This thesis examines a protracted planning process in the Saskatoon city-region. More specifically, it examines the planning process which occurred between 1992 and 2004 regarding a residential housing development on The Willows Golf Course. This thesis reveals that the protracted planning process was the result of several factors including: the fragmented character of governance; the planning and development policies and decision-making process in the Saskatoon city-region; the multiplicity of actors; and the political dynamics that arose in an intermunicipal conflict between the City of Saskatoon and the Rural Municipality of Corman Park. <p>The thesis concludes that this case study provides some important lessons for both governments and planners in the Saskatoon city-region as well as other city-regions on opportunities and obstacles for improving planning processes. The first major lesson is that problems emerge when an innovative proposal lands in the context of an antiquated policy framework that cannot adequately deal with it. The second major lesson is that the current regional planning mechanisms are not conducive to comprehensive long-term planning for the city-region. The third lesson is that in some cases the opposition is to changes to the traditional decision-making processes as much as it is to the proposed project. The fourth major lesson is that timely and effective communication is very important for determining character of the political dynamics surrounding a development proposal. Miscommunication can create problematic political dynamics. The fifth major lesson is that economic considerations are inextricably tied to the politics of planning and development.<p>This study concludes with two major recommendations. The first recommendation is that in order to overcome the negative outcomes of fragmented governance systems, formal structures and protocols must be improved to ensure that municipalities continue to communicate effectively with one another in difficult circumstances created by increasing development pressure, especially when they are likely to disagree on a particular development proposal. The second recommendation is that given that there is no guarantee that neighbouring municipal governments can always reach agreement between them, legitimate and efficient dispute settlement mechanisms are required both at the regional level and at the provincial level.

Le but de cette thèse est de développer des outils statistiques permettant d'initialiser et de calibrer les modèles de microsimulation dynamique stochastique, en partant de l’exemple du modèle SimVillages (développé dans le cadre du projet Européen PRIMA). Ce modèle couple des dynamiques démographiques et économiques appliquées à une population de municipalités rurales. Chaque individu de la population, représenté explicitement dans un ménage au sein d’une commune, travaille éventuellement dans une autre, et possède sa propre trajectoire de vie. Ainsi, le modèle inclut-il des dynamiques de choix de vie, d’étude, de carrière, d’union, de naissance, de divorce, de migration et de décès. Nous avons développé, implémenté et testé les modèles et méthodes suivants : 1 / un modèle permettant de générer une population synthétique à partir de données agrégées, où chaque individu est membre d’un ménage, vit dans une commune et possède un statut au regard de l’emploi. Cette population synthétique est l’état initial du modèle. 2 / un modèle permettant de simuler une table d’origine-destination des déplacements domicile-travail à partir de données agrégées. 3 / un modèle permettant d’estimer le nombre d’emplois dans les services de proximité dans une commune donnée en fonction de son nombre d’habitants et de son voisinage en termes de service. 4 / une méthode de calibration des paramètres inconnus du modèle SimVillages de manière à satisfaire un ensemble de critères d'erreurs définis sur des sources de données hétérogènes. Cette méthode est fondée sur un nouvel algorithme d’échantillonnage séquentiel de type Approximate Bayesian Computation. / The purpose of this thesis is to develop statistical tools to initialize and to calibrate dynamic stochastic microsimulation models, starting from their application to the SimVillages model (developed within the European PRIMA project). This model includes demographic and economic dynamics applied to the population of a set of rural municipalities. Each individual, represented explicitly in a household living in a municipality, possibly working in another, has its own life trajectory. Thus, model includes rules for the choice of study, career, marriage, birth children, divorce, migration, and death. We developed, implemented and tested the following models : • a model to generate a synthetic population from aggregate data, where each individual lives in a household in a municipality and has a status with regard to employment. The synthetic population is the initial state of the model. • a model to simulate a table of origin-destination commuting from aggregate data in order to assign a place of work for each individual working outside his municipality of residence. • a sub-model to estimate the number of jobs in local services in a given municipality in terms of its number of inhabitants and its neighbors in terms of service. • a method to calibrate the unknown SimVillages model parameters in order to satisfy a set of criteria. This method is based on a new Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm using importance sampling. When applied to a toy example and to the SimVillages model, our algorithm is 2 to 8 times faster than the three main sequential ABC algorithms currently available.