The present thesis collects results of research applying theory and methods of statistical seismology to the seismicity of Central America, a region with a complex tectonic setting controlled by the interaction of four major plates, namely the Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca and North American plates. Three different earthquake catalogues were used for studies focused on stress in a tectonic volume, seismic hazard maps and seismicity patterns (precursors), covering the region 94ºW to 81ºW and 5ºN to 20ºN. Variations in the b-value, the parameter in Gutenberg & Richter’s equation LogN=a-bM, as a function of depth in the subduction zone were investigated. High b-values were identified in the upper part of the slab at depths of 80-110km beneath Guatemala-El Salvador and at depths 130-170km beneath Nicaragua. These anomalies may be related to the generation of volcanism occurring above them. Time dependence of the b-value was also studied. Five case studies were selected (events with MS ≥7.2) for a detailed analysis. In three out of five cases, it was possible to link b-value minima to the time of occurrence of corresponding large events. Seismic quiescence was mapped as a function of time and space by a griding technique. The characteristics of the quiescence were calculated using the statistics Z and ß and for Time Window lengths between 1 and 5 years. Five positive anomalies were found, which can be associated with large earthquakes (MS≥7.2). Finally, a Monte Carlo approach was utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala.

My work focused on the development of improved methodologies for the evaluation of seismic hazard and its related uncertainties, based on the study of active faults systems and dynamic modelling of the seismic cycle. I worked in particular on the probabilistic estimate of a fault's maximum magnitude earthquake and of its return period. Those parameters are indeed crucial to estimate seismic hazard. Seismicity can be viewed as a stochastic process which is constrained by the principle of moment conservation: seismic ruptures must in principle rupture fault portions which had accumulated a deficit of slip, in view of their long term slip rate, during the interseismic period. In Chapter 1, I explain how we implemented those constraints in the evaluation of the probability distribution describing the magnitude and return period of the largest earthquake, propagating the geodetic uncertainties up to the hazard calculation. We applied this methodology to the Parkfield Segment of the San Andreas Fault, where the seismic cycle is particularly well documented. Our study implies potential maximum magnitude between 6.5 and 7.5, with a return period of 140 to 300 years. In Chapter 2, we applied the same methodology to the Cascadia subduction zone, known to have produced a M~9 earthquake in 1700 but where the seismic hazard remains poorly constrained. As part of this study we determined a model of interseismic coupling and of fault slip due to Slow Slip Events using an Independent Component Analysis-based inversion method. Finally, in Chapter 3, I use dynamic modelling to tackle the problem of partial ruptures. Large earthquakes tend to be confined to fault areas locked in the interseismic period but they often rupture them only partially. For example, during the 2015 M7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, a slip pulse propagating along-strike unzipped the bottom edge of the locked portion of the Main Himalayan Thrust. The lower edge of the rupture produced dominant high-frequency (>1 Hz) radiation of seismic waves. We showed that similar partial ruptures occur spontaneously in a simple dynamic model of earthquake sequences on a planar fault without mechanical, frictional and geometrical heterogeneities.

Liquefaction-induced settlements can cause a large economic toll on a region, from severe infrastructural damage, after an earthquake occurs. The ability to predict, and design for, these settlements is crucial to prevent extensive damage. However, the inherent uncertainty involved in predicting seismic events and hazards makes calculating accurate settlement estimations difficult. Currently there are several seismic hazard analysis methods, however, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) method is becoming the most promising. The PBEE framework was presented by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center. The PEER PBEE framework is a more comprehensive seismic analysis than any past seismic hazard analysis methods because it thoroughly incorporates probability theory into all aspects of post-liquefaction settlement estimation. One settlement estimation method, used with two liquefaction triggering methods, is incorporated into the PEER framework to create a new PBEE (i.e., fully-probabilistic) post-liquefaction estimation procedure for the cone penetration test (CPT). A seismic hazard analysis tool, called CPTLiquefY, was created for this study to perform the probabilistic calculations mentioned above. Liquefaction-induced settlement predictions are computed for current design methods and the created fully-probabilistic procedure for 20 CPT files at 10 cities of varying levels of seismicity. A comparison of these results indicate that conventional design methods are adequate for areas of low seismicity and low seismic events, but may significantly under-predict seismic hazard for areas and earthquake events of mid to high seismicity.

Liquefaction-induced settlement can cause significant damage to structures and infrastructure in the wake of a seismic event. Predicting settlement is an essential component of a comprehensive seismic design. The inherent uncertainty associated with seismic events makes the accurate prediction of settlement difficult. While several methods of assessing seismic hazards exist, perhaps the most promising is performance-based earthquake engineering, a framework presented by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center. The PEER framework incorporates probability theory to generate a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis. Two settlement estimation methods are incorporated into the PEER framework to create a fully probabilistic settlement estimation procedure. A seismic hazard analysis tool known as PBLiquefY was updated to include the fully probabilistic method described above. The goal of the additions to PBLiquefY is to facilitate the development of a simplified performance-based procedure for the prediction of liquefaction-induced free-field settlements. Settlement estimations are computed using conventional deterministic methods and the fully probabilistic procedure for five theoretical soil profiles in 10 cities of varying seismicity levels. A comparison of these results suggests that deterministic methods are adequate when considering events of low seismicity but may result in a considerable under-estimation of seismic hazard when considering events of mid to high seismicity.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to provide a detailed description of recent methods and scientific basis for characterizing earthquake sources within a certain region with distinct tectonic environments. The focus will be on those characteristics that are most significant to the ground-shaking hazard and on how we can incorporate our current knowledge into hazard analyses for engineering design purposes. I treat two particular geographical areas where I think current hazard analysis methods are in need of significant improvement, and suggest some approaches that have proven to be effective in past applications elsewhere. A combined hazard procedure is used to estimate seismicity in <i>northern Central America</i>, where there appear to be four tectonic environments for modeling the seismogenic sources and in <i>Iran</i>, where the large earthquakes usually occur on known faults. A preferred seismic hazard model for northern Central America and the western Caribbean plate based on earthquake catalogs, geodetic measurements, and geological information is presented. I used the widely practiced method of relating seismicity data to geological data to assess the various seismic hazard parameters and test parameter sensitivities. </p><p>The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimates are calculated for northwestern Iran by using a <i>specific randomized blocks design</i>. A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, is presented for the area of relevance. <i>Disaggregation of seismic hazard</i> is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions. </p><p>In conclusion, consideration of the effect of parameters such as seismic moment, fault rupture, rupture directivity and stress drop are strongly recommended in estimating the near field ground motions. The rupture process of the 2002 Changureh earthquake (<i>M</i><i>w</i> = 6.5), Iran, was analyzed by using the<i> empirical Green’s function (EGF) method</i>. This method simulates strong ground motions for future large earthquakes at particular sites where no empirical data are available.</p>

<p>The present thesis collects results of research applying theory and methods of statistical seismology to the seismicity of Central America, a region with a complex tectonic setting controlled by the interaction of four major plates, namely the Caribbean, Cocos, Nazca and North American plates.</p><p>Three different earthquake catalogues were used for studies focused on stress in a tectonic volume, seismic hazard maps and seismicity patterns (precursors), covering the region 94ºW to 81ºW and 5ºN to 20ºN.</p><p>Variations in the <i>b</i>-value, the parameter in Gutenberg & Richter’s equation Log<i>N</i>=<i>a</i>-<i>bM</i>, as a function of depth in the subduction zone were investigated. High <i>b</i>-values were identified in the upper part of the slab at depths of 80-110km beneath Guatemala-El Salvador and at depths 130-170km beneath Nicaragua. These anomalies may be related to the generation of volcanism occurring above them. Time dependence of the <i>b</i>-value was also studied. Five case studies were selected (events with <i>M</i><i>S</i> ≥7.2) for a detailed analysis. In three out of five cases, it was possible to link <i>b</i>-value minima to the time of occurrence of corresponding large events. </p><p>Seismic quiescence was mapped as a function of time and space by a griding technique. The characteristics of the quiescence were calculated using the statistics <i>Z</i> and <i>ß</i> and for Time Window lengths between 1 and 5 years. Five positive anomalies were found, which can be associated with large earthquakes (<i>M</i><i>S</i>≥7.2).</p><p>Finally, a Monte Carlo approach was utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years is presented for a large area of northern Central America, including El Salvador and Guatemala.</p>

Earthquake ground motions are needed to evaluate the seismic performance of new and existing structures and facilities. In seismically active regions the strong ground motion recordings database is usually sufficiently large to physically constrain the earthquake estimation for seismic risk assessment. However, in areas of low seismicity rate, particularly in the Central and Eastern United States, the estimation of strong ground motions for a specified magnitude, distance, and site conditions represents a significant issue. The only available approach for ground motion estimation in this region is numerical simulation. In this study, earthquake ground motions have been generated for the Upper Mississippi Embayment using a numerical wave propagation formulation. The effects of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in the earthquake source, path, and site processes, the effect of non-linear soil behavior, and the effects of the geometry of the Embayment have been incorporated. The ground motions are intended to better characterize the seismic hazard in the Upper Mississippi Embayment by representing the amplitude and variability that might be observed in real earthquakes and to provide resources to evaluate the seismic risk in the region.

Estimation of the ground motion parameters is extremely important for engineers to make the structures safer and more economical, so it is one of the main issues of Earthquake Engineering. Peak values of the ground motions obtained either from existing records or with the help of attenuation relationships, have been used as a useful parameter to estimate the effect of an earthquake on a specific location. Peak Ground Velocities (PGV) of a ground motion is used extensively in the recent years as a measure of intensity and as the primary source of energy-related analysis of structures. Consequently, PGV values are used to construct emergency response systems like Shake Maps or to determine the deformation demands of structures. Despite the importance of the earthquakes for Turkey, there is a lack of suitable attenuation relationships for velocity developed specifically for the country. The aim of this study is to address this deficiency by developing an attenuation relationship for the Peak Ground Velocities of the chosen database based on the strong ground motion records of Turkey. A database is processed with the established techniques and corrected database for the chosen ground motions is formed. Five different forms of equations that were used in the previous studies are selected to be used as models and by using nonlinear regression analysis, best fitted mathematical relation for attenuation is obtained. The result of this study can be used as an effective tool for seismic hazard assessment studies for Turkey. Besides, being a by-product of this study, a corrected database of strong ground motion recordings of Turkey may prone to be a valuable source for the future researchers.

Due to the randomness inherent in the occurrence of earthquakes with respect to time, space and magnitude as well as other various sources of uncertainties, seismic hazard assessment should be carried out in a probabilistic manner. Basic steps of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are the delineation of seismic sources, assessment of the earthquake occurrence characteristics for each seismic source, selection of the appropriate ground motion attenuation relationship and identification of the site characteristics. Seismic sources can be modeled as area and line sources. Also, the seismic activity that can not be related with any major seismic sources can be treated as background source in which the seismicity is assumed to be uniform or spatially smoothed. Exponentially distributed magnitude and characteristic earthquake models are often used to describe the magnitude recurrence relationship. Poisson and renewal models are used to model the occurrence of earthquakes in the time domain. In this study, the sensitivity of seismic hazard results to the models associated with the different assumptions mentioned above is investigated. The effects of different sources of uncertainties involved in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology to the results are investigated for a number of sites with different distances to a single fault. Two case studies are carried out to examine the influence of different assumptions on the final results based on real data as well as to illustrate the implementation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology for a large region (e.g. a country) and a smaller region (e.g. a province).

Within the confines of this study, seismic soil liquefaction triggering potential of a dam foundation is assessed within an integrated probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework. More specifically, the scheme presented hereby directly integrates effective stress-based seismic soil liquefaction triggering assessment with seismic hazard analysis framework, supported by an illustrative case. The proposed methodology successively, i) processes the discrete stages of probabilistic seismic hazard workflow upon seismic source characterization, ii) numerically develops the target elastic acceleration response spectra for typical rock sites, covering all the earthquake scenarios that are re-grouped with respect to earthquake magnitude and distance, iii) matches the strong ground motion records selected from a database with the target response spectra for every defined scenario, and iv) performs 2-D equivalent linear seismic response analyses of a 56 m high earth fill dam founded on 24 m thick alluvial deposits. Results of seismic response analyses are presented in the form of annual probability of excess pore pressure ratios and seismically-induced lateral deformations exceeding various threshold values. For the purpose of assessing the safety of the dam slopes, phi-c reduction based slope stability analyses were also performed representing post-liquefaction conditions. After having integrated this phi-c reduction analyses results into the probabilistic hazard framework, annual probabilities of factor of safety of slopes exceeding various threshold values were estimated. As the concluding remark, probability of liquefaction triggering, induced deformations and factor of safeties are presented for a service life of 100 years. It is believed that the proposed probabilistic seismic performance assessment methodology which incorporates both phi-c reduction based failure probabilities and seismic soil liquefaction-induced deformation potentials, provides dam engineers a robust methodology to rationally quantify the level of confidence with their decisions regarding if costly mitigation of dam foundation soils against seismic soil liquefaction triggering hazard and induced risks is necessary.