<p>The thesis aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrology of four semi-urban watersheds in southern Ontario. The study is mainly concerned with future changes in climate variables and flow regimes. The study also assesses future changes in the frequency and magnitude of peak and low flows. The hydrologic effects of climate change were assessed using a couple of climate and hydrological models. Three regional climate models (RCMs), namely, Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), United States Regional Climate Model 3 (RCM3), United Kingdom Hadley Regional Model 3 (HRM3) were used to extract raw climate variables. The raw RCM data were corrected using a bias correction method. The method performance statistics and the nonparametric test results revealed that the bias corrected climate variables followed the patterns of the observed climate variables for all weather stations. Future climate scenario was then simulated and analyses show increases in annual precipitation about 5-8% and increases in mean annual daily mean temperature about 2.6-3.2 oC. Three hydrological models (namely HBV, MAC-HBV, and SAC-SMA) were used for flow simulation. The models' validation results show a good agreement with the observed flow with a Nash Sutcliffe efficiency around 0.49-0.75 and a correlation coefficient of around 0.7-0.8 for all sub-basins. The three hydrologic models coupled with the bias corrected RCMs data were used to simulate current and future flow. For future period (2050s), the models predicted increasing winter flow and decreasing spring, summer and autumn flows. Mean annual flow shows slight to moderate changes. Significant increases in peak and low flow magnitude are predicted for higher return periods (20-100 years). Overall, the effects of projected future changes in precipitation and temperature clearly govern the significant changes in seasonal and annual flows, peak and low flow magnitudes and frequencies. Using three hydrologic and three climate models projections, a comprehensive picture of probable hydrologic impact of climate change was assessed in the study area. The wide range of predicted changes will have significant implications for future water resources development in the selected semi-urban watersheds.</p> / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

The need to transform education from its apartheid past resulted in the introduction of school governing bodies (SGBs). SGBs are democratic structures that allow for stakeholder participation in school matters in line with the demands of the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa. Section 21 of the South African Schools Act (SASA) (84 of 1996) stipulates specific functions for SGBs. These functions are allocated only on the basis of significant growth in the performance of an SGB. SGBs must apply to be allocated these functions, after satisfying themselves first that they can self–manage their school, and after the MEC has certified the said performance. Schools in the Mpumalanga province were all allocated these functions simultaneously without applying for them. One of the functions that SGBs perform is the establishment and administration of school funds. Because schools are state institutions, SGBs are expected by law to be accountable for the funds they manage. They must account to all stakeholders who contribute to the school fund. To be able to administer the funds, as well as to give proper accountability thereof, SGBs need to have particular financial management and accounting skills. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which SGBs are able to account to stakeholders for the school funds they manage. The study further investigated whether the kind of accountability given to parents and the state is “hard” or “soft”. A case study involving three schools: a rural school, a semi-urban school and an urban school, was conducted. SGB members of these schools and officials from the department of education were interviewed for information and also to solicit their opinion on current financial accountability processes. An analysis of official SGB documents was also conducted to strengthen the information gathered through interviews. It has emerged from the findings of the study that some SGBs in Mpumalanga are still experiencing difficulties in following the correct procedures in giving a financial account to parents and the state. There is an indication from the study that capacity to handle finances is still a big challenge for schools that are not in the rich quintile. / Dissertation (MEd (Education Management))--University of Pretoria, 2007. / Education Management and Policy Studies / MEd / unrestricted

The primary goal of this research is to evaluate and identify proper calibration approaches, skillful hydrological models, and suitable weather forecast inputs to improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrological forecasting in different types of watersheds. The research started by formulating an approach that examined single- and multi-site, and single- and multi-objective optimization methods for calibrating an event-based hydrological model to improve flood prediction in a semi-urban catchment. Then it assessed whether reservoir inflow in a large complex watershed could be accurately and reliably forecasted by simple lumped, medium-level distributed, or advanced land-surface based hydrological models. Then it is followed by a comparison of multiple combinations of hydrological models and weather forecast inputs to identify the best possible model-input integration for an enhanced short-range flood forecasting in a semi-urban catchment. In the end, Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) with different spatial and temporal resolutions were evaluated across Canada’s varied geographical environments to find candidate precipitation input products for improved flood forecasting. Results indicated that aggregating the objective functions across multiple sites into a single objective function provided better representative parameter sets of a semi-distributed hydrological model for an enhanced peak flow simulation. Proficient lumped hydrological models with proper forecast inputs appeared to show better hydrological forecast performance than distributed and land-surface models in two distinct watersheds. For example, forcing the simple lumped model (SACSMA) with bias-corrected ensemble inputs offered a reliable reservoir inflow forecast in a sizeable complex Prairie watershed; and a combination of the lumped model (MACHBV) with the high-resolution weather forecast input (HRDPS) provided skillful and economically viable short-term flood forecasts in a small semi-urban catchment. The comprehensive verification has identified low-resolution NWPs (GEFSv2 and GFS) over Western and Central parts of Canada and high-resolution NWPs (HRRR and HRDPS) in Southern Ontario regions that have a promising potential for forecasting the timing, intensity, and volume of floods. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Accurate hydrological models and inputs play essential roles in creating a successful flood forecasting and early warning system. The main objective of this research is to identify adequately calibrated hydrological models and skillful weather forecast inputs to improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting in various watershed landscapes. The key contributions include: (1) A finding that a combination of efficient optimization tools with a series of calibration steps is essential in obtaining representative parameters sets of hydrological models; (2) Simple lumped hydrological models, if used appropriately, can provide accurate and reliable hydrological forecasts in different watershed types, besides being computationally efficient; and (3) Candidate weather forecast products identified in Canada’s diverse geographical regions can be used as inputs to hydrological models for improved flood forecasting. The findings from this thesis are expected to benefit hydrological forecasting centers and researchers working on model and input improvements.

This research aimed to investigate an area of research that has largely been overlooked in the past, that is, the efficiency, profitability and sustainability of informal waste recycling in semi-urban areas. In exploring the research topic, a recycling buyback centre was used as a case study. The centre facilitates collection, sorting and selling of waste and is located in Senwabarwana, Northern Limpopo Province. Here the P.E.A.C.E (Planning, Education, Agriculture, Cooperatives and Environment) Foundation, an organisation looking at rural poverty alleviation in South Africa, initiated a flagship recycling buyback centre as a community project. This research picks up on prior research that was conducted on a similar project initiated by the same organisation in Ndumo, KwaZulu Natal. Even though the location is different from KwaZulu Natal, both Senwabarwana and Ndumo are faced with similar challenges affecting social, economic and environmental circumstances. Five objectives were identified to provide structure to this research. Through action research, the study assessed the sustainability of this recycling buyback centre with regard to the impact on social, economic and environmental factors within Senwabarwana. It also covered problems experienced in rolling out waste management initiatives within the semi-urban study location and assessed the municipal framework with regard to waste and how waste is managed and recycled. Furthermore, analyses of the waste data generated at the recycling centre was examined that culminated in offering solutions to the identified problems. Recommendations for acceptable practices in semi-urban waste management are made to enable further research and potentially up-scaling the project for application in other geographic areas. The study reports both qualitative and quantitative data collected through the investigation of the case study in the start-up phase. The data gathering was done through administering questionnaires to waste pickers associated with the case study centre. Telephonic and face-to-face interviews and secondary data were interchangeably used to address each of the five objectives. The results from the data gathered show that, if properly coordinated and structured, informal waste recycling in semi-urban communities is possible and can contribute positively to the socio-economic and environmental development of these areas. It is envisaged that this study would contribute to the body of knowledge already in existence, whilst also creating an opportunity for further academic research and input within this field to enable the scaling-up of such initiatives. / Environmental Sciences / M. Sc. (Environmental Science)