This dissertation employs a qualitative case study approach to investigate the 2010-2012 Arab Spring. It addresses two research questions: 1) what are the Arab Spring events instances of, and 2) what gave rise to the variation across the Arab Spring outcomes? The ultimate objective of this research is to go beyond theorizing the Arab Spring to advance a typological theory on popular revolution. To that end, the study reviews several bodies of literature in the social sciences, and employs a structured, focused comparison approach to analyze variance across six Arab Spring cases: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Bahrain. As a result, four theoretical types of revolutionary action have been identified: elite-imposed popular evolution (EIPR), foreign-imposed popular revolution (FIPR), foreign-blocked abortive revolution (FBAR), and elite-blocked abortive revolution (EBAR). In addition, the research found EIPR to have been the case in Tunisia and Egypt, FIPR in Libya and Yemen, and FBAR in Syria and Bahrain; EBAR was an empty cell in the Arab Spring. Furthermore, the study proposes that cases of EIPR are likely to culminate in a quasi-coup by autonomous elites; FIPR in a foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC) by international intervention; FBAR in a foreign-imposed regime maintenance (FIRM) by foreign patrons; and EBAR in an elite-imposed regime maintenance (EIRM) by subservient elites. The contingent generalizations offered by this theory should help scholars and policy makers approximate the trajectory of future revolutionary events by tracing them to the above theoretical types. This should help them improve their overall response to recent and ongoing revolutionary events, especially in the area of conflict resolution.

Nas páginas desta Tese, procuramos entender o surgimento e a trajetória de um grupo de ex-marinheiros, que participou da diretoria da Associação dos Marinheiros e Fuzileiros Navais do Brasil, AMFNB, entre maio de 1963 e o Golpe de 1964. Suas origens remontam à crise de 1961, quando os ministros militares brasileiros tentaram impedir a posse do vice-presidente João Goulart, após a renúncia de Jânio Quadros. Esse grupo, que denominamos Coletivo, inseriu-se no movimento mais amplo dos militares subalternos das Forças Armadas, que teve seu auge na chamada Revolta dos Sargentos de setembro de 1963. A partir do Golpe de 1964, o Coletivo entrou nas organizações guerrilheiras, passando por uma transição de nacionalistas a revolucionários. Os membros desse Coletivo, algumas vezes, estiveram dispersos, mas voltavam sempre a se reunir como se estivessem ligados a um compromisso surgido nos tempos da AMFNB. O grupo foi preso e encaminhado para a Penitenciária Professor Lemos Brito. Nesse lugar, ocupando pontos estratégicos na Administração Penitenciária, pode executar atividades que melhoraram a vida dos presos comuns, bem como de preparar sua fuga da prisão. Para a execução do plano de fuga, denominado Operação Liberdade, criou-se uma organização guerrilheira clandestina, com o sugestivo nome MAR Movimento de Ação Revolucionária (a sigla se confundia com o substantivo mar), envolvendo várias pessoas de fora da Penitenciária. Sua fuga da prisão não significou afastamento da política. Ingressaram novamente na guerrilha no combate à ditadura civil-militar. Alguns de seus membros foram presos novamente, outros saíram do país e seu líder, Marcos Antônio da Silva Lima, foi morto numa emboscada da polícia, quando militava no PCBR. O caminho percorrido pelo Coletivo, após o Golpe, permite compreender as estratégias e a ideia que tinham as organizações guerrilheiras de revolução. Realizando as entrevistas com membros desse Coletivo, conseguimos acesso a suas avaliações sobre as organizações guerrilheiras pelas quais passaram e sobre aquela jornada histórica. / This thesis tries to understand the emergence and trajectory of a ex-sailors group who attended the board of the Association of Sailors and Marines of Brazil (Associação dos Marinheiros e Fuzileiros Navais do Brasil, AMFNB) from May 1963 to the coup of 1964. Its origins date back to the 1961 crisis, when Brazilian military ministers tried to prevent the vice-president João Goulart possession, after the resign of president Janio Quadros. This group, which we call Collective, was part of the broader movement of the subaltern Armed Forces personnel, which had its heyday in the named Revolt of the Sergeants September 1963. From the 1964 coup, the Collective entered guerrilla organizations, through a transition from the nationalist to revolutionaries. The members of this Collective sometimes been dispersed, but they always returned to meet as if they were connected to a compromise emerged in AMFNB times. The group was arrested and taken to the Penitentiary Teacher Lemos Brito. There, occupying strategic points in Prison Administration, it could perform activities that improved the lives of ordinary prisoners, and to prepare his escape from prison. They created for the implementation of the escape plan, called Freedom Operation, a clandestine guerilla organization, with the suggestive name MAR - Revolutionary Action Movement (the acronym was confused with the noun SEA), involving several people outside the penitentiary. Their prison break did not mean retirement from politics. Once again joined the guerrillas in fighting Brazilian civil-military dictatorship. Some of its members were arrested again, others left the country and its leader, Marcos Antonio da Silva Lima, was killed in a police ambush, when militated in PCBR. The path taken by the Collective after the coup allows us to understand the strategies and the concept of revolution which guerrilla organizations had. We got access to their reviews of the guerrilla organizations through which passed and on that historic journey conducting interviews with members of the Collective.

Nas páginas desta Tese, procuramos entender o surgimento e a trajetória de um grupo de ex-marinheiros, que participou da diretoria da Associação dos Marinheiros e Fuzileiros Navais do Brasil, AMFNB, entre maio de 1963 e o Golpe de 1964. Suas origens remontam à crise de 1961, quando os ministros militares brasileiros tentaram impedir a posse do vice-presidente João Goulart, após a renúncia de Jânio Quadros. Esse grupo, que denominamos Coletivo, inseriu-se no movimento mais amplo dos militares subalternos das Forças Armadas, que teve seu auge na chamada Revolta dos Sargentos de setembro de 1963. A partir do Golpe de 1964, o Coletivo entrou nas organizações guerrilheiras, passando por uma transição de nacionalistas a revolucionários. Os membros desse Coletivo, algumas vezes, estiveram dispersos, mas voltavam sempre a se reunir como se estivessem ligados a um compromisso surgido nos tempos da AMFNB. O grupo foi preso e encaminhado para a Penitenciária Professor Lemos Brito. Nesse lugar, ocupando pontos estratégicos na Administração Penitenciária, pode executar atividades que melhoraram a vida dos presos comuns, bem como de preparar sua fuga da prisão. Para a execução do plano de fuga, denominado Operação Liberdade, criou-se uma organização guerrilheira clandestina, com o sugestivo nome MAR Movimento de Ação Revolucionária (a sigla se confundia com o substantivo mar), envolvendo várias pessoas de fora da Penitenciária. Sua fuga da prisão não significou afastamento da política. Ingressaram novamente na guerrilha no combate à ditadura civil-militar. Alguns de seus membros foram presos novamente, outros saíram do país e seu líder, Marcos Antônio da Silva Lima, foi morto numa emboscada da polícia, quando militava no PCBR. O caminho percorrido pelo Coletivo, após o Golpe, permite compreender as estratégias e a ideia que tinham as organizações guerrilheiras de revolução. Realizando as entrevistas com membros desse Coletivo, conseguimos acesso a suas avaliações sobre as organizações guerrilheiras pelas quais passaram e sobre aquela jornada histórica. / This thesis tries to understand the emergence and trajectory of a ex-sailors group who attended the board of the Association of Sailors and Marines of Brazil (Associação dos Marinheiros e Fuzileiros Navais do Brasil, AMFNB) from May 1963 to the coup of 1964. Its origins date back to the 1961 crisis, when Brazilian military ministers tried to prevent the vice-president João Goulart possession, after the resign of president Janio Quadros. This group, which we call Collective, was part of the broader movement of the subaltern Armed Forces personnel, which had its heyday in the named Revolt of the Sergeants September 1963. From the 1964 coup, the Collective entered guerrilla organizations, through a transition from the nationalist to revolutionaries. The members of this Collective sometimes been dispersed, but they always returned to meet as if they were connected to a compromise emerged in AMFNB times. The group was arrested and taken to the Penitentiary Teacher Lemos Brito. There, occupying strategic points in Prison Administration, it could perform activities that improved the lives of ordinary prisoners, and to prepare his escape from prison. They created for the implementation of the escape plan, called Freedom Operation, a clandestine guerilla organization, with the suggestive name MAR - Revolutionary Action Movement (the acronym was confused with the noun SEA), involving several people outside the penitentiary. Their prison break did not mean retirement from politics. Once again joined the guerrillas in fighting Brazilian civil-military dictatorship. Some of its members were arrested again, others left the country and its leader, Marcos Antonio da Silva Lima, was killed in a police ambush, when militated in PCBR. The path taken by the Collective after the coup allows us to understand the strategies and the concept of revolution which guerrilla organizations had. We got access to their reviews of the guerrilla organizations through which passed and on that historic journey conducting interviews with members of the Collective.