Water availability in Southern Africa is highly variable both in time and space, thereby exposing the region to high risks in water availability. This is further compounded by numerous human activities which have significant impact on water resources. The brunt of the risks associated with water scarcity is particularly heaviest on resourceconstrained farmers who depend largely on rain-fed agriculture for subsistence. With continuously increasing demands on the water resources, the need for a better understanding of the hydrological systems becomes crucial as it forms the gateway for providing reliable information for managing water resources. It is also increasingly becoming more important to address land and water linkages because land use decisions are water use decisions. Operational hydrology provides an insight into the effects of man-made changes, the foreseeable hydrological characteristics at a given site, and the long-term prediction of the future hydrological effects of human activities. This provides for a more holistic approach in managing land and water resources as well as the impact of land use on partitioning rainfall into streamflow. This report discusses the application of the SWAT model to the B72E - F quaternary catchments in the Olifants Water Management Area to assess streamflow generation and the effects of human-environment interactions on the hydrology. Results show an expected correlation between land cover and the hydrologic response where an increase in land cover corresponds to a reduction in the streamflow. Range grass shows a higher reduction in the streamflow followed by forestry with arid land giving the highest increase in streamflow. Prediction in the similar neighbouring and ungauged B72A catchment gives a MAR of 68mm. Additionally, a rigorous analysis of the concepts of a local hydrological model, HDAM, is done with respect to rainfall which is the main driver of the model. Modifications of some of the relationships used in the model are suggested with the potential of streamlining the model and making it more applicable in the region.

Water scarcity is a problem that will be exacerbated by climate change. Being able to model the effect of climate change on water scarcity is important to effectively plan the use of future water resources. This research integrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), climate model, and water footprint analysis to measure the impact of climate change on future water scarcity. This was achieved through two objectives. The first objective was to create a modeling framework that links the output from climate model to SWAT and combined streamflow outputs from SWAT with water footprint analysis to measure how climate change will impact water scarcity of a river basin. This was accomplished through creating a SWAT model within ArcMap and inputting a topographic, soil, land use, and weather data. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data were used in lieu of observed weather data due to a lack of available data. SWAT-CUP (Calibration and Uncertainty Program) was used to calibrate two upstream streamflow gauges, then calibrate and validate a third streamflow gauge at the outlet of the Senqu basin in Lesotho. The two upstream streamflow gauges were calibrated from 1986 to 2002. The downstream streamflow gauge was calibrated from 1985 to 2002 and validated from 2003 to 2013. Three Regional Climate Models (RCM), ICHEC-EC-EARTH, MIROC-MIROC5, and CCCma-CanESM2 were downloaded from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dataset. Each RCM was downloaded with two different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The RCMs were bias corrected using a cumulative distribution function mapping technique. These RCMs as well as an average of the RCMs were used as input for the SWAT model to generate future streamflow outputs. The streamflow outputs provide the future blue water availability of the Senqu River. The results showed an overall decrease in streamflow in both RCPs. The second objective was to apply the framework to Lesotho and use the information from the ArcSWAT model and data from the Blue Water Footprint analysis to measure the future potential Blue Water Scarcity of Lesotho. This was accomplished through the Blue Water Footprint of Lesotho generated from the 5th National Blue Footprint analysis. The annual blue water scarcity was calculated as the ratio of the Blue Water Available to Blue Water Footprint. Three approaches were adopted to analyze the water scarcity of Lesotho. The first approach used the national Blue Water Footprint in the water scarcity calculation to investigate the worst-case scenario. The second approach used the modified blue water footprint based on the population living within the Senqu river basin. The third approach used a modified blue water footprint that accounted for the projected population growth of Lesotho. The results of scenario 1 showed there was moderate water scarcity in a period of four years in climate scenario of RCP8.5. The results of scenario 3 showed there were multiple cases of water scarcity in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 with two years of severe water scarcity. This research is limited by data availability and the results for Lesotho could be improved by accurate dam data and the fine scale water footprint analysis. The modeling framework integrating climate model, hydrology, and water footprint analysis, however, can be applied to other remote places where limited data are available.

This project presents the development and design of a comprehensive interface coupled with a geodatabase (ArcGISwat 2003), for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a hydrologically distributed, lumped parameter model that runs on a continuous time step. The quantity and extensive detail of the spatial and hydrologic data, involved in the input and output, both make SWAT highly complex. A new interface, that will manage the input/output (I/O) process, is being developed using the Geodatabase object model and concepts from hydrological data models such as ArcHydro. It also incorporates uncertainty analysis on the process of modeling. This interface aims to further direct communication and integration with other hydrologic models, consequently increasing efficiency and diminishing modeling time. A case study is presented in order to demonstrate a common watershed-modeling task, which utilizes SWAT and ArcGIS-SWAT2003.

Wooded plant encroachment has dramatically changed the composition of rangelands in the arid and semiarid rangelands of the southwestern United States and may have significantly affected hydrologic and biogeochemical process in these environments. In particular, suspicions that encroaching species waste an undue amount of water through evapotranspiration (ET) has prompted much discussion concerning the possibility of using brush control to enhance water supplies in Texas. This study focuses on two broad goals for evaluating the effects of wooded growth in rangelands. The first of these is the assessment of wooded cover with the use of remotely sensed imagery. A methodology for delineating differing land cover classes, including different levels of brush cover, is described, applied, and validated for the Upper Guadalupe River watershed, Texas. This portion of the research resulted in an 81.81% success rate for correctly matching land cover varieties and showed that 88.8% of the watershed was covered with various amounts of woody plant growth. The second portion of this study incorporated the previously developed land cover product along with a number of other highly detailed data sources to model the North Fork of the Upper Guadalupe River watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The role of topography, brush cover, and soil slope, which are hypothesized to contribute to successful implementation of brush removal for water yield, were tested in a scientifically conscious and practical experiment to determine their influence upon water availability at a watershed scale. The effects of brush removal were found to be comparable to the quantities documented in field experiments, but less than the levels presented in previous modeling studies. Brush density was found to be the most important factor in determining locations for successful brush removal in regards to reducing ET. Slope was also found to have significant effect in increasing lateral flow while shallow soil had lesser effects on hydrology than other criteria. Large quantities of deep recharge simulated by the model raise questions concerning measurement of ET in the Edwards Plateau region and the extent of deep water recharge to the Trinity Aquifer.

In Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), oftentimes, Critical Source Area (CSA), the minimum upstream drainage area that is required to initiate a stream, is used to subdivide a watershed. In the current literature, CSA has been used as a trial and error process to define the subwatershed levels. On the other hand, the ongoing collaboration of the United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water and the United States Geological Survey has promoted a national level predefined catchments and flowlines called National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) Plus to ease watershed modeling in the United States. The introduction of NHDPlus can eliminate the uncertain nature in defining the number of subwatersheds required to model the hydrologic system. This study demonstrates an integrated modeling environment with SWAT and NHDPlus spatial datasets. A spatial tool that was developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) environment to by-pass the default watershed delineation in ArcSWAT, the GIS interface to SWAT, with the introduction of NHDPlus catchments and flowlines, was used in this study. This study investigates the effect of the spatial size (catchment area) of the NHDPlus and the input data resolution (cell/pixel size) within NHDPlus catchments on SWAT streamflow and sediment prediction. In addition, an entropy based watershed subdivision scheme is presented by using the landuse and soil spatial datasets with the conventional CSA approach to investigate if one of the CSAs can be considered to produce the best SWAT prediction on streamflow. Two watersheds (Kings Creek, Texas and Sugar Creek, Indiana) were used in this study. The study shows that there exists a subwatershed map that does not belong to one of the subwatershed maps produced through conventional CSA approach, to produce a better result on uncalibrated monthly SWAT streamflow prediction. Beyond the critical threshold, the CSA threshold which gives the best uncalibrated monthly streamflow prediction among a given set of CSAs, the SWAT performance can be improved further by subdividing some of the subwatersheds at this critical threshold. The study also shows that the input data resolution (within each NHDPlus catchments) does not have an influence on SWAT streamflow prediction for the selected watersheds. However, there is a change on streamflow prediction as the area of the NHDPlus catchment changes. Beyond a certain catchment size (8-9% of the watershed area), as the input data resolution becomes finer, the total sediment increases whereas the sediment prediction in high flow regime decreases. As the NHDPlus catchment size changes, the stream power has an influence on total sediment prediction. However, as the input data resolution changes, but keeping the NHDPlus catchment size constant, the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation topographic factor has an influence on total sediment prediction.

This project presents the development and design of a comprehensive interface coupled with a geodatabase (ArcGISwat 2003), for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a hydrologically distributed, lumped parameter model that runs on a continuous time step. The quantity and extensive detail of the spatial and hydrologic data, involved in the input and output, both make SWAT highly complex. A new interface, that will manage the input/output (I/O) process, is being developed using the Geodatabase object model and concepts from hydrological data models such as ArcHydro. It also incorporates uncertainty analysis on the process of modeling. This interface aims to further direct communication and integration with other hydrologic models, consequently increasing efficiency and diminishing modeling time. A case study is presented in order to demonstrate a common watershed-modeling task, which utilizes SWAT and ArcGIS-SWAT2003.

Wooded plant encroachment has dramatically changed the composition of rangelands in the arid and semiarid rangelands of the southwestern United States and may have significantly affected hydrologic and biogeochemical process in these environments. In particular, suspicions that encroaching species waste an undue amount of water through evapotranspiration (ET) has prompted much discussion concerning the possibility of using brush control to enhance water supplies in Texas. This study focuses on two broad goals for evaluating the effects of wooded growth in rangelands. The first of these is the assessment of wooded cover with the use of remotely sensed imagery. A methodology for delineating differing land cover classes, including different levels of brush cover, is described, applied, and validated for the Upper Guadalupe River watershed, Texas. This portion of the research resulted in an 81.81% success rate for correctly matching land cover varieties and showed that 88.8% of the watershed was covered with various amounts of woody plant growth. The second portion of this study incorporated the previously developed land cover product along with a number of other highly detailed data sources to model the North Fork of the Upper Guadalupe River watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The role of topography, brush cover, and soil slope, which are hypothesized to contribute to successful implementation of brush removal for water yield, were tested in a scientifically conscious and practical experiment to determine their influence upon water availability at a watershed scale. The effects of brush removal were found to be comparable to the quantities documented in field experiments, but less than the levels presented in previous modeling studies. Brush density was found to be the most important factor in determining locations for successful brush removal in regards to reducing ET. Slope was also found to have significant effect in increasing lateral flow while shallow soil had lesser effects on hydrology than other criteria. Large quantities of deep recharge simulated by the model raise questions concerning measurement of ET in the Edwards Plateau region and the extent of deep water recharge to the Trinity Aquifer.

Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) operators are specially trained personnel that are required to carry equipment to perform high risk tasks. Given the need to carry this equipment, it is important to understand the potentially deleterious effect that the additional load may have on tactical performance. Furthermore, it is important to identify physical fitness characteristics that are associated with the potential decrement in performance. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of load carriage on tactical performance and identify fitness characteristics associated with any decrement in performance. Twelve male operators performed a simulated tactical test (STT) on a live firing range with (loaded condition) and without external equipment (unloaded condition) and completed a battery of physical fitness assessments. Time to complete the STT in the loaded condition increased by 7.8% compared to the unloaded condition. Nine of the 13 STT tasks were performed significantly slower in the loaded condition. VO2peak was negatively associated and fatigue index was positively associated with the overall STT delta time. These findings indicate that a higher aerobic capacity and lower anaerobic fatigability are related to a greater resilience to carrying a load while performing tactical tasks.

This thesis assesses phosphorus loads and management practices to control nutrient transport to Lake Uluabat. It analyzes nonpoint sources of pollution, especially agricultural pollution, throughout Uluabat Basin (watershed). AVSWAT (ArcviewTM Interface of Soil and Water Assessment Tool 2000) was used in determination of phosphorus and sediment loads to Lake Uluabat. Contribution of soluble phosphorus (SOLP) loads from agricultural sites was discussed. Seven scenarios were applied through watershed area to see effects of fertilizer and irrigation application rates, landuse changes, point source and watershed inlet loads on phosphorus loads. Calibration of the model was performed annually due to lack of data. First stream flow, next sediment and finally nutrient (SOLP) was calibrated at two gages. At the first gage, simulation results were satisfactory in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) and percentage deviation between observation and simulation values (Dv). ENS values for stream, sediment and SOLP were &gt / =0.99. Dv values for stream, sediment and SOLP were &lt / &plusmn / 1%. At the second gage, after calibration, following values were obtained for ENS and Dv: Stream flow - ENS=0.75, Dv&lt / 10% / sediment - ENS=0.71, Dv=25% / SOLP - ENS=0.55, Dv&lt / 20%. It was concluded that agricultural sites were among major contributors of phosphorus load to Lake Uluabat. SOLP load to lake was about 4.0 gP/m2/year, greater than the target value of 1.0 gP/m2/year (DHKD, 2002). Scenario results showed that removing agricultural lands around Lake Uluabat and decreasing fertilizer application rates were necessary to reduce SOLP loads to lake. Moreover, phosphorus load from Emet and Orhaneli Watersheds seemed significant.

Applications of the SWAT model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the tool. In a standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, and slope, but located in different places within a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as LULC, soil, crop rotation and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002 to 2010 and the Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000 to 2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to assess agricultural scenario and climate change impacts on watershed water quantity, quality, and crop yields. Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental, and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists modeling the combined impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on crop yields and watershed hydrology. Here, SWAT, was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural scenarios and three climate scenarios downscaled using eight climate models. These scenarios were implemented in a well calibrated SWAT model for the Raccoon River watershed (RRW), IA. We run the scenarios for the historical baseline, early-century, mid-century, and late-century periods. Results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid and late 21st century. Finally, various agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios were evaluated for their efficiency in alleviating watershed water quality problems. The vast majority of the literature on efficiency assessment of BMPs in alleviating water quality problems base their scenarios analysis on identifying subbasin level simulation results. In the this study, we used spatially explicit HRUs, defined using ArcGIS-based pre-processing methodology, to identify Nitrate (NO3) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) hotspots at the HRU/field level, and evaluate the efficiency of selected BMPs in a large watershed, RRW, using the SWAT model. Accordingly, analysis of fourteen management scenarios were performed based on systematic combinations of five agricultural BMPs (fertilizer/manure management, changing cropland to perennial grass, vegetative filter strips, cover crops and shallower tile drainage systems) aimed to reduce NO3 and TSS yields from targeted hotspot areas in the watershed at field level. Moreover, implications of climate change on management practices, and impacts of management practices on water availability and crop yield and total production were assessed. Results indicated that either implementation of multiple BMPs or conversion of an extensive area into perennial grass may be required to sufficiently reduce nitrate loads to meet the drinking water standard. Moreover, climate change may undermine the effectiveness of management practices, especially late in the 21st century. The targeted approach used in this study resulted in slight decreases in watershed average crop yields, hence the reduction in total crop production is mainly due to conversion of croplands to perennial grass.