M.A. (Philosophy) / The purpose of my project is to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a prediction to be considered good. Alex Broadbent (2013) claims that a good prediction is a stable prediction, thereby providing an internalist account of judging predictions. In contrast, this project demonstrates that an externalist approach to identifying good predictions is not only possible but, on the proposed view, more reliable too. Robert Nozick’s notion of sensitivity provides a means of understanding what makes a good prediction. It is argued that a good prediction is a sensitive prediction; one where a prediction activity tracks the truth of the claims and assumptions used to produce prediction claims. To gauge whether a prediction activity tracks the truth it is suggested that we ask the following question of the prediction: if the claims and assumptions appealed to in the prediction activity were false, would the same prediction claims have been made if at all? If the prediction claims would have been made in spite of this, then the prediction is not sensitive. Otherwise, the prediction satisfies the following tracking condition for good prediction: in the closest possible world to our own where one or more of the claims and assumptions appealed to in the prediction activity are false the prediction claims would be different or not made at all.

Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Auburn University, 2005. / Abstract. Includes bibliographic references (p.122-126).

One very significant characteristic of Hempel's covering-law models of scientific explanation, that is, the deductive-nomological model and the inductive-statistical model, is the supposed symmetry between explanation and prediction. In brief, the symmetry thesis asserts that explanation and prediction have the same logical structure; in other words, if an explanation of an. event had been taken account of in time, then it could have served as a basis for predicting the event in question, and vice versa. The present thesis is a critical analysis of the validity of this purported symmetry between explanation and prediction. The substance of the thesis begins with a defence against some common misconceptions of the symmetry thesis, for example, the idea that the symmetry concerns statements but not arguments. Specifically, Grunbaum's interpretation of the symmetry thesis as pertaining to the logical inferability rather than the epistemological symmetry between explanation and prediction is examined. The first sub-thesis of the symmetry thesis, namely that "Every adequate explanation is a potential prediction," is then analyzed. Purported counterexamples such as evolutionary theory and the paresis case are critically examined and consequently dismissed. Since there are conflicting views regarding the nature of explanation and prediction in evolutionary theory, a case study of the theory is also presented. Next, the second sub-thesis of the symmetry thesis, namely that "Every adequate prediction is a potential explanation," is discussed. In particular, the barometer case is discharged as a counterexample to the second sub-thesis when the explanatory power of indicator laws is properly understood. Finally, Salmon's current causal-relevance model of explanation, which claims to be an alternative to Hempel's inductive-statistical model, is critically analyzed. A modified inductive-statistical model of explanation is also proposed. This modified model retains the nomological ingredient of Hempel's original inductive-statistical model, but it is immune to criticisms raised against the latter. In conclusion, I maintain that there is indeed a symmetry between explanation and prediction. But since deductive-nomological explanation and prediction are essentially different from inductive-statistical explanation and prediction, the form the symmetry takes between deductive-nomological explanation and prediction differs from the form it exhibits between inductive-statistical explanation and prediction. / Arts, Faculty of / Philosophy, Department of / Graduate

No description available.

Chan, Kam Fung. / "September 2010." / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 61-62). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.6 / Chapter 1.1 --- Main result --- p.6 / Chapter 1.2 --- Useful definition --- p.7 / Chapter 1.3 --- Outline of proof of Theoreml.l --- p.11 / Chapter 2 --- Proof of Theorem1.2 and 13 --- p.12 / Chapter 2.1 --- The spaces \hV\ and \hW\ --- p.13 / Chapter 2.2 --- The space \hWloc\ --- p.19 / Chapter 2.3 --- The space \Wloc\ --- p.23 / Chapter 3 --- Proof of Theoreml4 --- p.26 / Chapter 3.1 --- Sheaves with category structure --- p.26 / Chapter 3.2 --- W° and hW° --- p.29 / Chapter 3.3 --- Armlets --- p.29 / Chapter 4 --- Proof of Theorem15 --- p.36 / Chapter 4.1 --- Homotopy colimit decompositions --- p.36 / Chapter 4.2 --- Introducing boundaries --- p.50 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Proof of Theorem4.21 --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Proof of Lemma4.20 --- p.56 / Chapter 4.3 --- Using the Harer-Ivanov stabilization theorem --- p.58 / Bibliography --- p.61

by Man Ka Kit. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1994. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 67-76). / ABSTRACT --- p.3 / INTRODUCTION --- p.4 / Chapter PART I --- WHAT IS PREDICTION? --- p.7 / Chapter 1.1 --- Structure of Scientific Explanation： Covering-Law Model --- p.8 / Chapter 1.2 --- Prediction and Theory choice --- p.10 / Chapter 1.3 --- Prediction and Economic Methodology --- p.11 / Chapter 1.4 --- Conventional Wisdom --- p.12 / Chapter 1.41 --- Friedman's Methodology --- p.12 / Chapter 1.42 --- The Impact of Popper --- p.14 / Chapter 1.5 --- Unconventional Wisdom --- p.16 / Chapter 1.51 --- KUHN AND LAKATOS --- p.16 / Chapter 1.52 --- FEYERABEND THE ANARCHIST --- p.17 / Chapter 1.6 --- Conclusion for Part I --- p.18 / Chapter PART II --- MACROECONOMIC CONTROVERSY --- p.20 / Chapter 2.1 --- "lucas' Critique, the New Classical and the New Keynesian" --- p.20 / Chapter 2.2 --- The Role of Stabilization Policy --- p.22 / Chapter 2.3 --- Effectiveness of Monetary Policy --- p.24 / Chapter 2.4 --- effectiveness of fiscal policy --- p.25 / Chapter 2.5 --- Conclusion for Part II --- p.26 / Chapter PART III --- TESTING RICARDIAN EQUIVALENCE --- p.28 / Chapter 3.1 --- ricardian equivalence versus keynesian theory --- p.29 / Chapter 3:2 --- (unrealistic) assumptions behind ricardian proposition --- p.31 / Chapter 3.21 --- "INEFINTIE horizon, altruism, and intergeneration transfer" --- p.31 / Chapter 3.22 --- IMPERFECT CAPITAL MARKET --- p.34 / Chapter 3 23 --- DISTORTIONARY TAX --- p.35 / Chapter 3.24 --- "BOUNDED rationality, PERFECT FORESIGHT, AND RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS" --- p.36 / Chapter 3.3 --- Empirical Evidence --- p.37 / Chapter 3.31 --- CONSUMPTION FUNCTION STUDIES --- p.38 / Chapter 3 32 --- INTEREST RATE STUDIES --- p.43 / Chapter 3.4 --- technical problems： (unrealistic) assumptions behind the econometric models --- p.45 / Chapter 3.41 --- Specification and Data Generation Process --- p.45 / Chapter 3 42 --- IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM --- p.48 / Chapter 3 43 --- staggerjng of (NOT-well-established) hypotheses --- p.49 / Chapter 3.44 --- PROXIES FOR unobservables --- p.50 / Chapter 3.5 --- Conclusion for Part III --- p.51 / Chapter PART IV --- CONCLUSION --- p.53 / Chapter 4.1 --- Duhem-Quine Thesis --- p.53 / Chapter 4.2 --- The Austrians and Subjectivism --- p.55 / Chapter 4.3 --- hausman --- p.57 / Chapter 4.4 --- Friedman and Popper Revisited --- p.58 / Chapter 4.5 --- The Role of Prediction --- p.61 / EPILOGUE --- p.62 / Ricardian Equivalence Vs Approximate Equivalence： Some Reflections --- p.62 / Truth and Invariance --- p.63 / "Certitude, Simplicity, and Irrationality" --- p.65 / REFERENCES --- p.67

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Pereira / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Odontologia de Piracicaba / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-10T00:54:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tagliaferro_ElainePereiradaSilva_D.pdf: 1277589 bytes, checksum: 7d18c6a6334732d392cd1f298fe1c272 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008 / Resumo: A avaliação de risco de cárie é uma ferramenta importante na odontologia, uma vez que favorece o planejamento das ações em saúde com base em evidência científica. Esta tese, composta por dois estudos, teve como objetivos: a) apresentar uma visão geral e atual da avaliação de risco de cárie dentária (Capítulo 1); e b) determinar quais variáveis clínicas, comportamentais, socioeconômicas e demográficas identificaram indivíduos com maior probabilidade de desenvolver incremento de cárie, em estudo longitudinal realizado em um período de sete anos (Capítulo 2). No primeiro estudo, uma revisão da literatura odontológica sobre avaliação de risco de cárie nos últimos 10 anos foi realizada, a fim de identificar os fatores/preditores de risco da doença em crianças e adolescentes. Para isso, uma busca de artigos científicos publicados entre 1997 e 2007 foi conduzida na base de dados MEDLINE. Os estudos foram conduzidos principalmente com escolares (n= 19), seguidos pelas pesquisas realizadas em crianças em idade pré-escolar (n=l1), adolescentes (n=8) e crianças de até dois anos (n=5). A experiência de cárie, condição gengival, contagem microbiológica, hábitos de higiene oral, concentração de minerais no biofilme dental, exposição ao fluoreto, nível socioeconômico e educacional, características demográficas, antropométricas, bem como hábitos bucais, dietéticos e de escovação foram as variáveis estudadas. A experiência passada de cárie foi o preditor dç risco predominante em todas as faixas etárias pesquisadas. Outras variáveis como os hábitos dietéticos, incluindo o consumo de açúcar, e os de escovação também podem ajudar a identificar indivíduos de alto risco de cárie. No segundo estudo, 206 escolares de três escolas de Piracicaba, estado de São Paulo, foram examinados no baseline e após sete anos pelos mesmos cirurgiões-dentistas, previamente calibrados, sob luz natural, usando espelho e sonda e seguindo as recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde para levantamentos epidemiológicos em saúde bucal. Os examinadores coletaram dados sobre as seguintes variáveis clínicas: cárie dentária, fluorose, higiene oral e presença de selante. Adicionalmente, informações sobre nível socioeconômico, uso de fluoreto, acesso a serviços odontológicos, hábitos dietéticos e de higiene oral foram obtidas no baseline por meio de questionário semi-estruturado enviado aos pais. Para testar a associação entre o incremento de superficies cariadas, perdidas e obturadas (CPOS) e as variáveis independentes, uma análise univariada foi conduzida utilizando-se o teste de Qui-quadrado ou o Exato de Fisher. A regressão logística múltipla foi usada para obter estimativas de Odds Ratios (OR), seus intervalos de confiança (IC) ao nível de 95% e níveis de significância. O modelo de predição demonstrou que os escolares com experiência de cárie em dentes permanentes (OR=2,49; IC=1,02-6,04; p=0,04) ou em dentes decíduos (OR=2,29; IC=1,24-4,23; p=0,00l), bem como aqueles cuja escolaridade máxima da mãe era de oito anos de estudo (OR=1,88; IC=1,03-3,45; p=0,03) apresentaram probabilidades significativamente superiores de apresentar incremento de CPOS. Os resultados desta tese demonstraram que o nível educacional materno pode identificar os escolares com risco de desenvolver a doença e que as variáveis relacionadas à experiência passada de cárie continuam sendo o principal preditor de risco / Abstract: Caries risk assessment is an important tool for dentistry, because it may help planning health actions based on scientific evidences. This thesis, composed of two studies, aimed to a) present an overview of caries risk assessment (Chapter 1); and b) determine which clinical, behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic variables could identify children with higher probability of developing caries increment in a seven-year longitudinal study (Chapter 2). In the first study, a search of the published English language literature from 1997 to 2007 was made for articles that reported on caries risk assessment in the MEDLINE database. The studies were conducted mainly in schoolchildren (n=19), followed by preschool children (n=11), adolescents (n=8), and infants (n=5). Variables such as caries experience, gingival status, microbiological counts, oral hygiene, plaque mineral concentration, fluoride history, socioeconomic and educationallevel, demographic, anthropometrical, oral, dietary and toothbrushing habits were studied. Past caries experience has been the predominant predictor of caries risk in 0-18-years old subjects. Other predictors such as dietary habits, including sugar intake, and toothbrushing habits may also help to identify high-risk individuals. Variables related to caries experience continue to be the main predictor of caries incremento In the second study, two hundred and six children from three schools in Piracicaba, Brazil, were examined at baseline and after 7 years by the same calibrated dentists in an outdoor setting, under natural light, using a dental mirror and probe following the World Health Organization recommendations for oral health surveys. The examiners collected data on the following clinical variables: dental caries, fluorosis, oral hygiene and presence of sealant. Moreover, information on socioeconomic level, fluoride usage, dental service utilization, dietary and oral hygiene habits was also obtained at baseline by means of a semi-structured questionnaire sent to the parents. In order to evaluate the association between the decayed, filling and missed surfaces (DMFS) increment and independent variables, a univariate analysis was performed using the Chi-square or Fisher exact tests. The multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted Odds Ratio (OR), their 95% confidence intervals (C I) and significance levels. The prediction model demonstrated that the schoolchildren with caries experience in permanent (OR=2.49; CI=1.02-6.04; p=0.04) or primary teeth (OR=2.29; CI=1.24-4.23; p=0.001), as well as those whose mothers' educational level was up to eight years of schooling (OR=1.88; CI=1.03-3.45; p=0.03) were more prone to have DMFS increment. The results of this thesis demonstrated that the educational leveI of mothers could identify the schoolchildren at risk of developing the disease and that variables related to past caries experience continue to be the main risk predictor / Doutorado / Saude Coletiva / Doutor em Odontologia

The thesis provides answers, in one case partial and in the other final, to two conjectures in the area of weighted inequalities for Singular Integral Operators. We study the mapping properties of these operators in weighted Lebesgue spaces with weight w. The novelty of this thesis resides in proving sharp dependence of the operator norm on the Muckenhoupt constant associated to the weigth w for a rich class of Singular Integral operators. The thesis also addresses the end point case p=1, providing counterexamples for the dyadic and continuous settings.