Distributed Rainfall-Runoff models are gaining widespread acceptance; yet, a fundamental issue that must be addressed by all users of these models is definition of an acceptable level of watershed discretization (geometric model complexity). The level of geometric model complexity is a function of basin and climatic scales as well as the availability of input and verification data. Equilibrium discharge storage is employed to develop a quantitative methodology to define a level of geometric model complexity commensurate with a specified level of model performance. Equilibrium storage ratios are used to define the transition from overland to channel -dominated flow response. The methodology is tested on four subcatchments in the USDA -ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in Southeastern Arizona. The catchments cover a range of basins scales of over three orders of magnitude. This enabled a unique assessment of watershed response behavior as a function of basin scale. High quality, distributed, rainfall -runoff data was used to verify the model (KINEROSR). Excellent calibration and verification results provided confidence in subsequent model interpretations regarding watershed response behavior. An average elementary channel support area of roughly 15% of the total basin area is shown to provide a watershed discretization level that maintains model performance for basins ranging in size from 1.5 to 631 hectares. Detailed examination of infiltration, including the role and impacts of incorporating small scale infiltration variability in a distribution sense, into KINEROSR, over a range of soils and climatic scales was also addressed. The impacts of infiltration and channel losses on runoff response increase with increasing watershed scale as the relative influence of storms is diminished in a semiarid environment such as Walnut Gulch. In this semiarid environment, characterized by ephemeral streams, watershed runoff response does not become more linear with increasing watershed scale but appears to become more nonlinear.

Petrobrás / Tubos corrugados têm sido utilizados em vários cenários da engenharia como, por exemplo, em linhas flexíveis de transporte de petróleo no mar, onde sua instalação, manuseio e remoção, tornam o processo mais prático devido sua flexibilidade. Entretanto, escoamentos em tubos corrugados, em geral, estão sujeitos a um aumento da perda de carga, aumento da turbulência e a variações dos padrões de escoamento quando comparados ao escoamento normalmente observado em tubos de seção transversal constante. Nesse cenário, o presente trabalho apresenta um estudo numérico e experimental do escoamento turbulento em tubos corrugados com cavidades helicoidais para diferentes ângulos de hélice (ou passo) e números de Reynolds variando entre 7.500 e 100.000. O escoamento é modelado matematicamente a partir das equações de conservação da massa e do balanço da quantidade de movimento, considerando-se o fluido newtoniano e incompressível. Ao escoamento é aplicado o modelo de turbulência de duas equações Baseline Model. O sistema de equações resultante da modelagem matemática é discretizado utilizando o Método Numérico de Volumes Finitos baseado em Elementos (MVFbE), e resolvido através do programa computacional ANSYS-CFX. Para o estudo experimental, que concerne à medição do fator de atrito em geometrias equivalentes às estudadas numericamente, é realizado utilizando a bancada experimental já existente no LACIT/UTFPR. A partir dos resultados numéricos é proposta uma correlação para o fator de atrito, envolvendo parâmetros geométricos do tubo corrugado e número de Reynolds, com um desvio médio de 0,88%. Além disso, é estudada a influência da parede corrugada no comportamento de propriedades como os campos de velocidade, pressão, tensão e outras propriedades turbulentas. Da última análise, constatou-se que a mudança no padrão de escoamento próximo à cavidade é semelhante entre os aumentos do número de Reynolds e largura da cavidade, não apresentando mudanças qualitativas em respeito à variação do ângulo de hélice. / Corrugated pipes have been used in several branches in the engineering, e.g, in transport flex line of oil in sea, where its installation, handling and remotion, become the process more practice due its flexibility. However, flow in corrugated pipes, in general, are subjects to an increase of drop pressure, an increase in the turbulence and deviations in the flow pattern as compared to the flow usually observed in pipes with constant cross section. In this sense, the present work shows an study both numerically and experimental of turbulent flow in corrugated pipes with helical grooves for different helix angles (or pitch) and Reynolds numbers varying between 7.500 and 100.000. The flow is modeled mathematically by the mass conservation and momentum equations, assuming the fluid is Newtonian and incompressible. To the flow, is applied the turbulence model of two equations, Baseline Model. The system equations resulted from mathematical modelling is discretized by using the element-based finite-volume method approach, and solved through the ANSYS-CFX. For the experimental part, is measured the friction factor in geometries equivalent to those studied numerically, where is performed by using the experimental facilities located in the LACIT/UTFPR. With the experimental data and numerical results, an correlation for friction factor is proposed in function of the geometric parameters of the corrugated pipe and Reynolds number, with an average uncertainty 0.88%. Moreover, is studied the groove's influence in the behavior of properties like fields of pressure, velocity, and stresses among another turbulent parameters. From the last analysis, has shown that the flow pattern near to the grooves follows the same behavior when it increases the Reynolds number and the grooves width, not showing qualitative changes when the helix angle has been changed.

Petrobrás / Tubos corrugados têm sido utilizados em vários cenários da engenharia como, por exemplo, em linhas flexíveis de transporte de petróleo no mar, onde sua instalação, manuseio e remoção, tornam o processo mais prático devido sua flexibilidade. Entretanto, escoamentos em tubos corrugados, em geral, estão sujeitos a um aumento da perda de carga, aumento da turbulência e a variações dos padrões de escoamento quando comparados ao escoamento normalmente observado em tubos de seção transversal constante. Nesse cenário, o presente trabalho apresenta um estudo numérico e experimental do escoamento turbulento em tubos corrugados com cavidades helicoidais para diferentes ângulos de hélice (ou passo) e números de Reynolds variando entre 7.500 e 100.000. O escoamento é modelado matematicamente a partir das equações de conservação da massa e do balanço da quantidade de movimento, considerando-se o fluido newtoniano e incompressível. Ao escoamento é aplicado o modelo de turbulência de duas equações Baseline Model. O sistema de equações resultante da modelagem matemática é discretizado utilizando o Método Numérico de Volumes Finitos baseado em Elementos (MVFbE), e resolvido através do programa computacional ANSYS-CFX. Para o estudo experimental, que concerne à medição do fator de atrito em geometrias equivalentes às estudadas numericamente, é realizado utilizando a bancada experimental já existente no LACIT/UTFPR. A partir dos resultados numéricos é proposta uma correlação para o fator de atrito, envolvendo parâmetros geométricos do tubo corrugado e número de Reynolds, com um desvio médio de 0,88%. Além disso, é estudada a influência da parede corrugada no comportamento de propriedades como os campos de velocidade, pressão, tensão e outras propriedades turbulentas. Da última análise, constatou-se que a mudança no padrão de escoamento próximo à cavidade é semelhante entre os aumentos do número de Reynolds e largura da cavidade, não apresentando mudanças qualitativas em respeito à variação do ângulo de hélice. / Corrugated pipes have been used in several branches in the engineering, e.g, in transport flex line of oil in sea, where its installation, handling and remotion, become the process more practice due its flexibility. However, flow in corrugated pipes, in general, are subjects to an increase of drop pressure, an increase in the turbulence and deviations in the flow pattern as compared to the flow usually observed in pipes with constant cross section. In this sense, the present work shows an study both numerically and experimental of turbulent flow in corrugated pipes with helical grooves for different helix angles (or pitch) and Reynolds numbers varying between 7.500 and 100.000. The flow is modeled mathematically by the mass conservation and momentum equations, assuming the fluid is Newtonian and incompressible. To the flow, is applied the turbulence model of two equations, Baseline Model. The system equations resulted from mathematical modelling is discretized by using the element-based finite-volume method approach, and solved through the ANSYS-CFX. For the experimental part, is measured the friction factor in geometries equivalent to those studied numerically, where is performed by using the experimental facilities located in the LACIT/UTFPR. With the experimental data and numerical results, an correlation for friction factor is proposed in function of the geometric parameters of the corrugated pipe and Reynolds number, with an average uncertainty 0.88%. Moreover, is studied the groove's influence in the behavior of properties like fields of pressure, velocity, and stresses among another turbulent parameters. From the last analysis, has shown that the flow pattern near to the grooves follows the same behavior when it increases the Reynolds number and the grooves width, not showing qualitative changes when the helix angle has been changed.

Climate change and a growing demand for freshwater resources due to population increases and socio-economic changes will make water a limiting factor (in terms of both quantity and quality) in development. The need for reliable quantitative estimates of water availability cannot be over-emphasised. However, there is frequently a paucity of the data required for this quantification as many basins, especially in the developing world, are inadequately equipped with monitoring networks. Existing networks are also shrinking due mainly to shortages in human and financial resources. Over the past few decades mathematical models have been used to bridge the data gap by generating datasets for use in management and policy making. In southern Africa, the Pitman monthly rainfall-runoff model has enjoyed relatively popular use as a water resources estimation tool. However, it is acknowledged that models are abstractions of reality and the data used to drive them is imperfect, making the model outputs uncertain. While there is acknowledgement of the limitations of modelled data in the southern African region among water practitioners, there has been little effort to explicitly quantify and account for this uncertainty in water resources estimation tools and explore how it affects the decision making process. Uncertainty manifests itself in three major areas of the modelling chain; the input data used to force the model, the parameter estimation process and the model structural errors. A previous study concluded that the parameter estimation process for the Pitman model contributed more to the global uncertainty of the model than other sources. While the literature abounds with uncertainty estimation techniques, many of these are dependent on observations and are therefore unlikely to be easily applicable to the southern African region where there is an acute shortage of such data. This study focuses on two aspects of making hydrologic predictions in ungauged basins. Firstly, the study advocates the development of an a priori parameter estimation process for the Pitman model and secondly, uses indices of hydrological functional behaviour to condition and reduce predictive uncertainty in both gauged and ungauged basins. In this approach all the basins are treated as ungauged, while the historical records in the gauged basins are used to develop regional indices of expected hydrological behaviour and assess the applicability of these methods. Incorporating uncertainty into the hydrologic estimation tools used in southern Africa entails rethinking the way the uncertain results can be used in further analysis and how they will be interpreted by stakeholders. An uncertainty framework is proposed. The framework is made up of a number of components related to the estimation of the prior distribution of the parameters, used to generate output ensembles which are then assessed and constrained using regionalised indices of basin behavioural responses. This is premised on such indices being based on the best available knowledge covering different regions. This framework is flexible enough to be used with any model structure to ensure consistent and comparable results. While the aim is to eventually apply the uncertainty framework in the southern African region, this study reports on the preliminary work on the development and testing of the framework components based on South African basins. This is necessitated by the variations in the availability and quality of the data across the region. Uncertainty in the parameter estimation process was incorporated by assuming uncertainty in the physical and hydro-meteorological data used to directly quantify the parameter. This uncertainty was represented by the range of variability of these basin characteristics and probability distribution functions were developed to account for this uncertainty and propagate it through the estimation process to generate posterior distributions for the parameters. The results show that the framework has a great deal of potential but can still be improved. In general, the estimated uncertain parameters managed to produce hydrologically realistic model outputs capturing the expected regimes across the different hydro-climatic and geo-physical gradients examined. The regional relationships for the three indices developed and tested in this study were in general agreement with existing knowledge and managed to successfully provide a multi-criteria conditioning of the model output ensembles. The feedback loop included in the framework enabled a systematic re-examination of the estimation procedures for both the parameters and the indices when inconsistencies in the results were identified. This improved results. However, there is need to carefully examine the issues and problems that may arise within other basins outside South Africa and develop guidelines for the use of the framework. / iText 1.4.6 (by lowagie.com)

Hydrological models are widely used tools in water resources estimation, but they are simple representations of reality and are frequently based on inadequate input data and uncertainties in parameter values. Data observation networks are expensive to establish and maintain and often beyond the resources of most developing countries. Consequently, measurements are difficult to obtain and observation networks in many countries are shrinking, hence obtaining representative observations in space and time remains a challenge. This study presents some guidelines on the identification, quantification and reduction of sources of uncertainty in water resources estimation in southern Africa, a data scarce region. The analyses are based on example sub-basins drawn from South Africa and the application of the Pitman hydrological model. While it has always been recognised that estimates of water resources availability for the region are subject to possible errors, the quantification of these uncertainties has never been explicitly incorporated into the methods used in the region. The motivation for this study was therefore to contribute to the future development of a revised framework for water resources estimation that does include uncertainty. The focus was on uncertainties associated with climate input data, parameter estimation (and recognizing the uncertainty due model structure deficiencies) methods and water use data. In addition to variance based measures of uncertainty, this study also used a reservoir yield based statistic to evaluate model output uncertainty, which represents an integrated measure of flow regime variations and one that can be more easily understood by water resources managers. Through a sensitivity analysis approach, the results of the individual contribution of each source of uncertainty suggest regional differences and that clear statements about which source of uncertainty is likely to dominate are not generally possible. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used in identifying parameters which are important withinspecific sub-basins and therefore those to focus on in uncertainty analysis. The study used a simple framework for evaluating the combined contribution of uncertainty sources to model outputs that is consistent with the model limitations and data available, and that allows direct quantitative comparison between model outputs obtained by using different sources of information and methods within Spatial and Time Series Information Modelling (SPATSIM) software. The results from combining the sources of uncertainties showed that parameter uncertainty dominates the contribution to model output uncertainty. However, in some parts of the country especially those with complex topography, which tend to experience high rainfall spatial variability, rainfall uncertainty is equally dominant, while the contributions of evaporation and water use data uncertainty are relatively small. While the results of this study are encouraging, the weaknesses of the methods used to quantify uncertainty (especially subjectivity involved in evaluating parameter uncertainty) should not be neglected and require further evaluations. An effort to reduce data and parameter uncertainty shows that this can only be achieved if data access at appropriate scale and quality improves. Perhaps the focus should be on maintaining existing networks and concentrating research efforts on making the most out of the emerging data products derived from remote sensing platforms. While this study presents some initial guidelines for evaluating uncertainty in South Africa, there is need to overcome several constraints which are related to data availability and accuracy, the models used and the capacity or willingness to adopt new methods that incorporate uncertainty. The study has provided a starting point for the development of new approaches to modelling water resources in the region that include uncertain estimates.

The Caledon River Basin is located on one of the most water-scarce region on the African continent. The water resources of the Caledon River Basin play a pivotal role in socio-economic activities in both Lesotho and South Africa but the basin experiences recurrent severe droughts and frequent water shortages. The Caledon River is mostly used for commercial and subsistence agriculture, industrial and domestic supply. The resources are also important beyond the basin’s boundaries as the water is transferred to the nearby Modder River. The Caledon River is also a significant tributary to the Orange-Senqu Basin, which is shared by five southern African countries. However, the water resources in the basin are under continuous threat as a result of rapidly growing population, economic growth as well as changing climate, amongst others. It is therefore important that the hydrological regime and water resources of the basin are thoroughly evaluated and assessed so that they can be sustainably managed and utilised for maximum economic benefits. Climate change has been identified by the international community as one of the most prominent threats to peace, food security and livelihood and southern Africa as among the most vulnerable regions of the world. Water resources are perceived as a natural resource which will be affected the most by the changing climate conditions. Global warming is expected to bring more severe, prolonged droughts and exacerbate water shortages in this region. The current study is mainly focused on investigating the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Caledon River Basin. The main objectives of the current study included assessing the past and current hydrological characteristics of the Caledon River Basin under current state of the physical environment, observed climate conditions and estimated water use; detecting any changes in the future rainfall and evaporative demands relative to present conditions and evaluating the impacts of climate on the basin’s hydrological regime and water resources availability for the future climate scenario, 2046-2065. To achieve these objectives the study used observed hydrological, meteorological data sets and the basin’s physical characteristics to establish parameters of the Pitman and WEAP hydrological models. Hydrological modelling is an integral part of hydrological investigations and evaluations. The various sources of uncertainties in the outputs of the climate and hydrological models were identified and quantified, as an integral part of the whole exercise. The 2-step approach of the uncertainty version of the model was used to estimate a range of parameters yielding behavioural natural flow ensembles. This approach uses the regional and local hydrological signals to constrain the model parameter ranges. The estimated parameters were also employed to guide the calibration process of the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model. The two models incorporated the estimated water uses within the basin to establish the present day flow simulations and they were found to sufficiently simulate the present day flows, as compared to the observed flows. There is an indication therefore, that WEAP can be successfully applied in other regions for hydrological investigations. Possible changes in future climate regime of the basin were evaluated by analysing downscaled temperature and rainfall outputs from a set of 9 climate models. The predictions are based on the A2 greenhouse gases emission scenario which assumes a continuous increase in emission rates. While the climate models agree that temperature, and hence, evapotranspiration will increase in the future, they demonstrate significant disagreement on whether rainfall will decrease or increase and by how much. The disagreement of the GCMs on projected future rainfall constitutes a major uncertainty in the prediction of water resources availability of the basin. This is to the extent that according to 7 out of 9 climate models used, the stream flow in four sub-basins (D21E, D22B, D23D and D23F) in the Caledon River Basin is projected to decrease below the present day flows, while two models (IPSL and MIUB) consistently project enhanced water resource availability in the basin in the future. The differences in the GCM projections highlight the margin of uncertainty involved predicting the future status of water resources in the basin. Such uncertainty should not be ignored and these results can be useful in aiding decision-makers to develop policies that are robust and that encompass all possibilities. In an attempt to reduce the known uncertainties, the study recommends upgrading of the hydrological monitoring network within the Caledon River Basin to facilitate improved hydrological evaluation and management. It also suggests the use of updated climate change data from the newest generation climate models, as well as integrating the findings of the current research into water resources decision making process.

Thesis (MA (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / River basins have long been attracting human settlement and development, promising water and fertile lands (Newson 1992). The Bot River Catchment on the southern coast of South Africa is no exception. However, much of the development in this catchment has not been controlled and its land and water resources are being abused. This is affecting the water quality and quantity of the river system and estuary at an alarming rate. In this thesis, the ‘reference’ land cover in the Bot River Catchment is recreated. This term is used to describe “the hydrological state of the catchment as it was when completely covered in natural vegetation, thus before it was impacted by humans” (Jacobs & Bruwer 2002:12). A rainfall-runoff model is employed to investigate the effects of various land covers on the catchment’s runoff quantity, by comparing the simulation results of the catchment’s reference and current state. The results of the model point to a large reduction in runoff since the reference state of the catchment. As the rainfall-runoff model applied did not allow for modelling of the annual agriculture that dominates the catchment, the runoff reduction was attributed to the smaller areas of perennial agriculture, forestry and alien vegetation infestation. The simulation results confirmed the threat of current land use practices on the environmental integrity of the Bot River Catchment. A transition to agricultural practices that are more suited to the climate is suggested and the eradication of alien vegetation should be seen as a priority. Most importantly, a holistic approach should be taken towards the management of the Bot River Catchment. The altered hydrodynamic regime of the Bot River Estuary is symptomatic of misuse of the entire catchment. As ongoing demographic and land use pressures create a new generation of water management problems (Department of Water Affairs & Forestry 1993), a deeper understanding of the relationships between the different components in the Bot River Catchment becomes increasingly urgent.