by Man Ka Kit. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-76). / ABSTRACT --- p.3 / INTRODUCTION --- p.4 / Chapter PART I --- WHAT IS PREDICTION? --- p.7 / Chapter 1.1 --- Structure of Scientific Explanation： Covering-Law Model --- p.8 / Chapter 1.2 --- Prediction and Theory choice --- p.10 / Chapter 1.3 --- Prediction and Economic Methodology --- p.11 / Chapter 1.4 --- Conventional Wisdom --- p.12 / Chapter 1.41 --- Friedman's Methodology --- p.12 / Chapter 1.42 --- The Impact of Popper --- p.14 / Chapter 1.5 --- Unconventional Wisdom --- p.16 / Chapter 1.51 --- KUHN AND LAKATOS --- p.16 / Chapter 1.52 --- FEYERABEND THE ANARCHIST --- p.17 / Chapter 1.6 --- Conclusion for Part I --- p.18 / Chapter PART II --- MACROECONOMIC CONTROVERSY --- p.20 / Chapter 2.1 --- "lucas' Critique, the New Classical and the New Keynesian" --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2 --- The Role of Stabilization Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 2.3 --- Effectiveness of Monetary Policy --- p.24 / Chapter 2.4 --- effectiveness of fiscal policy --- p.25 / Chapter 2.5 --- Conclusion for Part II --- p.26 / Chapter PART III --- TESTING RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE --- p.28 / Chapter 3.1 --- ricardian equivalence versus keynesian theory --- p.29 / Chapter 3:2 --- (unrealistic) assumptions behind ricardian proposition --- p.31 / Chapter 3.21 --- "INEFINTIE horizon, altruism, and intergeneration transfer" --- p.31 / Chapter 3.22 --- IMPERFECT CAPITAL MARKET --- p.34 / Chapter 3 23 --- DISTORTIONARY TAX --- p.35 / Chapter 3.24 --- "BOUNDED rationality, PERFECT FORESIGHT, AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS" --- p.36 / Chapter 3.3 --- Empirical Evidence --- p.37 / Chapter 3.31 --- CONSUMPTION FUNCTION STUDIES --- p.38 / Chapter 3 32 --- INTEREST RATE STUDIES --- p.43 / Chapter 3.4 --- technical problems： (unrealistic) assumptions behind the econometric models --- p.45 / Chapter 3.41 --- Specification and Data Generation Process --- p.45 / Chapter 3 42 --- IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM --- p.48 / Chapter 3 43 --- staggerjng of (NOT-well-established) hypotheses --- p.49 / Chapter 3.44 --- PROXIES FOR unobservables --- p.50 / Chapter 3.5 --- Conclusion for Part III --- p.51 / Chapter PART IV --- CONCLUSION --- p.53 / Chapter 4.1 --- Duhem-Quine Thesis --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Austrians and Subjectivism --- p.55 / Chapter 4.3 --- hausman --- p.57 / Chapter 4.4 --- Friedman and Popper Revisited --- p.58 / Chapter 4.5 --- The Role of Prediction --- p.61 / EPILOGUE --- p.62 / Ricardian Equivalence Vs Approximate Equivalence： Some Reflections --- p.62 / Truth and Invariance --- p.63 / "Certitude, Simplicity, and Irrationality" --- p.65 / REFERENCES --- p.67