京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23151号 / 工博第4795号 / 新制||工||1750(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 澤田 純男, 教授 清野 純史, 准教授 後藤 浩之 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

Turkey is one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world. The study area, Erbaa, is located in a seismically active fault zone known as North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Erbaa is one of the towns of Tokat located in the Middle Black Sea Region. According to the Earthquake zoning map of Turkey, the study area is in the First Degree Earthquake Zone. The city center of Erbaa (Tokat) was previously settled on the left embankment of Kelkit River. After the disastrous 1942 Niksar-Erbaa earthquake (Mw = 7.2), the settlement was moved southwards. From the period of 1900s, several earthquakes occurred in this region and around Erbaa. The 1942 earthquake is the most destructive earthquake in the center of Erbaa settlement. In this study, the geological and geotechnical properties of the study area were investigated by detailed site investigations. The Erbaa settlement is located on alluvial and Pliocene deposits. The Pliocene clay, silt, sand, and gravel layers exist in the southern part of Erbaa. Alluvium in Erbaa region consists of gravelly, sandy, silty, and clayey layers. The alluvial deposits are composed of stratified materials of heterogeneous grain sizes, derived from various geological units in the vicinity. The main objective of this study is to prepare a seismic microzonation map of the study area for urban planning purposes since it is getting more essential to plan new settlements considering safe development strategies after the disastrous earthquakes. In this respect, seismic hazard analyses were performed to deterministically assess the seismic hazard of the study area. Afterwards, the essential ground motions were predicted regarding near fault effects as the study area is settled on an active fault zone. 1-D equivalent linear site response analyses were carried out to evaluate the site effects in the study area. Amplification values obtained from site response analyses reveal that the soil layers in the study area is quite rigid. Furthermore, liquefaction potential and post liquefaction effects including lateral spreading and vertical settlement were also delineated for the study area. The above-mentioned parameters were taken into account in order to prepare a final seismic microzonation map of the study area. The layers were evaluated on the basis of overlay methodologies including Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). Two different MCDA techniques, Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), were carried out in GIS environment. The seismic microzonation maps prepared by SAW and AHP methods are compared to obtain a final seismic microzonation map. Finally, the map derived from the AHP method is proposed to be the final seismic microzonation map of Erbaa. As an overall conclusion, the northwestern part of the study area where the loose alluvial units exist is found to be vulnerable to earthquake-induced deformations. On the other hand, the Pliocene units in the southern and alluvial units in the northeastern part are quite resistant to earthquake effects. In addition, the proposed final seismic microzonation map should be considered by urban planners and policy makers during urban planning projects in Erbaa.

Mankind is facing the problem due to earthquake hazard since prehistoric times. Many of the developed and developing countries are under constant threats from earthquakes hazards. Theories of plate tectonics and engineering seismology have helped to understand earthquakes and also to predicate earthquake hazards on a regional scale. However, the regional scale hazard mapping in terms of seismic zonation has been not fully implemented in many of the developing countries like India. Agglomerations of large population in the Indian cities and poor constructions have raised the risk due to various possible seismic hazards. First and foremost step towards hazard reduction is estimation of the seismic hazards in regional scale. Objective of this study is to estimate the seismic hazard parameters for Lucknow, a part of Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) and develop regional scale microzonation map. Lucknow is a highly populated city which is located close to the active seismic belt of Himalaya. This belt came into existence during the Cenozoic era (40-50 million years ago) and is a constant source of seismic threats. Many of the devastating earthquakes which have happened since prehistoric times such as 1255 Nepal, 1555 Srinagar, 1737 Kolkata, 1803 Nepal, 1833 Kathmandu, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2005 Kashmir. Historic evidences show that many of these earthquakes had caused fatalities even up to 0.1 million. At present, in the light of building up strains and non-occurrence of a great event in between 1905 Kangra earthquake and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake regions the stretch has been highlighted as central seismic gap. This location may have high potential of great earthquakes in the near future. Geodetic studies in these locations indicate a possible slip of 9.5 m which may cause an event of magnitude 8.7 on Richter scale in the central seismic gap. Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh has a population of 2.8 million as per Census 2011. It lies in ZONE III as per IS1893: 2002 and can be called as moderate seismic region. However, the city falls within 350 km radial distance from Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and active regional seismic source of the Lucknow-Faizabad fault. Considering the ongoing seismicity of Himalayan region and the Lucknow-Faizabad fault, this city is under high seismic threat. Hence a comprehensive study of understanding the earthquake hazards on a regional scale for the Lucknow is needed. In this work the seismic microzonation of Lucknow has been attempted. The whole thesis is divided into 11 chapters. A detailed discussion on the importance of this study, seismicity of Lucknow, and methodology adopted for detailed seismic hazard assessment and microzonation are presented in first three chapters. Development of region specific Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and seismic hazard estimation at bedrock level using highly ranked GMPEs are presented in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively. Subsurface lithology, measurement of dynamic soil properties and correlations are essential to assess region specific site effects and liquefaction potential. Discussion on the experimental studies, subsurface profiling using geotechnical and geophysical tests results and correlation between shear wave velocity (SWV) and standard penetration test (SPT) N values are presented in Chapter 6. Detailed shear wave velocity profiling with seismic site classification and ground response parameters considering multiple ground motion data are discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Chapters 9 and 10 present the assessment of liquefaction potential and determination of hazard index with microzonation maps respectively. Conclusions derived from each chapter are presented in Chapter 11. A brief summary of the work is presented below: Attenuation relations or GMPEs are important component of any seismic hazard analysis which controls accurate prediction of the hazard values. Even though the Himalayas have experienced great earthquakes since ancient times, suitable GMPEs which are applicable for a wide range of distance and magnitude are limited. Most of the available regional GMPEs were developed considering limited recorded data and/or pure synthetic ground motion data. This chapter presents development of a regional GMPE considering both the recorded as well as synthetic ground motions. In total 14 earthquakes consisting of 10 events with recorded data and 4 historic events with Isoseismal maps are used for the same. Synthetic ground motions based on finite fault model have been generated at unavailable locations for recorded events and complete range distances for historic earthquakes. Model parameters for synthetic ground motion were arrived by detailed parametric study and from literatures. A concept of Apparent Stations (AS) has been used to generate synthetic ground motion in a wide range of distance as well as direction around the epicenter. Synthetic ground motion data is validated by comparing with available recorded data and peak ground acceleration (PGA) from Isoseismal maps. A new GMPE has been developed based on two step stratified regression procedure considering the combined dataset of recorded and synthetic ground motions. The new GMPE is validated by comparing with three recently recorded earthquakes events. GMPE proposed in this study is capable of predicting PGA values close to recorded data and spectral acceleration up to period of 2 seconds. Comparison of new GMPE with the recorded data of recent earthquakes shows a good matching of ground motion as well as response spectra. The new GMPE is applicable for wide range of earthquake magnitudes from 5 to 9 on Mw scale. Reduction of future earthquake hazard is possible if hazard values are predicted precisely. A detailed seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study considering deterministic and probabilistic approaches. New seismotectonic map has been generated for Lucknow considering a radial distance of 350 km around the city centre, which also covers active Himalayan plate boundaries. Past earthquakes within the seismotectonic region have been collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Northern California Earthquake Data Centre (NCEDC), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Seismic Atlas of India and its Environs (SEISAT) etc. A total of 1831 events with all the magnitude range were obtained. Collected events were homogenized, declustered and filtered for Mw ≥ 4 events. A total of 496 events were found within the seismic study region. Well delineated seismic sources are compiled from SEISAT. Superimposing the earthquake catalogue on the source map, a seismotectonic map of Lucknow was generated. A total of 47 faults which have experienced earthquake magnitude of 4 and above are found which are used for seismic hazard analysis. Based on the distribution of earthquake events on the seismotectonic map, two regions have been identified. Region I which shows high density of seismic events in the area in and around of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Region II which consists of area surrounding Lucknow with sparse distribution of earthquake events. Data completeness analysis and estimation of seismic parameter “a” and “b” are carried out separately for both the regions. Based on the analysis, available earthquake data is complete for a period of 80 years in both the regions. Using the complete data set, the regional recurrence relations have been developed. It shows a “b” value of 0.86 for region I and 0.9 for Region II which are found comparable with earlier studies. Maximum possible earthquake magnitude in each source has been estimated using observed magnitude and doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation. The study area of Lucknow is divided into 0.015o x 0.015o grid size and PGA at each grid has been estimated by considering all sources and the three GMPEs. A Matlab code was generated for seismic hazard analysis and maximum PGA value at each grid point was determined and mapped. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) shows that maximum expected PGA values at bedrock level varies from 0.05g in the eastern part to 0.13g in the northern region. Response spectrum at city centre is also developed up to a period of 2 seconds. Further, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out and PGA values for 10 % and 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years have been estimated and mapped. PSHA for 10 % probability shows PGA variation from 0.035g in the eastern parts to 0.07g in the western and northern parts of Lucknow. Similarly PSHA for 2 % probability of exceedence indicates PGA variation from 0.07g in the eastern parts while the northern parts are expecting PGA of 0.13g. Uniform hazard spectra are also developed for 2 % and 10 % probability for a period of up to 2 seconds. The seismic hazard analyses in this study show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are more vulnerable when compared to other part. Bedrock hazard values completely change due to subsoil properties when it reaches the surface. A detailed geophysical and geotechnical investigation has been carried out for subsoil profiling and seismic site classification. The study area has been divided into grids of 2 km x 2 km and roughly one geophysical test using MASW (Multichannel Analysis Surface Wave) has been carried out in each grid and the shear wave velocity (SWV) profiles of subsoil layers are obtained. A total of 47 MASW tests have been carried out and which are uniformly distributed in Lucknow. In addition, 12 boreholes have also been drilled with necessary sampling and measurement of N-SPT values at 1.5 m interval till a depth of 30 m. Further, 11 more borelog reports are collected from the same agency hired for drilling the boreholes. Necessary laboratory tests are conducted on disturbed and undisturbed soil samples for soil classification and density measurement. Based on the subsoil informations obtained from these boreholes, two cross-sections up to a depth of 30 m have been generated. These cross-sections show the presence of silty sand in the top 10 m at most of the locations followed by clayey sand of low to medium compressibility till a depth of 30 m. In between the sand and clay traces of silt were also been found in many locations. In addition to these boreholes, 20 deeper boreholes (depth ≥150 m) are collected from Jal Nigam (Water Corporation) Lucknow, Government of Uttar Pradesh. Typical cross-section along the alignment of these deeper boreholes has been generated up to 150 m depth. This cross-section shows the presence of fine sand near Gomati while other locations are occupied by surface clayey sand. Also, the medium sand has been found in the western part of the city at a depth of 110 m which continues till 150 m depth. On careful examination of MASW and boreholes with N-SPT, 17 locations are found very close and SWV and N-SPT values are available up to 30 m depth. These SWV and N-SPT values are complied and used to develop correlations between SWV and N-SPT for sandy soil, clayey soil and all soil types. This correlation is the first correlation for IGB soil deposits considered measured data up to 30 m. The new correlation is verified graphically using normal consistency ratio and standard percentage error with respect to measured N-SPT and SWV. Further, SWV and N-SPT profiles are used Another important earthquake induced hazard is liquefaction. Even though many historic earthquakes caused liquefaction in India, very limited attempt has been made to map liquefaction potential in IGB. In this study, a detailed liquefaction analysis has been carried out for Lucknow a part of Ganga Basin to map liquefaction potential. Initially susceptibility of liquefaction for soil deposits has been assessed by comparing the grain size distribution curve obtained from laboratory tests with the range of grain size distribution for potentially liquefiable soils. Most of surface soil deposits in the study area are susceptible to liquefaction. At all the 23 borehole locations, measured N-SPT values are corrected for (a) Overburden Pressure (CN), (b) Hammer energy (CE), (c) Borehole diameter (CB), (d) presence or absence of liner (CS), (e) Rod length (CR) and (f) fines content (Cfines). Surface PGA values at each borehole locations are used to estimate Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR). Corrected N-SPT values [(N1)60CS] are used to estimate Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR) at each layer. CSR and CRR values are used to estimate Factor of Safety (FOS) against liquefaction in each layer. Least factor safety values are indentified from each location and presented liquefaction factor of safety map for average and maximum amplified PGA values. These maps highlight that northern, western and central parts of Lucknow are very critical to critical against liquefaction while southern parts shows moderate to low critical area. The entire alignment of river Gomati falls in very critical to critical regions for liquefaction. Least FOS shows worst scenario and does not account thickness of liquefiable soil layers. Further, these FOS values are used to determine Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) of each site and developed LPI map. Based on LPI map, the Gomati is found as high to very high liquefaction potential region. Southern and the central parts of Lucknow show low to moderate liquefaction potential while the northern and western Lucknow has moderate to high liquefaction potential. All possible seismic hazards maps for Lucknow have been combined to develop final microzonation map in terms of hazard index values. Hazard index maps are prepared by combining rock PGA map, site classification map in terms of shear wave velocity, amplification factor map, and FOS map and predominant period map by adopting Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). All these parameters have been given here in the order starting with maximum weight of 6 for PGA to lower weight of 1 for predominant frequency. Normalized weights of each parameter have been estimated. Depending upon the variation of each hazard parameter values, three to five ranks are assigned and the normalized ranks are calculated. Final hazard index values have been estimated by multiplying normalized ranks of each parameter with the normalized weights. Microzonation map has been generated by mapping hazard index values. Three maps were generated based on DSHA, PSHA for 2% and 10 % probability of exceedence in 50 years. Hazard index maps from DSHA and PSHA for 2 % probability show similar pattern. Higher hazard index were obtained in northern and western parts of Lucknow and lower values in others. The new microzonation maps can help in dividing the Lucknow into three parts as high area i.e. North western part, moderate hazard area i.e. central part and low hazard area which covers southern and eastern parts of Lucknow. This microzonation is different from the current seismic code where all area is lumped in one zone without detailed assessment of different earthquake hazard parameters. Finally this study brings out first region specific GMPE considering recorded and synthetic ground monitions for wide range of magnitudes and distances. Proposed GMPE can also be used in other part of the Himalayan region as it matches well with the highly ranked GMPEs. Detailed rock level PGA map has been generated for Lucknow considering DSHA and PSHA. A detailed geotechnical and geophysical experiments are carried out in Lucknow. These results are used to develop correction between SWV and N-SPT values for soil deposit in IGB and site classification maps for the study area. Amplification and liquefaction potential of Lucknow are estimated by considering multiple ground motions data to account different earthquake ground motion amplitude, duration and frequency, which is unique in the seismic microzonation study.

Past earthquakes have demonstrated that Indian sub-continent is highly vulnerable to earthquake hazards. It has been estimated that about 59 percent of the land area of the Indian subcontinent has potential risk from moderate to severe earthquakes (NDMA, 2010). Major earthquakes in the last 20 years such as Khillari (30th September 1993), Jabalpur (22nd May 1997), Chamoli (29th March 1999) and Bhuj (26th January 2001) earthquakes have resulted in more than 23,000 deaths and extensive damage to infrastructure (NDMA, 2010). Although it is well known that the major earthquake hazard prone areas in India are the Himalayan region (inter-plate zone) and the north-east region, (subduction zone) the seismicity of Peninsular India cannot be underestimated. Many studies (Seeber et al., 1999; Rao, 2000; Gangrade & Arora, 2000) have proved that the seismicity of Peninsular India is significantly high and may lead to earthquakes of sizeable magnitude. This necessitates a seismic zonation for the country, as well as various regions in it. Seismic zonation is the first step towards an effective earthquake risk mitigation study. Seismic zonation is a process in which a large region is demarcated into small zones based on the levels of earthquake hazard. Seismic zonation is generally carried out at three different levels based on the aerial extent of the region, importance of site and the population. They are micro-level, meso-level and macro-level. The macro-level zonation is generally carried out for large landmass such as a state or a country. The earthquake hazard parameters used for macro-level zoning are generally evaluated with less reliability. The typical example of a macro-level zonation is the seismic zonation map of India prepared by BIS-1893 (2002), where the entire India is demarcated into four seismic zones based on past seismicity and tectonic conditions. Generally the macro-level seismic zonation is carried out based on peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) estimated at bedrock level without giving emphasis on the local soil conditions. Seismic zonation at the meso-level is carried out for cities and urban centers with a population greater than 5,00,000. The earthquake hazard parameters, for the meso-level zonation are evaluated with greater degree of reliability, compared to the macro-level zoning. The micro-level zonation is carried out for sites which host critical installations such as nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the NPPs are considered as very sensitive structures, the earthquake parameters, for the micro-level zonation of the NPP sites are estimated with a highest degree of reliability. The local soil conditions and site effects are properly counted for carrying out the micro as well as the meso-level zonation. Several researchers have carried out meso-level zonation considering effects of all major earthquake hazards such as PHA, site amplification, liquefaction (Mohanty et al., 2007; Nath et al., 2008; Sitharam & Anbazhagan, 2008 etc.) Even though the above definitions and descriptions are available for various levels of zonation, the key issue lies in the adoption of the suitable one for a given region. There are only a few guidelines available regarding the use of a particular level of zonation for a given study area. Based on the recommendation of the disaster management authority, the government of India has initiated the seismic zonation of all major cities in India. As it is evident that large resources are required in order to carry out seismic site characterization and site effect estimation, both the micro and meso-level zonations cannot be carried out for all these cities. Hence there is a need to propose appropriate guidelines to define the suitability of each level zonation for various re-gions in the country. Moreover there are many methodologies available for site characterization and estimation of site effects such as site amplification and liquefaction. The appropriateness of these methodologies for various levels of seismic zonations also needs to be assessed in order to optimize use of resources for seismic zonation. Hence in the present study, appropriate techniques for site characterization and earthquake hazard estimation for regions at different scale levels were determined. Using the appropriate techniques, the seismic zonation was carried out both at the micro and macro-level, incorporating all major earthquake hazards. The state of Karnataka and the Kalpakkam NPP site were chosen for the macro and micro−level seismic zonation in this study. Kalpakkam NPP site is situated in Tamil Nadu, India, 70 kilometres south of Chennai city. The NPP site covers an area of 3000 acres. The site is situated along the Eastern coastal belt of India known as Coromandel coast with Bay of Bengal on the east side. The NPP site host major facilities such as Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS), Fast Reactor Fuel Reprocessing (FRFC) Plant, Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) etc. The state Karnataka lies in the southern part of India, covering an area of 1,91,791 km2, thus approximately constituting 5.83% of the total geographical area of India. Both the study areas lie in the Indian Peninsular which is identified as one of the most prominent and largest Precambrian shield region of the world. The first and foremost step towards the seismic zonation is to prepare a homogenised earthquake catalogue. All the earthquake events within 300 km radius from the boundary of two study areas were collected from various national and international agencies. The earthquake events thus obtained were found to be in different magnitude scales and hence all these events were converted to the moment magnitude scale. A declustering procedure was applied to the earthquake catalogue of the two study area in order to remove aftershocks, foreshocks and dependent events. The completeness analysis was carried out and the seismicity parameters for the two study areas were evaluated based on the complete part of earthquake catalogues. The next major step toward the estimation of earthquake hazard and seismic zonation is the identification and mapping of the earthquake sources. Three source models, mainly; 1) linear source model, 2) point source model and 3) areal source model were used in the present study for characterizing earthquake sources in the two study areas. All the linear sources (faults and lineaments) within 300 km radius from the boundary of two study areas were identified and mapped from SEISAT (2000). In addition to SEISAT (2000), some lineaments were also mapped from the works of Ganesha Raj & Nijagunappa (2004). These lineaments and faults were mapped and georeferenced in a GIS platform on which earthquake events were then super-imposed to give seismotectonic atlas. Seismotectonic atlas was prepared for both the study areas. The point source model (Costa et al. 1993; Panza et al. 1999) and areal source model (Frankel, 1995) were also adopted in this work. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was found to be appropriated for micro, meso and macro-level zonations. Hence in the present study, the seismic hazard at bedrock level, both at the micro and macro-level were evaluated using the deterministic as well as the probabilistic methodologies. In order to address the epistemic uncertainties in source models and attenuation relations, a logic tree methodology was incorporated with the deterministic and probabilistic approaches. As the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) considers only the critical scenario, knowing the maximum magnitude that can occur at a source and the shortest distance between that source and the site and the peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at that site is estimated using the frequency dependent attenuation relation. Both for the micro as well as the macro-level, the DSHA was carried out, considering grid sizes of 0.001◦ × 0.001◦ and 0.05◦ × 0.05◦respectively. A MATLAB program was developed to evaluate PHA at the center of each of these grid points. The epistemic uncertainties in source models and attenuation relations have been addressed using a logic tree approach (Bommer et al., 2005). A typical logic tree consists of a series of nodes to which several models with different weightages are assigned. Allotment of these weightages to different branch depends upon the degree of uncertainties in the model, and its accuracy. However the sum of all weightages of different branches at a particular node must be unity. Two types of seismic sources are employed in DSHA and they are linear and smoothed point sources. Since both the types of sources were of equal importance, equal weightages were assigned to each of them. The focal depth in the present study was taken as 15 km. The attenuation properties of the region were modelled using three attenuation relations, Viz. Campbell & Bozorgnia (2003), Atkinson & Boore (2006) and Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). The attenuation relation proposed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007) was given higher weightage of 0.4 since it was devel-oped for the Indian peninsular region. The attenuation relations by Atkinson & Boore (2006) and Campbell & Bozorgnia (2003) which were developed for Eastern North American shield region, shared equal weightages of 0.3. Maps showing spatial variation of PHA value at bedrock level, for both micro and macro-level are presented. Response spectra at the rock level for important location in the two study areas were evaluated for 8 different periods of oscillations, and the results are presented in this thesis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) incorporating logic tree approach was per-formed for both micro as well as macro-level considering similar grid sizes as in DSHA. Two types of seismic sources considered in the PSHA are linear sources and smoothed gridded areal sources (Frankel, 1995) with equal weightage distribution in the logic tree structure. Smoothed gridded areal sources can also account the scattered earthquake events. The hypocentral distance was calculated by considering a focal depth of 15 km, as in the case of DSHA method. A MAT-LAB program was developed for PSHA. The same attenuation relations employed in DSHA were used in PSHA as well with the same weightage allotment in logic tree structure. Considering all major uncertainties, a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS), showing the variation of PHA values with the mean annual rate of exceedance (MARE), was evaluated for each grid point. From the uniform hazard response spectrum, the PHA corresponding to any return period can be evaluated. Maps showing the spatial variation of PHA value at bedrock level, corresponding to 475 year and 2500 year return periods for both micro and macro-level are presented. Response spectra at the rock level for important location in two study areas were evaluated for eight different periods of oscillations, and the results are presented in this thesis. In order to assess various earthquake hazards like ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction, a thorough understanding of geotechnical properties of the top overburden soil mass is essential. As these earthquake hazards strongly depend on the geotechnical properties of the soil, site characterization based on these properties will provide a better picture of these hazards. In the present study, seismic site characterization was carried both at the micro and macro-level using average shear wave velocity for top 30 m overburden (Vs30). At the micro-level, the shear wave velocity profile at major locations was evaluated using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) tests. MASW is an indirect geophysical method used in geotechnical investigations and near surface soil characterization based on the dispersion characteristics of surface waves (Park et al., 1999). The MASW test setup consists of 24-channel geophones of 4.5 Hz capacity. A 40 kg propelled energy generator (PEG) was used for generating surface wave. Based on the recordings of geophones, the dispersion characteristics of surface waves were evaluated in terms of a dispersion curve. The shear wave velocity (Vs) profile at a particular location was determined by performing inversion analysis (Xia et al., 1999). After the evaluation of V s profile at all major locations, the site characterization at the micro-level was carried out as per NEHRP (BSSC, 2003) and IBC (2009) recommendations. Maps showing the spatial distribution of various site classes at the micro-level are presented in this thesis. Standard penetration tests were also carried out in the site as part of subsurface investigation and in this study a new correlation between V s and corrected SPT-N values was also developed. Apart from carrying out site characterization, low strain soil stiffness profile was evaluated based on SPT and MASW data. In this work, seismic site characterization at the macro-level was also carried out. As it is not physically and economically viable to carry out geotechnical and geophysical testing for such a large area, like the Karnataka state, the seismic site characterization was carried out based on topographic slope maps. Wald & Allen (2007) has reported that the topographic slope is a perfect indicator of site conditions. Based on the correlation studies carried out for different regions, Wald & Allen (2007) has proposed slope ranges corresponding to each site class. In this study, the topographic map for the entire state of Karnataka was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model GDEM. This thesis also presents a comparison study between the Vs30map generated from topographic slope data and Vs30map developed using geophysical field tests, for Bangalore and Chennai. Based on this study, it is concluded that topographic slopes can be used for developing Vs30maps for meso and macro-level with reasonable accuracy. The topographic map for macro-level was generated at a grid size of 0.05◦ × 0.05◦. Based on the value of slope at a particular grid point, the Vs30for that grid point was assigned as per Wald & Allen (2007). A similar procedure was repeated for all the grid points. Spatial variation of various seismic site classes for the macro-level has been presented in this work. The site amplification hazard was estimated for both micro and the macro-level. The assessment of site amplification is very important for shallow founded structures and other geotechnical structures like retaining walls and dams, floating piles and underground structures as the possible earthquake damages are mostly due to extensive shaking. The site amplification hazard at the micro-level was estimated using 1D equivalent linear ground response analyses. The earthquake motion required for carrying out ground response analysis was simulated from a target response spectrum. 1D equivalent linear analyses were performed using SHAKE 2000 software. Spatial variations of surface level PHA values, site amplification, predominant frequency throughout the study area are presented in this work. As it is not physically viable to assess site amplification hazard at the macro-level using the 1D ground response analysis, the surface level PHA value for the entire state of Karnataka was estimated using a non-linear site amplification technique pro-posed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). Based on the site class in which particular grid belongs and bedrock level PHA value, the amplification for that grid point was evaluated using regression equations developed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). The liquefaction hazard both at the micro and macro-level was evaluated and included in this thesis. The micro-level liquefaction hazard was estimated in terms of liquefaction potential index (LPI) based on SPTN values (Iwasaki et al., 1982). As the LPI was evaluated by integrating the factor of safety against liquefaction (FSL) at all depths, it can effectively represent the liquefaction susceptibility of the soil column. LPI at the micro-level was evaluated by both deterministic as well as the probabilistic approaches. In the deterministic approach, the FSLat a particular depth was evaluated as the ratio of the cyclic resistance of the soil layer to the cyclic stress induced by earth-quake motion. The cyclic stress was estimated as per Seed & Idriss (1971), while the cyclic soil resistance was characterised from the corrected SPT-N values as proposed by Idriss & Boulanger (2006). However in the probabilistic method, the mean annual rate of exceedance (MARE) of factor of safety against liquefaction at different depth was estimated using SPT field test data by considering all uncertainties. From the MARE curve, the FS L for 475 year and 2500 year return period were evaluated. Once FS L at different depth were evaluated, the LPI for the borehole is calculated by integrating FS L for all depths. The liquefaction hazard at the macro-level was estimated in terms of SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction at 3 m depth, using a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach accounts the contribution of several magnitudes acceleration scenarios on the liquefaction potential at a given site. Based on the methodology proposed by Kramer & Mayfield (2007), SPT and CPT values required to resist liquefaction corresponding to return periods of 475 years and 2500 years were evaluated at the macro-level. It has been observed that the spatial distribution of intensity of each these hazard in a region is distinct from the other due to the predominant influence of local geological conditions rather than the source characteristics of the earthquake. Hence it’ll be difficult to assess risk and vulnerability of a region when these hazards are treated separately. Thus, all major earthquake hazards are to be integrated to an index number, which effectively represents the combined effect of all hazards. In the present study, all major earthquake hazards were integrated to a hazard index value, both at the micro as well as macro-level using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) proposed by Saaty (1980). Both micro and macro-level seismic zonation was performed based on the spatial distribution of hazard index value. This thesis also presents the assessment of earthquake induced landslides at the macro-level in the appendix. Landslide hazards are a major natural disaster that affects most of the hilly regions around the world. This is a first attempt of it kind to evaluate seismically induced landslide hazard at the macro-level in a quantitative manner. Landslide hazard was assessed based on Newmark’s method (Newmark, 1965). The Newmark’s model considers the slope at the verge of failure and is modelled as a rigid block sliding along an incline plane under the influence of a threshold acceleration. The value of threshold acceleration depends upon the static factor of safety and slope angle. At the macro-level, the slope map for the entire state of Karnataka was derived from ASTER GDEM, considering a grid size of 50 m × 50 m. The earthquake motion which induces driving force on the slope to destabilize it was evaluated for each grid point with slope value 10 degree and above using DSHA. Knowing the slope value and peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at a grid point, the seismic landslide hazard in terms of static factor of safety required to resist landslide was evaluated using Newmark’s method. This procedure is repeated for all grid points, having slope value 10 degree and above.