Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Masters of Management Sciences Business Administration, Durban University of Technology. Durban, South Africa, 2017. / The discipline of corporate finance has undergone numerous transformations over the past two-and-a-half decades. One such change has been in the area of corporate finance. Driven by certain behavioral biases, it has been observed that managers sometimes make subjective decisions that do not always follow the norms of traditional corporate finance. One such behavioral influence is overconfidence or optimism. There is a paucity of research on the impact that managerial overconfidence through corporate investments has on the general movement of a company’s share price. This study bridges that gap by investigating the effect of managerial overconfidence on the share price of 10 companies from the JSE/FTSE top 40 index. Its main objective was to inspect the relationship between managerial overconfidence and share price. The results show the presence of managerial overconfidence observed through the investment-cash flow sensitivity of firms. The fixed effects panel regression reveals that Tobin’s Q which is the proxy measure of the investment-cash flow sensitivity of a firm, does affect the share price. Holding every other explanatory variable constant, an increase in Tobin’s Q causes the share price to rise, which leads to the conclusion that managerial overconfidence does have an influences on the stock price. It is further observed that managerial overconfidence tends to increase with firm size. This is shown by the weak positive correlation between the Q ratio and LnTA, and Q ratio and sales. In order to avoid the possible loss in value of a firm caused by an overconfidence manager, it is recommended that shareholders or owners ensure that the manager clearly understands the company’s objectives and vision. Due to the resultant influence of managers’ on the value of a company’s stock, investors should not only look at a company’s past performance, as well as the price earnings ratio (PE ratio), dividend yield, DPS, or any other market value ratios. They should also consider the characteristics of the CEO before making their investment decisions. / M

M.Com. (Financial Economics) / This study investigates the best measure of extreme losses in the South African equity derivatives market, and applies this to estimate the size of a default fund for Safcom, the central counterparty (CCP) for exchange-traded derivatives in South Africa. The predictive abilities of historic simulation Value at Risk (VaR), Conditional VaR (CVaR), Extreme VaR (EVaR) calculated using a Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and stress testing are compared during historic periods of stress in this market. The iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) is applied to identify significant and large, positive shifts in the volatility of returns, thus indicating the start of a stress period. The FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index Future (known as the ALSI future) is used as a proxy for this market. Two key periods of stress are identified, namely the 1997 Asian crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis. The maximum daily losses in the ALSI during these stress periods were observed on 28 October 1997 and 6 October 2008. For the VaR-based loss estimates, 2500 trading days’ returns up to 28 October 1997 and 2750 trading days’ returns up to 6 October 2008 is used. The study finds that Extreme VaR predicts extreme losses during these two historic periods of stress the most accurately and is consequently applied to the quantification of a default fund for Safcom, using 2500 daily returns from 5 June 2003 to 31 May 2013. The EVaR-based estimation of a default fund shows that the current Safcom default fund is sufficient to provide for market losses equivalent to what was suffered during the 2008 global financial crisis, but not sufficient for the magnitude of losses suffered during the 1997 Asian crisis.

Climate change continues to present a major challenge to food security around the world. The potential impact of climate change of rural livelihoods is especially significant as rural communities often rely heavily on natural resources to sustain their livelihoods and, hence, food security. This is applicable to the rural town of Hamburg, on the Eastern Cape coast of South Africa. The Sustainable Rural Livelihoods framework analyses livelihoods in terms of the context, available capitals and institutional framework that determines the livelihood strategies and outcomes for rural households. In terms of livelihood outcomes for Hamburg, it was found that the households have a heavy reliance on state grants in their livelihood portfolios. Natural resources, in the form of agriculture and harvesting of marine organisms, played only a supplementary role in livelihood strategies. Thus, given that climate change would impact negatively on the estuarine resources and the impact on agriculture is unknown as the climate becomes wetter and hotter, the impact on livelihoods and food security would not be significant. However, the sustainability of current livelihood strategies is questionable as grants, by their very nature, or unsustainable and therefore can result in vulnerability and food insecurity in the long-run for households. It is recommended that grants should be issued within the community, instead of in the distant town of Peddie, to help develop the local economy and reduce leakages. This would allow for diversification of livelihood strategies in Hamburg. In addition, government support through extension officers should be extended to Hamburg to assist in developing the local agriculture sector

M.Phil (Sport Management) / Physical Education and sport has a natural place in education whether the approach is formal or informal. Providing learners with the opportunity to play sport at school and to participate in Physical Education ensure that they receive education that addresses the body, mind and spirit. Participation in sport and physical activities in the education environment involves, next to enjoyment, a range of risks. Unfortunately, incidents of injuries and accidents that could have been prevented do occur. These may lead to allegations ofnegligence on the part of a coach, official or even a spectator. It is an educator's duty to ensure that in all matters pertaining to children, including participation in sport and physical activities, the principle of acting in the best interests of the child must take precedence. Proper safety practices and procedures should be implemented by the educator and the school in order to prevent injuries. Risk management is one of the methods by which sport educators can provide the safest possible environment for their participants. This is necessary not only to comply with legal requirements but also to demonstrate sound educational principles that support learnercentered education. This study sought to identify the key problems surrounding the safety of learners engaged in physical activities in the context of sport, Physical Education and recreation in South African independent schools. It analyzed the .qualifications and experience of sport and Physical Education teachers as well as educators' knowledge of risk management practices. An assessment was made about the extent to which risk management procedures were implemented in various schools in order to prevent injuries from occurring.. The study was conducted from a positivistic paradigm and the design comprised a survey. The primary data was gathered by the use of a questionnaire. Secondary data was obtained using literature studies describing risk management, the law in sport and education as well as the management ofsport in schools. The study has established that in general, safety practices and procedures at independent schools in Gauteng are implemented in a prudent and responsible manner. In some schools and with some aspects improvements can still be made but the overall status appears professional and promising. It has been established that independent schools demonstrate good practice with regard to the aspects of insurance, safety measures, supervision of staff members and learners, instruction, equipment, facilities, policies and procedures...

The study explores pausing in action is, within the ambit of Strategy-as-practice (s-ap) as an emergent school of thought. Pausing is thus discerned during the implementation phase of the strategy of a credit risk system within a South African bank, as strategy is known to take shape during implementation. Different sites of the bank’s systems – change, strategy practitioners, and their times of pausing, form the unit of analysis. Strategy-making and engagement are explored by understanding the influence of pausing on enabling or disenabling the strategic outcome of the risk system. Pausing is situated in an applied and theoretical gap as an intangible under-theorised strategy practice. Practitioners, as champions or non-champions of strategy, pause in various ways, and attribute meaning to this ‘action’. Their account of pausing is recognised for its value-adding or diminishing dimensions to strategy-making. The study follows a comprehensive literature review which shows limited theoretical positions on embodied, latent practices, such as pausing, as strategic practices. The body of knowledge provides a challenge for scholars to consider perceived ‘silences’ or the ‘receding’ of strategists as un-remarked dimensions of strategy, which could nevertheless be instrumental in the nature of the strategic outcome. The contribution of the current study identifies pausing as a strategic practice, especially when considered within the structure of engagement and social learning / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management)

The maturity transformation of deposits is a primary driver of economic growth, as loans enable borrowers to spend funds, thereby growing the economy. However, if borrowers cannot repay their loans, the asset quality of banks deteriorate, resulting in non-performing loans or, worse, an economic crisis. An understanding of how macroeconomic and microeconomic determinants impact bank asset quality in South Africa can contribute to knowledge of the bank asset quality phenomenon in the African context. Due to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the introduction of new legislation and the value of gold exports, the South African economy presents an opportunity to make an original contribution to the knowledge of determinants that influence bank asset quality. In addition to studying bank asset quality determinants that are contested in research, this study also aims to determine whether a superior returns determinant of non-performing loans exists when comparing a bank’s profitability determinants, namely return on assets, return on equity and interest income on loans. This study applied panel data regression analysis, making use of a balanced panel approach, to study the determinants of bank asset quality. This approach recontextualises the existing bank asset quality theory for the South African financial sector. The results indicate that South Africa is not resilient against the impact of global financial crises trickling through international trade linkages and that regulatory changes do not instantly improve bank asset quality, and may even reduce the short-term asset quality. Moreover, bank asset quality in South Africa is sensitive to the total value of gold exports. It is evident from the profitability measures that the interest income on loans is the most suitable profitability measure of bank asset quality. This study provides an original contribution to bank asset quality determinants and recommends that regulators should pre-emptively determine the impact of new legislation on bank asset quality. Furthermore, interest income on loans as a profitability measure provides the most accurate results. Lastly, a single-country bank asset quality analysis is important, especially for economies that have commodity exports that significantly weigh in on the bank asset mix. / Die termyntransformasie rakende deposito's is die primêre dryfkrag vir groei in die ekonomie: Lenings maak dit vir leners moontlik om fondse te bestee, wat die ekonomie laat groei. Indien hierdie leners hul lenings egter nie kan terugbetaal nie, gaan die gehalte van bankbates agteruit, wat tot wanpresterende lenings of, nog erger, tot 'n ekonomiese krisis kan lei. As begryp kan word hoe makro-ekonomiese en mikro-ekonomiese bepalende faktore op die gehalte van bankbates in Suid-Afrika inwerk, kan dit bydra tot kennis van die verskynsel van bankbategehalte in die Afrika-konteks. In die lig van die 2008/2009 wêreldwye finansiële krisis, die uitvaardiging van nuwe wetgewing en die waarde van gouduitvoere bied die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie ’n geleentheid om ’n oorspronklike bydrae te lewer tot kennis van die bepalende faktore wat bankbategehalte beïnvloed. Benewens die bestudering van die bepalende faktore van die gehalte van bankbates wat in navorsing redelik omstrede is, het hierdie studie ten doel om, wanneer 'n bank se winsgewendheidsbepalers, naamlik opbrengs op bates, opbrengs op ekwiteit (eiekapitaal) en rente-inkomste op lenings, met mekaar vergelyk word, vas te stel of daar ’n superieure opbrengsbepaler van wanpresterende lenings bestaan. Vir hierdie studie is ’n regressieontleding van paneeldata uitgevoer, en daar is van ’n gebalanseerde paneelbenadering gebruik gemaak om die bepalende faktore van bankbategehalte te bestudeer. Hierdie benadering herkontekstualiseer die bestaande bankbategehalteteorie vir die Suid-Afrikaanse finansiële sektor. Die resultate van die studie dui daarop dat Suid-Afrika nie veerkragtig is om die uitwerking van wêreldwye finansiële krisisse teen te werk wat met internasionale handelskakelings deursyfer nie en dat reguleringsveranderinge nie dadelik die bankbategehalte verbeter nie; dit kan inteendeel die korttermynbategehalte verlaag. Bowendien is die bankbategehalte in Suid-Afrika gevoelig vir die totale waarde van gouduitvoere. Dit blyk uit die winsgewendheidsmaatstawwe dat die rente-inkomste op lenings die mees geskikte winsgewendheidsmaatstaf van bankbategehalte is. Hierdie studie lewer ’n oorspronklike bydrae tot die bepalers van bankbategehalte en beveel aan dat reguleerders vooruit reeds die uitwerking van nuwe wetgewing op bankbategehalte moet bepaal. Daarby voorsien rente-inkomste op lenings as winsgewendheidsmaatstaf die akkuraatste resultate. Laastens is ’n ontleding van ’n enkele land se bankbategehalte van belang, in die besonder vir ekonomieë met kommoditeitsuitvoere wat beduidend tot die samestelling van bankbates bydra. / Kadimo ya nako ye kopana ya ditipositi ke mokgwa wo bohlokwa wa kgolo ya ekonomi, ka ge dikadimo di dumelela baadimi go šomiša matlotlo, go realo e le go godiša ekonomi. Efela, ge baadimi ba sa kgone go lefela dikadimo tša bona, boleng bja thoto ya dipanka bo a phuhlama, go feleletša go e ba le dikadimo tše di sa šomego gabotse goba, go feta fao, phuhlamo ya ekonomi. Kwešišo ya ka fao ditaetšo tša makroekonomi le maekroekonomi di huetšago boleng bja thoto ya panka ka Afrika Borwa e ka ba le seabe go tsebo ya taba ya boleng bja thoto ya panka go ya ka seemo sa Afrika. Ka lebaka la mathata a ditšhelete a lefase a 2008/2009, tsebišo ya molao wo moswa le boleng bja dithomelontle tša gauta, ekonomi ya Afrika Borwa e fa sebaka seabe sa mathomo tsebong ya ditaetšo tšeo di huetšago boleng bja thoto ya panka. Go tlaleletša nyakišišong ya ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka tšeo di ganetšwago nyakišišong, maikemišetšo a nyakišišo ye gape ke go laetša ge eba taetšo ya letseno le legolo la dikadimo tše di sa šomego gabotse di gona ge go bapetšwa ditaetšo tša poelo ya panka, e lego letseno la dithoto, letseno la dišere le letseno la dikadimo. Nyakišišo ye e šomišitše tshekatsheko ya poelomorago ya datha ya phanele, ya go šomiša mokgwa wa phanele wo o lekaneditšwego, go nyakišiša ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka. Mokgwa wa go tšwetšapele gape teori ya boleng bja thoto ya panka ya lekala la Afrika Borwa la ditšhelete. Dipoelo di laetša gore Afrika Borwa ga e fokole kgahlanong le khuetšo ya mathata a ditšhelete a lefase ao a rothelago ka dikamanong tša kgwebišano ya boditšhabatšhaba le gore diphetogo tša taolo ga di kaonafatše boleng bja thoto ya panka ka lebelo, gomme di ka fokotša le boleng bja thoto bja paka ye kopana. Go feta fao, boleng bja thoto ya panka ka Afrika Borwa bo ela hloko boleng bja palomoka bja dithomelontle tša gauta. Go a bonagala go tšwa go dikgato tša tiro ya poelo gore letseno la tswala godimo ga dikadimo ke kgato ya poelo ye maleba gagolo ya boleng bja thoto ya panka. Nyakišišo ye e fa seabe sa mathomo ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka gomme e šišinya gore balaodi ba swanela go laetša e sa le ka pela khuetšo ya molao wo moswa ka ga boleng bja thoto ya panka. Go feta fao, letseno la tswala godimo ga dikadimo bjalo ka kelo ya tiro ya poelo le go fa dipoelo tše di lebanego gabotse. Sa mafelelo, tshekatsheko ya boleng bja thoto ya panka ya naga e tee, kudu diekonomi tšeo di nago le dithomelontle tša ditšweletšwa tšeo gagolo di dumelelago motswako wa thoto ya panka. / Business Management / Ph. D. (Management Studies)

Agriculture is of inestimable value to South Africa because it is a major source of job creation and plays a key role in earning foreign exchange. The most significant contribution of agriculture, and in particular maize, is its ability to provide food for the nation. For a number of decades government legislation determined prices, and as such the trade of grains on the futures exchange requires market participants to adapt to a volatile environment. The research focuses on the ability of market participants to effectively mitigate price volatility on the futures exchange through the use of derivative instruments, and the possibility of developing risk management strategies that will outperform the return offered by the market. The study shows that market participants are unable to use derivative instruments in such a way that price volatility is minimised. The findings of the study also indicate that the development of derivative risk management strategies could result in better returns than those offered by the market, mainly by exploiting trends on the futures market. / Financial Accounting / M. Comm. (Business Management)

Threats to computerised information systems are always on the rise and compel organisations to invest a lot of money and time amongst other technical controls in an attempt to protect their critical information from inherent security risks. The computerisation of information systems in secondary schools has effectively exposed these organisations to a host of complex information security challenges that they have to deal with in addition to their core business of teaching and learning. Secondary schools handle large volumes of sensitive information pertaining to educators, learners, creditors and financial records that they are obliged to secure. Computerised information systems are vulnerable to both internal and external threats but ease of access sometimes manifest in security breaches, thereby undermining information security. Unfortunately, school managers and users of computerised information systems are ignorant of the risks to their information systems assets and the consequences of the compromises that might occur thereof. One way of educating school managers and users about the risks to their computerised information systems is through a risk management programme in which they actively participate. However, secondary schools do not have the full capacity to perform information security risk management exercises due to the unavailability of risk management experts and scarce financial resources to fund such programmes. This qualitative case study was conducted in two secondary schools that use computerised information systems to support everyday administrative operations. The main objective of this research study was to assist secondary schools that used computerised information systems to develop a set of guidelines they would use to effectively manage information security risks in their computerised information systems. This study educated school managers and computerised information systems users on how to conduct simple risk management exercises. The Operationally Critical Threats, Assets and Vulnerability Evaluation for small-scale organisations risk management method was used to evaluate the computerised information systems in the two schools and attain the goals of the research study. Data for this study were generated through participatory observation, physical inspections and interview techniques. Data were presented, analysed and interpreted qualitatively. This study found that learners‟ continuous assessment marks, financial information, educators‟ personal information, custom application software, server-computers and telecommunication equipment used for networking were the critical assets. The main threats to these critical assets were authorised and unauthorised systems users, malware, system crashes, access paths and incompatibilities in software. The risks posed by these threats were normally led to the unavailability of critical information systems assets, compromise of data integrity and confidentiality. This also led to the loss of productivity and finance, and damage to school reputation. The only form of protection mechanism enforced by secondary schools was physical security. To mitigate the pending risks, the study educated school managers and users in selecting, devising and implementing simple protection and mitigation strategies commensurate with their information systems, financial capabilities and their level of skills. This study also recommended that secondary schools remove all critical computers from open-flow school networks, encrypt all critical information, password-protect all computers holding critical information and train all users of information systems of personal security. The study will be instrumental in educating school managers and computerised information systems users in information security awareness and risk management in general. / Science Engineering and Technology / M.Sc. (Information Systems)

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Fidentia became an active player in the South African financial services industry in 2005, only a few years since its inception. This was achieved through aggressive take-overs and a favourable public image boosted by employing known sports personalities and sponsorships of various sports teams, charities and other events. The Fidentia group seemed to go from strength to strength under the leadership of Mr. Arthur Brown assisted by his senior management team of which none more prominent than Mr. Graham Maddock. The group’s main business is Fidentia Asset Management (FAM) which, during 2003 and 2004, secured two of the biggest clients in Fidentia’s history. In 2003 the Transport Education Training Authority (TETA) invested R200,3 million and R1,2 billion of the Mineworkers Provident Fund was placed under its’ management in 2004. The Fidentia group was placed under final curatorship on 27 March 2007, based on reports by the then provisional curators and the Financial Services Board which claimed that their inspectors could not trace R680 million of almost R2 billion under the management of FAM. The analysis of the unfolding Fidentia case will show that without proper strategic planning and management, as well as adherence to suggestions on good corporate governance stakeholders’ risk exposure can be increased. NOTE: The information available till end August was analysed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Fidentia was teen 2005 ‘n aktiewe speler in die Suid-Afrikaanse finansiële dienste industrie, slegs ‘n paar jaar nadat dit gestig is. Dit is bereik deur aggresiewe oornames en ‘n publieke beeld wat versterk is deur bekende sportpersoonlikhede aan te stel en verskeie sportspanne, liefdadigheidsorganisasies en ander gebeurlikhede te borg. Die Fidentia groep het skynbaar van krag tot krag gegaan onder die leierskap van Mnr. Arthur Brown, ondersteun deur sy senior bestuurspan waarvan niemand meer prominent as Mnr. Graham Maddock. Die groep se hoofbesigheid is Fidentia Asset Management (FAM) wat gedurende 2003 tot 2004 twee van die grootste kliënte in Fidentia se geskiedenis verseker het. Gedurende 2003 het die “Transport Education Training Authority (TETA)” R200,3 miljoen by FAM belê en R1,2 biljoen van die “Mineworkers Provident Fund” is in 2004 onder FAM se bestuur geplaas. Die Fidentia group is op 27 Maart 2007 onder finale kuratorskap geplaas gebasseer op verslae deur die destydse voorlopige kurators en die Finansiële Dienste Raad wat beweer het dat hul inspekteure nie R680 miljoen van die amper R2 biljoen onder FAM se bestuur kon opspoor nie. Die analise van die Fidentia saak soos dit ontvou, sal wys dat sonder behoorlike strategiese beplanning en bestuur, asook die voldoening aan voorstelle van goeie korporatiewe bestuur belanghebbendes se blootstelling aan risiko kan verhoog. NOTA: Die inligting beskikbaar tot einde Augustus 2007 is ontleed.

Threats to computerised information systems are always on the rise and compel organisations to invest a lot of money and time amongst other technical controls in an attempt to protect their critical information from inherent security risks. The computerisation of information systems in secondary schools has effectively exposed these organisations to a host of complex information security challenges that they have to deal with in addition to their core business of teaching and learning. Secondary schools handle large volumes of sensitive information pertaining to educators, learners, creditors and financial records that they are obliged to secure. Computerised information systems are vulnerable to both internal and external threats but ease of access sometimes manifest in security breaches, thereby undermining information security. Unfortunately, school managers and users of computerised information systems are ignorant of the risks to their information systems assets and the consequences of the compromises that might occur thereof. One way of educating school managers and users about the risks to their computerised information systems is through a risk management programme in which they actively participate. However, secondary schools do not have the full capacity to perform information security risk management exercises due to the unavailability of risk management experts and scarce financial resources to fund such programmes. This qualitative case study was conducted in two secondary schools that use computerised information systems to support everyday administrative operations. The main objective of this research study was to assist secondary schools that used computerised information systems to develop a set of guidelines they would use to effectively manage information security risks in their computerised information systems. This study educated school managers and computerised information systems users on how to conduct simple risk management exercises. The Operationally Critical Threats, Assets and Vulnerability Evaluation for small-scale organisations risk management method was used to evaluate the computerised information systems in the two schools and attain the goals of the research study. Data for this study were generated through participatory observation, physical inspections and interview techniques. Data were presented, analysed and interpreted qualitatively. This study found that learners‟ continuous assessment marks, financial information, educators‟ personal information, custom application software, server-computers and telecommunication equipment used for networking were the critical assets. The main threats to these critical assets were authorised and unauthorised systems users, malware, system crashes, access paths and incompatibilities in software. The risks posed by these threats were normally led to the unavailability of critical information systems assets, compromise of data integrity and confidentiality. This also led to the loss of productivity and finance, and damage to school reputation. The only form of protection mechanism enforced by secondary schools was physical security. To mitigate the pending risks, the study educated school managers and users in selecting, devising and implementing simple protection and mitigation strategies commensurate with their information systems, financial capabilities and their level of skills. This study also recommended that secondary schools remove all critical computers from open-flow school networks, encrypt all critical information, password-protect all computers holding critical information and train all users of information systems of personal security. The study will be instrumental in educating school managers and computerised information systems users in information security awareness and risk management in general. / Science Engineering and Technology / M. Sc. (Information Systems)