As hard rock mining progresses into higher stress mining conditions through either late stage extraction or mining at depth, the rock mass is driven not just to the peak strength, but often well into the post-peak until complete ‘failure’ occurs and easier mining conditions become evident. Limited research has been accomplished in identifying the transition of the rock mass and its behaviour into the post-peak and this research investigates this behaviour in detail. As the rock mass progressively fails, fractures are initiated through intact rock and extension and shear failure of these and pre-existing features occurs. Associated with this failure are microseismic events, which can be used to give an indication of the strength state of the rock mass. Based on an analogy to laboratory testing of intact rock and measurement of acoustic emissions, the microseismicity can be used to identify, fracture initiation, coalescence of fractures (yield), localization (peak-strength), accumulation of damage (post-peak) and ultimate failure (residual strength) leading to aseismic behaviour. The case studies presented in this thesis provide an opportunity to examine and analyse rock mass failure into the post-peak, through the regional and confined failures at the Williams and the Golden Giant mines, both in the Hemlo camp in Northern Ontario, Canada. At the Williams mine, the progressive failure of a sill pillar region into the post-peak was analysed; relating the seismic event density, combined with numerical modelling and a spatial and temporal examination of the principal components analysis (PCA), to characterize the extent, trend and state of the yielding zone, which formed a macrofracture shear structure. Observations of conventional displacement instrumentation, indicates regional dilation or shear of the rock mass occurs at or prior to the point of ‘disassociation’ (breakdown of stable PCA trends) when approaching the residual strength. At the Golden Giant mine, the complete process from initiation to aseismic behaviour is monitored in a highly stressed and confined pendent pillar. The PCA technique, numerical modelling and focal mechanism studies are used to define significant stages of the failure process, in which a similar macrofracture structure was formed. Temporal observations of key source parameters show significant changes prior to and at the point of coalescence and localization.

L’une des problématique scientifique majeure en sismologie est de pouvoir estimer les mouvements du sol attendus en un site pour un futur séisme. L’objectif de cette thèse est de tester et de valider deux méthodes de simulation des mouvements du sol basées sur l’approche des fonctions de Green empiriques et d’apporter des éléments pouvant aider au développement d’une méthodologie de simulation en aveugle. Dans une première partie, une méthode de simulation basée sur une approche stochastique en point-source est validée sur les données réelles de séismes récents bien instrumentés : le séisme des Saintes Mw6.4 et le séisme de L’Aquila Mw6.3. Nous avons développé une approche de simulation en aveugle en prenant en compte une incertitude sur le paramètre de rapport des chutes de contrainte C. Cette approche permet de générer un ensemble d’accélérogrammes synthétiques d’un séisme cible suffisamment variés pour être représentatifs d’un grand nombre de scénarios de sources possibles et prenant en compte dans un sens statistique de potentiels effets de directivité. Cette approche a également été appliquée à la simulation d’un séisme historique pyrénéen Mw6.1. Dans une seconde partie, nous nous appuyons sur un modèle de source étendue plus complexe, combinant des modèles cinématiques de sources composites fractales avec l’approche des FGEs. Le potentiel de la méthode est testé sur une application au séisme de L’Aquila. Cela a permis de produire des résultats très satisfaisants sur l’ensemble des paramètres des mouvements du sol analysés. Cette méthode de simulation apparaît comme étant très prometteuse pour la mise en œuvre d’une méthodologie de simulation en aveugle, même si la principale difficulté réside dans la nécessité de définir la variabilité de nombreux paramètres d’entrée mal connus dans le cadre de la simulation d’un futur séisme. / One of the major scientific problems in seismology is to estimate the ground motions expected at a given site from a future earthquake. The aim of this thesis is to test and validate two different methods of ground motions simulation based on the empirical Green’s function approach and to provide elements that can help to develop a blind simulation methodology. In a first part, a simulation method based on a stochastic point source approach is validated on the real data of recent earthquakes well instrumented : the Les Saintes earthquake Mw6.4 and the L’Aquila earthquake Mw6.3. We have developed a blind simulation approach by taking into account an uncertainty on the parameter of stress drop ratio C. This approach allows to generate a set of synthetic accelerograms of a target earthquake varied enough to be representative of a large number of possible source scenario and taking into account in a statistical sense potential directivity effects. This approach is also applied to the simulation of an historical Pyrenean earthquake Mw6.1. In a second part, we use a more complex extended source model, combining kinematic models of fractal composite sources with EGF approach. The potential of the method is tested on an application to L’Aquila earthquake. This has produced very satisfying results on all ground motion parameters analyzed. This simulation method appears to be very promising for the implementation of a blind simulation methodology, even if the main difficulty lies in the need to define the variability of many poorly known input parameters in the simulation of a future earthquake.

[pt] A presente tese tem como objetivo avaliar a interação trovão-solo no que toca a ocorrência de trovões e suas características microssísmicas, apontando a influência de vibrações induzidas para a redução do fator de segurança em uma análise (pseudo-estática) de estabilidade de encostas. Considerando a abordagem inédita, foi efetuado um levantamento teórico com o intuito de apresentar as principais características dos relâmpagos e suas correlações com o solo. Como material, foi utilizado um solo coluvionar, composto principalmente de quartzo, feldspato e biotita. O referido foi caracterizado através de métodos padrão (complementados com o uso da microtomografia 3D), e a retenção e disponibilidade de água foram reveladas. Foi efetuado um monitoramento de campo de longo prazo para avaliar a correlação entre os dados climáticos (incluindo incidência de raios) e o potencial hídrico dos solos. Por fim, foi utilizado uma estação para monitoramento sismográfico para captar as vibrações induzidas por trovões nos solos. Os resultados mostram 39 ocorrências de raios próximos ao local de monitoramento de campo. O monitoramento sísmico mostrou que os trovões causam sinais microssísmicos compostos por acelerações de pico do solo até 0,02 m/s ao quadrado. Em conclusão, para fins geotécnicos, o trovão é um assunto que pode ser avaliado à luz de um carregamento sísmico. / [en] The present thesis aims to evaluate thunder-soil interaction verifying the influence of its induced vibrations to the reduction of the factor of safety in a pseudo-static slope stability analysis. In order to carry out this research, considering the unpublished approach, a theoretical survey was made in order to present the main characteristics of the lightning and its correlations with the soil. As a material, a colluvial soil, mainly composed of quartz, feldspar and biotite was characterized by standard methods (supplemented with the use of 3D microtomography) in order to reveal its mineral composition, structural arrangement and water retention. After field and laboratory calibration of the water potential and volumetric moisture sensors, a long-term field monitoring was performed to evaluate the correlation between climatic data (including lightning incidence) and soil water potential. Finally, a seismographic monitoring station was used to capture the vibrations induced by thunder in the soils. The results depicted 39 lightning events near the field monitoring site. However, no rapid variation of water potential was revealed during thunderstorm days. Seismic monitoring showed that thunder caused micro-seismic signals composed of ground peak accelerations up to 0.02 m/s squared. In conclusion, for geotechnical purposes, thunder is a subject that can be evaluated in the light of pseudostatic loads. However, further researches are required to verify the vibrations of larger magnitudes, induced by rays that occur at smaller distances of the seismic monitoring point.

As hard rock mining progresses into higher stress mining conditions through either late stage extraction or mining at depth, the rock mass is driven not just to the peak strength, but often well into the post-peak until complete ‘failure’ occurs and easier mining conditions become evident. Limited research has been accomplished in identifying the transition of the rock mass and its behaviour into the post-peak and this research investigates this behaviour in detail. As the rock mass progressively fails, fractures are initiated through intact rock and extension and shear failure of these and pre-existing features occurs. Associated with this failure are microseismic events, which can be used to give an indication of the strength state of the rock mass. Based on an analogy to laboratory testing of intact rock and measurement of acoustic emissions, the microseismicity can be used to identify, fracture initiation, coalescence of fractures (yield), localization (peak-strength), accumulation of damage (post-peak) and ultimate failure (residual strength) leading to aseismic behaviour. The case studies presented in this thesis provide an opportunity to examine and analyse rock mass failure into the post-peak, through the regional and confined failures at the Williams and the Golden Giant mines, both in the Hemlo camp in Northern Ontario, Canada. At the Williams mine, the progressive failure of a sill pillar region into the post-peak was analysed; relating the seismic event density, combined with numerical modelling and a spatial and temporal examination of the principal components analysis (PCA), to characterize the extent, trend and state of the yielding zone, which formed a macrofracture shear structure. Observations of conventional displacement instrumentation, indicates regional dilation or shear of the rock mass occurs at or prior to the point of ‘disassociation’ (breakdown of stable PCA trends) when approaching the residual strength. At the Golden Giant mine, the complete process from initiation to aseismic behaviour is monitored in a highly stressed and confined pendent pillar. The PCA technique, numerical modelling and focal mechanism studies are used to define significant stages of the failure process, in which a similar macrofracture structure was formed. Temporal observations of key source parameters show significant changes prior to and at the point of coalescence and localization.

Planet earth is restless and one cannot control its inside activities and vibrations those leading to natural hazards. Earthquake is one of such natural hazards that have affected the mankind most. Most of the causalities due to earthquakes happened not because of earthquakes as such, but because of poorly designed structures which could not withstand the earthquake forces. The improper building construction techniques adopted and the high population density are the major causes of the heavy damage due to earthquakes. The damage due to earthquakes can be reduced by following proper construction techniques, taking into consideration of appropriate forces on the structure that can be caused due to future earthquakes. The steps towards seismic hazard evaluation are very essential to estimate an optimal and reliable value of possible earthquake ground motion during a specific time period. These predicted values can be an input to assess the seismic vulnerability of an area based on which new construction and the restoration works of existing structures can be carried out. A large number of devastating earthquakes have occurred in India in the past. The northern region of India, which is along the plate boundary of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, is seismically very active. The north eastern movement of Indian plate has caused deformation in the Himalayan region, Tibet and the North Eastern India. Along the Himalayan belt, the Indian and Eurasian plates converge at the rate of about 50 mm/year (Bilham 2004; Jade 2004). The North East Indian (NEI) region is known as one of the most seismically active regions in the world. However the peninsular India, which is far away from the plate boundary, is a stable continental region, which is considered to be of moderate seismic activity. Even though, the activity is considered to be moderate in the Peninsular India, world’s deadliest earthquake occurred in this region (Bhuj earthquake 2001). The rapid drifting of Indian plate towards Himalayas in the north east direction with a high velocity along with its low plate thickness might be the cause of high seismicity of the Indian region. Bureau of Indian Standard has published a seismic zonation map in 1962 and revised it in 1966, 1970, 1984 and 2002. The latest version of the seismic zoning map of India assigns four levels of seismicity for the entire Country in terms of different zone factors. The main drawback of the seismic zonation code of India (BIS-1893, 2002) is that, it is based on the past seismic activity and not based on a scientific seismic hazard analysis. Several seismic hazard studies, which were taken up in the recent years, have shown that the hazard values given by BIS-1893 (2002) need to be revised (Raghu Kanth and Iyengar 2006; Vipin et al. 2009; Mahajan et al. 2009 etc.). These facts necessitate a comprehensive study for evaluating the seismic hazard of India and development of a seismic zonation map of India based on the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. The objective of this thesis is to estimate the seismic hazard of entire India using updated seismicity data based on the latest and different methodologies. The major outcomes of the thesis can be summarized as follows. An updated earthquake catalog that is uniform in moment magnitude, has been prepared for India and adjoining areas for the period till 2010. Region specific magnitude scaling relations have been established for the study region, which facilitated the generation of a homogenous earthquake catalog. By carefully converting the original magnitudes to unified MW magnitudes, we have removed a major obstacle for consistent assessment of seismic hazards in India. The earthquake catalog was declustered to remove the aftershocks and foreshocks. Out of 203448 events in the raw catalog, 75.3% were found to be dependent events and remaining 50317 events were identified as main shocks of which 27146 events were of MW ≥ 4. The completeness analysis of the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website A quantitative study of the spatial distribution of the seismicity rate across India and its vicinity has been performed. The lower b values obtained in shield regions imply that the energy released in these regions is mostly from large magnitude events. The b value of northeast India and Andaman Nicobar region is around unity which implies that the energy released is compatible for both smaller and larger events. The effect of aftershocks in the seismicity parameters was also studied. Maximum likelihood estimations of the b value from the raw and declustered earthquake catalogs show significant changes leading to a larger proportion of low magnitude events as foreshocks and aftershocks. The inclusions of dependent events in the catalog affect the relative abundance of low and high magnitude earthquakes. Thus, greater inclusion of dependent events leads to higher b values and higher activity rate. Hence, the seismicity parameters obtained from the declustered catalog is valid as they tend to follow a Poisson distribution. Mmax does not significantly change, since it depends on the largest observed magnitude rather than the inclusion of dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks). The spatial variation of the seismicity parameters can be used as a base to identify regions of similar characteristics and to delineate regional seismic source zones. Further, Regions of similar seismicity characteristics were identified based on fault alignment, earthquake event distribution and spatial variation of seismicity parameters. 104 regional seismic source zones were delineated which are inevitable input to seismic hazard analysis. Separate subsets of the catalog were created for each of these zones and seismicity analysis was done for each zone after estimating the cutoff magnitude. The frequency magnitude distribution plots of all the source zones can be found at http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sitharam . There is considerable variation in seismicity parameters and magnitude of completeness across the study area. The b values for various regions vary from a lower value of 0.5 to a higher value of 1.5. The a value for different zones vary from a lower value of 2 to a higher value of 10. The analysis of seismicity parameters shows that there is considerable difference in the earthquake recurrence rate and Mmax in India. The coordinates of these source zones and the seismicity parameters a, b & Mmax estimated can be directly input into the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard evaluation of the Indian landmass based on a state-of-the art Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) study has been performed using the classical Cornell–McGuire approach with different source models and attenuation relations. The most recent knowledge of seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainty associated with different modeling parameters as well as spatial and temporal uncertainties. The PSHA has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude in hazard computations, and ground-motion attenuation relationships). The hazard maps have been produced for horizontal ground motion at bedrock level (Shear wave velocity ≥ 3.6 km/s) and compared with the earlier studies like Bhatia et al., 1999 (India and adjoining areas); Seeber et al, 1999 (Maharashtra state); Jaiswal and Sinha, 2007 (Peninsular India); Sitharam and Vipin, 2011 (South India); Menon et al., 2010 (Tamilnadu). It was observed that the seismic hazard is moderate in Peninsular shield (except the Kutch region of Gujarat), but the hazard in the North and Northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar region is very high. The ground motion predicted from the present study will not only give hazard values for design of structures, but also will help in deciding the locations of important structures such as nuclear power plants. The evaluation of surface level PGA values is of very high importance in the engineering design. The surface level PGA values were evaluated for the entire study area for four NEHRP site classes using appropriate amplification factors. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the ground level PGA values can be obtained from the respective map. In the absence of VS30 values, the site classes can be identified based on local geological conditions. Thus this method provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the surface level PGA values. The evaluation of PGA values for different site classes were evaluated based on the PGA values obtained from the DSHA and PSHA. This thesis also presents VS30 characterization of entire country based on the topographic gradient using existing correlations. Further, surface level PGA contour map was developed based on the same. Liquefaction is the conversion of formally stable cohesionless soils to a fluid mass, due to increase in pore pressure and is prominent in areas that have groundwater near the surface and sandy soil. Soil liquefaction has been observed during the earthquakes because of the sudden dynamic earthquake load, which in turn increases the pore pressure. The evaluation of liquefaction potential involves evaluation of earthquake loading and evaluation of soil resistance to liquefaction. In the present work, the spatial variation of the SPT value required to prevent liquefaction has been estimated using a probabilistic methodology, for entire India. To summarize, the major contribution of this thesis are the development of region specific magnitude correlations suitable for Indian subcontinent and an updated homogeneous earthquake catalog for India that is uniform in moment magnitude scale. The delineation and characterization of regional seismic source zones for a vast country like India is a unique contribution, which requires reasonable observation and engineering judgement. Considering complex seismotectonic set up of the country, the present work employed numerous methodologies (DSHA and PSHA) in analyzing the seismic hazard using appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainties considering alternative models (For Source model, Mmax estimation and Ground motion prediction equations) to estimate the PGA value at bedrock level. Further, VS30 characterization of India was done based on the topographic gradient, as a first level approach, which facilitated the development of surface level PGA map for entire country using appropriate amplification factors. Above factors make the present work very unique and comprehensive touching various aspects of seismic hazard. It is hoped that the methodology and outcomes presented in this thesis will be beneficial to practicing engineers and researchers working in the area of seismology and geotechnical engineering in particular and to the society as a whole.

Tee present research focuses on seismic hazard studies for the states of Tripura and Mizoram in the North-East India with taking into account the complex sesismotectonic characteristics of the region. This area is more prone to earthquake hazard due to complex subsurface geology, peculiar topographical distribution, continuous crustal deformation due to the under thrusting of Indian and the Eurasian plates, a possible seismic gap, and many active intraplate sources identified within this region. The study area encompasses major seismic source zones such as Indo Burmese Range (IBR), Shillong Plateau (SP), Eastern Himalayan arc (EH), Bengal Basin (BB), Mishmi Thrust (MT) and Naga Thrust (NT). Five historical earthquakes of magnitude Mw>8 have been listed in the study area and 15 events of magnitude Mw>7 have occurred in last 100 years. Indian seismic code BIS-1893-2002 places the study area with a high level of seismic hazard in the country (i.e. seismic zone V). More than 60% of the area is hilly steep-terrain in nature and the altitude varies from 0 to 3000 meters. Recent works have located a seismic gap, known as the Assam gap since 1950 between the EH, SP, and IBR with the Eurasian plate. Various researchers have estimated the return period, and a large size earthquake is expected in this region any time in future. The area is also highly prone to liquefaction, since rivers in Tripura (Gomati, Howrah, Dhalai, Manu, Bijay, Jeri, Feni) and the rivers in Mizoram (Chhimtuipui, Tlawng, Tut, Tuirial and Tuivawl etc.) are scattered throughout the study area where soil deposits are of sedimentary type. In 2011, both the states together have experienced 37 earthquakes (including foreshocks and aftershocks) with magnitudes ranging from 2.9 to 6.9. Of these events, there were 23 earthquakes (M>4) of magnitudes M6.4 (Feb 4th 2011), M6.7 (March 24th 2011), M6.9 (Sept.18th 2011), M6.4 (October 30th 2011), M6.9 (Dec 13th 2011), M5.8 (Nov 21st 2011), M5 (Aug 18th 2011), M4.9 (July 28th 2011), M4.6 (Dec 15th 2011), M4.6 (Jan 21st 2011), M4.5 (Dec 9th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 21th 2011), M4.5 (Oct 17th 2011), M4.5 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.3 (Oct 10th 2011), M4.3 (Sept 22nd 2011), M4.3 (April 4th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 9th 2011), M4.2 (Sept 18th 2011), M4.1 (April 29th 2011), M4.1 (Feb 22nd 2011), M4 (June 9th 2011), and M4 (Dec 2nd 2011) which occurred within this region [source: IMD (Indian Metrological Department), India]. The earthquake (M6.9) that occurred on Sept. 18th 2011 is known as the Sikkim earthquake, and it caused immense destruction including building collapse, landslides, causalities, disrupted connectivity by road damages and other infrastructural damages in Sikkim state as well as the entire North-East India. In the cities of Agartala and Aizawl of Tripura and Mizoram, construction of high rise building is highly restricted by the Government. Being the capital city, many modern infrastructures are still pending for growth of the city planning. Although many researchers have studied and reported about the status of seismicity in North-East Region of India, very few detailed studies have been carried out in this region except Guwahati, Sikkim and Manipur where almost the whole of the study area is highly vulnerable to severe shaking, amplification, liquefaction, and landslide. From the available literature, no specific study exists for Tripura and Mizoram till date. In the present research, seismic hazard assessment has been performed based on spatial-temporal distribution of seismicity and fault rupture characteristics of the region. The seismic events were collected from regions covering about 500 km from the political boundary of the study area. The earthquake data were collected from various national and international seismological agencies such as the IMD, Geological Survey of India (GSI), United State Geological Survey (USGS), and International Seismological Centre (ISC) etc. As the collected events were in different magnitude scales, all the events were homogenized to a unified moment magnitude scale using recent magnitude conversion relations (region specific) developed by the authors for North-East Region of India. The dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) were removed using declustering algorithm and in total 3251 declustered events (main shocks) were identified in the study area since 1731 to 2011. The data set contains 825 events of MW < 4, 1279 events of MW from 4 to 4.9, 996 events MW from 5 to 5.9, 131 events MW from 6 to 6.9, 15 events MW from 7 to 7.9 and 5 events MW ≥8. The statistical analysis was carried out for data completeness (Stepp, 1972). The whole region was divided into six seismic source zones based on the updated seismicity characteristics, fault rupture mechanism, size of earthquake magnitude and the epicentral depth. Separate catalogs were used for each zone, and seismicity parameters a and b were estimated for each source zone and other necessary parameters such as mean magnitude (Mmean), Mmax, Mmin, Mc and recurrence periods were also estimated. Toposheets/vector maps of the study area were collected and seismic sources were identified and characterized as line, point, and areal sources. Linear seismic sources were identified from the Seismotectonic atlas (SEISAT, 2000) published by the GSI, in addition to the source details collected from available literature and remote sensing images. The SEISAT map contains 43 maps presented in 42 sheets covering entire India and adjacent countries with 1:1million scale. Sheets representing the features of the study area were scanned, digitized and georeferenced using MapInfo 10.0 version. After this, tectonic features and seismicity events were superimposed on the map of the study area to prepare a Seismotectonic Map with a scale of 1:1million. In seismic hazard assessment, a state of art well known methodologies (deterministic and probabilistic) was used. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) procedure, hazard assessment is based on the minimum distance between sources to site considering the maximum magnitude occurred at each source. In hazard estimation procedure a lot of uncertainties are involved, which can be explained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) procedure related to the source, magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. The attenuation relations proposed by Atkinson and Boore (2003), and Gupta (2010) are used in this analysis. Because in this region two type activities are mostly observed, regions such as SP, and EH are under plate boundary zone whereas IBR is under subduction process. These equations (GMPEs) were validated with the observed PGA (Peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. The hazard curves for all six major sources were prepared and compiled to get the total hazard curve which represents the cumulative hazard of all sources. Evaluation of PGA, Sa (0.2s and 1.0s) parameters at bedrock level were estimated considering a grid size of 5 km x 5 km, and spectral acceleration values corresponding to a certain level of probability (2% and 10%) were done to develop uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) for both the cities (Agartala and Aizawl). To carry out the seismic microzonation of Agartala and Aizawl cities, a detailed study using geotechnical and geophysical data has been carried out for site characterization and evaluation of site response according to NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Response Program) soil classifications (A, B, C, D, and E-type). Seismic site characterization, which is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to have the idea about the average dynamic behavior of soil deposits, and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. A series of geophysical tests at selected locations have been conducted using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method to obtain direct shear wave velocity profiles from in situ measurements for both the cities. Based on the present study a major part of Agartala city falls under site class D, very few portions come under site class E. On the other hand, Aizawl city comes under site class C. Next, a detailed site response analysis has been carried out for both the cities. This study addresses the influence of local geology and soil conditions on incoming ground motion. Subsurface geotechnical (SPT) and geophysical (MASW) data have been obtained and used to estimate surface level response. The vulnerable seismic source has been identified based on DSHA. Due to the lack of strong motion time history of the study area, synthetic ground motion time histories have been generated using point source seismological model (Boore 2003) at bedrock level based on fault rupture parameters such as stress drop, quality factor, frequency range, magnitude, hypocentral distance etc. Dynamic properties such as the shear modulus (G) and damping ratios (ζ) have been evaluated from the soil properties obtained from SPT bore log data collected from different agencies such as PWD (Public works Department), and Urban Development Dept. of the State Government, in situ shear wave velocity has been obtained from MASW survey in different locations, and following this, a site response analysis has been carried out using SHAKE-2000 to calculate the responses at the ground surface in combination of different magnitudes, distances and epicentral depth for a particular site class. An amplification factor was estimated as the ratio of the PGA at the ground surface to the PGA at bedrock level, a regression analysis was carried out to evaluate period dependant site coefficients, and hence, the period dependant hazard impact on the ground surface could be calculated to obtain the spatial variation of PGA over the study area. Further, liquefaction potential of the site (Agartala) was also evaluated using available SPT bore log data collected and using presently estimated surface level PGA. The results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard map representing as a Factor of safety (FS) against liquefaction with various depths such as 1.5m, 10m, and 15m respectively. It has been seen that Agartala city shows highly prone to liquefaction even up to 15 m depth. Hence, site specific study is highly recommended for implementing any important project. The liquefaction hazard assessment could not be conducted for the Aizawl city because of non availability of the SPT-N data, however, the city stands on hills/mountains, and therefore, such a study is not applicable in this area. Further, seismic microzonation maps for both the cities have been prepared considering Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) which support to the Eigen value properties of the system. Two types of hazard maps have been developed, one using deterministic and another using the probabilistic seismic microzonation maps. These maps can be directly used as inputs for earthquake resistant design, and disaster mitigation planning of the study area. However, an investigation has also been made in forecasting a major earthquake (Mw>6) in North-East India using several probabilistic models such as Gamma, Weibull and lognormal models. IBR and EH show a high probability of occurrences in the next 5 years (i.e. 2013-2018) with >90% probability.

No description available.

This dissertation focuses on the active tectonics of Afghanistan|slip-rate estimation of the Chaman fault and assessing seismic hazard in the Kabul basin. Afghanistan is a tectonically complex zone developed as a result of the collision between the Eurasian plate and the Indian plate to the southeast and the Arabian plate to the south. For seismic hazard mitigation, there is no large-scale active fault map in Afghanistan. I, therefore, mapped active and presumed active faults mainly based on interpretation of 1-arcsecond SRTM anaglyph images, and calculate the slip rate of the Chaman fautl based on 10Be TCN dating. / 博士(理学) / Doctor of Philosophy in Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

Past earthquakes have demonstrated that Indian sub-continent is highly vulnerable to earthquake hazards. It has been estimated that about 59 percent of the land area of the Indian subcontinent has potential risk from moderate to severe earthquakes (NDMA, 2010). Major earthquakes in the last 20 years such as Khillari (30th September 1993), Jabalpur (22nd May 1997), Chamoli (29th March 1999) and Bhuj (26th January 2001) earthquakes have resulted in more than 23,000 deaths and extensive damage to infrastructure (NDMA, 2010). Although it is well known that the major earthquake hazard prone areas in India are the Himalayan region (inter-plate zone) and the north-east region, (subduction zone) the seismicity of Peninsular India cannot be underestimated. Many studies (Seeber et al., 1999; Rao, 2000; Gangrade & Arora, 2000) have proved that the seismicity of Peninsular India is significantly high and may lead to earthquakes of sizeable magnitude. This necessitates a seismic zonation for the country, as well as various regions in it. Seismic zonation is the first step towards an effective earthquake risk mitigation study. Seismic zonation is a process in which a large region is demarcated into small zones based on the levels of earthquake hazard. Seismic zonation is generally carried out at three different levels based on the aerial extent of the region, importance of site and the population. They are micro-level, meso-level and macro-level. The macro-level zonation is generally carried out for large landmass such as a state or a country. The earthquake hazard parameters used for macro-level zoning are generally evaluated with less reliability. The typical example of a macro-level zonation is the seismic zonation map of India prepared by BIS-1893 (2002), where the entire India is demarcated into four seismic zones based on past seismicity and tectonic conditions. Generally the macro-level seismic zonation is carried out based on peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) estimated at bedrock level without giving emphasis on the local soil conditions. Seismic zonation at the meso-level is carried out for cities and urban centers with a population greater than 5,00,000. The earthquake hazard parameters, for the meso-level zonation are evaluated with greater degree of reliability, compared to the macro-level zoning. The micro-level zonation is carried out for sites which host critical installations such as nuclear power plants (NPPs). As the NPPs are considered as very sensitive structures, the earthquake parameters, for the micro-level zonation of the NPP sites are estimated with a highest degree of reliability. The local soil conditions and site effects are properly counted for carrying out the micro as well as the meso-level zonation. Several researchers have carried out meso-level zonation considering effects of all major earthquake hazards such as PHA, site amplification, liquefaction (Mohanty et al., 2007; Nath et al., 2008; Sitharam & Anbazhagan, 2008 etc.) Even though the above definitions and descriptions are available for various levels of zonation, the key issue lies in the adoption of the suitable one for a given region. There are only a few guidelines available regarding the use of a particular level of zonation for a given study area. Based on the recommendation of the disaster management authority, the government of India has initiated the seismic zonation of all major cities in India. As it is evident that large resources are required in order to carry out seismic site characterization and site effect estimation, both the micro and meso-level zonations cannot be carried out for all these cities. Hence there is a need to propose appropriate guidelines to define the suitability of each level zonation for various re-gions in the country. Moreover there are many methodologies available for site characterization and estimation of site effects such as site amplification and liquefaction. The appropriateness of these methodologies for various levels of seismic zonations also needs to be assessed in order to optimize use of resources for seismic zonation. Hence in the present study, appropriate techniques for site characterization and earthquake hazard estimation for regions at different scale levels were determined. Using the appropriate techniques, the seismic zonation was carried out both at the micro and macro-level, incorporating all major earthquake hazards. The state of Karnataka and the Kalpakkam NPP site were chosen for the macro and micro−level seismic zonation in this study. Kalpakkam NPP site is situated in Tamil Nadu, India, 70 kilometres south of Chennai city. The NPP site covers an area of 3000 acres. The site is situated along the Eastern coastal belt of India known as Coromandel coast with Bay of Bengal on the east side. The NPP site host major facilities such as Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS), Fast Reactor Fuel Reprocessing (FRFC) Plant, Fast Breeder Test Reactor (FBTR), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) etc. The state Karnataka lies in the southern part of India, covering an area of 1,91,791 km2, thus approximately constituting 5.83% of the total geographical area of India. Both the study areas lie in the Indian Peninsular which is identified as one of the most prominent and largest Precambrian shield region of the world. The first and foremost step towards the seismic zonation is to prepare a homogenised earthquake catalogue. All the earthquake events within 300 km radius from the boundary of two study areas were collected from various national and international agencies. The earthquake events thus obtained were found to be in different magnitude scales and hence all these events were converted to the moment magnitude scale. A declustering procedure was applied to the earthquake catalogue of the two study area in order to remove aftershocks, foreshocks and dependent events. The completeness analysis was carried out and the seismicity parameters for the two study areas were evaluated based on the complete part of earthquake catalogues. The next major step toward the estimation of earthquake hazard and seismic zonation is the identification and mapping of the earthquake sources. Three source models, mainly; 1) linear source model, 2) point source model and 3) areal source model were used in the present study for characterizing earthquake sources in the two study areas. All the linear sources (faults and lineaments) within 300 km radius from the boundary of two study areas were identified and mapped from SEISAT (2000). In addition to SEISAT (2000), some lineaments were also mapped from the works of Ganesha Raj & Nijagunappa (2004). These lineaments and faults were mapped and georeferenced in a GIS platform on which earthquake events were then super-imposed to give seismotectonic atlas. Seismotectonic atlas was prepared for both the study areas. The point source model (Costa et al. 1993; Panza et al. 1999) and areal source model (Frankel, 1995) were also adopted in this work. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was found to be appropriated for micro, meso and macro-level zonations. Hence in the present study, the seismic hazard at bedrock level, both at the micro and macro-level were evaluated using the deterministic as well as the probabilistic methodologies. In order to address the epistemic uncertainties in source models and attenuation relations, a logic tree methodology was incorporated with the deterministic and probabilistic approaches. As the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) considers only the critical scenario, knowing the maximum magnitude that can occur at a source and the shortest distance between that source and the site and the peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at that site is estimated using the frequency dependent attenuation relation. Both for the micro as well as the macro-level, the DSHA was carried out, considering grid sizes of 0.001◦ × 0.001◦ and 0.05◦ × 0.05◦respectively. A MATLAB program was developed to evaluate PHA at the center of each of these grid points. The epistemic uncertainties in source models and attenuation relations have been addressed using a logic tree approach (Bommer et al., 2005). A typical logic tree consists of a series of nodes to which several models with different weightages are assigned. Allotment of these weightages to different branch depends upon the degree of uncertainties in the model, and its accuracy. However the sum of all weightages of different branches at a particular node must be unity. Two types of seismic sources are employed in DSHA and they are linear and smoothed point sources. Since both the types of sources were of equal importance, equal weightages were assigned to each of them. The focal depth in the present study was taken as 15 km. The attenuation properties of the region were modelled using three attenuation relations, Viz. Campbell & Bozorgnia (2003), Atkinson & Boore (2006) and Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). The attenuation relation proposed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007) was given higher weightage of 0.4 since it was devel-oped for the Indian peninsular region. The attenuation relations by Atkinson & Boore (2006) and Campbell & Bozorgnia (2003) which were developed for Eastern North American shield region, shared equal weightages of 0.3. Maps showing spatial variation of PHA value at bedrock level, for both micro and macro-level are presented. Response spectra at the rock level for important location in the two study areas were evaluated for 8 different periods of oscillations, and the results are presented in this thesis. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) incorporating logic tree approach was per-formed for both micro as well as macro-level considering similar grid sizes as in DSHA. Two types of seismic sources considered in the PSHA are linear sources and smoothed gridded areal sources (Frankel, 1995) with equal weightage distribution in the logic tree structure. Smoothed gridded areal sources can also account the scattered earthquake events. The hypocentral distance was calculated by considering a focal depth of 15 km, as in the case of DSHA method. A MAT-LAB program was developed for PSHA. The same attenuation relations employed in DSHA were used in PSHA as well with the same weightage allotment in logic tree structure. Considering all major uncertainties, a uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS), showing the variation of PHA values with the mean annual rate of exceedance (MARE), was evaluated for each grid point. From the uniform hazard response spectrum, the PHA corresponding to any return period can be evaluated. Maps showing the spatial variation of PHA value at bedrock level, corresponding to 475 year and 2500 year return periods for both micro and macro-level are presented. Response spectra at the rock level for important location in two study areas were evaluated for eight different periods of oscillations, and the results are presented in this thesis. In order to assess various earthquake hazards like ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction, a thorough understanding of geotechnical properties of the top overburden soil mass is essential. As these earthquake hazards strongly depend on the geotechnical properties of the soil, site characterization based on these properties will provide a better picture of these hazards. In the present study, seismic site characterization was carried both at the micro and macro-level using average shear wave velocity for top 30 m overburden (Vs30). At the micro-level, the shear wave velocity profile at major locations was evaluated using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) tests. MASW is an indirect geophysical method used in geotechnical investigations and near surface soil characterization based on the dispersion characteristics of surface waves (Park et al., 1999). The MASW test setup consists of 24-channel geophones of 4.5 Hz capacity. A 40 kg propelled energy generator (PEG) was used for generating surface wave. Based on the recordings of geophones, the dispersion characteristics of surface waves were evaluated in terms of a dispersion curve. The shear wave velocity (Vs) profile at a particular location was determined by performing inversion analysis (Xia et al., 1999). After the evaluation of V s profile at all major locations, the site characterization at the micro-level was carried out as per NEHRP (BSSC, 2003) and IBC (2009) recommendations. Maps showing the spatial distribution of various site classes at the micro-level are presented in this thesis. Standard penetration tests were also carried out in the site as part of subsurface investigation and in this study a new correlation between V s and corrected SPT-N values was also developed. Apart from carrying out site characterization, low strain soil stiffness profile was evaluated based on SPT and MASW data. In this work, seismic site characterization at the macro-level was also carried out. As it is not physically and economically viable to carry out geotechnical and geophysical testing for such a large area, like the Karnataka state, the seismic site characterization was carried out based on topographic slope maps. Wald & Allen (2007) has reported that the topographic slope is a perfect indicator of site conditions. Based on the correlation studies carried out for different regions, Wald & Allen (2007) has proposed slope ranges corresponding to each site class. In this study, the topographic map for the entire state of Karnataka was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model GDEM. This thesis also presents a comparison study between the Vs30map generated from topographic slope data and Vs30map developed using geophysical field tests, for Bangalore and Chennai. Based on this study, it is concluded that topographic slopes can be used for developing Vs30maps for meso and macro-level with reasonable accuracy. The topographic map for macro-level was generated at a grid size of 0.05◦ × 0.05◦. Based on the value of slope at a particular grid point, the Vs30for that grid point was assigned as per Wald & Allen (2007). A similar procedure was repeated for all the grid points. Spatial variation of various seismic site classes for the macro-level has been presented in this work. The site amplification hazard was estimated for both micro and the macro-level. The assessment of site amplification is very important for shallow founded structures and other geotechnical structures like retaining walls and dams, floating piles and underground structures as the possible earthquake damages are mostly due to extensive shaking. The site amplification hazard at the micro-level was estimated using 1D equivalent linear ground response analyses. The earthquake motion required for carrying out ground response analysis was simulated from a target response spectrum. 1D equivalent linear analyses were performed using SHAKE 2000 software. Spatial variations of surface level PHA values, site amplification, predominant frequency throughout the study area are presented in this work. As it is not physically viable to assess site amplification hazard at the macro-level using the 1D ground response analysis, the surface level PHA value for the entire state of Karnataka was estimated using a non-linear site amplification technique pro-posed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). Based on the site class in which particular grid belongs and bedrock level PHA value, the amplification for that grid point was evaluated using regression equations developed by Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007). The liquefaction hazard both at the micro and macro-level was evaluated and included in this thesis. The micro-level liquefaction hazard was estimated in terms of liquefaction potential index (LPI) based on SPTN values (Iwasaki et al., 1982). As the LPI was evaluated by integrating the factor of safety against liquefaction (FSL) at all depths, it can effectively represent the liquefaction susceptibility of the soil column. LPI at the micro-level was evaluated by both deterministic as well as the probabilistic approaches. In the deterministic approach, the FSLat a particular depth was evaluated as the ratio of the cyclic resistance of the soil layer to the cyclic stress induced by earth-quake motion. The cyclic stress was estimated as per Seed & Idriss (1971), while the cyclic soil resistance was characterised from the corrected SPT-N values as proposed by Idriss & Boulanger (2006). However in the probabilistic method, the mean annual rate of exceedance (MARE) of factor of safety against liquefaction at different depth was estimated using SPT field test data by considering all uncertainties. From the MARE curve, the FS L for 475 year and 2500 year return period were evaluated. Once FS L at different depth were evaluated, the LPI for the borehole is calculated by integrating FS L for all depths. The liquefaction hazard at the macro-level was estimated in terms of SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction at 3 m depth, using a probabilistic approach. The probabilistic approach accounts the contribution of several magnitudes acceleration scenarios on the liquefaction potential at a given site. Based on the methodology proposed by Kramer & Mayfield (2007), SPT and CPT values required to resist liquefaction corresponding to return periods of 475 years and 2500 years were evaluated at the macro-level. It has been observed that the spatial distribution of intensity of each these hazard in a region is distinct from the other due to the predominant influence of local geological conditions rather than the source characteristics of the earthquake. Hence it’ll be difficult to assess risk and vulnerability of a region when these hazards are treated separately. Thus, all major earthquake hazards are to be integrated to an index number, which effectively represents the combined effect of all hazards. In the present study, all major earthquake hazards were integrated to a hazard index value, both at the micro as well as macro-level using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) proposed by Saaty (1980). Both micro and macro-level seismic zonation was performed based on the spatial distribution of hazard index value. This thesis also presents the assessment of earthquake induced landslides at the macro-level in the appendix. Landslide hazards are a major natural disaster that affects most of the hilly regions around the world. This is a first attempt of it kind to evaluate seismically induced landslide hazard at the macro-level in a quantitative manner. Landslide hazard was assessed based on Newmark’s method (Newmark, 1965). The Newmark’s model considers the slope at the verge of failure and is modelled as a rigid block sliding along an incline plane under the influence of a threshold acceleration. The value of threshold acceleration depends upon the static factor of safety and slope angle. At the macro-level, the slope map for the entire state of Karnataka was derived from ASTER GDEM, considering a grid size of 50 m × 50 m. The earthquake motion which induces driving force on the slope to destabilize it was evaluated for each grid point with slope value 10 degree and above using DSHA. Knowing the slope value and peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at a grid point, the seismic landslide hazard in terms of static factor of safety required to resist landslide was evaluated using Newmark’s method. This procedure is repeated for all grid points, having slope value 10 degree and above.