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In this thesis I document the biostratigraphy of two Cretaceous sections in Pakistan, the Chichali Nala Section and the Moghal Kot Section. Furthermore, I document the stratigraphy of the so-called Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) in the Moghal Kot Section. In addition, I establish potential links between the planktonic foraminiferal evolution and these OAEs in the Moghal Kot Section. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are established for the Valanginian time by using the TEX86 and δ18O proxies in the Chichali Nala Section. The new biostratigraphy of the Chichali Nala Section shows that the ages of the sediments are mainly Valanginian. The biostratigraphy of the Moghal Kot Section show ranges in age from the Early Aptian to Early Maastrichtian. Seven OAEs were recorded in the Moghal Kot Section based on the combined study of biostratigraphy, microfacies, and δ13C analysis. These OAEs correlate well with previously documented OAEs elsewhere, therefore the new record of the OAEs in the Moghal Kot Section confirms the widespread occurrence of these events, possibly all global in nature. A quantitative review of the planktonic foraminiferal evolution in the Moghal Kot Section indicates that the environmental changes along the OAE2 have strongly forced the evolution of the planktonic foraminifera. Conversely, no clear relationship is observed between other OAEs and planktonic foraminiferal evolution in the same section. The SST results based on the TEX86 in the Chichali Nala Section show that the surface ocean was consistently much warmer (10-12 oC) than today at the paleolatitude of ~-35o during the Valanginian time. Such warm conditions are also supported by the spore and pollen assemblages of the Chichali Nala Section. Collectively the two datasets indicate strongly that the Valanginian world was overall extremely warm. Such warming during the Valanginian is incompatible with previously suggested cooler conditions during this time period.

The current accepted methods for assessing the effect of water temperatures on sea turtle nesting, utilizes sea surface temperatures (SST). Since Loggerhead sea turtles spend the majority of their time near the ocean floor, often below a thermocline, bottom temperature analysis should be a better estimate of actual temperature experienced by the sea turtles, therefore, correlating better to nesting events. Thermograph data sensors were placed along three reef tracts that run parallel to Broward County, Florida’s coastline, to collect bottom seawater temperatures from the year 2004 through 2006. Detrended average daily bottom temperatures were compared to detrended Loggerhead sea turtle nest counts collected by daily beach monitoring throughout the county. The comparisons confirmed that during the years 2004 and 2006, up to 29.6% of the fluctuations in sea turtle nesting can be associated to the short-term changes in bottom water temperature. r2-values of 0.2963 and 0.2948 were determined along the Broward County coastline, with p-values<0.001. No significant correlations were found in the year 2005 when bottom water temperature variations were smaller than in the other years. This evaluation shows that Loggerhead sea turtle nesting counts can be highly correlated to bottom seawater temperatures, in Broward County, Florida. Better understanding of a location’s temperature fluctuations can lead to a better management and conservation plan for the associated species and habitat.

Global warming is affecting the Earth climate year by year, the biggest difference being observable in increasing temperatures in the World Ocean. Following the long- term global ocean warming trend, average sea surface temperatures across the global tropics and subtropics have increased by 0.4–1◦C in the last 40 years. These rates become even higher in semi-enclosed southern seas, such as the Red Sea, threaten- ing the survival of thermal-sensitive species. As average sea surface temperatures are projected to continue to rise, careful study of future developments of extreme temper- atures is paramount for the sustainability of marine ecosystem and biodiversity. In this thesis, we use Extreme-Value Theory to study sea surface temperature extremes from a gridded dataset comprising 16703 locations over the Red Sea. The data were provided by Operational SST and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA), a satellite-based data system designed for numerical weather prediction. After pre-processing the data to account for seasonality and global trends, we analyze the marginal distribution of ex- tremes, defined as observations exceeding a high spatially varying threshold, using the Generalized Pareto distribution. This model allows us to extrapolate beyond the ob- served data to compute the 100-year return levels over the entire Red Sea, confirming the increasing trend of extreme temperatures. To understand the dynamics govern- ing the dependence of extreme temperatures in the Red Sea, we propose a flexible local approach based on R-Pareto processes, which extend the univariate Generalized Pareto distribution to the spatial setting. Assuming that the sea surface temperature varies smoothly over space, we perform inference based on the gradient score method over small regional neighborhoods, in which the data are assumed to be stationary in space. This approach allows us to capture spatial non-stationarity, and to reduce the overall computational cost by taking advantage of distributed computing resources. Our results reveal an interesting extremal spatial dependence structure: in particular, from our estimated model, we conclude that significant extremal dependence prevails for distances up to about 2500 km, which roughly corresponds to the Red Sea length.

Reef-building corals are subject to high amounts of stress, including pollution and rising sea surface temperatures due to climate change. These factors can affect the ability of corals to produce their calcium carbonate skeletons. Evaluation of the effects of climate change may be facilitated by evaluation of records of coral skeletal growth over a long period of time. The aim of this study was to evaluate skeletal growth of the coral Orbicella faveolata in La Parguera, Puerto Rico over a 32-year period. For this, 14 Orbicella faveolata core samples were collected from corals at two reefs (1.2 km apart) in southwestern Puerto Rico. Coral cores were used to obtain skeletal growth data. Average skeletal extension, density, and calcification was determined for subannual and annual periods, and compared between sites. Time series and growth master chronologies were constructed and compared between corals at the two reef sites. In addition, sea surface temperature (SST) data was obtained and summarized into time series, and correlated with coral growth chronologies for the 32-year period. Results showed that two Orbicella faveolata, growth parameters (extension and calcification) were similar between Turrumote and Pinnacles reefs, while density was non-significantly greater on Pinnacles Reef between 1973 and 2004. SST had a weak, and non-significant correlation to growth parameters over time.

Around Sri Lanka and to the south of India sea surface temperatures (SST) are cooler compared to the surrounding region during summer monsoon. This region where SSTs are relatively cooler is known as the cold pool. Owing to its possible impact on monsoon variability, some studies have been carried out to understand the evolution of cold pool SST during this period. These studies suggest, coastal upwelling along southern coast of Sri Lanka and eastward advection of cooler water contributes to the decrease in SST during summer monsoon. However, the processes leading to the formation of cold pool, still, remain unknown. In this study, we have investigated the mechanism responsible for the formation and maintenance of southern Bay of Bengal (BOB) cold pool using high resolution satellite data, model simulations and in-situ observations for the year 2009. Our study reveals formation of cold pool is dominated by atmospheric processes, whereas oceanic processes dominate its maintenance. Cooling of SSTs during premonsoon and onset phase acts as a prerequisites for the formation of cold pool, which are linked to the reduction in Net Heat flux (NHFX) during theses periods. The changes in NHFX during premonsoon and onset phase are dominated by reduction in Short-wave (SW) radiation associated with strong convective activity over cold pool. Convective activity over the cold pool are associated with the northward movement of Maximum Cloud Zone (MCZ) that forms over Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) during these periods. SST within the cold pool after the steady increase during February-April months, cools first during premonsoon rain event and then during monsoon onset. Analysis of high resolution satellite data for the period 2003-2009 suggest that, these sequence of events occurs with minor amount of inter-annual variability. Lead-lag correlation also made it clear that SST response in 5 days to the corresponding variation in atmospheric processes. SST within the cold pool shows several intraseasonal cooling events during the summer mon-soon. Considering that rainfall above the cold pool is very low during the summer monsoon, these cooling events occurring within the summer should be necessary for maintaining the cold pool. The seasonal evolution of SST shows that it continues to decrease till the end of the summer monsoon. In-situ data collected during CTCZ field program in 2009, at two time series locations (TSL) and model simulations were used to determine the processes responsible for such cooling events. To estimate the contribution from advection to the observed SST tendency at fixed location, a measurement stratergy called ‘opertaion advection’ was used in this study. This stratergy involves measurement of oceanographic parameters along four edges from TSL directod along North, South, East and West for estimation of horizontal temperature gradients. Our results from SST cooling events captured by CTD at two fixed locations suggests that horizontal advection and entrainment dominate the SST evolution. Model temperature equation evaluated near the TSLs are convinient with the observations and suggest that atmospheric forcing is not responsible for intraseasonal cooling events.

Attempts to quantify the effects of ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on scleractinian corals provide a growing body of response measurements. However, placing empirical results into an ecological context is challenging, owing to variations that reflect both natural heterogeneity and scientific bias. This study addresses the heterogeneity of climate change induced changes in coral recruitment and calcification. To discern scientific bias and identify drivers of the remaining heterogeneity, 100 publications were analyzed using a combination of weighted mixed effects meta-regression and factorial effect size meta‑analysis. A linear model was applied to quantify the variation caused by differing stress levels across studies. The least squares predictions were then used to standardize individual study outcomes and effect size meta-analysis was performed on original and standardized outcomes separately. On average, increased temperature significantly reduces larval survival, while ocean acidification impedes settlement and calcification. Coral resistance to OAW is likely governed by biological traits (genera and life cycle stage), environmental factors (abiotic variability) and experimental design (feeding regime, stressor magnitude, and exposure duration). Linear models suggest that calcification rates are driven by carbonate and bicarbonate concentrations, which act additively with warming. Standardizing outcomes to linear model predictions proved useful in discerning strong sources of scientific bias. The approach used in this study can improve modelling projections and inform policy and management on changes in coral community structure associated with the expected future intensification of OAW.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)