Globally, the current state of freshwater resource management is insufficient and impeding the chance at a sustainable future. Human interference within the natural hydrologic cycle is becoming dangerously irreversible and the need to redefine resource managerial approaches is imminent. This research involves the development of a coupled natural-human freshwater resource supply model using a System Dynamics approach. The model was applied to two case studies, Somalia, Africa and the Phoenix Active Management Area in Arizona, USA. It is suggested that System Dynamic modeling would be an invaluable tool for achieving sustainable freshwater resource management in individual watersheds. Through a series of thought experiments, a thorough understanding of the systems’ dynamic behaviors is obtainable for freshwater resource managers and policy-makers to examine various courses of action for alleviating freshwater supply concerns. This thesis reviews the model, its development and an analysis of several thought experiments applied to the case studies.

Scientific evidence points to a changing global climate. The most vital and visible impacts of this phenomenon for sea-level communities are sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and more frequent severe coastal storms. However, limited research has been conducted to date to project the damage from rising maximum water levels and corresponding storm surges, and their impacts on the sustainability of coastal communities. This research focuses on the urban coastal community of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island (P.E.I.), Canada as part of the C-Change International Community University research Alliance (ICURA), “Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities: Canada and the Caribbean.” The stochastic process that underlies, maximum observed water levels in Charlottetown, is modeled using historical data. Maximum observed water levels and storm surges are represented by fitted conditional and marginal univariate probability density functions. The statistical package “Easy-Fit” is used as a tool for analyzing goodness of fit to the historical data for maximum observed water levels in Charlottetown. A System Dynamics (SD) model, using STELLA, is developed to simulate the projected impacts of maximum observed water levels on the City of Charlottetown. The SD model captures the dynamics of the four pillars of community sustainability, namely Environmental, Economic, Social-Cultural and Human sectors identified for the City of Charlottetown. The model defines and evaluates the robustness of alternative adaptation strategies for various model scenarios to projected storms over a long-term planning period. The results quantify the vulnerability of Charlottetown. The analysis of the results from implementing 3 main adaptation strategies for protection, accommodation, and retreat scenarios as well as the ones from the most common current response of “doing nothing”, provide information on the dynamic and pillar-related impacts of storms on Charlottetown. Analysis of these strategy options clearly indicates that doing nothing in the face of more frequent severe storms is an inefficient strategy. Model results show that the protect strategy is unlikely to deliver complete protection, and the retreat option is costly and not well received. The accommodation strategy including a combination of protection options and controlled retreat will provide the most robust option for the coastal City of Charlottetown. The SD model and analysis provides a framework for the evaluation of adaptation strategies for alternative coastal communities.

Práce představuje teorii systémové dynamiky a její nástroje vhodné pro analýzu složitých ekonomických a sociálních systémů. V praktické části je s využitím simulačního počítačového modelu prováděna analýza faktorů úspěšnosti podniku v odvětví živočišné výroby - chovu kuřat.

Final thesis discusses about the influence of overtime and motivation to manage projects. The thesis highlights the positive characteristics about connection between the system dynamics and the project management. Includes basic theoretical definition of motivation, management control and overall project management. Analyze the possibility of using different methods, especially motivation to influence or stimulate the work flow. Highlights the positive qualities of the use of dynamic modeling and simulation to solve IS/ICTprojects. It examin the real situation of overtime influence on solving the problem. This situation is portrayed in the relevant diagrams of system dynamics and it is modeled in the program Powersim. The text also contains a detailed procedure for the entire solution.

This thesis deals with a design of a model of financial decision making in humans with limited cognitive resources under conditions of poverty, subsequent creation of a computer simulation based on this model, finding parameters in which this model generates a behavior close to real data and testing the behavior of the model under different conditions. The created model is based on current findings in fields of psychology and economics regarding decision making, limited cognitive resources and impact of poverty on cognitive resources and decision making. The model is created using the system dynamics methodology and subsequently, with the use of UML language, implemented into a computer simulation in programmable environment NetLogo. Testing the model showed its ability to generate a behavior close to real data and thus its potential to be used as a model for studying and understanding of the dealt problem and experimenting in order to finding new ways of dealing with the problem of poverty.

This work deals with system dynamics. Its main task is to create and description of the add-in to Excel that allows users to model the stock and flow model directly in Excel. Furthermore, there is discussed about the general theory of system dynamics, systems and models. There is also described the history of programming languages and their development to C #, in which the supplement was created. The thesis also presents competition created add-in.

The content of this diploma thesis is the analysis of Vodafone CZ, Inc. as the company, which is customer-oriented in close connection to the scientific field, system dynamics. Work contains definitions of basic theoretical concepts in the field of system dynamics, and the area of customer, especially his satisfaction and loyalty. In following description of the selected company, its basic characteristics and selection processes within the organization. Separate chapter describes methodology for measuring customer satisfaction, the Net Promoter Score. Either theoretical definition, either its practical use in society. One process is processed and selected within an proces analysis. Specifically, the inspection process, which is essential and necessary for the processing of customer interaction. The final part is the elaboration and validation of hypotheses, set out to verify the connection or relationship between the studied areas and subsequent benefit to selected society.

Necessary for the existence of every successful organization is achieving its objectives. In order to achieve these objectives, the organization must be properly managed. In today's rapidly changing times, one of the key areas of managerial work is also use various tools to support management and decisive actions. One of these tools include model development and subsequent implementation of the model simulations. Models provide the ability to experiment with various decisions, and thereby provide a basis for establishing appropriate policies and strategies. And these models properties can be used in the management of organizations. For creation of models exist many different approaches. One of these approaches is systems approach, which is including system dynamics. The task of this text was to establish a framework for the formation of systemic management model any organization that would help managers to improve management of the organization. To achieve this goals is necessary to develope general model of organization elements, describe their possible links and determine methodology of creating a system model of the organization.

There exist some concern regarding the sustainability of the production of R&D output and R&D capacity in South Africa. Recent trends indicated evidence of disinvestments and decay of South Africa’s R&D capacity. Questions arise concerning the detrimental effects these trends could have on South Africa’s ability to generate R&D output. As problems are addressed insufficiently and the system is allowed to decay, the costs of rebuilding the system might increase even further. The main research of objective of this thesis is to develop a computer simulation program of R&D performance and the creation of R&D output in the NSI. This model will in turn produce a tool to be used for policy testing, what-if scenario testing or policy optimisation. The purpose of the model is to simulate R&D output generated in the South African system of innovation and to model and explain the effect the presence/lack of long-term investment in R&D and R&D resources could have on the system’s ability to produce R&D output. In developing this model and by using the corresponding simulation programme, decision-makers in government and industry are provided with a tool to analyse policy alternatives. The model will provide a better understanding of the interrelationships between different elements of the NSI, in particular those interacting as funders and performers of R&D. This model will also aid decision makers in enhancing the efficiency of addressing problem areas within the South African R&D system. The contribution made by this thesis to the body of knowledge is that the development of a system dynamic model will result in the establishment of a dynamic hypothesis of the development of new knowledge through R&D in an R&D performing sector. The dynamic hypothesis will in turn lead to a method for modelling the effect of R&D investment on the development of an R&D capacity, i.e. the system’s ability to absorbed knowledge and produce R&D output. The above is essentially a dynamic description of the process around creating and absorbing knowledge through R&D activities. / Thesis (PhD (Engineering Management))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Graduate School of Technology Management (GSTM) / PhD / Unrestricted

This dissertation delivers a framework to diagnose the Bull-Whip Effect (BWE) in supply chains and then identify methods to minimize it. Such a framework is needed because in spite of the significant amount of literature discussing the bull-whip effect, many companies continue to experience the wide variations in demand that are indicative of the bull-whip effect. While the theory and knowledge of the bull-whip effect is well established, there still is the lack of an engineering framework and method to systematically identify the problem, diagnose its causes, and identify remedies. The present work seeks to fill this gap by providing a holistic, systems perspective to bull-whip identification and diagnosis. The framework employs the SCOR reference model to examine the supply chain processes with a baseline measure of demand amplification. Then, research of the supply chain structural and behavioral features is conducted by means of the system dynamics modeling method. The contribution of the diagnostic framework, is called Demand Amplification Protocol (DAMP), relies not only on the improvement of existent methods but also contributes with original developments introduced to accomplish successful diagnosis. DAMP contributes a comprehensive methodology that captures the dynamic complexities of supply chain processes. The method also contributes a BWE measurement method that is suitable for actual supply chains because of its low data requirements, and introduces a BWE scorecard for relating established causes to a central BWE metric. In addition, the dissertation makes a methodological contribution to the analysis of system dynamic models with a technique for statistical screening called SS-Opt, which determines the inputs with the greatest impact on the bull-whip effect by means of perturbation analysis and subsequent multivariate optimization. The dissertation describes the implementation of the DAMP framework in an actual case study that exposes the approach, analysis, results and conclusions. The case study suggests a balanced solution between costs and demand amplification can better serve both firms and supply chain interests. Insights pinpoint to supplier network redesign, postponement in manufacturing operations and collaborative forecasting agreements with main distributors.