<p>Soil and water assessment tool model (SWAT model) is a widely used model when dealing with large and complex watershed simulations. To correctly predict runoff of a watershed, auto-calibration methods are applied. Among all the platforms, SWAT CUP is widely used in the SWAT model community. The new web-based calibration platform: SWATShare is also gaining its popularity due to the benefits of user-friendly interface, access to high-performance computing resources, and collaborative interface. While the algorithm implemented in SWAT CUP is Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI2), Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is the algorithm employed by SWATShare. There is a limited amount of research comparing the model performance between these two calibration algorithms and platforms. </p> <p> </p> <p>This study aims to examine whether the performances of calibrated models are providing equally reliable results. Thirty US watersheds are studied in this research, SWAT models were calibrated using seven years of rainfall data and outflow observations from 2001 to 2007, and then the models were validated using three years of historical records from 2008 to 2010. Inconsistency exists between different algorithms calibrated parameter sets, and the percentage difference between parameter values ranges from 8.7% to 331.5%. However, in two-thirds of the study basins, there is no significant difference between objective function values in two algorithms calibrated models. Correlations are examined using values of parameters and watershed features. Among all the features and parameters, Length of reach and GW_DELAY, CH_N2 and ALPHA_BF, climate zone and GWQMN, SFTMP and NSE have medium correlation exist in both SWATShare and SWAT CUP calibrated models among 30 watersheds. The correlation coefficient difference between them are less than 0.1. When visualizing results by Ecoregions, KGE and NSE are similar in calibrated models from both tools. </p> <p> </p> <p>The initial parameter range used for SWAT CUP calibration could lead to satisfactory results with greater than 0.5 objective function values. However, the parameter values of the calibrated model might not be presenting a real physical condition since they are out of the realistic range. The inaccurate parameter values might lead to lower objective function values in the validation. The objective function values can be improved by setting the range of parameter values to match the realistic values. </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p>By comparing two tools, SWATShare accurately calibrates parameter values to a realistic range using default range in most cases. For those models with an unsatisfactory result from SWATShare, the objective function values could be improved after specifying the parameters to the best-fit range given by SWAT CUP results. Also, for those watersheds which have similar satisfactory calibrated objective values from both tools, constraining the parameter to a reasonable range could generate a new calibrated model that performs as well as the original one. Using the approach to constrain parameter values to a realistic range gradually can exclude some statistically satisfactory but physically meaningless models. Comparing two auto-calibration software, SWATShare accurately calibrates parameter values to a realistic range using default range in most cases. Also, in some of the ecoregions, the best parameter sets in SWATShare fall in a more physically meaningful range. Overall, the newly emerged platform, SWATShare, is found to have the capability of conducting good SWAT model calibration. </p>

Submitted by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-10-31T10:58:58Z No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luciana Ferreira (lucgeral@gmail.com) on 2014-10-31T13:53:40Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-31T13:53:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Dissertação - Aldrei Marucci Veiga - 2014.pdf: 5268745 bytes, checksum: 0e3ad5ec1cc47d54396dd6386dfc2034 (MD5) license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-19 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG / This research paper focus on the analysis of SWAT model calibration in terms of flow and sediment in Samambaia River Basin, a small watershed (32.78 km2) located at Goiânia, Brazil. Streamflow and suspended sediment daily measurements have been carried out by February to December 2013 and climatic data were obtained form a weather station located inside the basin. Terrain data such as Digital Elevation Model (DEM), soil types, and land use were on the SWAT autocalibration too as well as on SWAT-CUP software, which is a specific too for automatic calibration. Initially, the simulation run in SWAT overestimated values of runoff peak and underestimated minimum discharges. However, the peaks were minimized and minimum discharges were adjusted to the observed flows after sensitivity analysis. By using different optimization schemes (GLUE, PARASOL and SUFI-2) in SWAT-CUP, an automatic calibration analysis has been done, which presented a better fit to the observed values (start with streamflow, than move to sediment). Statistical analysis using the coefficient of Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (COE) resulted in 0.80 and 0.88 for runoff and suspended sediment, respectively, which are considered good fits between simulated and observed values. The CN parameter, which is related to soil type, land use, and infiltration, showed the highest sensitivity in the calibration. After that, the alpha factor of base flow was another which showed higher sensitivity. The higher value obtained for the Manning roughness coefficient allows runoff to be damped. With regard to sediment calibration, parameters of sediment from landscape (USLE_P and USLE_C) as well as parameters of sediment from channel (SPCON and SPEXP) have been used in the calibration, once that they have shown higher sensibility. / O objetivo desta pesquisa é fazer a análise da calibração do modelo SWAT em termos de fluxo e sedimentos na bacia do Córrego Samambaia, uma microbacia (32,78km2), localizada em Goiânia, Brasil. Medições diárias de vazões e sedimentos foram realizadas em Fevereiro a Dezembro de 2013, e os dados climáticos foram obtidos a partir de uma estação meteorológica localizada no interior da bacia. Dados do terreno, tais como Elevação Digital do Terreno (MDT), tipos de solos e usos da terra foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação e Estatística de Goiás (SIEG). Análises foram realizadas na ferramenta autocalibração do SWAT, bem como no software SWAT-CUP, que é uma ferramenta específica para a calibração automática. Inicialmente, a execução da simulação no SWAT superestimou os valores de pico do escoamento e subestimou as vazões mínimas. No entanto, os picos foram minimizados e as vazões mínimas foram ajustadas para os fluxos observados após análise de sensibilidade. Ao utilizar diferentes esquemas de otimização (GLUE, ParaSol e Sufi-2) no SWAT-CUP, uma análise de calibração automática foi feito, que apresentou um melhor ajuste aos valores observados (começando pela vazão a qual altera o sedimento). A análise estatística do coeficiente de eficiência de Nach-Sutcliffe (COE) resultou em 0,80 e 0,88 para o escoamento superficial e sedimentos em suspensão, respectivamente, que são considerados bons ajustes entre os valores simulados e observados. O parâmetro CN, que está relacionado com o tipo de solo, uso da terra e infiltração, apresentou maior sensibilidade na calibração. Depois disso, o fator alfa de fluxo de base foi outra que mostrou maior sensibilidade. Quanto maior for o valor obtido para o coeficiente de rugosidade de Manning permite que o escoamento seja amortecido. No que diz respeito a calibração dos sedimentos, os parâmetros de sedimentos de paisagem (USLE_P e USLE_C), bem como os parâmetros de sedimentos a partir do canal (SPCON e SPEXP) tem sido utilizados na calibração, uma vez que eles mostraram maior sensibilidade.

The economic and social losses of environmental disasters are increasingly higher. Floods are a main concern in many locations around the world. Preventive actions are urgent and necessary. This doctoral thesis addresses topics related to hydro-meteorological risks and water resources management. Its aim is to cope with hydrological risks and water resources management through a flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter of the thesis, and are mostly related to the 12,600 km2 Piracicaba watershed, in Southeast, Brazil. Chapter one has general introductions and explains how the thesis is organized. Chapter two brings an assessment and mapping of flooding risks. Chapter three reviews the watershed modelling topic, through applications of a selected watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) in Brazil. Chapter four proposes a good practice methodology for calibration of watershed models for different time-steps with available data, having hydrology as main focus. Chapter five explores different methodologies for calibrating hydrological models, using two optimization algorithms and with a multi-site and single site approaches to evaluate related changes in performance. Chapter six has complex watershed modeling for sub-daily time-step, with an automatic hourly calibration module that was included in SWAT-CUP and the application of these models to forecast ensemble streamflow and with a data assimilation approach with optimization to improve the quality of the forecasts. Chapter seven has overall conclusions and chapter eight has a summarized list of other activities developed during the doctoral process. Overall we believe the methodologies and results for the Piracicaba watershed are very good. And that they can be replicated in other watersheds in Brazil and around the world. The proposed mapping assessments of flooding vulnerability and risks can be applied for the entire Brazil, and could be used as a tool in water resources management and planning. The watershed model (SWAT) used on this doctoral thesis also proved to be a versatile and robust model, with several good example applications in Brazil, and in particular for the Piracicaba case study. The step by step calibration methodology, as well as the different calibrations performed can help other modelers on choosing where and how to calibrate their own models. For hourly application, this work is pioneer, in area scale and model used. The results for ensemble flow forecasting and data assimilation show a little of what can be performed with this kind of application, and that it can be a potential tool for real time applications in streamflow forecasting and early warning systems. We believe the lessons learnt in this thesis can improve and aid modeler and water resources managers worldwide. / Os prejuízos econômicos e sociais de desastres ambientais têm sido maiores. Inundações são uma das principais preocupações ao redor do mundo. Ações preventivas são urgentes e necessárias. Esta tese de doutorado aborda temas relacionados à gestão dos recursos hídricos e de riscos hidro-meteorológicos. Possui o objetivo de lidar com riscos hidrológicos através de índices de risco a inundações, modelagem complexa de bacias hidrográficas, diferentes técnicas de calibração, e previsão de vazões por conjunto. Pressupostos e objetivos específicos são definidos em cada capítulo da tese, e são na sua maioria relacionados à bacia hidrográfica do Rio Piracicaba (12.600 km2), Sudeste do Brasil. O Capítulo um traz as introduções gerais e explica a organização da tese. O capítulo dois desenvolve mapeamento de riscos a inundações. O capítulo três revisa o tópico de modelagem de bacias hidrográficas, através de aplicações de um modelo selecionado (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) no Brasil. O quarto capítulo propõe uma metodologia de boas práticas para a calibração de modelos de bacias hidrográficas utilizando dados disponíveis, com foco principal na hidrologia. O capítulo cinco explora diferentes metodologias de calibração, utilizando dois algoritmos de otimização e abordagens de calibração em um local e demais locais para avaliar alterações relacionadas ao desempenho da modelagem. O capítulo seis trabalha com modelagem sub-diária, com um módulo de calibração horária automática, que foi incluído no SWAT-CUP, e aplicação destes modelos para previsão de vazões por conjunto e assimilação de dados com otimização, para melhorar a qualidade das previsões. O sétimo capítulo traz as conclusões gerais da tese e oitavo capítulo apresenta uma lista resumida de outras atividades desenvolvidas durante o doutorado. Acreditamos que as metodologias e resultados para a bacia hidrográfica Piracicaba são muito bons. E que podem ser replicados em outras bacias hidrográficas no Brasil e ao redor do mundo. O mapeamento de vulnerabilidade e riscos de inundação propostos pode ser aplicados para todo o Brasil, além de possuir potencial como uma ferramenta de planejamento. O modelo utilizado (SWAT) também provou ser versátil e robusto, com vários bons exemplos de aplicações no Brasil, e em especial para a Bacia do Piracicaba. A metodologia sistemática para calibração, bem como as diferentes calibrações executadas podem auxiliar outros modeladores a escolherem como calibrar seus próprios modelos. Este trabalho é pioneiro no tipo de aplicação horária apresentada. Os resultados de previsão por conjunto de vazões e de assimilação de dados mostram o potencial da metodologia para sistemas de previsão de vazões em tempo real e em sistemas de alerta antecipado. Nós acreditamos que as lições aprendidas nesta tese podem auxiliar modeladores e gestores de recursos hídricos ao redor do mundo.

The economic and social losses of environmental disasters are increasingly higher. Floods are a main concern in many locations around the world. Preventive actions are urgent and necessary. This doctoral thesis addresses topics related to hydro-meteorological risks and water resources management. Its aim is to cope with hydrological risks and water resources management through a flooding risk index, complex watershed modeling, different calibration techniques, and ensemble streamflow forecasting. Specific assumptions and research questions are defined in each chapter of the thesis, and are mostly related to the 12,600 km2 Piracicaba watershed, in Southeast, Brazil. Chapter one has general introductions and explains how the thesis is organized. Chapter two brings an assessment and mapping of flooding risks. Chapter three reviews the watershed modelling topic, through applications of a selected watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) in Brazil. Chapter four proposes a good practice methodology for calibration of watershed models for different time-steps with available data, having hydrology as main focus. Chapter five explores different methodologies for calibrating hydrological models, using two optimization algorithms and with a multi-site and single site approaches to evaluate related changes in performance. Chapter six has complex watershed modeling for sub-daily time-step, with an automatic hourly calibration module that was included in SWAT-CUP and the application of these models to forecast ensemble streamflow and with a data assimilation approach with optimization to improve the quality of the forecasts. Chapter seven has overall conclusions and chapter eight has a summarized list of other activities developed during the doctoral process. Overall we believe the methodologies and results for the Piracicaba watershed are very good. And that they can be replicated in other watersheds in Brazil and around the world. The proposed mapping assessments of flooding vulnerability and risks can be applied for the entire Brazil, and could be used as a tool in water resources management and planning. The watershed model (SWAT) used on this doctoral thesis also proved to be a versatile and robust model, with several good example applications in Brazil, and in particular for the Piracicaba case study. The step by step calibration methodology, as well as the different calibrations performed can help other modelers on choosing where and how to calibrate their own models. For hourly application, this work is pioneer, in area scale and model used. The results for ensemble flow forecasting and data assimilation show a little of what can be performed with this kind of application, and that it can be a potential tool for real time applications in streamflow forecasting and early warning systems. We believe the lessons learnt in this thesis can improve and aid modeler and water resources managers worldwide. / Os prejuízos econômicos e sociais de desastres ambientais têm sido maiores. Inundações são uma das principais preocupações ao redor do mundo. Ações preventivas são urgentes e necessárias. Esta tese de doutorado aborda temas relacionados à gestão dos recursos hídricos e de riscos hidro-meteorológicos. Possui o objetivo de lidar com riscos hidrológicos através de índices de risco a inundações, modelagem complexa de bacias hidrográficas, diferentes técnicas de calibração, e previsão de vazões por conjunto. Pressupostos e objetivos específicos são definidos em cada capítulo da tese, e são na sua maioria relacionados à bacia hidrográfica do Rio Piracicaba (12.600 km2), Sudeste do Brasil. O Capítulo um traz as introduções gerais e explica a organização da tese. O capítulo dois desenvolve mapeamento de riscos a inundações. O capítulo três revisa o tópico de modelagem de bacias hidrográficas, através de aplicações de um modelo selecionado (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT) no Brasil. O quarto capítulo propõe uma metodologia de boas práticas para a calibração de modelos de bacias hidrográficas utilizando dados disponíveis, com foco principal na hidrologia. O capítulo cinco explora diferentes metodologias de calibração, utilizando dois algoritmos de otimização e abordagens de calibração em um local e demais locais para avaliar alterações relacionadas ao desempenho da modelagem. O capítulo seis trabalha com modelagem sub-diária, com um módulo de calibração horária automática, que foi incluído no SWAT-CUP, e aplicação destes modelos para previsão de vazões por conjunto e assimilação de dados com otimização, para melhorar a qualidade das previsões. O sétimo capítulo traz as conclusões gerais da tese e oitavo capítulo apresenta uma lista resumida de outras atividades desenvolvidas durante o doutorado. Acreditamos que as metodologias e resultados para a bacia hidrográfica Piracicaba são muito bons. E que podem ser replicados em outras bacias hidrográficas no Brasil e ao redor do mundo. O mapeamento de vulnerabilidade e riscos de inundação propostos pode ser aplicados para todo o Brasil, além de possuir potencial como uma ferramenta de planejamento. O modelo utilizado (SWAT) também provou ser versátil e robusto, com vários bons exemplos de aplicações no Brasil, e em especial para a Bacia do Piracicaba. A metodologia sistemática para calibração, bem como as diferentes calibrações executadas podem auxiliar outros modeladores a escolherem como calibrar seus próprios modelos. Este trabalho é pioneiro no tipo de aplicação horária apresentada. Os resultados de previsão por conjunto de vazões e de assimilação de dados mostram o potencial da metodologia para sistemas de previsão de vazões em tempo real e em sistemas de alerta antecipado. Nós acreditamos que as lições aprendidas nesta tese podem auxiliar modeladores e gestores de recursos hídricos ao redor do mundo.

This research was aimed to evaluate the possibility of using satellite precipitation products (SPPs) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of precipitation for better hydrologic simulations and flood forecasting in the trans-boundary Chenab River Basin (CRB) in Pakistan. This research was divided into three parts. In the first part, two renowned SPPs, i.e., global precipitation mission (GPM) IMERG-F v6 and tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7, were incorporated in a semidistributed hydrological model, i.e., the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), to assess the daily and monthly runoff pattern in Chenab River at the Marala Barrage gauging site in Pakistan. The results exhibit higher correlation between observed and simulated discharges at monthly timescale simulations rather than daily timescale simulations. Moreover, results show that IMERG-F is superior to 3B42 by indicating higher R2, higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and lower percent bias (PBIAS) at both monthly and daily timescale. In the second part, three latest half-hourly (HH) and daily (D) SPPs, i.e., 'IMERG-E', 'IMERGL', and 'IMERG-F', were evaluated for daily and monthly flow simulations in the SWAT model. The study revealed that monthly flow simulation performance is better than daily flow simulation in all sub-daily and daily SPPs-based models. Results depict that IMERGHHF and IMERG-DF yield the best performance among the other latency levels of SPPs. However, the IMERG-HHF based model has a reasonably higher daily correlation coefficient (R) and lower daily root mean square error (RMSE) than IMERG-DF. IMERG-HHF displays the lowest PBIAS for daily and monthly flow validations and it also represents relatively higher values of R2 and NSE than any other model for daily and monthly model validation. Moreover, the sub-daily IMERG based model outperformed the daily IMERG based model for all calibration and validation scenarios. IMERG-DL based model demonstrates poor performance among all of the SPPs, in daily and monthly flow validation, with low R2, low NSE, and high PBIAS. Additionally, the IMERG-HHE model outperformed IMERG-HHL. In the third and last part of this research, coupled hydro-meteorological precipitation information was used to forecast the 2016 flood event in the Chenab River Basin. The gaugecalibrated SPP, i.e., Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_Gauge), was selected to calibrate the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model for the 2016 flood event. Precipitation from the Global Forecast System (GFS) NWP, with nine different lead times up to 4 days, was used in the calibrated IFAS model. This study revealed that the hydrologic simulations in IFAS, with global GFS forecasts, were unable to predict the flood peak for all lead times. Later, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to downscale the precipitation forecasts with one-way and two-way nesting approaches. It was found in this study that the simulated hydrographs in the IFAS model, at different lead times, from the precipitation of two-way WRF nesting exhibited superior performance with the highest R2, NSE and the lowest PBIAS compared with one-way nesting. Moreover, it was concluded that the combination of GFS forecast and two-way WRF nesting can provide high-quality precipitation prediction to simulate flood hydrographs with a remarkable lead time of 96 h when applying coupled hydrometeorological flow simulation.