逆物流回收的複雜度遠比正向物流高，企業為專注核心價值多半將逆物流活動委外專業物流服務供應商。對第三方逆物流業者而言，選擇適當的回收處理中心位址為其重要核心能力之一，而現今研究對於選址模式中之回收不確定性，大多以歷史資料作為參數，無根據區域特性不同而有所分別。故本研究希望探討在零售商提供資訊的情境下，結合消費者問卷建構廢棄產品的使用年限機率、並以二元迴歸邏輯分析建構回收機率以此預測區域回收數量，透過資訊分享以建立更好的回收處理中心選址設置模式，使第三方逆物流業者可按照此模式選擇最適當的回收點位置與回收處理量安排用以求得利潤最大化。 / Since reverse logistics is much more complex than forward logistics, third-party logistics providers are often the prior choice for firms to obtain their core value when a reverse logistic activity is needed. For third-party logistics providers, the location is one of their crucial core values; while most of them can only rely on historical data to assume the best location, due to the uncertainty of recycling in present studies.Therefore, this paper tries to construct the probability of products’ used-years by combining the retailers’ information with consumer-oriented questionnaires. Binary logistic regression is the methodology used to analyze and predict recycling probability. By information-sharing the third-party logistics providers will be able to construct a better selecting model for the best facility location, which will reach the most suitable recycling quantity to maximize their profits.