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Experimental Investigation Of Aerodynamic Interactions Of Vehicles In Close Folowing And Passing SituationsGumusluol, Unsal 01 June 2006 (has links) (PDF)
In this Thesis study, aerodynamic interactions of vehicle models in close following and passing situations were investigated expeimentally. Effect of the inter-vehicle spacing and lateral distance on drag coefficients of two close-following vehicles were observed. Two different types of vehicle models were used in order to investigate the shape effect on aerodynamic vehicle interactions. Drag froces and surface pressures of the models at each situation were measured. Two different blockage correction methods on the basis of drag coefficient results were applied. Linear increments of drag coefficients were observed on leading and trailing MIRA models. Beacuse of their blunter shapes and sharp edges, the leading and trailing Ahmed Body models feel the presence of aerodynamic interactions substantially. The most important reduction in drag force occurs at the least vehicle spacing for both vehicle types. In the passing situations, it was observed that drag coefficients of MIRA models did not change considerably. However, big amount of changes were observed at all positions for Ahmed Body. Maximum values of drag coefficients were reached when the models were at side by side position for both vehicle types. In conclusion, it is possible to obtain more drag reductions with more numbers of vehicles in close-following. the lower drag coefficients in close-following operations caues to increase fuel savings and to reduce air pollution.
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Modeling water quality impacts of off-road vehicles in forested watershedsBrodbeck, Christian John, McDonald, Timothy P. Brown, D. A. January 2005 (has links) (PDF)
Thesis(M.S.)--Auburn University, 2005. / Abstract. Vita. Includes bibliographic references (p.86-89).
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Representação do tráfego de veículos rodoviários de carga através de espectros de carga por eixo e seu efeito no desempenho dos pavimentos / Representation of road vehicle traffic load through axle load spectra and its effect on the pavement performanceFontenele, Heliana Barbosa 31 January 2012 (has links)
A caracterização das cargas do tráfego é de grande importância para o dimensionamento de pavimentos, bem como para a quantificação do desempenho para fins de gerência de pavimentos. A utilização de abordagens empíricas para determinar os efeitos das cargas do tráfego nas estruturas de pavimentos, datadas dos anos 1960, apresentam sérias limitações, pois seus resultados são válidos somente para os mesmos, ou muito similares, fatores intervenientes que prevaleciam quando do seu desenvolvimento. Os fatores relativos às solicitações do tráfego e às características dos veículos (tipo de eixo, tipo de rodagem, pressão de enchimento dos pneus e tipo de suspensão) são bem diferentes, atualmente, daquelas existentes há 50 anos. Tendo em vista que os modelos de desempenho são importantes ferramentas dos sistemas de gerência de pavimentos (SGP) para prever a evolução da condição ao longo do tempo e/ou tráfego acumulado e, portanto, dependentes de uma consistente caracterização do tráfego, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar os efeitos da caracterização do tráfego sobre o desempenho dos pavimentos, a partir da geração de modelos estatísticos baseados no conceito proposto pelo método da AASHTO 2002, de espectros de carga por eixo dos veículos comerciais de carga, comparando-os com o conceito de equivalência de carga, desenvolvido a partir do AASHO Road Test na década de 1950. Dados de pesagens realizadas no ano de 2008 no Posto de Pesagem de Veículos da SP-160 Rodovia dos Imigrantes, km 28, pista Sul, foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento dos espectros de carga e posterior modelagem. Testes estatísticos e práticos foram realizados para determinar a variabilidade mensal dos Fatores de Veículos (FV) em relação ao valor médio do ano de 2008. Apesar da análise estatística com a aplicação do teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) ter apresentado diferenças significativas entre os espectros mensais e anuais, a variação observada nos fatores de tráfego não resultou em diferenças práticas na espessura final do pavimento. Os modelos estatísticos foram desenvolvidos separadamente para cada classe de veículo e de eixos que o compunha, tendo sido usadas distribuições de probabilidade Log-normal e Weibull para modelar os espectros de carga. Os parâmetros dos modelos foram obtidos através do método dos mínimos quadrados, complementado com a realização de testes K-S e Qui-quadrado, destacando-se a obtenção de coeficientes de determinação (R2) superiores a 0,90. A comparação entre os resultados previstos pelos modelos e os dados originais, feita tanto pela abordagem empírica como empírico-mecanística, com uso dos programas computacionais ELSYM5 e MEPDG, evidencia o modelo Weibull como o mais indicado para aplicação em rodovias brasileiras com características de tráfego semelhantes às da Rodovia dos Imigrantes. / The characterization of traffic loads is of great importance for pavement design, as well as for the measurement of performance in a pavement management system. The use of empirical approaches to determine the effects of traffic load on pavement structures, dating from the 1960\'s, presents serious limitations, since its results are just valid for the same or very similar intervening factors that prevailed at the time of its development. The traffic load factors and vehicle characteristics (axle type, tire type, tire inflation pressure, and suspension type) are quite different today from those existing 50 years ago. Given that the performance models are important tools of pavement management systems (PMS) to predict the evolution of pavement condition over time and/or accumulated traffic and therefore dependent on a consistent characterization of the traffic, the objective of this research was to analyze the effects of traffic characteristics on pavement performance through the generation of statistical models based on the concept proposed by the AASHTO 2002 method, axle load spectra of commercial vehicles, comparing them with the concept of load equivalence factor, developed through the AASHO Road Test in the 1950s. Data collected in 2008 in a weighing station located on Immigrant Highway - SP-160, km 28, southern runway, were used for the development of load spectra and subsequent modeling. Practical and statistical tests were performed to determine the variability of monthly vehicle-factors (FV) to the mean value for the year 2008. Despite the statistical analysis, performed by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, have shown significant differences between the monthly and annual spectra variation, there were not practical differences in the final thickness of the pavement associated to changes in vehicle-factors. Statistical models were developed for each vehicle class and for its axles, having been used Log-normal and Weibull probability distributions to model the load spectra. The model parameters were obtained from the method of least squares, complemented by the KS and chi-square tests, being important to mention that the coefficients of determination (R2) were greater than 0.90. The comparison between the results predicted by the models and the original data, made either by empirical and empiricalmechanistic approaches, with use of computer programs ELSYM5 and MEPDG, shows that the Weibull model is the most suitable for application in Brazilian highways with similar traffic characteristics to the Immigrants Highway.
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Representação do tráfego de veículos rodoviários de carga através de espectros de carga por eixo e seu efeito no desempenho dos pavimentos / Representation of road vehicle traffic load through axle load spectra and its effect on the pavement performanceHeliana Barbosa Fontenele 31 January 2012 (has links)
A caracterização das cargas do tráfego é de grande importância para o dimensionamento de pavimentos, bem como para a quantificação do desempenho para fins de gerência de pavimentos. A utilização de abordagens empíricas para determinar os efeitos das cargas do tráfego nas estruturas de pavimentos, datadas dos anos 1960, apresentam sérias limitações, pois seus resultados são válidos somente para os mesmos, ou muito similares, fatores intervenientes que prevaleciam quando do seu desenvolvimento. Os fatores relativos às solicitações do tráfego e às características dos veículos (tipo de eixo, tipo de rodagem, pressão de enchimento dos pneus e tipo de suspensão) são bem diferentes, atualmente, daquelas existentes há 50 anos. Tendo em vista que os modelos de desempenho são importantes ferramentas dos sistemas de gerência de pavimentos (SGP) para prever a evolução da condição ao longo do tempo e/ou tráfego acumulado e, portanto, dependentes de uma consistente caracterização do tráfego, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi analisar os efeitos da caracterização do tráfego sobre o desempenho dos pavimentos, a partir da geração de modelos estatísticos baseados no conceito proposto pelo método da AASHTO 2002, de espectros de carga por eixo dos veículos comerciais de carga, comparando-os com o conceito de equivalência de carga, desenvolvido a partir do AASHO Road Test na década de 1950. Dados de pesagens realizadas no ano de 2008 no Posto de Pesagem de Veículos da SP-160 Rodovia dos Imigrantes, km 28, pista Sul, foram utilizados para o desenvolvimento dos espectros de carga e posterior modelagem. Testes estatísticos e práticos foram realizados para determinar a variabilidade mensal dos Fatores de Veículos (FV) em relação ao valor médio do ano de 2008. Apesar da análise estatística com a aplicação do teste Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) ter apresentado diferenças significativas entre os espectros mensais e anuais, a variação observada nos fatores de tráfego não resultou em diferenças práticas na espessura final do pavimento. Os modelos estatísticos foram desenvolvidos separadamente para cada classe de veículo e de eixos que o compunha, tendo sido usadas distribuições de probabilidade Log-normal e Weibull para modelar os espectros de carga. Os parâmetros dos modelos foram obtidos através do método dos mínimos quadrados, complementado com a realização de testes K-S e Qui-quadrado, destacando-se a obtenção de coeficientes de determinação (R2) superiores a 0,90. A comparação entre os resultados previstos pelos modelos e os dados originais, feita tanto pela abordagem empírica como empírico-mecanística, com uso dos programas computacionais ELSYM5 e MEPDG, evidencia o modelo Weibull como o mais indicado para aplicação em rodovias brasileiras com características de tráfego semelhantes às da Rodovia dos Imigrantes. / The characterization of traffic loads is of great importance for pavement design, as well as for the measurement of performance in a pavement management system. The use of empirical approaches to determine the effects of traffic load on pavement structures, dating from the 1960\'s, presents serious limitations, since its results are just valid for the same or very similar intervening factors that prevailed at the time of its development. The traffic load factors and vehicle characteristics (axle type, tire type, tire inflation pressure, and suspension type) are quite different today from those existing 50 years ago. Given that the performance models are important tools of pavement management systems (PMS) to predict the evolution of pavement condition over time and/or accumulated traffic and therefore dependent on a consistent characterization of the traffic, the objective of this research was to analyze the effects of traffic characteristics on pavement performance through the generation of statistical models based on the concept proposed by the AASHTO 2002 method, axle load spectra of commercial vehicles, comparing them with the concept of load equivalence factor, developed through the AASHO Road Test in the 1950s. Data collected in 2008 in a weighing station located on Immigrant Highway - SP-160, km 28, southern runway, were used for the development of load spectra and subsequent modeling. Practical and statistical tests were performed to determine the variability of monthly vehicle-factors (FV) to the mean value for the year 2008. Despite the statistical analysis, performed by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, have shown significant differences between the monthly and annual spectra variation, there were not practical differences in the final thickness of the pavement associated to changes in vehicle-factors. Statistical models were developed for each vehicle class and for its axles, having been used Log-normal and Weibull probability distributions to model the load spectra. The model parameters were obtained from the method of least squares, complemented by the KS and chi-square tests, being important to mention that the coefficients of determination (R2) were greater than 0.90. The comparison between the results predicted by the models and the original data, made either by empirical and empiricalmechanistic approaches, with use of computer programs ELSYM5 and MEPDG, shows that the Weibull model is the most suitable for application in Brazilian highways with similar traffic characteristics to the Immigrants Highway.
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Obnova vozového parku zvolené společnosti / Renewal of the fleet in chosen companyČížek, Martin January 2015 (has links)
This Master´s Thesis focuses on the issue of renewal of fleet in Deblice-lesy, s.r.o. company. The aim of this thesis is selection of suitable semitrailer combination for transportation of long timbers and also selection of truck for transportation of ACTS containers for transportation of firewood, which will correspond to the selected criteria. Selection will be realized by using TOPSIS method. Theoretical part focuses on issues of business in road transport, trucks and combinations in road transport and limits of their dimensions and weights. It also describes some methods of multi-criteria decision making. Practical part focuses directly on selection of suitable semitrailer combination for transportation of long timbers and also selection of truck for transportation of ACTS containers according to the defined criteria. One of the aims is also mapping of the market and choices which exist when selecting combination for transportation of long timbers.
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A legislative and biophysical assessment of the regulation of off-road vehicles on South African beaches.Davey, Jennifer. January 2003 (has links)
The legislative management of Off-Road Vehicles (ORVs) on beaches has evolved over a
period of time in response to a range of influences and changing circumstances within the
various social, institutional, economic and biophysical systems.
The impact of ORVs on beaches in South Africa is multifaceted and when viewed holistically
incorporates the interaction between the biophysical, social, economic and institutional
environments. This Study focuses only on the legislative and biophysical environments
associated with the impact of ORVs on beaches.
Sustainable coastal development draws attention to the "process" character of sustainable
development that needs to be worked towards over time in an iterative manner. It highlights
the need to take into account the current reality of prevailing circumstances, the uncertainty of
the future, limited understanding of coastal ecosystems and communities, and the complex
interactions between and within the human and non human components of the environment.
An understanding of the ecological integrity and effective governance dimensions (being the
focus of Study), although only two of the five dimensions of sustainable coastal development,
contributes towards an understanding of the sustainability of the impact of ORVs on beaches
within the South African context.
The legislative environment is investigated from the management perspective of the national
Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism. This Study determines whether effective
governance is being achieved through the ongoing management of the impact of ORVs on
South African beaches. The institutional management at a national level has resulted in the
conditional banning of ORVs from beaches, which has resulted in promoting the ecological
integrity of beaches, therefore contributing towards sustainable coastal development.
The physical system is investigated where appropriate in terms of the biophysical parameters
within which ORVs are managed on beaches within the inter-tidal zone as per the ORV
General Policy (1994). In order to understand the biophysical system within which ORVs are
managed, the existing literature and research concerning the impact of ORVs on beaches is
reviewed, including existing literature on beach geomorphology and beach biota. A Case Study Area was selected for an experimental investigation to determine the biophysical impact of
ORVs on sandy beaches. The experiment was conducted at Leven Point, north of Cape Vidal
situated on the KwaZulu-Natal north coast within the St Lucia Marine Reserve.
The ORV General Policy (1994) has been superseded by the ORV Regulations (2001), which
do not however, specify the biophysical delineation of the management of ORVs on beaches.
This Study has included recommendations applicable to the management of ORVs on beaches
in South Africa in terms of the ORV Regulations (2001). These recommendations advocate
the conservation of the dynamic biophysical environment of the inter-tidal zone on beaches,
and the need to take a sustainable coastal development approach to applications for
Recreational Use Areas (RUAs) in terms of the ORV Regulations (dated 21 December 2001). / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2003.
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Obnova vozového parku silničního dopravce / Road haulier fleet renewalMencl, Jiří January 2013 (has links)
This Master Thesis is focused on the fleet of road haulier and its renewal process. The aim of this thesis is to find the optimal vehicle for fleet with respect to specified criteria. The theoretical part is focused on vehicles in general, the relevant legislative frameworks and technologies used in road freight transport. Furthermore it presents the most important producers of road freight vehicles and the methods of multi-criterial analysis. The practical part focuses on the process of fleet renewal in the Kouba Trans, s.r.o company and particularly on the implementation of author's own analysis leading to the selection of optimal vehicle for this company. The most optimal vehicle is truck Scania R 450 Highline.
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Haul road defect identification and condition assessment using measured truck responseHugo, Daniel 16 July 2008 (has links)
Mine haul road maintenance is traditionally done at scheduled intervals or after regular inspection. Both these methods can lead to unwarranted expenditure, either through over-maintaining the road, or failure to recognise significant deterioration, resulting in an increase in vehicle operating costs. Predictive maintenance management models for unpaved roads have been developed in recent years. These methods work well in a trivial environment where variables such as traffic volume can be predicted. However, many mining systems are too complex for such models to be effective. This work investigates the possibility of using haul truck response to aid haul road maintenance management. The approach adopted for the study was twofold: Firstly, can truck response data be used to recognise specific road defects, in terms of location, type and size? This is important since different defect types require different road maintenance strategies. Secondly, can road roughness be measured on a qualitative basis? With the emphasis on road defect reconstruction, a mathematical modelling approach was adopted. The truck was characterised in terms of its suspension and tyre properties. Dynamic truck response data was acquired during field measurements in which the vehicle was driven over defects of known dimensions. With these data sets available, mathematical modelling and simulation was possible. Quarter vehicle and seven degree of freedom vehicle models played a vital role in this work by laying a foundation in the use of haul truck response for the purpose of road defect reconstruction. A modelling methodology that is based on dynamic equilibrium of an independent front unsprung mass of the truck is proposed in which the vertical dynamic tyre force and eventually the road geometry is calculated. It is shown that defects can be reconstructed from measured truck response data with an accuracy sufficient to fulfil the requirements of defect recognition for road maintenance management purposes. Secondly, a preliminary investigation into the qualitative assessment of road condition via truck response measurements was conducted. The inherent response properties of the truck pertaining to road roughness measurement were studied and some correlation between measured suspension motion and road roughness measured with a high speed profilometer was found. / Dissertation (MEng (Mechanical))--University of Pretoria, 2005. / Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering / MEng / Unrestricted
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Avaliação técnico-econômica das principais tendências e alternativas do transporte rodoviário nacional sob o ponto de vista energético e ambiental / Technical economical evaluation of the main tendencies and alternatives of the Brazilian on-road transportation under energy and environmental perspectivesFigueiredo, Silvio de Andrade 21 October 2013 (has links)
Ferramentas computacionais, baseadas em modelos de inventários, que consigam predizer, com precisão apropriada, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares, principais motivadores do desenvolvimento automotivo atual, são fundamentais para a elaboração de políticas públicas eficazes vinculadas a essas questões. No Brasil, apesar de afetarem significativamente a sociedade, muitas das intervenções governamentais nesse segmento são realizadas sem a adequada avaliação de seus impactos. Isso ocorre ou porque a importância dessas ferramentas nem sempre é reconhecida ou por não se ter ferramentas apropriadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de desenvolver uma ferramenta de prognóstico do consumo de combustíveis e das emissões da frota rodoviária, estatisticamente consistente, que pudesse ser utilizada para esse propósito. Para tanto, inicialmente buscou-se identificar os aspectos relacionados às questões que deveriam ser considerados nesse desenvolvimento, por meio do levantamento das tendências evolutivas e alternativas que estão sendo apresentadas relativas a combustíveis, tecnologia veicular e sistemas de transportes. A seguir foram revistos os principais modelos e ferramentas públicos, nacionais e estrangeiros, dessa natureza. E, diante da constatação que eles não poderiam ser empregados, apesar dos limites impostos pela disponibilidade de dados, foi proposta uma nova abordagem para se atingir esse objetivo. Primeiro foi desenvolvido um conjunto de planilhas integrando todos os dados e cálculos de um modelo bottom-up similar ao utilizado nos inventários de emissões tóxicas nacionais, totalmente interconectado e configurado para facilitar, por meio de um processo iterativo, o ajuste fino das estimativas mais incertas, de forma que os consumos totalizados resultantes do modelo coincidissem tanto quanto possível com os consumos observados no país. A seguir, foram desenvolvidos modelos econométricos, para estimar os consumos totalizados de combustíveis a partir de indicadores econômicos pertinentes. E pela inserção desses modelos econométricos no modelo bottom-up anterior, foi gerado um modelo híbrido que permite inventariar e prognosticar, segregadas por classes, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares. Os consumos de combustíveis obtidos por meio desses modelos, quando comparados com valores observados, forneceram resultados estatisticamente robustos, que podem ser, em algumas condições, convertidos na emissão de CO2. O mesmo não é possível afirmar com relação às demais emissões, inclusive em função da dificuldade de vincular as fontes emissoras a indicadores de qualidade do ar, o que não invalida o uso do modelo híbrido para obtenção de resultados comparativos. Finalmente, os modelos foram submetidos a análise sensibilidade e sua aplicabilidade foi verificada para alguns cenários. / Computational tools, based on inventory models, which are able to predict, with the appropriated accuracy, vehicular fuel consumption and emissions, main current drivers of the automotive development, are essentials for the development of effective public policies related to these issues. In Brazil, despite their significantly influence over the society, many government interventions in this segment are undertaken without the adequate assessment of their impacts. This happen because the importance of these tools is not always recognized or because proper tools are not available. The goal of this study was to develop a statistically consistent prognostic tool of road fuel consumption and emissions, which could be used for this purpose. Initially, by surveying the evolutionary trends and known alternatives related to fuels, vehicular technology and transportation systems, it was examined all the aspects that should be considered for this work. Next it was reviewed the main domestic and foreign public models and tools of this sector. Realizing that they could not be used, due to the limits imposed by data availability, it is proposed a new approach to achieve this goal. First it is developed a set of worksheets integrating all data and calculations of a bottom-up model, similar to the ones used in national inventories of toxic emissions. The set was interconnected and configured to facilitate, through an iterative process, the fine tuning of the uncertain estimates, in such way that the model total consumptions as much as possible reproduce the fuel consumptions observed in the country. Next econometric models were developed to estimate total fuel consumptions based on identified relevant economic indicators. And inserting these econometric models in the previous bottom-up model, it was generated a hybrid model that allows inventorying and forecasting of fuel consumptions and vehicular emissions segregated by classes. When compared with the observed fuel consumptions, these models presented statistically robust results. Under some conditions, these results can be converted in CO2 emissions. The same cannot be said with respect to other emissions, partially due to the difficulty to link emission sources to air quality measurements, which does not invalidate the use of the hybrid model to obtain comparative results for these emissions. Finally, the models were submitted to a sensitivity analysis and their applicability was verified for some scenarios.
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Avaliação técnico-econômica das principais tendências e alternativas do transporte rodoviário nacional sob o ponto de vista energético e ambiental / Technical economical evaluation of the main tendencies and alternatives of the Brazilian on-road transportation under energy and environmental perspectivesSilvio de Andrade Figueiredo 21 October 2013 (has links)
Ferramentas computacionais, baseadas em modelos de inventários, que consigam predizer, com precisão apropriada, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares, principais motivadores do desenvolvimento automotivo atual, são fundamentais para a elaboração de políticas públicas eficazes vinculadas a essas questões. No Brasil, apesar de afetarem significativamente a sociedade, muitas das intervenções governamentais nesse segmento são realizadas sem a adequada avaliação de seus impactos. Isso ocorre ou porque a importância dessas ferramentas nem sempre é reconhecida ou por não se ter ferramentas apropriadas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o de desenvolver uma ferramenta de prognóstico do consumo de combustíveis e das emissões da frota rodoviária, estatisticamente consistente, que pudesse ser utilizada para esse propósito. Para tanto, inicialmente buscou-se identificar os aspectos relacionados às questões que deveriam ser considerados nesse desenvolvimento, por meio do levantamento das tendências evolutivas e alternativas que estão sendo apresentadas relativas a combustíveis, tecnologia veicular e sistemas de transportes. A seguir foram revistos os principais modelos e ferramentas públicos, nacionais e estrangeiros, dessa natureza. E, diante da constatação que eles não poderiam ser empregados, apesar dos limites impostos pela disponibilidade de dados, foi proposta uma nova abordagem para se atingir esse objetivo. Primeiro foi desenvolvido um conjunto de planilhas integrando todos os dados e cálculos de um modelo bottom-up similar ao utilizado nos inventários de emissões tóxicas nacionais, totalmente interconectado e configurado para facilitar, por meio de um processo iterativo, o ajuste fino das estimativas mais incertas, de forma que os consumos totalizados resultantes do modelo coincidissem tanto quanto possível com os consumos observados no país. A seguir, foram desenvolvidos modelos econométricos, para estimar os consumos totalizados de combustíveis a partir de indicadores econômicos pertinentes. E pela inserção desses modelos econométricos no modelo bottom-up anterior, foi gerado um modelo híbrido que permite inventariar e prognosticar, segregadas por classes, o consumo de combustíveis e as emissões veiculares. Os consumos de combustíveis obtidos por meio desses modelos, quando comparados com valores observados, forneceram resultados estatisticamente robustos, que podem ser, em algumas condições, convertidos na emissão de CO2. O mesmo não é possível afirmar com relação às demais emissões, inclusive em função da dificuldade de vincular as fontes emissoras a indicadores de qualidade do ar, o que não invalida o uso do modelo híbrido para obtenção de resultados comparativos. Finalmente, os modelos foram submetidos a análise sensibilidade e sua aplicabilidade foi verificada para alguns cenários. / Computational tools, based on inventory models, which are able to predict, with the appropriated accuracy, vehicular fuel consumption and emissions, main current drivers of the automotive development, are essentials for the development of effective public policies related to these issues. In Brazil, despite their significantly influence over the society, many government interventions in this segment are undertaken without the adequate assessment of their impacts. This happen because the importance of these tools is not always recognized or because proper tools are not available. The goal of this study was to develop a statistically consistent prognostic tool of road fuel consumption and emissions, which could be used for this purpose. Initially, by surveying the evolutionary trends and known alternatives related to fuels, vehicular technology and transportation systems, it was examined all the aspects that should be considered for this work. Next it was reviewed the main domestic and foreign public models and tools of this sector. Realizing that they could not be used, due to the limits imposed by data availability, it is proposed a new approach to achieve this goal. First it is developed a set of worksheets integrating all data and calculations of a bottom-up model, similar to the ones used in national inventories of toxic emissions. The set was interconnected and configured to facilitate, through an iterative process, the fine tuning of the uncertain estimates, in such way that the model total consumptions as much as possible reproduce the fuel consumptions observed in the country. Next econometric models were developed to estimate total fuel consumptions based on identified relevant economic indicators. And inserting these econometric models in the previous bottom-up model, it was generated a hybrid model that allows inventorying and forecasting of fuel consumptions and vehicular emissions segregated by classes. When compared with the observed fuel consumptions, these models presented statistically robust results. Under some conditions, these results can be converted in CO2 emissions. The same cannot be said with respect to other emissions, partially due to the difficulty to link emission sources to air quality measurements, which does not invalidate the use of the hybrid model to obtain comparative results for these emissions. Finally, the models were submitted to a sensitivity analysis and their applicability was verified for some scenarios.
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