Earthquakes are amongst the worst natural disasters on Earth, resulting in an annual average of around 10,000 fatalities last century and progressively increasing in the amount of economic damage they cause, reaching US $20 billion per annum this decade. The mitigation of the unwanted consequences of earthquakes is normally achieved by Risk Management Strategies (RMS), which rely on the development of Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) techniques. This thesis aims to develop a framework for ERA for medium seismicity regions that incorporates the spatial aspects of the hazard and risk evaluation. The framework is used to undertake ERA for the island of Cyprus, and the information is used to propose RMS. The ERA framework relies on comprehensive data on the location, value and vulnerability of buildings and the population distribution. These data were collected from the various Cyprus Government Departments. Various hazard and attenuation models are examined, and the effect of their variability is taken into account through Monte Carlo simulations. The estimated annual risk for Cyprus is just below £ 10 million CY. This value was estimated based on the use of the re-appraised historical data for the past-century. Comparisons with other seismic hazard assessment methods, such as recurrence relationships, have revealed that, without a spatial distribution model, such approaches are unsuitable for ERA. Though the maximum intensities predicted are in line with the ones that underpin the aseismic code of Cyprus (CCEAA-CFEE, 1994), the predicted design accelerations are higher than given in the code. Hence, new seismic accelerations are proposed. Despite that, the current reduction in risk is comparable to the additional cost of aseismic design. Seismic retrofitting was also examined and it was found that as part of a general modernisation scheme seismic upgrading is cost effective. However, whatever the state of the building, it is recommended that earthquake insurance should be made mandatory. The current seismic insurance rates appear to be fair, though they seem to underestimate the risk in the areas of high seismicity. The number of likely human losses is also estimated. This study concludes that the result of ERA is heavily dependent on the models and data used, and both require constant updating for the ERA results to remain meaningful.

Master of Science / Department of Agricultural Economics / Kevin C. Dhuyvetter / Risk is an inevitable part of production agriculture. Price risk is especially a concern for cattle producers in the Midwest. Producers can curtail profit volatility, to an extent, through the utilization of price risk management strategies such as forward contracting, hedging, using put and call options, Livestock Risk Protection Insurance (LRP), as well as Livestock Gross Insurance (LGM) for feedlot cattle. Learning about such price risk management tools can be a daunting task. Kansas State University Extension created a computer based simulation workshop to assist them in teaching cattle producers about price risk management strategies. The simulation paralleled a lecture where participants learned of the price risk management strategies that are available. The simulation allowed the workshop participants to practice using the management strategies as they assumed the role of a feedlot or ranch manager in charge of marketing the operation's calves. In a cooperative effort with Iowa State University, Kansas State University presented the Cattle Risk Management Workshops across the state of Iowa. Participants were given pre-and posttests to measure the effectiveness of the workshop. The overall post-test scores were 25 percentage points higher than the pre-test scores. This research also discusses the interest and perceptions of cattle producers regarding price risk management strategies. The effectiveness of simulations as a teaching tool in helping producers learn about price risk management strategies is also reviewed. In addition, the various price risk management strategies available to producers, as well as seasonality of prices and basis are analyzed. This research also explains and estimates the LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model was developed with the objective of assisting producers in forecasting LRP basis. The model was developed using similar methodology applied in the creation of a CME basis forecasting model developed by Kansas State University Extension and Custom Ag Solutions, Inc. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model automatically adjusts for the LRP price adjustment factor applied to beef steer calves weighing less than 600 pounds, and beef heifers weighing 600-900 pounds. The LRP Feeder Cattle Basis Model explains 71.37 percent of the variation of LRP basis.

The 1996 and 2002 Farm Bill changes in milk support price legislation deregulated the market and milk prices are more volatile than ever. The use of a mechanism to reduce farmers' exposure to volatile milk prices has therefore become essential. This study evaluates the impact of two hedging strategies, one conservative and the other an intermediate one (more sophisticated). Optimal parameters for the two strategies are searched over a period of 5 years. Then, the performance, in terms of increased profitability and reduced variation, is assessed and the best performer is chosen and applied to an out-of-sample dataset. With the in-sample data, both strategies generate higher mean monthly profits than with the no-hedging option. Comparison of both strategies indicates that the intermediate strategy outperforms the conservative one in terms of higher profitability and lower variance. Out-of-sample results confirm the findings of the in-sample results. The additional profits and the reduction in volatility can make the difference between keeping a farm profitable and bankruptcy. / Master of Science

Bakgrund: Globalt sett är översvämningar, näst efter stormar, den naturfara som orsakar mest ekonomisk skada. Inom Europeiska unionen (EU) fick översvämningar ett ökat fokus efter att Europa under 2002 drabbades av stora översvämningar. Mot denna bakgrund lanserades i oktober 2012 det EU-finansierade projektet STAR-FLOOD. Projektet mynnade ut i en guidebok för hur översvämningsrisker kan hanteras. I guideboken, skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) rekommenderas en blandning av strategier (diversifiering), för hanteringen av översvämningsrisker. Inom EU har översvämningsrisker traditionellt hanterats genom fysiska skydd, vilket bara är en av flera strategier. I Sverige hanteras översvämningar främst i den akuta fasen och genom privata försäkringar. Översvämningsskydd har först på senare tid fått allt större betydelse för hur översvämningar hanteras i Sverige, något som kan exemplifieras genom den vall som ska byggas på Falsterbonäset i Vellinge kommun i sydvästra Skåne. Det finns en paradox med den typen av strukturella översvämningsskydd och det är att skydden faktiskt kan öka översvämningsrisken. Paradoxen kallas för levé-effekten och innebär att strukturella översvämningsskydd kan leda till en falsk trygghet hos dem som bor i det skyddade området. En diversifierad strategi för hantering av översvämningsrisker kan däremot minska risken för att levé-effekten uppstår. Syfte: Att studera i vilken mån en diversifierad strategi kan spåras i fallet med det planerade översvämningsskyddet på Falsterbonäset. Metod: En beskrivande fallstudie av hur översvämningsrisker från havet hanteras på Falsterbonäset. Materialet har i huvudsak samlats in genom kvalitativa intervjuer som sedan analyserats med riktad kvalitativ innehållsanalys. Som komplement till intervjuerna har även annat material analyserats, främst kommundokument. Den teori som studien grundas på är levé-effekten och teorin om riskhomeostas. Resultat: Mot bakgrund av guideboken skriven av Raadgever m.fl. (2016) är det möjligt för Vellinge kommun att vidta fler strategier för att minska sannolikheten för och konsekvenserna av översvämningar på Falsterbonäset. Exempelvis hade det varit möjligt att begränsa utvecklingen i det skyddade området och ställa tydliga krav på plushöjder för nybyggnation. Samtidigt har kommunens strategi aldrig varit så diversifierad som nu med anledning av det kommande översvämningsskyddet. Avslutningsvis finns det vissa indikationer på att en levé-effekt kan uppstå. / Background: In a global perspective are floods, after storms, the natural hazard that causes the most economic damage. Within the European Union (EU), floods gained increased focus after Europe was hit by major floods in 2002. Because of this, the EU-funded project STAR-FLOOD was launched in October 2012. Among other things, the project resulted in a guidebook for how flood risks can be managed. The guidebook, written by Raadgever et.al. (2016), recommends a mix of strategies (diversification) for the management of flood risks. Within the EU, flood risks have traditionally been managed through structural protection, being just one of several strategies. In Sweden, floods are managed mainly in the acute phase and through private insurance. Flood protection has recently become increasingly important for how floods are handled in Sweden, which can be exemplified by the levee that is to be built on Falsterbonäset in Vellinge municipality in Skåne. However, there is a paradox with this type of structural flood protection, and it is that these can increase the risk of flooding. The paradox is called the levee effect and means that structural flood protection can lead to a false sense of security in those who live in the protected area. A diversified strategy for managing flood risks can reduce the risk of the levee effect. Purpose: Study to which extent a diversified strategy can be traced in the case of structural protection that is planned structural on Falsterbonäset. Method: A descriptive case study of how flood risks from the sea are managed on Falsterbonäset. The material has mainly been collected through qualitative interviews which have then been analysed with a directed qualitative content analysis. As a complement to the interviews, other material has also been analysed, mainly municipal documents. The theory on which the study is based, is the levee effect and the theory of risk homeostasis. Results: Based on the guidebook by Raadgever et.al. (2016), it is possible for Vellinge municipality to do more to reduce the probability and the consequences of floods on Falsterbonäset. For example, it would have been possible to limit the development in the protected area and set clear requirements for heights for new buildings. At the same time, the municipality's strategy has never been as diversified as it is now, due to the forthcoming flood protection. However, there are some indications of conditions for a levee effect to occur.