FAVECM) model. The FAVECM methodology as developed by Lee (2009) extends the Factor- Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model to analyze long-run and shortrun dynamics of non-stationary variables. This recently derived FAVECM model combines the advantages of factor model and the VECM model. The estimations are conducted using 157 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 2000 to September 2009. Results indicate that PPP exists and expansionary devaluation effect in Taiwan. Other GIRF results are generally consistent of the expected exchange rate effectiveness.

As the two main components of household portfolios, stocks and real estate are likely to catch people¡¦s attention. Although the number of extant studies on the interaction between the stock and real estate markets is large, the views and empirical evidence in those studies show inconsistent results. This dissertation provides an explanation for the inconsistent results: market imperfection. Employing the threshold vector error correction model to examine the interaction between Taiwan¡¦s stock and real estate markets during the period from 1973Q2 to 2009Q4, the empirical results support this explanation. When the transaction benefit from the disequilibrium between the stock and real estate markets can cover the potential cost resulting from market imperfection, the relationship between the stock and real estate markets is integrated; but when there is slight disequilibrium, the price of real estate will not converge since the arbitrage benefit cannot cover the cost of transaction. As a result, the relationship is segmented. The empirical results of the study are very robust as similar conclusions result when different proxies for housing prices are used. The interactions between the stock and the sub-region housing markets also show similar results. Finally, when macroeconomic factors are considered, the asymmetric dynamic relationship is still significant.

This study explores the dynamics between stock price and exchange rates through the cointegration methodology proposed by Herwartz and Luetkepohl (2011). Moreover, it consider the vector error correction model (VECM) with conditional heteroscedastic variance. And we use a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator to estimate the cointegrating vector. This paper analysis some Asian countries' data from 1997 to 2010. The evidence result suggests that Malaysia and Singapor's stock price and exchange rate are positively related. But Hong Kong's stock price is negatively related to exchange rate.