The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate the need for enhanced accounting methodology for financial instruments which are traded in the global financial markets. The thesis proposes an accounting framework within which the value-at-risk of financial instruments can be disclosed in the financial statements of enterprises. The thesis considers accounting developments in recent years and analyses the latest proposals suggested by international accounting bodies. It furthermore contemplates the requirements of the Bank for International Settlements in terms of capital adequacy and value-at-risk requirements. In order to provide a meaningful analysis of the subject matter of financial instruments, the various market risks pertaining to the accounting of financial instruments are discussed and considered in terms of their application to the underlying bu. siness of the enterprise. - Extensive analysis is done of valuation techniques and the mathematical concepts of value-atrisk. In this regard the pioneering works of professor Philippe Jorion of the University of California is used to illustrate the application of value-at-risk. The objective of this comprehensive analysis of value-at-risk is to suggest a meaningful method to account for risk exposures in financial instruments and ensure greater transparency in terms of disclosure. In this regard the thesis follows the guidelines proposed by the International Accounting Standards Committee in terms of recognition (definitions}, measurement (valuation}, presentation (classification} and disclosure (terms, conditions and accounting policies} of financial instruments. Consideration is also given to global accounting harmonisation and a number of accounting concerns which are presently unresolved. In this regard certain hedge issues as well as the differences between accrual accounting and fair value accounting are considered. Disclosure requirements are analysed in detail, especially in respect of value-at-risk accounting. Finally, the thesis illustrates the significant growth of products and instruments in the financial markets and the severe financial impact it has in terms of global capital and global financial losses. / Financial Accounting / DCom (Applied Accountancy)

Die verkeerdelike posisionering van risikobestuur binne organisasies kan die rapporteringskanaal van die risikobestuurder beinvloed. Daar is ook merkbare verskille ten opsigte van risikobeheer aktiwiteite (bv. Sekuriteit en Beroepsgesondheid en-Veiligheid, ens.) Die term "risikobestuurder" word dikwels gebruik vir verskeie posbenamings, byvoorbeeld geboue- of fasilitiete bestuurder, en skep nie alleen verwarring nie, maar bevorder ook nie eenheidsdenke binne die organisasie nie. Risikobestuur het topbestuurstatus binne die organisasie, maar het ook sekere unieke probleme - soos vertragings in besluitnemings- en kommunikasieprosesse. Die oplossing le in die opgradering van die risikobestuurder se posvlak tot die van topbestuurslid waar risikobestuursaangeleenthede op hoer vlak aangespreek kan word. / Police Practice / M.A. (Polisiekunde)

The current extremely volatile business world requires firms to deal with a wide range of risks that pose threats to their organisations. The poor practices of risk management, based on Traditional Risk Management (TRM), was cited time and time again in the aftermath of the recent Global Crisis. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has been advocated as a solution to the problems of TRM. The aim is to centralise the management of risk within the organisation and ensure that the board deals with the risk. Hence strategic, external, internal, operational, compliance and reputational risk are dealt with jointly. In doing so, it is expected that ERM will bring value creation to firms. One of the main limitations facing researchers is the lack of a good standardised measurement of ERM implementation; therefore, it has not been possible to establish whether ERM does actually bring benefit to firms. In addition, many companies have set up ERM initiatives, but they lack a clear understanding of the factors that will lead to successful ERM implementation. The remaining unanswered problematic situation has led to two unanswered questions that will determine whether the solution to ERM implementation is avoiding potential pitfalls and improving business sustainability. Firstly, does ERM implementation have an impact on firm performance? And secondly, which is the firm-specific characteristic that leads to better ERM implementation level? This thesis answers the aforementioned questions by proposing a reliable ERM measurement method, and then testing whether firms that adopt ERM actually improve financial performance and determine the influential factor of ERM implementation. The proposed method for measuring ERM implementation is based on the components developed from the current ERM frameworks, where contribution scoring can be standardised to measure ERM implementation level. To demonstrate its viability, data was collected from publicly listed firms in Thailand and was then compared to three alternative methodologies: cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS). The results show that the proposed method did well compared to the alternatives, both statistically and in prediction performance. The relationship between the proposed ERM measurement and firm performance is then considered by taking appropriate control variables into account, such as the firm’s size and characteristics, industry effects, sales growth and the external environment: technology, market uncertainty, as well as economic factors. By using data from the Thailand Stock Exchange, it was found that implementing ERM could improve firm performance in term of Tobin's Q, ROE and ROA. The results show that ERM and firm performance are related. For the influential factor of ERM implementation, the empirical results show that a firm’s size and economic factors have a statistically positive relationship with a high level of ERM implementation, while lower ERM scores show more revenue volatility than those who have well-implemented ERMs. Furthermore, technology and growth are positively related to each ERM in the scoring system considered.

High demand of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in recent time requires LNG carriers in more frequent operations in order to meet customers' needs. To ensure that the LNG carriers are always reliable in service, it has become necessary to adopt various advanced modelling techniques such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), fuzzy logic and Evidential Reasoning (ER) for risk/safety assessment and maintenance modelling of LNG carrier operations. These advanced computational techniques can help to overcome challenges posed by uncertainties associated with the LNG carrier operations. Their usefulness is demonstrated using case studies in this research. Firstly, two major hazards of LNG carrier operations such as "failure of LNG containment system" and "LNG spill from transfer arm" are identified and estimated as high risk ones using a risk matrix technique and expert judgement. The causes (failure modeslbasic events) of these high risk hazards are analysed using a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The failure logics of their failure modes are established and Boolean algebra is applied to facilitate the evaluation of the failure probabilities and frequencies. Secondly, a GA model is developed to improve the safety levels of the LNG containment system and transfer arm, to minimise their maintenance costs and to realise optimal resource management. The GA is used to optimise a risk model that is developed with exponential distribution and parameters such as failure frequencies, unit costs of maintenance and new maintenance costs of the LNG containment system and transfer arm. Thirdly, the uncertainties of some parameters in the GA model such as unit costs of maintenance are subdued using the strength of Fuzzy Rule Base (FRB) in combination with GA. 125 fuzzy rules of LNG carrier system maintenance cost are developed, which makes it possible to facilitate the evaluation of maintenance cost in any specific LNG risk-based operation. The outcomes of unit costs of maintenance are used in the GA based risk model to update the optimal management of maintenance cost. Finally, the uncertainties of failure modes of the LNG containment system and transfer arm are investigated and treated based on the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) principle using a Fuzzy ER (FER) approach. The fuzzy logic is used to estimate the safety/risk levels of those failure modes while the ER is used to synthesise them to facilitate the estimation of safety/risk levels of the top events. Risk Control Options (RCOs) are developed to manage high level risks. The costs for each of the RCOs are estimated and synthesised using ER, which facilitated the investigation of the best RCOs in risk-based decision making. There is no doubt that the methodologies proposed possess significant potential for use in improving safety and maintenance of LNG carrier operations based on the verifications of their corresponding test cases. Accordingly, the developed models can be integrated to formulate a platform to facilitate risk assessment and maintenance management of LNG carrier systems in situations where traditional techniques cannot be applied with confidence.

A chemical supply chain (CSC) presents a network that integrates suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers and customers into one system. The hazards arising from the internal system and the surrounding environment may cause disturbances to material, information and financial flows. Therefore, supply chain members have to implement a variety of methods to prepare for, respond to and recover from potential damages caused by different kinds of hazards. A large number of studies have been devoted to extending the current knowledge and enhancing the implementation of chemical supply chain risk management (CSCRM), to improve both safety and reliability of the CSCRM systems. However, the majority of existing risk management methods fail to address the complex interactions and dynamic feedback effects in the systems, which could significantly affect the risk management outcomes. In order to bridge the gaps, a new CSCRM method based on System Dynamics (SD) is proposed to accommodate the need to describe the connections between risks and their associated changes of system behaviour. The novelty of this method lies not only on providing a valid description of a real system, but also on addressing the interactions of the hazardous events and managerial activities in the systems. In doing so, the risk effects are quantified and assessed in different supply chain levels. Based upon the flexibility of SD modelling processes, the model developer can modify the developed model throughout the model life cycle. Instead of directly assessing different risks and providing arbitrary decisions, the obtained numerical results can offer supportive information for assessing potential risk reduction measures and continuously improving the CSC system performance. To demonstrate the applicability of the newly proposed method, a reputed specialty chemical transportation service provider in China is used and analysed through modelling and simulating the chemical supply chain transportation (CSCT) operations in various scenarios. It offers policy makers and operators insights into the risk-affected CSC operations and CSCRM decision-making processes, thus helping them develop rational risk reduction decisions in a dynamic environment.

O gerenciamento de riscos e a segurança são aspectos importantes a serem considerados na elaboração de projetos. No entanto, o primeiro é pouco utilizado pelas empresas em geral, apesar das ferramentas e técnicas existentes. No caso da segurança, existe uma lacuna referente ao modo que as empresas gerenciam a segurança de seus projetos. Assim, a presente dissertação teve como objetivo estudar a aplicabilidade e a importância do gerenciamento de riscos e da segurança para a condução de projetos bem-sucedidos. Foram utilizados como métodos de investigação entrevistas e questionários, os quais possibilitaram obter conhecimentos e opiniões, referentes ao assunto em estudo, de vinte e oito gestores de projetos de diferentes áreas. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o gerenciamento de riscos nem sempre é aplicado nos projetos, apesar dos avanços ocorridos na área. Quanto à segurança, constatou-se que fatores como o tipo de projeto, porte e exigência do cliente determinam sua inserção no ambiente de gerenciamento de projetos. Além disso, observou-se que o gerenciamento de riscos associado à segurança são importantes para a realização de projetos bem-sucedidos, embora sua utilização não ocorra em todos os projetos. Ainda que os resultados tenham mostrado a necessidade de mais treinamentos e estudos adicionais para auxiliar no entendimento e aplicação do gerenciamento de riscos e da segurança, ficou constatado que os gestores possuem consciência da importância da aplicação destes durante o desenvolvimento de seus projetos. Isto representa um progresso na direção de uma mudança cultural nas organizações. / Risk management and safety are important aspects to be considered during projects development. However, the first is used too little by companies in general, despite of the tools and techniques already developed. In the case of safety, exists a gap about the way enterprises management it in their projects. Thus, the present essay had to objective study the applicability and importance of risk management and safety to projects success. Interviews and questionary were conducted, which allowed to obtain knowledge and opinions concerned to subject in study of twenty and eight project managers from different areas. The results evidenced that risk management is not always applied in the projects, although the advances occurred in the area. In relation to safety, it was verified that factors like project’s type, size and customer requirements determine the insertion of safety in the project management. In the same time, it was found out that risk management associated with safety are important to project success, even so it is not applied in all projects developed. Moreover, the results have indicated the need for more training and additional studies to help understanding the usage of risk management and safety tools and techniques, it was found out that managers are aware of importance to consider its use during the projects development. This denotes a progress in the direction of a cultural change in the organizations.

O gerenciamento de riscos e a segurança são aspectos importantes a serem considerados na elaboração de projetos. No entanto, o primeiro é pouco utilizado pelas empresas em geral, apesar das ferramentas e técnicas existentes. No caso da segurança, existe uma lacuna referente ao modo que as empresas gerenciam a segurança de seus projetos. Assim, a presente dissertação teve como objetivo estudar a aplicabilidade e a importância do gerenciamento de riscos e da segurança para a condução de projetos bem-sucedidos. Foram utilizados como métodos de investigação entrevistas e questionários, os quais possibilitaram obter conhecimentos e opiniões, referentes ao assunto em estudo, de vinte e oito gestores de projetos de diferentes áreas. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram que o gerenciamento de riscos nem sempre é aplicado nos projetos, apesar dos avanços ocorridos na área. Quanto à segurança, constatou-se que fatores como o tipo de projeto, porte e exigência do cliente determinam sua inserção no ambiente de gerenciamento de projetos. Além disso, observou-se que o gerenciamento de riscos associado à segurança são importantes para a realização de projetos bem-sucedidos, embora sua utilização não ocorra em todos os projetos. Ainda que os resultados tenham mostrado a necessidade de mais treinamentos e estudos adicionais para auxiliar no entendimento e aplicação do gerenciamento de riscos e da segurança, ficou constatado que os gestores possuem consciência da importância da aplicação destes durante o desenvolvimento de seus projetos. Isto representa um progresso na direção de uma mudança cultural nas organizações. / Risk management and safety are important aspects to be considered during projects development. However, the first is used too little by companies in general, despite of the tools and techniques already developed. In the case of safety, exists a gap about the way enterprises management it in their projects. Thus, the present essay had to objective study the applicability and importance of risk management and safety to projects success. Interviews and questionary were conducted, which allowed to obtain knowledge and opinions concerned to subject in study of twenty and eight project managers from different areas. The results evidenced that risk management is not always applied in the projects, although the advances occurred in the area. In relation to safety, it was verified that factors like project’s type, size and customer requirements determine the insertion of safety in the project management. In the same time, it was found out that risk management associated with safety are important to project success, even so it is not applied in all projects developed. Moreover, the results have indicated the need for more training and additional studies to help understanding the usage of risk management and safety tools and techniques, it was found out that managers are aware of importance to consider its use during the projects development. This denotes a progress in the direction of a cultural change in the organizations.

Orientador: Ricardo Dahab / Dissertação (mestrado profissional) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-07T00:08:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Oliveira_VivianeLucianade_M.pdf: 1641602 bytes, checksum: 1c2e225f8c446b0eb8a478365e5fff23 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: O Gerenciamento de Risco de TI têm se tornado uma preocupação constante das organizações, em função da importância que o ambiente tecnológico passou a representar para o negócio das empresas ao longo das últimas décadas. Concomitantemente, cada vez mais as empresas têm de estar aderentes às regulamentações externas que afetam o nicho de mercado em que estão inseridas. O Gerenciamento do Risco, em particular, é um requerimento sujeito a essas regras. Entender e tratar adequadamente tais riscos, visando minimizar impactos negativos nas operações das organizações é o principal objetivo do processo de Gerenciamento de Risco de TI. A escolha de uma boa metodologia de Gerenciamento de Risco de TI, adaptada às necessidades da organização, é um dos requisitos chaves para o sucesso deste processo. Nessa dissertação discutiremos todo o conceito relacionado ao tema Gerenciamento de Risco de TI, e compararemos três metodologias de Gerenciamento de Risco de TI amplamente utilizadas / Abstract: Information Technology. (IT) Risk Management has become a continuous concem for organizations due to the increasing importance technology has had to business over the past few decades. Simultaneously, more and more companies need to be compliant with external regulatory roles which affect the market where they act. Risk management, in particular, is a requirement subject to those roles. To understand, and properly treat, IT related risks in order to minimize negative impacts in an organization's operations is the main objective of the IT Risk Management processo Choosing a good methodology, adapted to the company's needs, is one of the key requirements for the success of this processo In this work, the conceptual background of IT Risk Management is discussed and three widely used IT Risk Management methodologies are discussed and compared. / Mestrado / Metodologia e Tecnicas da Computação / Mestre em Computação

Certain new realities, such as the liberalisation of the skies and increased air traffic in South Africa are bound to test the existing safety strategies, regulations and maintenance of standards. In order to obtain a picture of the future architecture and the standard of aviation safety in South Africa, the mental models of stakeholders in the industry were investigated in a qualitative, study. A qualitative interpretive research design was followed. The research question was: What are the mental models of key stakeholders in the aviation safety environment and how does this need to be accounted for in the development of an aviation safety strategy, in a Southern African context? In order to obtain a broad spectrum of the social constructs of key stakeholders with regard to aviation safety and to enhance the trustworthiness of the information, three research interventions or information gathering processes were applied. These were the individual interviews through Kelly’s Repertory Grid (Rep Grid) technique, outcomes analysis of the job of a safety manager through a focus group process and a scenario development process (in this sequence). Data was then considered in relation to certain theoretical perspectives, as well as realities in the aviation safety environment in Southern Africa. The study identified pertinent gaps between the mental models elicited from research participants during individual interventions and those elicited during group interventions, as well as a disparity between their mental models and the demands of the aviation safety environment in Southern Africa and the international community. The participants’ individual mental models (or theories in use) focused more on micro systems and symptoms of “unsafety” than the broader systemic relationships and problems. Tendencies towards silo-thinking and single loop learning were indicated. In contrast with the individual mental models, the collective or shared mental models of the participants, elicited during group interventions, represented a more systemic view and a more effective or desired model with regard to aviation safety. The broader system together with its interrelated elements, entropy and unpredictability, as well as critical elements that need to be accounted for in an aviation strategy, were identified. These were, amongst others, effective coordinated regulation and safety oversight on national and regional level; risk management; international recognition; legitimacy; authorisation and market access for airlines; maintenance of standards; international cooperation; and training. It also became clear that safety cannot be understood and managed by focussing on Newtonian laws without a proper appreciation of human factors. Other important perspectives that were identified are the need for the establishment of a study-field for aviation psychology and effective human factors training; as well as the need for a regional regulatory function in Southern Africa. / Prof.J.S Uys

M.Com. (Business Management) / This study concerns itself with the concepts of strategy, risk management and risk appetite. Strategy and risk management playa very important role in any business, but it is very difficult to determine the interrelationship between strategy and risk. There is no scientific/academic proof and there is no model or framework on what the alignment between an organisation's strategy and risk appetite is. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a risk appetite model to align an organisation's strategy and risk management, so that management will be able to improve its decision-making. The research design is based on a qualitative evaluation of the various literature concepts on strategy, risk management and risk appetite. Furthermore, personal interviews were held with senior risk, strategy and financial managers in the South African financial services industry to test the risk appetite model and determine the relevance and robustness of the risk appetite model. The main findings of this study revealed that: • to take full advantage of business opportunities, risk management and strategy cannot operate independently in any organisation; they must be integrated or at least linked with one another; • risk appetite is an important concept on its own, but is even more crucial as the link between risk management and strategy; • most financial services organisations assume that there is a link between risk management, strategy and risk appetite but that there is no formal processor framework available to link the three concepts; • effective risk management enables financial services organisations to achieve a competitive advantage, which is achieved by optimising risks and rewards; and • organisations that probably will withstand future crises are those with appropriate enterprise risk management practices in place where risk and strategy are linked with each other; and the risk appetite model can play an important role in achieving this goal. The main conclusion is that the risk appetite model is the formal framework to integrate risk management with strategy, because the model: • takes a holistic view to risk management; • allows all employees at all levels to understand risk appetite because it is quantitative and not too mathematical; • utilises risk appetite as the "gel" to link strategy and risk management; • allows for measured decision-making and proper governing; • allows organisations to be proactive in their risk management; • takes the upside and downside of risk into consideration; • gives strategic direction to the business; and • addresses all the important steps to integrate risk management, risk appetite and strategy. Lastly, for the risk appetite model to be successful it is essential to: • have buy-in from everyone in the organisation; • have the right governance in place to ensure the effective implementation and communication of the organisation's risk appetite; and • continuously monitor the organisation's risk appetite.