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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

The influence of short-term forecast errors in energy storage sizing decisions / Kortsiktiga prognosfels effekt på dimensioneringsbeslut inom energilagring

Bagger Toräng, Adrian, Rönnblom, Viktor January 2022 (has links)
Pumped hydro energy storages commonly plan their operations on short-term forecasts of the upcoming electricity prices, meaning that errors in these forecasts would entail suboptimal operations of the energy storage. Despite the high investment costs of pumped hydro energy storages, few studies take a holistic approach to the uncertainties involved in such investment decisions. The aim of this study is to investigate how forecast errors in electricity prices affect the chosen size configuration in investment decisions for pumped hydro energy storages. Moreover, sizing decisions are made in the long-term and involve long-term uncertainties in electricity prices. A robust decision-making framework including long-term electricity price scenarios is therefore used to evaluate the effects of including forecast errors in the sizing decision. By simulating the day-to-day operation of the energy storage with short-term forecasts, the effects of including the errors are compared to using perfect information. Using this approach, the most robust capacity is shown to increase by 25 MW, from 2 375 MW to 2 400 MW, when including forecast errors instead of assuming perfect information in the simulations. This indicates that the deviations in short-term forecasts require the pumped hydro energy storage operator to be more flexible in their operations, thus requiring a higher capacity. In addition, the profitability of the energy storage decreased significantly when including forecast errors in the simulations, showing the importance of taking the short-term forecast errors into account in sizing and investment decisions of pumped hydro energy storage. / Driften av pumpkraftverk optimeras med hjälp av kortsiktiga prognoser av elpriser, vilket innebär att fel i dessa prognoser leder till suboptimal drift. Trots att investeringar i pumpkraftverk är kostsamma, har få studier ett holistisk synsätt kring osäkerheter i investeringsbeslutet. Målet med denna studie är att undersöka hur kortsiktiga prognosfel i elpriser påverkar den optimala dimensionering av pumpkraftverk. Investeringsbeslut i pumpkraftverk är långsiktiga och kräver estimat av framtida elpriser, vars karakteristik är osäker. Ett ramverk som bygger på robust beslutstagande, med scenarier över framtida elpriser, används därför för att bedöma effekten av att inkludera kortsiktiga prognosfel i investeringsbeslutet. Genom att simulera den dagliga driften av energilager, undersöks effekten av att inkludera prognosfel jämfört med perfekt information. Med detta tillvägagångsätt ökade den mest robusta kapaciteten med 25 MW, från 2 375 MW till 2 400 MW, när prognosfel inkluderades. Detta visar på att fel i kortsiktiga prognoser kräver pumpkraftverket av vara mer flexibelt, vilket ges av höjdkapacitet. Lönsamheten minskade också signifikant när prognosfel inkluderades, vilket visar på vikten av att ta hänsyn till kortsiktiga prognosfel i beslut kring dimensionering och investering av pumpkraftverk.

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