The research project reported in this thesis considers Multiple Distributed Replications in Parallel (MDRIP), a hybrid approach to parallelisation of quantitative stochastic discrete-event simulation. Parallel Discrete-Event Simulation (PDES) generally covers distributed simulation or simulation with replicated trials. Distributed simulation requires model partitioning and synchronisation among submodels. Simulation with replicated trials can be executed on-line by applying Multiple Replications in Parallel (MRIP). MDRIP has been proposed for overcoming problems related to the large size of simulated models and their complexity, as well as with the problem of controlling the accuracy of the final simulation results. A survey of PDES investigates several primary issues which are directly related to the parallelisation of DES. A secondary issue related to implementation efficiency is also covered. Statistical analysis as a supporting issue is described. The AKAROA2 package is an implementation of making such supporting issue effortless. Existing solutions proposed for PDES have exclusively focused on collecting of output data during simulation and conducting analysis of these data when simulation is finished. Such off-line statistical analysis of output data offers no control of statistical errors of the final estimates. On-line control of statistical errors during simulation has been successfully implemented in AKAROA2, an automated controller of output data analysis during simulation executed in MRIP. However, AKAROA2 cannot be applied directly to distributed simulation. This thesis reports results of a research project aimed at employing AKAROA2 for launching multiple replications of distributed simulation models and for on-line sequential control of statistical errors associated with a distributed performance measure; i.e. with a performance measure which depends on output data being generated by a number of submodels of distributed simulation. We report changes required in the architecture of AKAROA2 to make MDRIP possible. A new MDRIP-related component of AKAROA2, a distributed simulation engine mdrip engine, is introduced. Stochastic simulation in its MDRIP version, as implemented in AKAROA2, has been tested in a number of simulation scenarios. We discuss two specific simulation models employed in our tests: (i) a model consisting of independent queues, and (ii) a queueing network consisting of tandem connection of queueing systems. In the first case, we look at the correctness of message orderings from the distributed messages. In the second case, we look at the correctness of output data analysis when the analysed performance measures require data from all submodels of a given (distributed) simulation model. Our tests confirm correctness of our mdrip engine design in the cases considered; i.e. in models in which causality errors do not occur. However, we argue that the same design principles should be applicable in the case of distributed simulation models with (potential) causality errors.

Reliability worth analysis is an important tool for distribution systems planning and operations. The interruption cost model used in the analysis directly affects the accuracy of the reliability worth evaluation. In this dissertation, the reliability worth analysis was dealt with two interruption cost models including an average or aggregated model (AAM), and a probabilistic distribution model (PDM) in two phases. In the first phase, the dissertation presents a reliability cost model based AAM for distribution system planning. The reliability cost model has been derived as a linear function of line flows for evaluating the outages. The objective is to minimize the total cost including the outage cost, feeder resistive loss, and fixed investment cost. The Evolutionary Programming (EP) was used to solve the very complicated mixed-integer, highly non-linear, and non-differential problem. A real distribution network was modeled as the sample system for tests. There is also a higher opportunity to obtain the global optimum during the EP process. In the second phase, the interruption cost model PDM was proposed by using the radial basis function (RBF) neural network with orthogonal least-squares (OLS) learning method. The residential and industrial interruption costs in PDM were integrated by the proposed neural network technique. A Monte-Carlo time sequential simulation technique was adopted for worth assessment. The technique is tested by evaluating the reliability worth of a Taipower system for the installation of disconnected switches, lateral fuses, transformers and alternative supplies. The results show that the two cost models result in very different interruption costs, and PDM may be more realistic in modeling the system.

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Tesis por compendio / The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is nowadays recognized as an excellent inverse method for hydraulic conductivity characterization using transient piezometric head data. and it is proved that the EnKF is computationally efficient and capable of handling large fields compared to other inverse methods. However, it is needed a large ensemble size (Chen and Zhang, 2006) to get a high quality estimation, which means a lots of computation time. Parallel computing is an efficient alterative method to reduce the commutation time. Besides, although the EnKF is good accounting for the non linearities of the state equation, it fails when dealing with non-Gaussian distribution fields. Recently, many methods are developed trying to adapt the EnKF to non-Gaussian distributions(detailed in the History and present state chapter). Zhou et al. (2011, 2012) have proposed a Normal-Score Ensemble Kalman Filter (NS-EnKF) to character the non-Gaussian distributed conductivity fields, and already showed that transient piezometric head was enough for hydraulic conductivity characterization if a training image for the hydraulic conductivity was available. Then in this work, we will show that, when without such a training image but with enough transient piezometric head information, the performance of the updated ensemble of realizations in the characterization of the non-Gaussian reference field. In the end, we will introduce a new method for parameterizing geostatistical models coupling with the NS-EnKF in the characterization of a Heterogenous non-Gaussian hydraulic conductivity field. So, this doctor thesis is mainly including three parts, and the name of the parts as below. 1, Parallelized Ensemble Kalman Filter for Hydraulic Conductivity Characterization. 2, The Power of Transient Piezometric Head Data in Inverse Modeling: An Application of the Localized Normal-score EnKF with Covariance Inflation in a Heterogenous Bimodal Hydraulic Conductivity Field. 3, Parameterizing geostatistical models coupling with the NS-EnKF for Heterogenous Bimodal Hydraulic Conductivity characterization. / Xu, T. (2014). Ensemble Kalman filtering for hydraulic conductivity characterization: Parallelization and non-Gaussianity [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/43769 / Compendio